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FedEx Corporation
“THE WORLD ON TIME”
NYSE: FDX
Stock Pitch Competition
Saturday, March 14th, 2015
Ashwin Anant: Equity Analyst at Brock Finance & Investment
Group
Stock Quote
Data
Friday, March 13th,
2015
Current Price $173.32 (6% 52WH)
52 Week High $183.51
52 Week Low $130.64
TTM P/E 22.90x
Market Cap $49 Billion
Dividend Yield 0.45%
Outstanding Shares 283.31 M
LTM EPS $7.93
Beta 1.15
CEO: Frederick W. Smith
• Founded company in 1971
• Served as board of governors of many
public companies
• Recipient of Global Leadership Award
Executive VP & CFO: Alan B. Graf, Jr.
• Joined the company as a financial analyst
in 1980
• Served as executive VP and CFO of
FedEx Express until 1998
T, Michael Glenn: Executive VP,
Market Development and Corporate
Communications
• Joined FedEx in 1981
• Serves president and Co-CEO of FedEx
Corporate services and is on the
Executive Committee
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Management
Headquarters: Memphis,
Tennessee
Recommendation: Hold
Target Price: $178.46
Target Entry Point: $152.53
Company Overview
Market leader in international express transportation and
delivery; First founded in 1971 as an express transportation
company (FedEx Express)
Evolved into a large-cap holding company which owns and
operates four business segments; FedEx Express, FedEx Ground,
FedEx Freight, FedEx Services
Incorporated in 1998 in Delaware as FedEx Corporation; FedEx
Trade Networks has expanded to 13 new countries in Europe,
Africa, Asia and Latin America
Provides logistics services, package delivery and supply chain
management to over 220 countries in the world that make up
90% of the world’s GDP
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
CoreBusiness/OperatingSegments
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Employs 55000 vehicles including 650 aircraft
Provides door-to-door delivery service, time-definite delivery
Offers temperature controlled delivery, overnight delivery & urgent delivery
Operates 42000 vehicles owned by third-parties, and 44,000 company owned
trailers
Transitioned to the ISP business model to lower liability, add new routes
FedEx Smartpost delivers low-weight, cost efficient packages using USPS
Serves 100% of all US residential locations and businesses, offers money-back
guarantees
Owns 62,000 vehicles
Provides the fastest LTL service in the North American market
Improves cost and time efficiency through FedEx electronic solutions
Provides sales, marketing, IT solutions, and administrative services
Offers FedEx Mobile and FedEx Office apps allow users to track their product
shipping status
Pack Plus provides customized packaging and shipping
Macro-economic Catalysts
• Globalization
• Slow growth in emerging markets still outpaces
developed nations
• E-commerce
• E-commerce sales made up 6.5% of total retail
sales in 2014, up from 5.8% in 2013
• E-commerce sales increased by 15.4% in 2014
• Technology & Real-time Data
• Website & mobile app enables shipping tracking
in real time data & customization of shipping
needs
• Innovation in Inventory Management
• Just-in-time purchasing has improved time and
cost efficiency in supply chain management
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce- US
Census Bureau News
World Bank:
GDP Growth (%)
2010 2011 2012 2013
United States 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2
Canada 3.4 2.5 1.7 2.0
China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7
India 10.3 6.6 4.7 5.0
Source: World Bank
Strengths
Strong brand and global presence
Experienced Management team
Emphasis on customer loyalty initiatives; e.g., 15%
discount for customers with FedEx online account
Track record of quality, timely service
Weaknesses
Seasonality of business performance
FedEx lags behind UPS in terms of size and market
share
Reliance on US market and domestic demand
Opportunities
Seven year deal with US Postal Service to boost
revenue growth
Crude Oil Prices have slashed by 50%
Sponsorship of PGA Golf and NFL sporting events
Inflation will help boost consumer spending
Acquisitions
Threats
Strong US Dollar could negatively impact profits
Subject to posting regulations and customs
restrictions when shipping internationally
Shift in demand from Priority shipping to cheaper
Economy shipping
Low fuel prices could result in lower offsetting fuel
surcharges
Indirect competition (Amazon Prime Air)
Situational Analysis
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Qualitative Comparison:FEDEXVS UPS
• Segregation of business operations
allows each business segment to be
managed independently which improves
operating efficiency
• Handles an average of 9 Million
packages per day
• Strong balance sheet with lower leverage
• Potential for dividend increases & CAPEX
with strong operating cash flow
• Operates 650 aircraft fleet
• Integrates all types of delivery service
within one network as opposed to
separate segments
• Handles an average of 16 Million
packages per day
• Their 2.68% dividend may not be
sustainable with their current debt
levels at over 292% of operating cash
flow
• Operates 531 aircraft fleet
• Less foreign exposure (25% international
revenues, compared to 30% for FedEx)
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Projection Period
2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E
Sales 47,389 49,284 51,254 53,048 54,905
% growth 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50%
Less: Cost of Revenue 13,070 13,593 14,137 14,631 15,143
Gross Profit 34,318 35,690 37,117 38,417 39,761
% Margin 72.42% 72.42% 72.42% 72.42% 72.42%
Less: Operating Expenses 28,044 29,165 30,332 31,393 32,492
EBITDA 6,274 6,525 6,786 7,023 7,269
% Margin 13.24% 13.24% 13.24% 13.24% 13.24%
Depreciation & Amortization 2,690 2,809 2,921 3,024 3,130
EBIT 3,584 3,716 3,864 4,000 4,140
% margin 7.56% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54%
Taxes 1,326 1,375 1,430 1,480 1,532
Earnings before interest after taxes 2,258 2,341 2,435 2,520 2,608
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 2,690 2,809 2,921 3,024 3,130
Plus: Other Non-cash Expenses 861 896 931 964 998
Less: Capital Expenditures 3,933 4,091 4,254 4,403 4,557
Less: Change in NWC 250 -49 -50 -46 -48
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,126 1,907 1,983 2,059 2,131
WACC
Discount Period 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Discount Factor 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.69
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 1,975 1,645 1,589 1,532 1,473
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Debt 4,735 Cost of Equity (CAPM):
Equity 15,563
Risk Free Rate (Avg Daily Yield for 2014 5-
year T-bills) 1.64%
Levered Beta 1.15
Debt-to-Cap 23.33% Risk Premium 6%
Equity-to-Cap 76.67% Size Premium 1.20%
D/E 30.42% Cost of Equity 9.77%
Cost of Debt 2.01% WACC 7.66%
Tax Rate 36.60%
After-tax cost of
Debt 0.73%
Cumulative Present Value of
FCF 8,214.23 Enterprise Value $53,447.5
Less: Total Debt 4,735.00
Terminal Value Less: Preferred Securities 0.00
Terminal Year EBITDA (2018E) 7,269.28 Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0.00
Exit Multiple 9.0x
Plus: Cash and Cash
Equivalents 2,266.0
Terminal Value 65,423.54
Discount Factor 0.69 Implied Equity Value $50,978.5
Present Value of Terminal Value 45,233.23
% of Enterprise Value 84.6%
Implied Diluted Shares
Outstanding 283.31
Enterprise Value 53,447.46 Implied Share Price $179.94
ComparableCompaniesData(DataCurrentasofFeb26,2015)
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Category Metric FedEx UPS TNT Express
Deutsche
Post AG
Industry
Average
Performance
Metrics
ROE 14.10% 80.80% -8.50% 24.90% 27.83%
ROA 7.00% 10.20% -4.60% 6.40% 4.75%
Dividend Yield 0.50% 2.60% 1.10% 2.65% 1.71%
Return on Inv. Cap. 9% 23.30% -6.60% Nil 8.57%
Leverage
Debt to Equity 30.42% 168.50% 9.90% 60.30% 67.28%
Cash flow to Debt 45.43% 34.21% N/A N/A
Debt/Total Assets 14.35% 34.12% 5.1% 16.7% 17.57%
Valuation
NTM P/E 17.98 19.71 17.5 17.69 18.22
P/B 3.22 16.45 1.37 4.34 6.35
P/Free Cash Flow 48.3 20.8 Nil 31.1 33.40
EV/EBITDA 8.22 14.7 Nil 9.1 10.67
Liquidity
Current Ratio 1.78 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.50
Quick Ratio 1.69 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.27
A/R Turnover 8.5 10 6.8 7.7 8.25
• FedEx is undervalued by most metrics relative to its major rivals in the logistics industry
• FedEx compares favourably to its peers in terms of liquidity and relatively low leverage ratios
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Industry Average
Price/Free Cash Flow
33.40
Free Cash Flow/Share 2.38
Price Target $79.49
Industry Average EV/EBITDA 10.67
2015E EBITDA(based on projected
revenue growth of 4.75%)
7,269
Enterprise Value 77,587
Less: Total Debt 4,735.00
Less: Preferred Securities 0
Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,266.00
Implied Equity Value 75,118
Implied Diluted Shares Outstanding 283.31
Implied Share Price 265.15
Industry Average NTM P/E 18.22
NTM Consensus Target EPS 9.9
Price Target 180.38
UPSIDE: 2.97% (As of March 13th, 2015: Price = $173.32)
RECOMMENDATION: HOLD
70%
Price Target:
$178.46
DCF Price Target:
$179.94
EV/EBITDA Price Target:
$265.15
P/E Price Target:
$180.38
P/Free Cash Flow Price Target:
$79.49
Weightage Upside
70% 3.90%
10% 53.10%
10% 4.15%
10% -54.10%
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Forward looking Strategies
• Meet their $8.00-$9.50 EPS target for the year ended May 31,
2015
• Direct their CAPEX spending towards aircraft modernization,
fuel-efficient vehicles, acquisitions
• Use technology to speed up package sorting and delivery
processes
• Price parcels on a dimensional-weight basis
• Cater to vertical industries such as automobile and healthcare
• Continue to leverage their brand presence and user-friendly
services to retain customer loyalty
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
FedEx has beat the S&P 500 by 17% points over the last
year
Hold & Buy after 17% correction in stock price
Target Entry Point = $178.46/1.17= $152.53
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Source:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=FDX&t=BAR&size=M&v=1&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&tem
plate=
Thank You
Financial Performance
2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015 (YTD)
Total Revenue 42,680 44,287 45,567 23,623
Operating Expenses 39,494 41,736 42,121 21,623
Operating Income 3,186 2,551 3,446 2,000
Other Income -45 -96 -157 -92
Income before Tax 3,141 2,455 3,289 1,908
Income Tax 1,109 894 1,192 686
Net Income $ 2,032 $ 1,561 $ 2,097 $ 1,222
Diluted EPS $ 6.41 $ 4.91 $ 6.75 $ 4.24
Weighted Average
Common Shares 315 315 307 284
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC
Price Target79.9 5.66% 6.66% 7.66% 8.66% 9.66%
7.0 158.28 151.18 144.46 138.10 132.06
8.0 177.76 169.77 162.20 155.03 148.24
EV/EBITDA 9.0 197.25 188.35 179.94 171.97 164.42
10.0 216.73 206.94 197.68 188.91 180.60
11.0 236.21 225.53 215.42 205.85 196.78
Source: FedEx 2014 10k Annual
Report, Pg. 30
59%25%
13% 3%
RevenueBreakdown
FedEx Express
FedEx Ground
FedEx Freight
FedEx Services
SELECTED STATISTICS 2012 2013 2014 Q2 YTD 2015
Operating Margin 7.5% 5.8% 7.6% 8.5%
Pretax Margin 7.4% 5.5% 7.2% 8.1%
Return on Assets3 7.1% 4.9% 6.3% 7.0%
Return on Equity3 13.6% 9.7% 12.8% 14.1%
Dividends Paid Per Common Share $ 0.52 $ 0.56 $ 0.60 $ 0.40
–
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
%
Performance Metrics
Return on Equity
Operating Margin
Year
Return on Assets
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
CAPEX
CAPEX Spending
CAPEX($M)
FY Ended
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
$ 26,515 $ 27,171 $ 27,121
9,573 10,578 11,617
5,282 5,401 5,757
1,671 1,580 1,536
–
$ 5,000
$ 10,000
$ 15,000
$ 20,000
$ 25,000
$ 30,000
2012 2013 2014
FedEx Express FedEx Ground FedEx Freight FedEx Services
2012-2014 Revenues by Segment
Revenue($M)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000 EBITDA
FY Ended
EBITDA($M) EBITDA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$M
As at Year End
Cash
Debt
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
FedEx Express
Annual Shipment Statistics
FY 2012 – FY 2015
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Q2 YTD
FY15
AVG DAILY VOLUME / POUNDS
Average Daily Package Volume
(000s):
U.S. Overnight Box 1,146 1,134 1,164 1,235
U.S. Overnight Envelope 586 574 538 524
Total U.S. Overnight 1,732 1,708 1,702 1,759
U.S. Deferred 845 835 869 880
Total U.S. Packages 2,577 2,543 2,571 2,639
International Priority 421 421 410 417
International Economy 138 155 170 175
Total International Export
Packages 559 576 580 592
International Domestic1 495 785 819 866
Total Avg Daily Packages 3,631 3,904 3,970 4,097
Average Daily Freight Pounds
(000s):
U.S. 7,487 7,612 7,854 7,676
International Priority 3,303 3,048 2,922 2,887
International Airfreight 1,171 1,066 798 650
Total Avg Daily Freight Pounds 11,961 11,726 11,574 11,213
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Q2 YTD
FY15
FedEx
Ground
Total Package Volume
(000s) 1,000,099 1,076,709 1,165,217 598,076
Average Daily Package Volume
(000s) 3,907 4,222 4,588 4,709
9
Yield (Revenue Per
Package) $ 8.77 $ 8.94 $ 9.10 $ 9.25
Average Daily YOY Volume Growth
Rate 4.3% 8.1% 8.7% 5.4%
FedEx SmartPost
Total Package Volume
(000s) 433,042 522,726 550,745 253,955
Average Daily Package Volume
(000s) 1,692 2,058 2,186 2,000
Yield (Revenue Per
Package) $ 1.81 $ 1.77 $ 1.78 $ 1.87
Average Daily YOY Volume Growth
Rate 18.2% 21.6% 6.2% (7.2%)
FedEx Freight
Annual LTL Shipment Statistics
FY 2012 – FY 2015
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q2 YTD FY15
Shipments Per Day
Priority 60,345 59,280 62,868 69,526
Economy 24,511 26,370 27,687 29,230
Total shipments per day 84,856 85,650 90,555 98,756
Weight Per LTL Shipment (lbs)
Priority 1,202 1,237 1,262 1,251
Economy 1,045 990 1,000 1,012
Composite Weight per
LTL Shipment 1,156 1,161 1,182 1,180
• Analyst Coverage
• ACCOUNTABILITY
• ARGUS RESEARCH
• B OF A M L
• BAIRD R W
• BARCLAYS CAPITA
• BB & T CAPITAL
• DEUTSCHE BK SEC
• EDWARD JONES
• MACQUARIE CAPIT
• MORGAN STANLEY
• OPPENHEIMER HLD
• RAYMOND JAMES
• STIFEL NICOLAUS
• UBS
• WILLIAM BLAIR
Average Consensus Price Target: $192.50
12 Analysts Rated “Strong Buy”
7 Analysts Rated “Hold”
Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix

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FedEx Stock Presentation

  • 1. FedEx Corporation “THE WORLD ON TIME” NYSE: FDX Stock Pitch Competition Saturday, March 14th, 2015 Ashwin Anant: Equity Analyst at Brock Finance & Investment Group
  • 2. Stock Quote Data Friday, March 13th, 2015 Current Price $173.32 (6% 52WH) 52 Week High $183.51 52 Week Low $130.64 TTM P/E 22.90x Market Cap $49 Billion Dividend Yield 0.45% Outstanding Shares 283.31 M LTM EPS $7.93 Beta 1.15 CEO: Frederick W. Smith • Founded company in 1971 • Served as board of governors of many public companies • Recipient of Global Leadership Award Executive VP & CFO: Alan B. Graf, Jr. • Joined the company as a financial analyst in 1980 • Served as executive VP and CFO of FedEx Express until 1998 T, Michael Glenn: Executive VP, Market Development and Corporate Communications • Joined FedEx in 1981 • Serves president and Co-CEO of FedEx Corporate services and is on the Executive Committee Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Management Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee Recommendation: Hold Target Price: $178.46 Target Entry Point: $152.53
  • 3. Company Overview Market leader in international express transportation and delivery; First founded in 1971 as an express transportation company (FedEx Express) Evolved into a large-cap holding company which owns and operates four business segments; FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, FedEx Freight, FedEx Services Incorporated in 1998 in Delaware as FedEx Corporation; FedEx Trade Networks has expanded to 13 new countries in Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America Provides logistics services, package delivery and supply chain management to over 220 countries in the world that make up 90% of the world’s GDP Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
  • 4. CoreBusiness/OperatingSegments Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Employs 55000 vehicles including 650 aircraft Provides door-to-door delivery service, time-definite delivery Offers temperature controlled delivery, overnight delivery & urgent delivery Operates 42000 vehicles owned by third-parties, and 44,000 company owned trailers Transitioned to the ISP business model to lower liability, add new routes FedEx Smartpost delivers low-weight, cost efficient packages using USPS Serves 100% of all US residential locations and businesses, offers money-back guarantees Owns 62,000 vehicles Provides the fastest LTL service in the North American market Improves cost and time efficiency through FedEx electronic solutions Provides sales, marketing, IT solutions, and administrative services Offers FedEx Mobile and FedEx Office apps allow users to track their product shipping status Pack Plus provides customized packaging and shipping
  • 5. Macro-economic Catalysts • Globalization • Slow growth in emerging markets still outpaces developed nations • E-commerce • E-commerce sales made up 6.5% of total retail sales in 2014, up from 5.8% in 2013 • E-commerce sales increased by 15.4% in 2014 • Technology & Real-time Data • Website & mobile app enables shipping tracking in real time data & customization of shipping needs • Innovation in Inventory Management • Just-in-time purchasing has improved time and cost efficiency in supply chain management Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Source: U.S. Department of Commerce- US Census Bureau News World Bank: GDP Growth (%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 United States 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 Canada 3.4 2.5 1.7 2.0 China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7 India 10.3 6.6 4.7 5.0 Source: World Bank
  • 6. Strengths Strong brand and global presence Experienced Management team Emphasis on customer loyalty initiatives; e.g., 15% discount for customers with FedEx online account Track record of quality, timely service Weaknesses Seasonality of business performance FedEx lags behind UPS in terms of size and market share Reliance on US market and domestic demand Opportunities Seven year deal with US Postal Service to boost revenue growth Crude Oil Prices have slashed by 50% Sponsorship of PGA Golf and NFL sporting events Inflation will help boost consumer spending Acquisitions Threats Strong US Dollar could negatively impact profits Subject to posting regulations and customs restrictions when shipping internationally Shift in demand from Priority shipping to cheaper Economy shipping Low fuel prices could result in lower offsetting fuel surcharges Indirect competition (Amazon Prime Air) Situational Analysis Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
  • 7. Qualitative Comparison:FEDEXVS UPS • Segregation of business operations allows each business segment to be managed independently which improves operating efficiency • Handles an average of 9 Million packages per day • Strong balance sheet with lower leverage • Potential for dividend increases & CAPEX with strong operating cash flow • Operates 650 aircraft fleet • Integrates all types of delivery service within one network as opposed to separate segments • Handles an average of 16 Million packages per day • Their 2.68% dividend may not be sustainable with their current debt levels at over 292% of operating cash flow • Operates 531 aircraft fleet • Less foreign exposure (25% international revenues, compared to 30% for FedEx) Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
  • 8. Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Projection Period 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E Sales 47,389 49,284 51,254 53,048 54,905 % growth 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% Less: Cost of Revenue 13,070 13,593 14,137 14,631 15,143 Gross Profit 34,318 35,690 37,117 38,417 39,761 % Margin 72.42% 72.42% 72.42% 72.42% 72.42% Less: Operating Expenses 28,044 29,165 30,332 31,393 32,492 EBITDA 6,274 6,525 6,786 7,023 7,269 % Margin 13.24% 13.24% 13.24% 13.24% 13.24% Depreciation & Amortization 2,690 2,809 2,921 3,024 3,130 EBIT 3,584 3,716 3,864 4,000 4,140 % margin 7.56% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% 7.54% Taxes 1,326 1,375 1,430 1,480 1,532 Earnings before interest after taxes 2,258 2,341 2,435 2,520 2,608 Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 2,690 2,809 2,921 3,024 3,130 Plus: Other Non-cash Expenses 861 896 931 964 998 Less: Capital Expenditures 3,933 4,091 4,254 4,403 4,557 Less: Change in NWC 250 -49 -50 -46 -48 Unlevered Free Cash Flow 2,126 1,907 1,983 2,059 2,131 WACC Discount Period 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Discount Factor 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.74 0.69 Present Value of Free Cash Flow 1,975 1,645 1,589 1,532 1,473
  • 9. Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Debt 4,735 Cost of Equity (CAPM): Equity 15,563 Risk Free Rate (Avg Daily Yield for 2014 5- year T-bills) 1.64% Levered Beta 1.15 Debt-to-Cap 23.33% Risk Premium 6% Equity-to-Cap 76.67% Size Premium 1.20% D/E 30.42% Cost of Equity 9.77% Cost of Debt 2.01% WACC 7.66% Tax Rate 36.60% After-tax cost of Debt 0.73% Cumulative Present Value of FCF 8,214.23 Enterprise Value $53,447.5 Less: Total Debt 4,735.00 Terminal Value Less: Preferred Securities 0.00 Terminal Year EBITDA (2018E) 7,269.28 Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0.00 Exit Multiple 9.0x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,266.0 Terminal Value 65,423.54 Discount Factor 0.69 Implied Equity Value $50,978.5 Present Value of Terminal Value 45,233.23 % of Enterprise Value 84.6% Implied Diluted Shares Outstanding 283.31 Enterprise Value 53,447.46 Implied Share Price $179.94
  • 10. ComparableCompaniesData(DataCurrentasofFeb26,2015) Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Category Metric FedEx UPS TNT Express Deutsche Post AG Industry Average Performance Metrics ROE 14.10% 80.80% -8.50% 24.90% 27.83% ROA 7.00% 10.20% -4.60% 6.40% 4.75% Dividend Yield 0.50% 2.60% 1.10% 2.65% 1.71% Return on Inv. Cap. 9% 23.30% -6.60% Nil 8.57% Leverage Debt to Equity 30.42% 168.50% 9.90% 60.30% 67.28% Cash flow to Debt 45.43% 34.21% N/A N/A Debt/Total Assets 14.35% 34.12% 5.1% 16.7% 17.57% Valuation NTM P/E 17.98 19.71 17.5 17.69 18.22 P/B 3.22 16.45 1.37 4.34 6.35 P/Free Cash Flow 48.3 20.8 Nil 31.1 33.40 EV/EBITDA 8.22 14.7 Nil 9.1 10.67 Liquidity Current Ratio 1.78 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.50 Quick Ratio 1.69 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.27 A/R Turnover 8.5 10 6.8 7.7 8.25 • FedEx is undervalued by most metrics relative to its major rivals in the logistics industry • FedEx compares favourably to its peers in terms of liquidity and relatively low leverage ratios
  • 11. Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Industry Average Price/Free Cash Flow 33.40 Free Cash Flow/Share 2.38 Price Target $79.49 Industry Average EV/EBITDA 10.67 2015E EBITDA(based on projected revenue growth of 4.75%) 7,269 Enterprise Value 77,587 Less: Total Debt 4,735.00 Less: Preferred Securities 0 Less: Noncontrolling Interest 0 Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,266.00 Implied Equity Value 75,118 Implied Diluted Shares Outstanding 283.31 Implied Share Price 265.15 Industry Average NTM P/E 18.22 NTM Consensus Target EPS 9.9 Price Target 180.38
  • 12. UPSIDE: 2.97% (As of March 13th, 2015: Price = $173.32) RECOMMENDATION: HOLD 70% Price Target: $178.46 DCF Price Target: $179.94 EV/EBITDA Price Target: $265.15 P/E Price Target: $180.38 P/Free Cash Flow Price Target: $79.49 Weightage Upside 70% 3.90% 10% 53.10% 10% 4.15% 10% -54.10% Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
  • 13. Forward looking Strategies • Meet their $8.00-$9.50 EPS target for the year ended May 31, 2015 • Direct their CAPEX spending towards aircraft modernization, fuel-efficient vehicles, acquisitions • Use technology to speed up package sorting and delivery processes • Price parcels on a dimensional-weight basis • Cater to vertical industries such as automobile and healthcare • Continue to leverage their brand presence and user-friendly services to retain customer loyalty Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix
  • 14. FedEx has beat the S&P 500 by 17% points over the last year Hold & Buy after 17% correction in stock price Target Entry Point = $178.46/1.17= $152.53 Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Source: http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=FDX&t=BAR&size=M&v=1&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&tem plate=
  • 16. Financial Performance 2012 2013 2014 Q2 2015 (YTD) Total Revenue 42,680 44,287 45,567 23,623 Operating Expenses 39,494 41,736 42,121 21,623 Operating Income 3,186 2,551 3,446 2,000 Other Income -45 -96 -157 -92 Income before Tax 3,141 2,455 3,289 1,908 Income Tax 1,109 894 1,192 686 Net Income $ 2,032 $ 1,561 $ 2,097 $ 1,222 Diluted EPS $ 6.41 $ 4.91 $ 6.75 $ 4.24 Weighted Average Common Shares 315 315 307 284 Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix Sensitivity Analysis WACC Price Target79.9 5.66% 6.66% 7.66% 8.66% 9.66% 7.0 158.28 151.18 144.46 138.10 132.06 8.0 177.76 169.77 162.20 155.03 148.24 EV/EBITDA 9.0 197.25 188.35 179.94 171.97 164.42 10.0 216.73 206.94 197.68 188.91 180.60 11.0 236.21 225.53 215.42 205.85 196.78
  • 17. Source: FedEx 2014 10k Annual Report, Pg. 30 59%25% 13% 3% RevenueBreakdown FedEx Express FedEx Ground FedEx Freight FedEx Services
  • 18. SELECTED STATISTICS 2012 2013 2014 Q2 YTD 2015 Operating Margin 7.5% 5.8% 7.6% 8.5% Pretax Margin 7.4% 5.5% 7.2% 8.1% Return on Assets3 7.1% 4.9% 6.3% 7.0% Return on Equity3 13.6% 9.7% 12.8% 14.1% Dividends Paid Per Common Share $ 0.52 $ 0.56 $ 0.60 $ 0.40 – 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% % Performance Metrics Return on Equity Operating Margin Year Return on Assets Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 CAPEX CAPEX Spending CAPEX($M) FY Ended 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
  • 19. Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix $ 26,515 $ 27,171 $ 27,121 9,573 10,578 11,617 5,282 5,401 5,757 1,671 1,580 1,536 – $ 5,000 $ 10,000 $ 15,000 $ 20,000 $ 25,000 $ 30,000 2012 2013 2014 FedEx Express FedEx Ground FedEx Freight FedEx Services 2012-2014 Revenues by Segment Revenue($M) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 EBITDA FY Ended EBITDA($M) EBITDA 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $M As at Year End Cash Debt
  • 20. Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix FedEx Express Annual Shipment Statistics FY 2012 – FY 2015 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q2 YTD FY15 AVG DAILY VOLUME / POUNDS Average Daily Package Volume (000s): U.S. Overnight Box 1,146 1,134 1,164 1,235 U.S. Overnight Envelope 586 574 538 524 Total U.S. Overnight 1,732 1,708 1,702 1,759 U.S. Deferred 845 835 869 880 Total U.S. Packages 2,577 2,543 2,571 2,639 International Priority 421 421 410 417 International Economy 138 155 170 175 Total International Export Packages 559 576 580 592 International Domestic1 495 785 819 866 Total Avg Daily Packages 3,631 3,904 3,970 4,097 Average Daily Freight Pounds (000s): U.S. 7,487 7,612 7,854 7,676 International Priority 3,303 3,048 2,922 2,887 International Airfreight 1,171 1,066 798 650 Total Avg Daily Freight Pounds 11,961 11,726 11,574 11,213
  • 21. Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q2 YTD FY15 FedEx Ground Total Package Volume (000s) 1,000,099 1,076,709 1,165,217 598,076 Average Daily Package Volume (000s) 3,907 4,222 4,588 4,709 9 Yield (Revenue Per Package) $ 8.77 $ 8.94 $ 9.10 $ 9.25 Average Daily YOY Volume Growth Rate 4.3% 8.1% 8.7% 5.4% FedEx SmartPost Total Package Volume (000s) 433,042 522,726 550,745 253,955 Average Daily Package Volume (000s) 1,692 2,058 2,186 2,000 Yield (Revenue Per Package) $ 1.81 $ 1.77 $ 1.78 $ 1.87 Average Daily YOY Volume Growth Rate 18.2% 21.6% 6.2% (7.2%)
  • 22. FedEx Freight Annual LTL Shipment Statistics FY 2012 – FY 2015 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 Q2 YTD FY15 Shipments Per Day Priority 60,345 59,280 62,868 69,526 Economy 24,511 26,370 27,687 29,230 Total shipments per day 84,856 85,650 90,555 98,756 Weight Per LTL Shipment (lbs) Priority 1,202 1,237 1,262 1,251 Economy 1,045 990 1,000 1,012 Composite Weight per LTL Shipment 1,156 1,161 1,182 1,180
  • 23. • Analyst Coverage • ACCOUNTABILITY • ARGUS RESEARCH • B OF A M L • BAIRD R W • BARCLAYS CAPITA • BB & T CAPITAL • DEUTSCHE BK SEC • EDWARD JONES • MACQUARIE CAPIT • MORGAN STANLEY • OPPENHEIMER HLD • RAYMOND JAMES • STIFEL NICOLAUS • UBS • WILLIAM BLAIR Average Consensus Price Target: $192.50 12 Analysts Rated “Strong Buy” 7 Analysts Rated “Hold” Overview Industry Analysis Valuation Appendix

Editor's Notes

  1. Plans to improve capital spending to $4.2 billion in 2014 in acquisitions and modernizations of aircraft fleet Set a profit improvement goal of $1.6 billion dollars for 2016 Increase revenue per package by charging based on dimensional weight Increased shipping rates by 4.9% as of January 5, 2015
  2. Plans to improve capital spending to $4.2 billion in 2014 in acquisitions and modernizations of aircraft fleet Set a profit improvement goal of $1.6 billion dollars for 2016 Increase revenue per package by charging based on dimensional weight Increased shipping rates by 4.9% as of January 5, 2015
  3. Decline in 2013 Operating Income due to re-estimated depreciation on aircraft, business realignment costs, and impairment charges from retiring 10 aircraft
  4. Cash Balance decreased in 2014 due to one-time costs: severance payments for 3600 employees, higher taxes, and capex requirements