Outline of the research project FOODSECURE, which explores EU policies that matter for global food and nutrition security. Presented at an inspirational meeting of European group of stakeholders in Valetta, 27 February 2014

1. Thom Achterbosch
European Visions & Options Workshop, Valletta, Malta, 26-27 February 2015
FOODSECURE
Interdisciplinary Research Project
to Explore the Future of Global
Food and Nutrition Security

2. Demand
Population (growth)
Income (growth, urbanization)
Poverty and inequality
Consumer behavior, waste
Bio-energy
Trade and Markets
Supermarkets
Protection
Financial markets
Food stocks
Supply =
Land (degradation)
Water (scarcity)
Productivity & technology
Labor & farm structure
Climate change
The 2050 world food equation is risk prone
J. von Braun, ZEF 2013

3. MDG/SDG: End hunger and malnutrition
FAO 2012
FAO 2014
global hunger index 2014

4. Need to deal with ecosystem
boundaries

5. FOODSECURE objectives
The objective is to design effective and
sustainable strategies for assessing and
addressing the challenges of food and
nutrition security.
FOODSECURE provides a set of analytical
instruments to experiment, analyse, and coordinate
the effects of short and long term policies related to
achieving food and nutrition security (FNS).

6. • 19 research
institutes in 12 countries
• € 8 mln subsidy from EC
• Duration 2012-17
• Building capacity and community of
researchers and stakeholders
Key features

7. European Commission (and Parliament)
Regional organizations in developing
countries
Civil society and private sector
Targeted stakeholders for impact

8. • Determinants:
understanding the
causes of hunger
and malnutrition
• Future: tools for
crisis surveillance
and foresight
• Guidance on a policy
framework, EU and
beyond
FOODSECURE research components

9. Organization of work
Price volatility
modelling
toolbox
Long-term
scenario
modelling
toolbox
Food crisis
surveillance &
management
EU policies for
food security &
sustainable
development
Determinants of
hunger and
malnutrition
Pooling data and modelling resources
Vision Development & Stakeholder Engagement
Determinants Future Guidance

10. Availability Accessibility Utilization Stability
Per capita total
amount of net
calories
available in a
given country
Net Share of
energy supply
(calories)
derived from
cereals, roots and
tubers
Average supply of
protein derived
from animal
sources
Average share of
food
expenditures in
total household
expenditures
Prevalence rate of
undernourished
people
Depth of food
deficit
Prevalence rate of
stunting for
children under 5
years
Prevalence rate of
underweight
among children
under 5 years
Diet Diversity
Score
Prevalence of
overweight and
obese adults
Prevalence rate of
anaemia among
women of
reproductive age
and children under
5 years
Per capita food
supply
variability
Domestic Food
Price Volatility
Pangaribowo et al, 2013

11. Countries with overlapping food security
concerns?
Source: Gerber et al. 2013
Food and nutrition security
Economic development
Agriculture
Infrastructure
Political stability

12. • Economic and biophysical
• stochastic and deterministic models
• Covers a timescale of 3 months to 2050
Analytical models to support early warning and
policy analysis
Nutrition (kCal) outcomes, alternative futuresSoybean excessive food price variability Early Warning System

13. Long-term modelling (WP7), with input from stakeholder
community
Determinants
Future
Guidance

14. • The purpose is to support EU policy makers and
other stakeholders in the design of consistent,
coherent, long-term FNS strategies.
− Agriculture
− Trade
− Agricultural R&D
− Climate change
− Environment
− Development aid
Policy Guidance

15. Thank you!
www.foodsecure.eu
For questions please contact:
thom.achterbosch@wur.nl