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World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO):
Trends 2015
Job-friendly Macroeconomic Policies Unit
Research Department
International Labour Organization (ILO)
January 2015
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 1 / 24
The world of work faces multiple challenges
Global
challenges
Slow growth
Inequality
Decreasing
participation
Jobs gap
Youth
unemployment
Vulnerable
employment
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 2 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
Global growth remains lackluster...
Global growth and its components (per cent per annum)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 3 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
...preventing unemployment from falling
Global unemployment (millions)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 4 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
The global job gap opens up further...
Global job gap, 2014-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 5 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
...with significant variations across countries
Cross-country variations in unemployment rates (percentages)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 6 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
Youth unemployment continues to rise...
Change in youth unemployment, 2019 vs 2014
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 7 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
...especially in European countries...
Unemployment rates by age in the EU-28, Q2 2014 (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 8 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
... spreading the risk of social unrest....
Male youth unemployment and unrest (1991-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 9 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
... which remains at its highest level for two decades
Social unrest across the world (index)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 10 / 24
Barriers to growth Overview
Global growth faces four headwinds
Barriers to
growth
Inequality
Job loss in
manufacturing
Gender gaps
Decreasing
participation
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 11 / 24
Barriers to growth Inequality
Inequality remains high in developing countries...
Inequality measured by Gini index (2010)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 12 / 24
Barriers to growth Inequality
...and keeps on rising in advanced economies...
Evolution of the average Gini coefficient in G7 economies (2000-11)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 13 / 24
Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...as medium-skill jobs disappear...
Change in employment by occupation in 2000-2013
(percentage points in total employment)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 14 / 24
Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...weighting on stronger economic growth
Income inequality makes growth accelerations less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 15 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
Future employment growth is mainly expected in services...
Sectoral employment growth (p.a.): 2010-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 16 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...as manufacturing no longer drives development...
Peak share of manufacturing employment (1992-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 17 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...which bodes ill for a faster economic recovery
Job creation in manufacturing makes growth slowdowns less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 18 / 24
Barriers to growth Female employment
Women face high risks of vulnerable employment...
Difference between male and female vulnerable employment rates
(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 19 / 24
Barriers to growth Female employment
...and are less often employed
Difference between male and female employment rates
(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 20 / 24
Barriers to growth Global labour supply
Global labour supply is set to slow down...
Labour force participation rate (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 21 / 24
Barriers to growth Global labour supply
...increasing the risk of growth setbacks
Impact of labour supply on the probability of growth slowdowns
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 22 / 24
Policy conclusions
How can we get growth back on track?
Growth
Bolster aggregate demand and
enterprise investment
Finance
Re-orient credit system to
support the real economy
Inequality
Foster quality jobs, participation,
skills and income growth
Key challenge
The word economy is expanding
well below the pre-crisis trends
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 23 / 24
Check out for more !
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 24 / 24

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World Employment and Social Outlook - Trends 2015

  • 1. World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO): Trends 2015 Job-friendly Macroeconomic Policies Unit Research Department International Labour Organization (ILO) January 2015 Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 1 / 24
  • 2. The world of work faces multiple challenges Global challenges Slow growth Inequality Decreasing participation Jobs gap Youth unemployment Vulnerable employment Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 2 / 24
  • 3. Global trends Jobs gap Global growth remains lackluster... Global growth and its components (per cent per annum) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 3 / 24
  • 4. Global trends Jobs gap ...preventing unemployment from falling Global unemployment (millions) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 4 / 24
  • 5. Global trends Jobs gap The global job gap opens up further... Global job gap, 2014-2019 Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 5 / 24
  • 6. Global trends Jobs gap ...with significant variations across countries Cross-country variations in unemployment rates (percentages) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 6 / 24
  • 7. Global trends Youth unemployment Youth unemployment continues to rise... Change in youth unemployment, 2019 vs 2014 Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 7 / 24
  • 8. Global trends Youth unemployment ...especially in European countries... Unemployment rates by age in the EU-28, Q2 2014 (percentage) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 8 / 24
  • 9. Global trends Youth unemployment ... spreading the risk of social unrest.... Male youth unemployment and unrest (1991-2013) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 9 / 24
  • 10. Global trends Youth unemployment ... which remains at its highest level for two decades Social unrest across the world (index) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 10 / 24
  • 11. Barriers to growth Overview Global growth faces four headwinds Barriers to growth Inequality Job loss in manufacturing Gender gaps Decreasing participation Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 11 / 24
  • 12. Barriers to growth Inequality Inequality remains high in developing countries... Inequality measured by Gini index (2010) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 12 / 24
  • 13. Barriers to growth Inequality ...and keeps on rising in advanced economies... Evolution of the average Gini coefficient in G7 economies (2000-11) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 13 / 24
  • 14. Barriers to growth Occupational shifts ...as medium-skill jobs disappear... Change in employment by occupation in 2000-2013 (percentage points in total employment) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 14 / 24
  • 15. Barriers to growth Occupational shifts ...weighting on stronger economic growth Income inequality makes growth accelerations less likely Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 15 / 24
  • 16. Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth Future employment growth is mainly expected in services... Sectoral employment growth (p.a.): 2010-2019 Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 16 / 24
  • 17. Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth ...as manufacturing no longer drives development... Peak share of manufacturing employment (1992-2013) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 17 / 24
  • 18. Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth ...which bodes ill for a faster economic recovery Job creation in manufacturing makes growth slowdowns less likely Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 18 / 24
  • 19. Barriers to growth Female employment Women face high risks of vulnerable employment... Difference between male and female vulnerable employment rates (percentage points) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 19 / 24
  • 20. Barriers to growth Female employment ...and are less often employed Difference between male and female employment rates (percentage points) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 20 / 24
  • 21. Barriers to growth Global labour supply Global labour supply is set to slow down... Labour force participation rate (percentage) Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 21 / 24
  • 22. Barriers to growth Global labour supply ...increasing the risk of growth setbacks Impact of labour supply on the probability of growth slowdowns Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 22 / 24
  • 23. Policy conclusions How can we get growth back on track? Growth Bolster aggregate demand and enterprise investment Finance Re-orient credit system to support the real economy Inequality Foster quality jobs, participation, skills and income growth Key challenge The word economy is expanding well below the pre-crisis trends Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 23 / 24
  • 24. Check out for more ! Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 24 / 24