Pakistan's agriculture sector faces challenges from water scarcity and climate change. It relies heavily on irrigation but water availability is decreasing due to glacier melt and lower river flows. Climate change is also reducing crop yields and threatening food security. Adaptation measures are needed like new crop varieties, improved irrigation, and water harvesting. Priority research areas include developing climate data, crop modeling, carbon sequestration methods, and assessing climate change impacts on water resources, pests, and crop production. Immediate action and funding for adaptation strategies is critical to minimize the negative impacts of increasing heat, erratic weather, and less irrigation water on Pakistan's agriculture.

1. NATIONAL CONFERENCE
PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AT
CROSS ROAD OF WATER SCARCITY
& CLIMATE CHANGE
“Pak-Agriculture outlook: Past, Present and Future”
DR MUHAMMAD ANJUM ALI
MEMBER PLANT SCIENCES DIVISION
PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE RESEARCH COUNCIL
November 8.2018 at UAAR Rawalpindi

2. PAKISTAN’S POSITION IN THE WORLD
Population – 6th most populated in the world, Cotton – 4th position in
the world, Sugarcane – 5th position in the world, Wheat – 9th position
in the world, Rice – 12th position in the world Maize – 14th position in
the world, Livestock – 2nd in buffalo; 13th in cattle; 9th sheep; 3rd in
goat, Milk – 5th position in the world, Fruits – Comparative advantage
in mango, citrus and dates
Earlier: Food insecurity, Rationing of Food, Imports,
Charities, Low per acre production, no adoption of new
technologies

3. CURRENT CHALLENGES
Green, White, Rice, corn, Orange, Mango Potato revolutions. surplus in
wheat, Sugarcane, Rice, (Problematic and challenging) Maize as per needs,
cotton, pulses and oilseed imports and striving for more avenues for
export of fruit, vegetables, fish, livestock products and value added
products
Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity & malnutrition for a large
population, Stagnation/decline in yields, Low diversification, degradation
of natural resources - Soil Organic Matter reduction, input use efficiencies,
narrow genetic base, Climate Change & Quality and quantity of water
resources, Profitability: Increasing cost and reduction in overall agriculture
growth

4. EMERGING SCENARIOS:
DRIVERS OF AGRICULTURE TRANSFORMATION
Increasing population leading to higher (and quality)
demand of food, Food diversification, Increasing
urbanization, Increasing rural migration-tenant farming,
contract and cooperative farming, Increasing inter- and
intrasectoral competition for resources: land, water,
energy, credit, Increasing globalization, trade barriers,
information and communication, innovative technologies,
Biotechnology, space sciences and ICT etc

5. HOW IS PAKISTAN AFFECTED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE
Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative
effects of climate change.
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding
will affect water resources within the next two to three decades.
This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as
glaciers recede.
Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will
lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater
for the population.

6. HOW IS PAKISTAN AFFECTED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE
Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of
Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding
from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.
Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change
is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in
turn will affect livelihoods and food production.
Combining the decreased yields with the current rapid
population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of
hunger and food security will remain high.

7. HOW IS PAKISTAN AFFECTED BY
CLIMATE CHANGE
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily
associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise.
Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate
the abundance of cholera.
The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing
social inequalities of resource use and intensify social
factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people
and changes in migration patterns.

8. IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
May alter spatial and temporal demands
and supply by impacting: Food
production, Stability and sustainability,
Employment and Autonomy, Profitability,
Trade & economy and Global financial
Crisis

9. 22 80.7
141 31
6
104 24.6
57.4
50.3 27
Total Water
Available
Down Stream
Kotri
River Basin
Losses
Canal Water for
Agri.
Conveyance
Losses
Available Canal
Water
Ground Water
Pumped
Application
Losses
Water used in
agriculture
Canal &
Distributaries
Watercourses
Water in canals
Water available for
agriculture
108.1
Million Acre Feet
WATER AVAILABILITY
IRSA SHARE Punjab KHARIF 37.07 MAF RABI 18.87 MAF TOTAL 55.94 MAF
Provinces Irrigated
Land (Mha) , Punjab
13.83, Sindh 2.01,
KP0.93, Baluchistan
0.83, Total 17.60
Land Use Category Area (Mha) % ,Area
under agriculture cultivation 22.00 (27.6%),
Area under forest 4.19 (5.3%) ,Culturable
waste 8.33 (10.5%),Area not available for
agriculture 22.70 28.5%,Area not surveyed
22.39 28.1% Total geographical area 79.61

10. WATER RELATED CHALLENGES
Shrinking water resources (fresh water is
finite), Inadequate storage and
sedimentation of reservoirs, High water
losses in irrigation system, Low water and
land productivity, Limiting/diminishing energy
resources, Shortage of electricity and High
cost of diesel

11. ADAPTATION MEASURES UNDER CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIO
There are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector can
undertake to cope with future climate change. These include: –
Changing planting dates; – Planting different varieties or crop
species; – Development and promotion of alternative crops; –
Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties; – Improved
crop residue and weed management; – More use of water
harvesting techniques, – Better pest and disease control for crops; –
Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems
(Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching)

12. LATEST DEVELOPMENTS
SEED TECHNOLOGY, (Hybrid, Drought, Submergence, Nutrition,
Genomics, CRISPR, N Efficient, Biotic Resistance, C3 to C4, Super Plants),
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY Internet, Computer,
Android, Whattsapp, Training Aid, F/B, TRANSFER OF TECHONOLGY,
MECHANIZATION, Scale Specific Machines, Flying Machines,
FERTLIZER (Micronutrients, Hormones, Enzymes, Nano technologies,
Solubility's etc) IRRIGATION Salt Water, Waste Water, HEIS, Rainwater,
Laser, B&F, DIVERSIFICATION, INTENSIFICATION, PLANTING SYSTEMS
(Density, C/System. Types) , VALUE ADDITION (Farm to Hightech),
MARKET CONNECTVITY, (PP System, Cluster, Corporate, Contract,
Cooperative), CLIMATE/WEATHER (Remote Sensing, LAWS/
REGULATIONS, INTERNATIONAL COMPLIANCES

13. THRUST AREAS TO WORK FOR CLIMATE
SMART AGRICULTURE
Development of weather and climate change data
archive and retrieval system, Targeted research on
crop-weather and crop-weather-pest relationship studies.
Crop growth modeling, Microclimate modifications,
Crop evapotranspiration, Agro-climatic characterization,
remote sensing and related areas in applied agricultural
meteorology. Devise, validate and operationalize
predictive models in forecasting agricultural productivity
and food production under changing climate scenarios.

14. THRUST AREAS TO WORK FOR CLIMATE
SMART AGRICULTURE
Devise and evaluate methods to increase carbon
sequestration / carbon trading and minimizing
greenhouse gas emissions through interdisciplinary
approaches. Studies on assessing the impact of climate
changes on water resources and development of suitable
water management strategies for the region.
Evaluation of existing and development of improved
agricultural production and protection technologies for
field, vegetable and horticulture crops in view of changing
climate scenarios.

15. THRUST AREAS TO WORK FOR CLIMATE
SMART AGRICULTURE
Studies on effect of climatic changes on dynamics of weed
flora, insect pest and diseases of major field, vegetable and fruit
crops and their eco-friendly management. Studies on agro-
forestry / forestry aspects relevant to climate change.
Economic/socio-economic studies for evaluation of alternative
strategies contemplated for combating impacts of climate change
on agriculture and conservation of natural resources. Evolve a
logical operational framework for assessing risks of climate
change, accounting for existing and future climatic uncertainties,
and pertinent socio-economic and environmental risks for
making policy/planning decisions.

16. Achieving agriculture growth at 4% per annum, Increase
horticultural exports by 5% every year, Supporting pulses and
oilseed production, Development of hybrid seed industry,
Make agriculture profitable, Controlling trans boundary pest
and diseases, Incentive for Halal food industry, Agri Business
opportunities at CPEC, Processing/value addition at farm level
to reduce postharvest losses, Development of agriculture
service providers, Dissemination of technology for waste water
reuse and Harvesting of un-tapped potential of rain water and hill
torrents
TARGETS & OPPERTUNITIES

17. Climate change is a reality, Pakistan agriculture is suffering
a lot and will be significantly suffered due to heat, erratic
weather, and decreased irrigation availability. Adaptation
strategies can help minimize negative impacts. Robust
research, funding, and policy support is immediately
needed. Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but
likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher and
therefore, immediate actions are warranted to start
adaptation options at all levels through academia, research,
extension, farmers, civil society and media.
CONCLUSION

18. THANKS