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The CAP, its Challenges and the role of Research and Innovation
- 1. The CAP, its Challenges and the role of Research and Innovation "Harnessing Research and Innovation for Food 2030" A Science Policy Dialogue Brussels, 16 October 2017 Tassos Haniotis, Director Strategy, Simplification and Policy Analysis, DG AGRI, European Commission Commission #FutureofCAP
- 2. 2 Summarising the CAP debate Achievements of the CAP reform path • Bridging the gap between world and EU farm prices, thus increasing competitiveness • Turning the EU from a major trade player for both exports and imports into a net agro-food exporter • Providing relative income stability within a very volatile income and price environment Shortcomings of the CAP reform path • Despite progress, the environmental performance of EU agriculture requires further improvement • Productivity growth is mainly driven by the outflow of labour, and less by research or innovation • Questions on equity, safety net and simplicity of the CAP are still hotly debated Drivers and future challenges • The changing commodity, economic and price environment • The changing trade environment – especially the shift from multilateral to regional agreements • New climate change, environmental and broader sustainability priorities 2
- 3. Main issues for the future CAP debate: public money for private and/or public goods? Source: DG AGRI. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % GDPbillion EUR Export subsidies Other market measures Coupled support Decoupled support of which direct payments of which green payments Rural development - environment/climate Rural development - other measures CAP as share of EU GDP EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 outlook 2015-2020 3 EU-28
- 4. 4 Commodity price changes in recent years Source: World Bank. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (2010 = 100) Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals & minerals
- 5. Climate linked loss events in dramatic increase Source: © 2017 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE (January 2017) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Natural catastrophes worldwide - number of events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events Meteorological events: Tropical storm, extra-tropical storm, convective storm, local storm Hydrological events: Flood, mass movement Climatological events: Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire 5
- 6. "Greening" questions and challenges Cross compliance Question: Only regulatory elements included? 2nd layer of agri-environmental measures Question: Which criteria to link to 1st layer? 1st layer of agri-environmental measures Question: Mandatory or voluntary? Control Results Performance SIMPLIFICATION MODERNISATION Research Innovation Advice 6
- 7. 7 Turning tensions into synergies • Tensions that the future CAP has to address • The economy versus the environment – and the impact of cost pressure on environmental ambitions • Subsidiarity versus simplification – especially with respect to EU value added priorities • Jobs versus growth – the difficult, but also promising impact of new technologies on agriculture • Synergies that the future CAP has to develop • Find the right balance of support between private and public goods – both face market failures • Redefine the balance between EU, MS and farm responsibilities to simplify and avoid policy failures • Address jobs and growth challenges in rural areas and in the food chain – to enhance resilience • Main questions that the future CAP has to reassess and address • Better targeting requires a clear choice of the main target – is it the farm or its land? • Shift towards performance requires a fundamental rethinking of control logic (what, why, how) • Technologies (especially of EU-lead) provide major opportunities, but meet resistance in their use
- 8. 8 Reports and data available at: https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_en.htm https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/policy-perspectives/index_en.htm https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/policy-perspectives/impact-assessment/index_en.htm https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/index_en.htm https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/events/2016-outlook-conference_en https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/statistics_en https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-indicators_en https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/consultations/cap-modernising/2017_en Thank you for your attention!