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CAPE ECONOMICS
CAPE ECONOMICS

The effects of shocks to crude oil and natural gas, prices and production levels on the economy of Trinidad and Tobago.

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The Impact of the Energy Sector on the Economy of Trinidad and Tobago An Investigation using Econometric Modelling Techniques Edward Bahaw June 30 th 2010
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
T&T Energy Statistics (2009) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Gross Domestic Product ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP Time Series
Impacts on GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production
Natural Gas Utilization (2009)
Value Chains ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Crude Oil Upstream Taxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Natural Gas Upstream Taxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Natural Gas Downstream Taxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Natural Gas Production and GDP
Crude Oil Production and GDP
Natural Gas Price and GDP
Crude Oil Price and GDP
Correlation Coefficients Energy Parameter Correlation with GDP Crude Oil Price 0.83 Crude Oil Production 0.02 Natural Gas Price 0.56 Natural Gas Production 0.99
Are Correlations sufficient? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Econometric Modelling Tools ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Econometric Modelling Tools ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Econometric Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Significant causal effect on GDP? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Actual vs. Fitted GDP
Actual vs. Fitted GDP
Magnitude and Direction Energy Sector Variable Percentage Change in Energy Sector Variable Impact on GDP Natural Gas Production  10%  5% Natural Gas Price  10%  0.5%
Outlook on Natural Gas Production ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Outlook on Natural Gas Price ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suggestions?

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