The document discusses the divergent economic recoveries across countries following the global financial crisis and common recession. It argues that tailor-made fiscal and labor market policies are needed to boost employment, as financial stress remains high and stimulus becomes more cost-effective. Specifically, it recommends targeting long-term unemployment aggressively with the most effective policies, as stimulus measures lose effectiveness over time.
In economics, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy.
Inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index, usually the consumer price index, over time.
This paper develops a forward-looking indicator for macroeconomic uncertainty that employers are confronted with when they take decisions about the size of their workforce. The model that provides the basis for this uncertainty indicator interprets hires and lay-offs of workers as an investment into projects with uncertain return. Employers decide when to undertake this investment. Uncertainty can then be derived as a function of a labour productivity threshold above which it is profitable for employers to hire workers. The measure that is first theoretically derived is then taken to the data. Economy-wide uncertainty for G7 economies and uncertainty by economic sector for the United States are calculated from data on hiring demand and unit labour costs. The resulting quarterly time series demonstrate that in most economies hiring uncertainty went up at the onset of the Great Recession and has remained at an elevated level since then. A panel VAR analysis reveals that hiring uncertainty excercises a significant, economically sizeable and persistent effect on both the output gap and unemployment.
The G7 labour market dashboard gives a quick overview of key labour market developments in G7 countries. It compares unemployment, employment, labour force, GDP growth, wages and unit labour costs across all seven countries.
This newsletter provides the latest ILO global and regional unemployment projections. We show that global youth unemployment is to increase further this year to 12.7%, as the euro zone crisis has started to affect emerging economies in East and South-East Asia. The newsletter argues that countries should address the rising tide of youth unemployment by offering training and employment guarantees, which come at an affordable cost of not more than 0.5% of GDP.
In economics, inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy.
Inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index, usually the consumer price index, over time.
This paper develops a forward-looking indicator for macroeconomic uncertainty that employers are confronted with when they take decisions about the size of their workforce. The model that provides the basis for this uncertainty indicator interprets hires and lay-offs of workers as an investment into projects with uncertain return. Employers decide when to undertake this investment. Uncertainty can then be derived as a function of a labour productivity threshold above which it is profitable for employers to hire workers. The measure that is first theoretically derived is then taken to the data. Economy-wide uncertainty for G7 economies and uncertainty by economic sector for the United States are calculated from data on hiring demand and unit labour costs. The resulting quarterly time series demonstrate that in most economies hiring uncertainty went up at the onset of the Great Recession and has remained at an elevated level since then. A panel VAR analysis reveals that hiring uncertainty excercises a significant, economically sizeable and persistent effect on both the output gap and unemployment.
The G7 labour market dashboard gives a quick overview of key labour market developments in G7 countries. It compares unemployment, employment, labour force, GDP growth, wages and unit labour costs across all seven countries.
This newsletter provides the latest ILO global and regional unemployment projections. We show that global youth unemployment is to increase further this year to 12.7%, as the euro zone crisis has started to affect emerging economies in East and South-East Asia. The newsletter argues that countries should address the rising tide of youth unemployment by offering training and employment guarantees, which come at an affordable cost of not more than 0.5% of GDP.
This study presents an overview of current research on the relationship between trade globalization and informal jobs in developing economies. Based on existing academic literature and complemented by new research by the ILO and WTO, this report discusses the impact of trade reforms on different dimensions of informal employment. Various transmission mechanisms are discussed, setting results from country studies against international comparisons. The volume analyses the policies necessary for countries with large informal economies to take advantage of trade reforms and maximize the benefits from international trade. It discusses the obstacles created by high informality rates to translating trade openness into sustainably higher long-term growth rates. The book focuses on the connections between trade, labour and social policies, creating conditions for countries to successfully integrate into the world economy. It will be of interest to all those who are involved in this debate, in particular trade specialists, economists, policy-makers, employers and trade unions.
The annual Global Employment Trends (GET) report 2014 provide the latest global and regional estimates of employment and unemployment, employment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity and working poverty. The report also analyse country-level issues and project trends in the labour market up to 2018.
Presentation by Leszek Balcerowicz, Warsaw School of Economics at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
FISCAL POLICY:-
Fiscal policy is the means by which a government adjusts its spending levels and tax rates to monitor and influence a nation's economy
Fiscal policy is the means by which a government adjusts its spending levels and tax rates to monitor and influence a nation's economy
How will artificial intelligence affect jobs, earnings and inequality? Together with the JustJobsNetwork, I explore recent trends in AI, the opportunities and challenges this new technologies creates and an outlook to future developments.
The ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends (WESO) 2015 report provides latest global and regional projections of employment and unemployment, employment by sector, vulnerable employment, labour productivity, informal employment and working poverty. They also offer an overview of income and social developments related to wage growth, income inequality and social unrest.
Global unemployment will reach 202 million people in 2013, including almost 74 million youth. Rising skills mismatch and persistently high uncertainty in hiring prevents a faster return of employment. Slowing structural change and weak labour productivity growth hampers faster reduction of working poverty in developing countries. The only green spot: Rising middle class employment in emerging countries can help rebalance global growth over the medium run.
This newsletter provides the latest ILO global and regional unemployment projections. We show that global unemployment is to increase further this year to around 202 million people, mainly driven by worsening labour market conditions in Developed Economies and East Asia
Macro-labour linkages are being studied on the basis of an unemployment flow model with a macro-economic closure, using a reduced-form New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The presentation gives an overview of the main model mechanisms and estimation resutls. In a policy section, the working of tighter employment protection and more rigid wage developments are being presented.
What will be the impact of changes in financial market regulation on employment? Based on insights recently published in the ILO's Global Employment Trends 2012, this presentation provides empirical results on the impact changes in banking regulation, international financial transaction taxes and regulation of securities markets might have on job creation, job destruction and employment growth.
Job recovery in times of constrained public finances
1. Employment friendly macroeconomic frameworks Job recovery in times of constrained public finances Ekkehard Ernst Principal Economist, International Institute for Labour Studies [email_address]
17. Additional spending could be a win-win option Exit scenarios from the crisis in advanced G20 countries
Editor's Notes
Note: The chart displays the average correlation of OECD country’s world trade exposure with respect to the overall OECD average world trade. Both trade weighted and unweighted averages are displayed. The correlation coefficient is based on a rolling 24 months window of deviations of trade from trend. Source: OECD, Monthly Trade Statistics, 2010; own calculations
Note: The chart displays the average correlation of OECD country’s world trade exposure with respect to the overall OECD average world trade. Both trade weighted and unweighted averages are displayed. The correlation coefficient is based on a rolling 24 months window of deviations of trade from trend. Source: OECD, Monthly Trade Statistics, 2010; own calculations
Source: OECD (2009) Fiscal Packages Across OECD Countries: Overview and Country Details, OECD Paris, March; Andes, Scott and D. Castro(2009) "Driving a Digital Recovery: IT investments in the G-20 Stimulus Plan" The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, September; Robins, N., R. Clover and C. Singh (2009) "Building a Green Recovery" May 2009, HSBC Global Research, New York; Reid, Patricia (2009) "Oppurtunity in the Times of Crisis: Stimulus Packages and the Green New Deal” Working Policy Paper August 2009, Canada-Europe Transatlantic Dialogue: Seeking Transnational Solutions to 21st Century Problems; Meyer-Ohlendorf, N., B. Gorlach, K. Umpfenbach, M. Mehling (2009) "Economic Stimulus in Europe - Accelerating Progress towards Sustainable Development" Background Paper, ESDN Meeting, Prague June 2009; Zhang, Y, N. Thelen and A. Rao (2009) "Social Protection in Fiscal Stimulus Packages: Some Evidence" A UNDP-ODS Working Paper, New York September 2009; Ministry websites of various countries and other national sources.
Source: OECD, Economic outlook 86
Source: National sources
Source: National sources
Souce: WoW 2010, ch. 3
Souce: WoW 2010, ch. 3
Note : The chart presents the contributions (in %) to unemployment in- and outflows of different fiscal and labour market policies. Contributions are calculated with respect to the average spending shock across the country sample for each individual policy. Short-term effects are based on exogenous interest rates, long-term effects take the impact of an increase in government debt on real long-term interest rates into account. Source: WoW 2010, ch. 3