Presentation to Australian Grains Genebank, 21 March 2016, Horsham, Australia. Presentation to Agribio, La Trobe University, 18 March 2016, Melbourne, Australia.

1. Diversity in global food supplies
and the implications for food security
Colin K. Khoury
Australian Grains Genebank
Horsham, Australia

2. How many crops feed the world?
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

3. A simple question?
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2385929

4. National diets are growing larger and more energy dense
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

5. National diets are becoming more diverse*
*for crops measured in
FAO food supply data
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

6. National diets are becoming more even*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

7. National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

8. calories
National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

9. 1961
National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

10. 1985
National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

11. 2009
National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

12. National diets are becoming more similar*
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

13. calories
Changing importance of crops in diets
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

14. • Major cereals, tubers and
sugar- centerpiece and still
growing
• Oil crops, especially
soybean and palm oil-
major increases
• Regional cereals, tubers,
and oils- marginalizing
• Local crops also declining
Changing relative contribution to diets
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

15. • Calories:
+ rape and mustard (+20,751%), palm oil (+6724%), rice (+232%),
potatoes (+37%), grapes (+130%), cottonseed oil (+6250%), maize
(+279%), soybean (+943%), olives (+227%), cocoa (+184%)
- wheat (-24%), sugar (-33%), barley (-20%), coconuts (-51%)
• Protein:
+ potatoes (+41%), rice (+242%), peas (+105%), maize (+361%)
- wheat (-25%), groundnut (-39%)
• Fat:
+ rape and mustard (+18,796%), palm oil (+4040%), cottonseed
oil (+2757%), soybean (647%), olives (+152%), sunflower
(+281%)
- coconut (-61%), wheat (-42%), groundnut (-77%)
Australian dietary change 1961 to 2009
Khoury et al. (2014) PNAS 111(11): 4001-4006

16. Soybeans are harvested at Fartura Farm, in Mato Grosso state, Brazil – Paulo Fridman/Corbis http://blog.bpmcpa.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Globalization12.png
Drivers: agricultural development

17. Implications in agricultural systems
Soybeans are harvested at Fartura Farm, in Mato Grosso state, Brazil – Paulo Fridman/Corbis
Neil Palmer/ CIAT

18. http://www.bento.com/subtop5.html
Global food system

19. This is the wheat, rice, maize, sugar, palm oil, soybean phase
Triticum, Oryza, Zea, Saccharum, Elaeis, Glycine
This is the
Triticoryzeacchalaeiscine
“Triti-co-ryze-accha-laeis-cine”

20. Crop Wild Relatives

21. https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/
CWR in global conservation targets
“By 2020, the genetic diversity of
cultivated plants and farmed and
domesticated animals and of wild
relatives, including other socio-
economically as well as culturally
valuable species, is maintained, and
strategies have been developed and
implemented for minimizing genetic
erosion and safeguarding their genetic
diversity.”
Convention on Biological Diversity
Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020
Aichi Biodiversity Targets

22. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300
CWR in global development targets
“By 2020 maintain genetic
diversity of seeds, cultivated plants,
farmed and domesticated animals and
their related wild species,
including through soundly managed
and diversified seed and plant banks
at national, regional and international
levels, and ensure access to and fair
and equitable sharing of benefits
arising from the utilization of genetic
resources and associated traditional
knowledge as internationally agreed”
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Target 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved
nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

23. Crop wild relatives are valuable
Aluminium tolerance from
Oryza rufipogon
Salinity tolerance from
Solanum cheesmaniae
Western corn rootworm resistance
from Tripsacum dactyloides
Salinity tolerance from
Helianthus paradoxus
Publications- 2% of citations recorded prior to 1970, 13% in the 1970s, 15% in the 1980s, 32% in the 1990s and 38% 2000-2009 (n=234)
Disease resistance 39%, pest and disease resistance 17%, abiotic stress tolerance 13%, quality improvement 11% yield increase 10%, husbandry
improvement 6%, cytoplasmic male sterility and fertility restorers 4% (Maxted & Kell 2009)

24. 2055
CWR are threatened
Jarvis et al. 2008
Agric. Ecosys. Environ.
126: 13-23.
1950-2000

25. 25
Wild Pecos sunflower
Helianthus paradoxusWild squash Cucurbita okeechobeensis subsp.
okeechobeensis
Scrub plum Prunus geniculataTexas wild rice Zizania texana
Including in countries with strong
conservation programs

27. Gather
occurrence data
Make collecting
recommendations
Model
distributions
Process data
Determine gaps
in collections
Taxonomic
Geographic
Ecological
Choose species
or area
81 crop genepools
1076 crop wild relative
taxa (close relatives)
CWR gap analysis method

28. Crop Wild Relative Global Occurrence Database
http://www.cwrdiversity.org/checklist/cwr-occurrences.php
www.cwrdiversity.org

29. Distributions of the CWR of pigeonpea
Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.

30. Collecting priorities for the CWR of pigeonpea
Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.

31. Gaps in genebanks for CWR of pigeonpea
Khoury et al. 2015. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.

32. Distributions of CWR worldwide
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

33. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
High Medium Low No further collecting
recommended
71.1%
13.8%
11%
4.2%
Collecting priorities for CWR worldwide
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

34. Gaps in genebanks for CWR worldwide
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

35. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Number of high priority species (HPS) for collecting per country
Australia’s got under-conserved CWR
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

36. Distributions of pigeonpea CWR in Australia
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

37. Distributions of rice CWR in Australia
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

38. Distributions of sorghum CWR in Australia
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

39. Distributions of soybean CWR in Australia
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

40. Distributions of CWR in Australia
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

41. Gaps in genebanks for Australian CWR
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. 2016 Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants. doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22

42. The clock is ticking
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329772-500-australias-epic-scheme-to-farm-its-northern-wilds/#.VBMrW_ldUek

43. CWR resources

44. The “primary regions of diversity” of crops
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

45. Estimating interdependence in plant genetic resources

46. “Primary regions of diversity” of crops
International Potato Center (CIP)

47. High diversity in primary regions
David Cavagnaro

48. The “primary regions of diversity” of crops
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

49. Primary region of
diversity of crops
Production
quantity
(tonnes)
Production
quantity
(%)
Harvested
area (ha)
Harvested
area (%)
Production
value current
million US$)
Production
value (%)
Calories
(kcal/
capita/
day)
Calories
(%)
Protein
(g/
capita/
day)
Protein
(%)
Fat (g/
capita/
day) Fat (%)
Food
weight
(g/
capita/
day)
Food
weight
(%)
North America 1,919,723 0.9% 213,950 0.3% 1,309.7 2.1% 91.3 1.1% 0.2 0.2% 4.0 1.7% 90.7 2.2%
Central America and
Mexico 2,834,726 1.3% 482,965 0.6% 3,345.9 5.3% 261.0 3.3% 1.7 1.8% 23.9 10.4% 51.0 1.3%
Caribbean 2,107,763 1.0% 322,539 0.4% 2,829.6 4.5% 62.7 0.8% 0.0 0.0% 7.1 3.1% 6.7 0.2%
Andes 2,365,732 1.1% 717,305 1.0% 1,134.0 1.8% 96.7 1.2% 2.9 3.0% 0.3 0.1% 215.3 5.3%
Tropical South America 2,443,372 1.1% 353,714 0.5% 3,139.7 5.0% 241.7 3.0% 1.8 1.9% 24.9 10.9% 61.7 1.5%
Temperate South America 29,492 0.0% 1,596 0.0% 190.3 0.3% 1.0 0.0% 0.2 0.2% 0.0 0.0% 1.7 0.0%
West Africa 2,517,561 1.1% 715,049 1.0% 573.3 0.9% 254.3 3.2% 3.4 3.6% 15.3 6.7% 63.7 1.6%
Central Africa 2,403,161 1.1% 672,913 0.9% 480.3 0.8% 254.3 3.2% 3.4 3.6% 15.3 6.7% 63.7 1.6%
East Africa 4,706,287 2.1% 1,331,976 1.8% 3,413.4 5.4% 137.7 1.7% 2.2 2.3% 12.3 5.4% 37.7 0.9%
Southern Africa 4,481,502 2.0% 1,011,631 1.4% 3,348.8 5.3% 76.7 1.0% 0.9 0.9% 7.2 3.1% 11.0 0.3%
Northwest Europe 1,690,784 0.8% 887,473 1.2% 926.2 1.5% 402.7 5.1% 0.2 0.2% 0.2 0.1% 179.3 4.4%
Southwest Europe 4,081,897 1.9% 2,855,365 3.8% 2,317.3 3.7% 667.0 8.4% 0.9 1.0% 29.1 12.7% 216.7 5.4%
Northeast Europe 1,690,784 0.8% 887,473 1.2% 926.2 1.5% 402.7 5.1% 0.2 0.2% 0.2 0.1% 179.3 4.4%
Southeast Europe 4,230,784 1.9% 2,882,089 3.9% 2,585.1 4.1% 667.0 8.4% 0.9 1.0% 29.1 12.7% 216.7 5.4%
South and East
Mediterranean 38,202,056 17.4% 21,541,584 28.8% 10,277.9 16.3% 1377.3 17.3% 21.2 22.4% 31.7 13.8% 657.7 16.3%
West Asia 41,284,897 18.8% 19,631,774 26.3% 10,384.3 16.5% 803.7 10.1% 21.7 22.9% 7.9 3.5% 560.7 13.9%
Central Asia 38,135,583 17.4% 18,270,503 24.4% 8,978.6 14.3% 687.3 8.6% 19.8 20.9% 2.6 1.1% 528.7 13.1%
South Asia 30,500,858 13.9% 1,132,309 1.5% 2,118.0 3.4% 539.0 6.8% 3.3 3.5% 2.7 1.2% 180.3 4.5%
East Asia 3,425,034 1.6% 366,636 0.5% 2,606.4 4.1% 226.7 2.8% 2.7 2.9% 3.8 1.6% 252.3 6.3%
Southeast Asia 29,870,111 13.6% 478,056 0.6% 1,867.2 3.0% 517.0 6.5% 2.5 2.6% 2.1 0.9% 172.0 4.3%
Tropical Pacific Region 76,067 0.0% 3,636 0.0% 74.4 0.1% 17.0 0.2% 0.1 0.1% 1.8 0.8% 7.0 0.2%
Not Specified 122,262 0.1% 22,042 0.0% 73.7 0.1% 180.7 2.3% 4.5 4.7% 7.7 3.4% 278.7 6.9%
Primary regions of diversity of crops produced and/or
consumed by Australia

50. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by
Australia

51. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by
Australia

52. Primary regions of diversity of crops produced by
Australia

53. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by
Australia

54. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by
Australia

55. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by
Australia

56. Primary regions of diversity of crops consumed by
Australia

57. Calories

58. Calories

59. Calories

60. Calories

61. Calories

62. Calories

63. Calories

64. Calories

65. Calories

66. Calories

67. Calories
Global interconnectedness
with regard to primary
regions of diversity of crops
important in food supplies
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

68. Australian national agricultural production - at least 99.9% comprised of crops whose primary regions are elsewhere on the
planet, for all production variables
Global average: 71.0% ± 1.8 for production quantity, 64.0% ± 2.2 for harvested area, and 72.9% ± 1.9 for production value
Production
quantity
Degree of production per country of “foreign” crops

69. Calories
Degree of consumption per country of “foreign” crops
Australian national food supply - 91.8% - 100% of calories are from crops whose primary regions of diversity are elsewhere,
87.2% - 100% of protein, 89.8% - 100% of fat, and 81.1% to 100% of food weight
Global average: 65.8% ± 1.8 for calories, 66.6% ± 2.1 for protein, 73.7% ± 1.6 for fat, and 68.7% ± 1.4 for food weight

70. Use of “foreign” crops has increased over time
Production systemsFood supplies
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

71. Australia benefits from foreign crop genetic diversity

72. Importance of crops and their coverage in the MLS
Khoury et al. (2015) ITPGRFA Research Study 8 (Rome: FAO).

73. Dietary diversity:
Khoury et al. (2014) Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security. PNAS
111(11): 4001-4006.
Khoury & Jarvis (2014) The Changing Composition of the Global Diet: Implications for CGIAR Research. CIAT Policy Brief No.
18.
Crop Wild Relatives:
Khoury et al.(2015) Crop wild relatives of pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.]: distributions, ex situ conservation
status, and potential genetic resources for abiotic stress tolerance. Biological Conservation 184: 259-270.
Castañeda-Álvarez et al. (2016) Global conservation priorities for crop wild relatives. Nature Plants.
doi:10.1038/NPLANTS.2016.22
Interdependence:
Khoury et al. (2015) Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in Plant Genetic Resources Provisioning National Food Supplies and
Production Systems. International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, Research Study 8 (Rome:
FAO).
Khoury et al. (2015) Where our Food Crops Come from: A new estimation of countries’ interdependence in plant genetic resources.
CIAT Policy Brief No. 25.
Thank you!
c.khoury@cgiar.org