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FedEx Vs. UPS Strategy Analysis

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FedEx Vs. UPS Strategy Analysis

  1. 1. Akshay BasrurAlin DevGregory Berman SI863 – Spring 2012Mikhail GurevichSidharth Ramsinghaney
  2. 2. Agenda Thesis and Recommendations Analysis  Industry  Segments and Pricing  Productivity and Cost Risks  Capital Structure Conclusion 2
  3. 3. Thesis and RecommendationsThesis UPS is a much better managed company FedEx needs to improve operations in order to stay competitiveRecommendations for FedEx Use financial derivatives as hedge instruments Optimization in package routing through technology Increase transport efficiency and effectiveness by modernizing aging fleet Replace aging air fleet to reduce operating expenses Replace operating leases with capital lease to improve operating margin Focus on growing high margin international business segment through Priority Service 3
  4. 4. Industry Analysis Five force analysis  Customers bargaining power(A): HIGH  Suppliers bargaining power(B): MEDIUM - HIGH  Threats of new entrant(C): LOW (B)  Power of substitutes(D): LOW (Depends)  Industry rivalry(E): HIGH (A) (C) (D) (E) 4
  5. 5. Segments & Pricing Int’l • Asia Pacific – largest growing region, 24% in 2010 & • US Market near saturation Domestic • High demand for int’l priority Comp. Adv. Express $56 Domestic High Margin $37 Prices Delivery Ground $16 $19 $7 $7 $8 $7 Low Margin Domestic International International Domestic US Domestic Ground domestic Freight priority Air Truck & LTL Loss FedEx UPSRecommendation:• Focus on growing high margin international business segment through Priority Service 5
  6. 6. Productivity and Costs Risks Cost Breakdown Structure Salary and employee benefits Purchased transportation Rentals and leases Depreciation and amortization Fuel Expenses Maintenance and repairs Other Expenses Operating margin 3.6% UPS 53.1% 13.4% 1.9% 6.0% 2.3% 7.8% 11.9%FedEx 38.9% 14.4% 6.3% 5.0% 10.6% 5.0% 13.8% 6.10% While FedEx has achieved lower relative expense for # of Revenue Op. Inc. / salary and employee benefits – it has exposed itself Emp. / Emp. Emp. to risk with its leases, fuel FedEx 290,000 $135,500 $8,200 expense, maintenance, and repairs UPS 400,600 $132,563 $15,177 Recommendations: • Use financial derivatives as hedge instruments (short-term) and optimization in package routing through technology (long-term). • Increase transport efficiency and effectiveness by modernizing aging fleet 6
  7. 7. Capital Structure - Profitability FedEx UPS ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 5.6% Benefit from Lev 3.9% ROA 14.3% Benefit from Lev 29.1%Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA-Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 1.5 3.7% 2.3% 1.69 2.0 7.0% 9.6% 3.04 Capital Structure100% Lower ROE of FedEx appears to be caused by lower leverage and thin profit margin 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Fedex UPS Share Holders Equity Long Term Debt Current Liabs 7
  8. 8. Market Outlook FedEx UPS Beta 1.26 0.89 Credit Rating BBB A+ 8
  9. 9. Capital Structure – with Off Balance Sheet Items Capital Structure as Reported Capital Structure w/Off Balance Sheet Items 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Fedex UPS Fedex UPS Share Holders Equity Off Balance Sheet Items Share Holders Equity Long Term Debt Current Liabs Long Term Debt Current LiabFedEx has more liabilities than UPS, which comprise majority Operating Leases 9
  10. 10. Adjusted Capital Structure –Profitability FedEx UPS ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 3.2% Benefit from Lev 6.3% ROA 12.1% Benefit from Lev 31.2% Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA- Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 0.9 3.7% 2.1% 2.99 1.7 7.0% 8.7% 3.57 200 Cap.Ex. per $ of Operating Cash Flow Air Fleet Age 1.00 150 No.of Aircrafts 0.80 Capex / OCF 100 0.60 0.40 50 0.20 0 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 20 30 40 50 Age (Years) FedEx UPS FedEx UPSRecommendations:• Replace aging air fleet to reduce operating expenses• Replace operating leases with capital lease to improve operating margin 10
  11. 11. Conclusion UPS  More efficient  Superior financial performance  Greater shareholder returns FedEx  Grow high-margin int’l business segment through Priority Service  Hedge fuel expenses through financial products  Reduce costs and increase profit by modernizing aging air fleet  Improve package delivery performance by investing in technology 11
  12. 12. Thank you! Questions? 12
  13. 13. Exhibit A: Summary & Growth FedEx UPS Average Daily Packages 6.9 million 15.8 million Express Packages Delivered On Time 88% 91% Average Express Transit Time 17:21 17:57 Total Air Fleet 694 Jets 268 Jets Ground Fleet 43000 Ground Vehicles 101900 Ground Vehicles Alternative Fuel 406 2,022 Hybrid Vehicles 329 (and 19 Electric Vehicles) 250Change year-to-year 2011 2010 2009 FedEx (4 yearavg.) UPS (4 yearavg.)In average fuel price 22.3% -14.7% -6.8% Sustainable Growth* 3.8% -4.5%In FedEx fuel cost as % of revenues 1.7% -1.6% -1.1% Actual Growth** 3.1% 2.0%In UPS fuel cost as % of revenues 1.2% -0.5% -0.2% 13
  14. 14. Exhibit B: DuPont Comparison FedEx Profitability UPS Profitability ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 5.6% Benefit from Lev 3.9% ROA 14.3% Benefit from Lev 29.1% Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA- Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 1.5 3.7% 2.3% 1.69 2.0 7.0% 9.6% 3.04 FedEx Profitability after adjustments UPS Profitability after adjustments ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 3.2% Benefit from Lev 6.3% ROA 12.1% Benefit from Lev 31.2% Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA- Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 0.9 3.7% 2.1% 2.99 1.7 7.0% 8.7% 3.57 14
  15. 15. Exhibit C: Growth Model 05/31/2011 05/31/2010 05/31/2009 05/31/2008 05/31/2007Inflation 0.03% 2.63% 1.63% 2.93% 4.30%FedEXReport Date 05/31/2011 05/31/2010 05/31/2009 05/31/2008 05/31/2007Scale Millions Millions Millions Millions MillionsTotal Revenue 39,304 34,734 35,497 37,953 35,214Retained Earnings (for that year) 1300 1047 -83 1032 1902Total Equity 15,220 13,811 13,626 14,526 12,656FedEx 05/31/2011 05/31/2010 05/31/2009 05/31/2008 05/31/2007 AverageSustainable Growth Rate 8.5% 5.0% -2.2% 4.2% 10.7% 3.8%Actual Growth Rate 13.16% -2.15% -6.47% 7.78% 3.1%UPSReport Date 05/31/2011 05/31/2010 05/31/2009 05/31/2008 05/31/2007Scale Millions Millions Millions Millions MillionsTotal Revenue 53,105 49,545 45,297 51,486 49,692Retained Earnings -476 1419 333 -1774 -3490Total Equity 7,035 7,979 7,630 6,780 12,183UPS 05/31/2011 05/31/2010 05/31/2009 05/31/2008 05/31/2007 AverageSustainable Growth Rate -6.8% 15.2% 2.7% -29.1% -32.9% -4.5%Actual Growth Rate 7.19% 9.38% -12.02% 3.61% 2.0% 15

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