This document discusses 10 emerging disruptive technologies to watch in 2011: 1) Likenomics - understanding the value of social media "likes". 2) Buy 2.0 - new ways of shopping that integrate social media and location-awareness. 3) Social search - search results influenced by social sharing and relationships. 4) Big data - the rise of tools to capture and analyze large datasets. 5) Enterprise social networking - bringing social media to internal company communications. 6) Gamification - applying game mechanics to non-game applications to motivate users. 7) Print extensions - adding digital capabilities to printed content through codes. 8) DIY and co-creation - engaging users

1. 1February 17, 2011Charlene LiFounder and PartnerHot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011

2. 2Source: Wordle.net

3. 3Prioritizing disruptions that matterUser ExperienceIs it easy for people to use?

4. Does it enable people to connect in new ways?Business ModelDoes it tap new revenue streams?

5. Is it done at a lower cost?Ecosystem ValueDoes it change the flow of value?

6. Does it shift power from one player to another?“How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.”1) Likenomics (credit to RohitBhargava)4Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currencySee http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take

7. Likenomics evaluation5User experience impact - moderatePeople with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income.People with low social currency will find ways to get it.Business model impact – moderateNew economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas.The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry.Ecosystem value impact – none

8. Special deals for special peopleGroup Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc.Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook DealsLocal sales and retailersGroup buying variation: Groupon and Living SocialIn-store check-ins: Shopkick and CheckpointsDynamic pricingOff and Away and SwoopoMobile price checkingAmazon mobile apps, eBay platformNew payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits2) Buy 2.06

9. How shopping will change7Store knows it’s meI walk into the storeAnd maps out planned and promoted products

10. Buy 2.0 evaluation8User experience impact - HighNew ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers.Business model impact – ModerateAcquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption.Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.Ecosystem value impact – ModerateNew entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.

11. 93) Social Search – Beyond FriendsSocial sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterpriseCreate a social content hub to gain tractionUse microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)

12. Social Search evaluation10User experience impact - ModerateSearch becomes more useful, relevant to people.Business model impact – ModerateSEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences.Ecosystem value impact – ModerateNew power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles.Google has little of either.

13. Social monitoring merges with Web analyticsHOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, WebtrendsTechnology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data”E.g. New York Times making its archives publicTwitter archived by Library of CongressFacebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTableData visualization tools make it easy to digestBalancing privacy and personalization4) Big Data11

14. Big Data evaluation12User experience impact - LowMost users won’t directly experience Big Data.Business model impact – HighNew businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost.Ecosystem value impact – ModerateOwners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.

15. 135) Enterprise Social Networking

16. Enterprise Social Networking evaluation14User experience impact – HighWork gets social, employees get connected to each other. Business model impact – ModerateWork gets done faster, cheaper.New organizational structures and cultures emerge.Ecosystem value impact – ModerateTraditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.

17. 156) Game-ification

18. TurboTaxused “games” to encourage sharing and support16Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring

19. Gamification evaluation17User experience impact – HighExperiences get richer, more engagingBusiness model impact – ModerateWork gets done faster, cheaper.New organizational structures and cultures emerge.Ecosystem value impact – LowService providers will remain focused, boutique firms.

20. 187) Print extensionsQR CodesImagine images as Bit.ly codes

21. Print extensions evaluation19User experience impact – ModerateUsers get new ways to get information quickly.No need to download special software, understand quirky images. Business model impact – ModerateLeverage print investment to extend further into buying process.Impacts importance of SEO. Ecosystem value impact – LowStandards, not new service providers, play a role.

22. Print extensions evaluation20User experience impact – ModerateUsers get new power, earn social status, when they become curators.Business model impact – ModerateLower cost of acquisition. Ecosystem value impact – ModerateStandards, not new service providers, play a role.

23. 8)DIY and Co-creation21

24. DIY an Co-creation evaluation22User experience impact – ModerateUsers become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in. Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization. Business model impact – HighReduced merchandising costs.Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.Ecosystem value impact – LowMostly home-grown, internal development.

25. 239) Curation

26. Curation evaluation24User experience impact – ModerateUsers gain new power as market influencers.Business model impact – LowLow unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.Ecosystem value impact – ModeratePower shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.

27. 25Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented RealityWhen scanning tech improves, will get hot

28. Augmented Reality evaluation26User experience impact – ModerateStill hard to use, limited availability.But when available, creates unique, new experience.Business model impact – LowUnclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.Ecosystem value impact – LowFew intermediaries emerge in new experiences. Usually home-grown.

29. 27To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A?Monitor your brandEngage by being helpful

30. Summary of disruptions28

31. Bonus #1: Transparency

32. 30Bonus #2: LeadershipHow to be out of control and still in command

33. It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.It is the one that is most adaptable to change. - Charles DarwinPreparing for disruption31

34. Charlene Licharlene@altimetergroup.comcharleneli.com/blogTwitter: charleneliFor slides, send an email to slides@altimetergroup.comFor more information & to buy the bookvisit open-leadership.com© 2010 Altimeter Group