ISPC 13

1. Meeting of the
Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC)
Lima, May 25-26 2015
Developing foresight capacity
Albino Maggio
University of Naples Federico II
Department of Agriculture and Food Science

2. PART I: A Few definitions
PART II: An Application
Foresight
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC94867/lbna27252enn.pdf

3. PART I:
A Few definitions

4. A definition
Foresight provides a space to different stakeholders and experts
for systemic thinking and developing anticipatory knowledge. It
explores future changes by anticipating and analysing possible
future developments and challenges both qualitatively and
quantitatively, and supports stakeholders to actively shape the
future vision for today strategies and actions.
(from A Glossary of Terms commonly used in Futures Studies)
http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/315951/Glossary%20of%20Terms.pdfFull Version
Foresight

5. Why is thinking about the long-term powerful?
helps to get out from present day concerns
helps to go beyond the current mainstream thinking
helps to look for opportunities
better anticipate the challenges that shape the future
supports creativity for today's strategies and actions
helps break gridlock

6. Foresight …
does not predict the future
complements desk research analyses with
structured dialogue
enhances future thinking by gathering anticipatory
intelligence from a wide range of knowledge
sources in a systematic way
structures the analyses to ensure the emergence
of collective intelligence derived beyond
established pathways and links it to today’s
decision making

7. Foresight, Forecasting, Planning
 Foresight can use forecasts, can contribute to planning,
assumes that there are numerous possible futures that can
be created through the actions we choose to take today
 A Forecast often assumes that there is one probable future
 Foresight time horizons should be beyond the usual planning
horizons. Typical foresight time horizons vary between 5-30
years but may be longer

8. Foresight Methods

9. PART II:
An Application

10. JRC Foresight on Global Food Security 2030
Foresight exercise on EU's role in global food security by 2030
• Need for identifying a common vision
• Need for identifying key challenges and opportunities
• Need for prioritisation in policymaking
The Foresight Process
• Agree on the most crucial drivers of change affecting food security in the future
• Reach a consensus on the most likely vision for 2030
• Challenge this vision by investigating drivers which could pose major challenges
• Analyse current policies and policy needs in terms of responsiveness, flexibility and
resilience to future food security needs and challenge

11. Structure of the Foresight process
Foresight
Concept & Structure
Designed
(Brussels, 14 June, 2012)
Workshop I
Sustainability
(Seville, 8-9 Apr, 2012)
Workshop II
Geography
(Brussels, 10-12 Jul, 2013)
Workshop III
Supply/Demand
(Brussels, 2-22 Oct, 2013)
A Food Security
Vision 2030
Developed
Workshop IV
Policies
(Brussels,
19-20 May, 2014)
Challenging the Vision
Reflection on Policies
June 2012 May 2014

12. Vision building
Vision:
Formulation of an integrated perspective
The preferred plausible future embedding the organisation's values
The most likely future?
Uses:
Show where an organisation should be heading
Mobilise
Preparedness

13. The experts
Different expert for different workshops
Broad Coverage
 Academia
 International Organizations
 NGOs
 Farmers Organizations
 Research Institutes/Governmental
 Industries

14. Main outcomes
• By 2030 and beyond, food security will increasingly be considered as
securing food supply in response to changing and growing global
demand.
• Food security is therefore not only a global and systemic challenge but
also an opportunity for Europe to play a role in innovation, trade, health,
wealth generation and geopolitics.
• Better coordination and coherence at EU level is necessary in order to
move from a food security to a food systems approach.

15. What is a Vision? Desirable, yet plausible, of where we want to be in the future.
Why is it useful? To engage stakeholders in a visionary approach in achieving
and shaping a specific future.

16. Current policy alignment with Vision 2030

17. Current need for policy alignment with Vision 2030

18. Key future challenges and uncertainties
Uncertainty in the evolution of trade and markets
We envision…. the development of a balanced food system
through steady economic growth, further liberalisation of
markets and trade, increased transparency and regulation
of the food system, and improved global governance on
food.
Challenging factors:
• Deadlock at WTO
• Ultra-sensitivity of agriculture in trade negotiations
• Nationalisation of food security concerns
• Impact of food safety and quality standards
• The role of climate change

19. Key future challenges and uncertainties
Challenges of changing and growing demand and
urbanisation
We envision… a largely demand-driven food system
where consumer behaviour shapes sustainable
objectives.
Challenging factors:
• Economic growth and changes in income will affect changing diets
and consumption patterns
• Urbanisation not currently considered as a key driver (Increasingly,
feeding the world will mean feeding the cities) and its impact on
food security is largely underestimated

20. Current EU Policy Positioning
• Current food security policies focus mainly on targeting
pockets of food insecurity, where hunger and malnourishment persist
• EU food security policies do not fully consider the challenges and
opportunities that are likely to arise out of the changing demographic and
socio-economic trends that will transform the future global food system
• In response to changing and growing global demand, food security will
increasingly be considered as securing food supply
• The extent of these global trends should be increasingly considered for and
integrated into an EU food systems approach

21. Food Insecurity
to Food System
Approach

22. Key messages
Policy coherence and coordination is needed between different
EU policies to work towards a «food system» approach
Clearer recognition that «feeding the world in 2030» will
essentially be «feeding the cities»
Increased recognition of the crucial role of demand-side dynamics
in shaping future food systems
In order to build food security solutions from the ground up a
culture of innovation in food systems should be promoted

23. The Food System
of
the Future

24. Thank your for your attention
Albino MAGGIO
Jean-Paul MALINGREAU
Tine.VAN-CRIEKINGE@ec.europa.eu
almaggio@unina.it
jeanmalingreau@gmail.com