This document discusses Nigeria's population growth challenges and opportunities for human capital development. It notes that Nigeria's population has grown significantly from 45.2 million in 1960 to over 221 million currently, while the fertility rate remains high at 5.5. This rapid growth has created a youth bulge, high unemployment, and a largely dependent population. However, with strategic policy changes like reducing fertility rates, investing heavily in education, healthcare, and creating jobs, Nigeria can transition from a demographic crisis to gaining a demographic dividend with a more prosperous population over the next generation.

1. POPULATION GROWTH AND THE CHALLENGES OF
HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
DR EJIKE OJI
CSO FOCAL POINT FP 2020
CHAIRMAN TMC
ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF FAMILY OLANNING (AAFP)
MEDIA ROUNDTABLE ON THE 6TH NIGERIA FAMILY PLANNING CONFERENCE 2020
BOLTON WHITE HOTEL 28TH NOVEMBER 2020

2. SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
Indicator 1960 2006 2020
Total Population 45.2 m 140.4m 221.39m
Population
Growth Rate 2% 3.2% 3.2%
Per Capita
Income 1746.99USD 1656.42USD 2134.07 (2019)
Unemployment
Rate 2% 20% 27%
Nigerian Population Dynamics

3. BRITISH POPULATION DYNAMICS
Indicator 1960 2006 2020
Total Population 52.2 m 60.8m 67.3m
Population
Growth Rate 0.6% 0.7% 0.58%
Per Capita
Income 1396.5948 USD 44599.6976 USD
42300.2671 USD(
2019)
Unemployment
Rate 1.7% 5.4% 4.1%
Sources: UK Office for National Statistic (ONS), World Bank, Trading
Economics, Wikipedia

4. POPULATION TRENDS OF UK AND NIGERIA
1960 2006 2020
UK 52.2 60.8 67.3
Nigeria 45.2 140.4 221.39
52.2
60.8
67.3
45.2
140.4
221.39
INMILLION
AXIS TITLE
POULATION TREND OF UK & NIGERIA
UK Nigeria

5. POPULATION GROWTH RATE

6. INCOME PER CAPITA A MEASURE OF WEALTH

7. FERTILITY RATE/CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE
RATE (MCPR)
• In 1994 the world met in Cairo Egypt and mandated the whole
world to reduce fertility rate to 2.2 by the year 2019
• ICPD + 25 happened in Nairobi Kenya last year and the world has
brought it down to 2.5
• Our Fertility rate is still at 5.5 with great regional disparities
• Our contraceptive prevalent rate mCPR remains at 12% was at 10%
for almost 10years
• We promised the world in the London summit of 2012 that we shall
get our mCPR to 27% by the year 2020

8. A VERY HIGH YOUTH DEPENDENCY LEVEL
• 70% of our population is under the age of 30; 45% under
the age of 15
• Only 3.5% of our population is above the age of 65.
• Our fertility rate is 5.5 Average for the world 2.5
• Great regional disparities
• Nigeria now the poverty capital of the world
• Ranks 187 out of 189 countries in health care

9. A LARGELY DEPENDENT POPULATION
S/N YEAR
POPULATION
FIGURE
Growth Rate at
Census
DEPENDENCY
RATIO
(Youth +
Elderly
1 1952/53 30,417,000
1963 55,671,000
1991 88,992,220 2.8 86.8 93.1
2006 140,431,790 3.2 76.1 88.0
2015 188,739,902
Projected from
2006 PHC est.
growth rate of
3.2%
76.9
82.5
2020 221,392,168
Projected from
2006 PHC est.
growth rate of
3.2%
78.9 87.5

10. RESULTS OF ALL OF THESE
• Youthful bulge
• High level of emigration both skilled and unskilled
labour
• Nationals killing nations
• Unemployment
• High maternal and infant mortality rates
• Nigeria has the highest infant mortality rate in the world

11. POPULATION PYRAMID OF NIGERIA

12. POPULATION PYRAMID OF UK

13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UK AND NIGERIA
COMPARED
1960 2006 2020
Percent
Year
Unemployment Rate
UK
Nigeria

15. POLICY THRUST
TO REVERSE THE
HORRIBLE
TRENDS
• A philosophical decision has to be made about
our country
• Do Nigerians want to see themselves as Igbos,
Hausas, Fulanis, Yorubas, Angas, Ijaws, Tivs,
Biroms, Igalas, and so on of the 350 ethnic
nationalities or do they want to call themselves
Nigerians?
• So there are two deliberate decisions we need to
make.
• 1. Are we Going to call ourselves Nigerian
• 2. The deliberate and a generational decision to
turn our demographic crises to a demographic
dividend

16. POLICY THRUST TO REVERSE THE
HORRIBLE TRENDS
• Issue 1.
• A national civility program that will bring the best human
and Nigerian ethos to the fore
• From the kindergarten to the university level
• A deliberate policy of civility training and enforcement in
the country
• We do not treat each other nicely
• It should be enshrined in our body politics and way of life

17. POLICY THRUST TO REVERSE THE
HORRIBLE TRENDS: FROM DOOM TO PROSPERITY
• Fertility reduction
• Massive investments in formal and non formal education
• Massive investment in both infrastructure and human capital
development in the health care sector
• Policies that will introduce ease of doing business in the country to
create a massive employment opportunity in the country for our
youngsters
• Policies that will ensure equity, fairness, justice and a sense of
security in the country

18. FERTILITY REDUCTION
• No matter the level of work or level of efficiency introduced,
without fertility reduction it will be a mirage to achieve prosperity
• A well-funded right based family planning services free, qualitative
and accessible
• Funding and financing should be expanded by making sure that the
National Health Insurance scheme pays for it and enable the private
sector to offer the services but only charging for delivering the
service but not for the commodity
• A 0.5 % consumption tax should be on all private entities profit to
support the service

19. EXPANSION OF OUR EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM AND
INVESTMENT
Our investment in
education should be
more strategic to focus
on not only on
university level
education but on trade
schools to teach
different skills. Not all
our young people
would like to go to
school. The trade
schools should be
brought back.
Students loans
should be made
available to them for
those who though
bright but do not
have resources to
pursue their
academic career
The scholarship system
should be made more
transparent and efficient
to support brilliant but
indigent students to go
to school
The private sector
should be encouraged
but well regulated

20. MASSIVE INVESTMENT IN THE HEALTH CARE
SECTOR
• The government should introduce ease of doing business policies
for private care givers to flourish
• Reduction in multiple taxations. Health should be looked at as a
social service
• Provision of venture capital with at least three to four years
moratorium and a single digit interest rate
• A robust system of regulation, cooperation, public policy driven and
an efficient monitoring and evaluation mechanism that is peer
reviewed to be put in place

21. ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR DOING BUSINESS
• Ease of doing business is the key here. Not rhetorics but properly
engraved in the system
• Access to financing through well run development banks
• Attention to improvement of power and infrastructure
• Creating opportunities for people to be hired or create their own
businesses.
• Creating access to markets by deliberate polices that will aggregate
markets both at home and abroad. E.g the erstwhile commodity
boards.

22. THE GRUND NORM
• A deliberate policy that will guarantee
• Access
• Equity
• Fairness
• Justice and
• Security
• With all the forgoing we will unleash the greatest growth in a
country of all times.
• Remember though it will take a generation of 20 years to unfold

23. PARTING SOOTHING WORDS
•The COVID 19 Pandemic is not so terrible in
Nigeria due to the low level of aged people,
just about 3.5 %
•The young (with great immunity) that is over
80% of the population are going around with
it, without any trouble!!!!

24. THANK YOU SO MUCH