How will artificial intelligence affect jobs, earnings and inequality? Together with the JustJobsNetwork, I explore recent trends in AI, the opportunities and challenges this new technologies creates and an outlook to future developments.

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JustJobsNetwork webinar:
Artificial intelligence and employment
Ekkehard Ernst
Research Department
International Labour Organization (ILO)
6 September 2018

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What is artificial intelligence?

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Where can we see current uses?g

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And what can we expect to come?g

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How will AI impact jobs?
Change in
employment
shares
(in pp)
­5
0
5
10
High income
countries
Low income
countries
Lower­middle income
countries
Upper­middle income
countries
High
skill
Medium
skill
Low
skill
High
skill
Medium
skill
Low
skill
High
skill
Medium
skill
Low
skill
High
skill
Medium
skill
Low
skill
2000­13 2013­21

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And what about earnings?
Computer storage cost fell dramatically...
...but so did job destruction...
But inequality
increased!
80
90
100
110
120 Job destruction
Income inequality
(Index, 2000=100)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Storage costs: US$ per GB
(logarithmic scale)
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

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Economic and social challenges
Winner-takes-all with AI
Granular discrimination
Price and wage
discrimination
AI perpetuates historical
biases
Is AI skill-biased?
Secular stagnation?
02468
TrendTFPgrowth
(inpercent)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Japan United States
France United Kingdom
Source: Banque de France, Historical Productivity Database, 2018
Trend TFP growth

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What should policy makers do?

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Peeking behind the curtain
So far, AI replaces repetitive mechanical and mental tasks...

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Peeking behind the curtain
...but first applications in creative arts and tasks are visible...

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Peeking behind the curtain
...which do not make machines independent thinkers...

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Peeking behind the curtain
...let alone autonomous goal-setting machines

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A last wordg
“Large neuronal networks today have a maximum of 1 million
nodes but consume the energy of a nuclear power plant. The
human brain has 84 billion neurons and runs on a slice of
bread.”
Chris Boos, AI expert and founder of Arago