Good evening everyone!We are the FedEx vs UPS team.
A quick overview of what we would be talking about in the next 20mins.Our analysis has been primarily around the key questions of –First - Where is FedEx or UPS making money, and we dig deeper into each of the business segments and their pricing strategies.Second - Where is the money coming from and where is it going, particularly an in-depth analysis of the capital structure for both the firms.And third - With each company’s core competencies and capabilities, how they are meeting customer requirements and what are the possible risks associated, specific to employee productivity and costs?
Package delivery is a commoditized and a price-competitive industry. But, where FedEx and UPS, have some similarities (which is expected), there are some pretty interesting strategic differences.It basically boils down to analyzing what these companies say they are doing and what they are actually doing!We found that UPS is a much better managed of the two- -operating at almost two times the EBITDA margins-generating higher returns on assets-and creating significantly more shareholder value.Although FedEx is by no means unprofitable, boasting an impressive 3.1% annualized and 11.6% five-year CAGR revenue growth rates in a commoditized industry, we find that there are opportunities for improvement and growth that the firm can purse. In this presentation we will discuss the corporate strategies that FedEx can implement in order to stay competitive. Our recommendations focus on three key drivers--growing market share-increase efficiency-generating more shareholder value, through the following strategies:-Use financial derivatives as hedge instruments, to manage fuel costs.-Optimization in package routing through technology -Increase transport efficiency and effectiveness by modernizing aging fleet-Replace aging air fleet to reduce operating expenses-Replace operating leases with capital lease to improve operating margin-Focus on growing high margin international business segment through Priority Service
In a commodity market,little product differentiation and consumer behavior is driven primarily by prices => FedEx is at a disadvantage.FedEx’s higher prices result from its inability to efficiently manage costs and having sub-optimized delivery network when compared to UPS. FedEx is also suffering from margins that are almost half as those of UPS, and therefore it cannot decrease prices any further without creating a significant impact on its profitability.FedEx’s strength in international delivery allows the company to receive much higher margins in that segment, and also experience faster growth than its rivals. FedEx’s capability in order fulfillment for international priority package delivery is its differentiating factor in the market and we recommend that the company leverage this strength to grow its international presence. As a matter of fact,over the last four years Internationalwasresponsible for majority of FedEx revenue. In 2011 International segments contributed 40% of FedEx Express revenue and in 2010 it was the only segment that grew.While US package delivery market becomes saturated with lower margins and more competition, the international market is growing faster than ever. We believe FedEx can leverage its strengths to capitalize on this growing demand and become an international market leader in package delivery service, while leaving UPS to remain the leader in US.
Cross-functional analysis-Operating in a highly commoditized industry, both FedEx and UPS have similarities as well as differences in how they conduct their business. Both have similar core competencies in order fulfillment-and core capabilities in Operations and Technology. -Workforce is one of the points of difference between the two, with UPS going the union way (Red Circle), while FedEx hires more contractors. -But one of the biggest difference is the way FedEx and UPS finances their business is significantly different. UPS is highly leveraged, which makes ROE and related ratios much higher than those of FedEx. -UPS’s operations are much better structured as compared to that of FedEx which is clearly reflected by its operational margins. “Click”In summary, we conclude that UPS is currently a better managed company, -enjoying superior financial performance -and greater shareholder returns. And while FedEx has made strides to improve its operations over the past few years,in order to stay competitive it must continue to invest in expanding its services, increase operational efficiency, upgrade the fleet, and invest in technology. Based on our analysis we recommend FedEx take four initiatives to improve its business: -grow its high-margin international business segment through Priority Service, -hedge fuel expenses through financial products, -reduce costs and increase profit by modernizing aging air fleet, -and improve freight segment performance by investing in technology.
Thank you for listening to us. We are now open for questions!
Agenda Thesis and Recommendations Analysis Industry Segments and Pricing Productivity and Cost Risks Capital Structure Conclusion 2
Thesis and RecommendationsThesis UPS is a much better managed company FedEx needs to improve operations in order to stay competitiveRecommendations for FedEx Use financial derivatives as hedge instruments Optimization in package routing through technology Increase transport efficiency and effectiveness by modernizing aging fleet Replace aging air fleet to reduce operating expenses Replace operating leases with capital lease to improve operating margin Focus on growing high margin international business segment through Priority Service 3
Industry Analysis Five force analysis Customers bargaining power(A): HIGH Suppliers bargaining power(B): MEDIUM - HIGH Threats of new entrant(C): LOW (B) Power of substitutes(D): LOW (Depends) Industry rivalry(E): HIGH (A) (C) (D) (E) 4
Segments & Pricing Int’l • Asia Pacific – largest growing region, 24% in 2010 & • US Market near saturation Domestic • High demand for int’l priority Comp. Adv. Express $56 Domestic High Margin $37 Prices Delivery Ground $16 $19 $7 $7 $8 $7 Low Margin Domestic International International Domestic US Domestic Ground domestic Freight priority Air Truck & LTL Loss FedEx UPSRecommendation:• Focus on growing high margin international business segment through Priority Service 5
Productivity and Costs Risks Cost Breakdown Structure Salary and employee benefits Purchased transportation Rentals and leases Depreciation and amortization Fuel Expenses Maintenance and repairs Other Expenses Operating margin 3.6% UPS 53.1% 13.4% 1.9% 6.0% 2.3% 7.8% 11.9%FedEx 38.9% 14.4% 6.3% 5.0% 10.6% 5.0% 13.8% 6.10% While FedEx has achieved lower relative expense for # of Revenue Op. Inc. / salary and employee benefits – it has exposed itself Emp. / Emp. Emp. to risk with its leases, fuel FedEx 290,000 $135,500 $8,200 expense, maintenance, and repairs UPS 400,600 $132,563 $15,177 Recommendations: • Use financial derivatives as hedge instruments (short-term) and optimization in package routing through technology (long-term). • Increase transport efficiency and effectiveness by modernizing aging fleet 6
Capital Structure - Profitability FedEx UPS ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 5.6% Benefit from Lev 3.9% ROA 14.3% Benefit from Lev 29.1%Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA-Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 1.5 3.7% 2.3% 1.69 2.0 7.0% 9.6% 3.04 Capital Structure100% Lower ROE of FedEx appears to be caused by lower leverage and thin profit margin 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Fedex UPS Share Holders Equity Long Term Debt Current Liabs 7
Capital Structure – with Off Balance Sheet Items Capital Structure as Reported Capital Structure w/Off Balance Sheet Items 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Fedex UPS Fedex UPS Share Holders Equity Off Balance Sheet Items Share Holders Equity Long Term Debt Current Liabs Long Term Debt Current LiabFedEx has more liabilities than UPS, which comprise majority Operating Leases 9
Adjusted Capital Structure –Profitability FedEx UPS ROE 9.5% ROE 43.3% ROA 3.2% Benefit from Lev 6.3% ROA 12.1% Benefit from Lev 31.2% Asset Profit ROA- Asset Profit ROA- Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE Turn Margin Interest Liab/SE 0.9 3.7% 2.1% 2.99 1.7 7.0% 8.7% 3.57 200 Cap.Ex. per $ of Operating Cash Flow Air Fleet Age 1.00 150 No.of Aircrafts 0.80 Capex / OCF 100 0.60 0.40 50 0.20 0 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10 20 30 40 50 Age (Years) FedEx UPS FedEx UPSRecommendations:• Replace aging air fleet to reduce operating expenses• Replace operating leases with capital lease to improve operating margin 10
Conclusion UPS More efficient Superior financial performance Greater shareholder returns FedEx Grow high-margin int’l business segment through Priority Service Hedge fuel expenses through financial products Reduce costs and increase profit by modernizing aging air fleet Improve package delivery performance by investing in technology 11