Speakers: Cather Gamper, Team lead, Climate adaptation and resilience team, Environment directorate (OECD) and Sophie Lavaud, Policy Analyst, Climate adaptation and resilience team, Environment directorate (OECD). Presentation at the 1st meeting of the Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) held at the OECD headquarters on 27-28 September, 2023.

1. Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
1st Meeting of the WPCC
27-28 September 2023
Catherine Gamper and Sophie Lavayd
Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division (CBW)
Environment Directorate
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2. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Overview of presentation
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1. Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts
2. Case study: Strengthening climate resilience to water scarcity in Paris
3. Future work on droughts

3. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
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Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
➢ Droughts affect all parts of the world;
➢ Droughts …
… accelerate land degradation, aquatic ecosystem degradation;
… increase water insecurity, inequalities, displacements;
… produce significant economic impacts (agriculture, energy, tourism,
freight transportation, housing..);

4. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
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➢ USA: 2012/13 droughts (USA, Mex, Eastern Canada):
• Low winter precipitation, extreme summer heat;
• Decreased yields, supply shortfall, food price increase;
• Lower water levels in major river: decreased trade;
• Estimated losses of USD 35 in mid-west; estimated 0.5-1%
in national GDP (= USD 150 billion);
➢ Europe 2003 droughts
• Significant precipitation deficits, extreme heat, increased
evapotranspiration;
• Decreased yields of wheat and maize by 30%;
• Extreme low water discharge;
• USD 13 billion losses; 100 million people affected
Source: IPCC 2022, 6th Assessment report
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
Global average drought risk 1901-2010

5. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
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Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
➢ Climate change has and will make droughts more frequent
and more intense (IPCC, 6th assessment report)
• Number of areas and people affected by droughts in
Europe rose by 20% between 1976 and 2006;
• Climate change estimated to have made the 2013
droughts 46% more severe (Science: Williams et al, 2020)
• Drought frequency and intensity to increase with every
0.5 degree warming (IPCCC, 2021)
• Megadroughts (10+ years) likelihood to increase from
12 to more than 60% in RCP 4.5 (NASA,2015)
Change in land area exposed to meteorological drought
Source: World Bank Group (2022): Droughts and Deficits: the Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth.

6. Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
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ADAPTING TO WATER SCARCITY INDUCED
BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN PARIS

7. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The project
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• Assess prospective drought-induced water scarcity impacts
• Assess the robustness of the resilience framework of the
Parisian area
• Foster a dialogue and raise awareness on possible resilience
measures

8. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The rationale for the project
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Reference period (1976-2005) Mid-term horizon (2041-2070), RCP 4.5
• More frequent and
severe drought
projected
• Hydrological droughts
up to 10 times longer
• River flow decrease
from 10 to 30% by 2050
Projected droughts in Paris area
Source: OECD calculations

9. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The rationale for the project
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• ↑ irrigation
needs of 30% by
2050
• ↑ drinking water
consumption of
5% by 2050
Source: OECD calculations
% of irrigated
land area by
2050
Source: Agence de l’Eau Seine Normandie, Etat des lieux 2019
• Projected water consumption

10. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
An exposed area
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Economic
activities
• 32.6% of the french
GDP
• Major port facilities
and importance of
fluvial transportation
• Major industrial area
and most important
touristic region
globally
• 50% of land used for
agriculture
Energy
consumers
• 25% of the french
energy
consumption
• Cooling and
heating
distribution
networks as well
as energy
facilities
Ecosystems
• 24% of forested
areas
• 1300 animal
species, 630
vegetal species
• Wetlands and
biological
reservois

11. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
A national and local concern
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Paris Climate risk assessment in 2021 and pending update of the
climate resilience strategy of the city
Greater Paris
Metropolis
Climate, Air, Energy Plan in 2018 highlighting possible conflicts
over water
Public Basin
institution
Economic assessment of the impacts of water reservoirs on
the Seine River Basin, 2022
Region Climate resilience strategy, December 2022 with a focus on
water resources
France National water plan, April 2023 to propose measures to adapt
to water scarcity

12. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
A collaborative approach
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• A written questionnaire
• More than 100
interviews conducted
• Collaboration with an
economic research lab

13. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
An opportunity for peer learning
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• 3 experts from
Barcelona, London and
the Netherlands
• 3 days of interviews with
stakeholders in Paris
• An international
workshop to share best
practices

14. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Next steps
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• Policy dialogue
• Draft report
• Launch in March 2024 aligned with publication of the
new resilience strategy of the city of Paris

15. Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
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FUTURE WORK ON DROUGHTS

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Rainfall
variability/Decrease in
precipitations
Increase in
temperatures
Meteorological (Lack of
precipitation)
Agricultural or Soil drought (Water scarcity for soils,
ecosystems)
Hydrological drought (Lower water flows, water recharge)
Water scarcity for human activities
Men-made
drivers
Time
duration Source: Inspired from UNDRR 2021
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
What is the policy challenge?
➢ Difficult to predict and to monitor;
• Need for prospective vulnerability studies;
• Need for common assessment frameworks;
• Droughts are a silent, slow-onset risk;
➢ Affect all sectors;
• Measures undertaken in one sector affect drought
impacts in others;
• Need for consistent policies;
• Floods & droughts: two sides of the same coin;
➢ Different drought types require different policy
responses;

17. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Suggested scope of oecd work
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➢ Stock-take exercise
• Establish state of play of different types of drought risk under changing climatic conditions
• Overview of expected environmental, social and economic consequences of different types of droughts
➢ Review existing policy responses
• Desk-based review and country-focused case studies
• Evaluate whether existing policy responses are fit for future expected drought risks
➢ Policy dialogue
• Initial drought risk conference
• Country focused policy dialogues
• International workshops
➢ Flagship report
• Brings together recommendations and a policy toolkit for countries to strengthen future drought resilience

18. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Questions for discussion
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➢ How can this work be made most relevant for your
country?
➢ Would you like to support our work on droughts
and water scarcity in the future?