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Demographic trends with policy
implications
Dr Alison Taylor Policy updating for public sector players
ACT Demographer 17 September 2012
Outline – demographic megatrends
• Why is demography important?
• Population size
– How big are we now?
– How big will we be in the future?
• Population distribution
– Where do most of us live? – capital cities
– What is the future of rural and regional Australia?
• Population composition
– Ethnic diversity
– Are our communities ageist?
What is demography? No.1
Demography is about...
– Population size
• how many people
– Population growth or decline
• how the number of people in a place is changing over time
– Population processes
• levels and trends in fertility, mortality and migration
contributing to population size and change
• reflecting life’s three main moments:
What is demography? No.2
Demography is about...
– Population distribution
• Where people are located and why
– Population structure
• How many males and females of each age
• “Two-thirds of everything is related to age”
– Population characteristics
• What people are like in a given place
• Eg. education, income, occupation, family and household
relationships, immigrant and refugee status etc.
How big are we?
Rank Country 2010 pop Growth last
40 yrs
Projected
change
next 40 yrs
1 China 1.34bn 683m -45m
2 India 1.22bn 777m 467m
3 United States of
America
310m 124m 93m
4 Indonesia 240m 148m 53m
5 Brazil 195m 112m 28m
53 Australia 22m 12m 9m
Source: UN, World urbanization prospects, the 2011 revision
How fast are we growing?
• In 2010-11, Australia grew by 1.4%
• Faster than
– New Zealand, Viet Nam at 1.1%
– Indonesia, Hong Kong, Canada at 1.0%
– USA 0.9%
– Sweden and South Africa 0.7%
– United Kingdom 0.6%, France & China 0.5%
• Slower than
– Malaysia (1.6%), the Philippines (1.7%), Singapore (2.0%) and
PNG (2.3%)
Source: ABS, Cat No 3101.0 June 2011 based on UN data
Note: 2005-2010 average annual growth
World 1.16%
More developed regions 0.41%
Less developed regions 1.33%
(Sub-Saharan Africa 2.49%, Europe 0.11%)
How big will we get?
• How big do people think we should
grow?
• How can we avoid growth? And what are
the consequences?
• Is the ‘population problem’ about the size
or is it how and where people live?
Where do most of us live?
• Worldwide 51.6% lived in urban areas in 2010
– More developed regions 77.5%
– Less developed regions 46.0%
• Becoming increasingly urbanised with the
share living in urban areas growing by an
average of 0.98% (2005-10), faster in
developing countries
– More developed regions 0.40%
– Less developed regions 1.32%
Source: UN, World urbanization prospects, the 2011 revision
In Australia, we squash into capital cities
Source: ABS, unpublished
What about rural and regional Australia? 1
• Produces a lot of our wealth
• Longstanding trend of rural depopulation
• Many small towns and villages were established in a
different age for now obsolete roles eg. coach stops
• Larger towns may absorb some of surrounding rural
population but continue to lose young people
• Struggle to attract key workers
• Short-term, temporary or contract residents
• Fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out workers
What about rural and regional Australia? 2
• Regional cities could have a positive future if
given the right support – not just retirement
locations
• Good basic infrastructure (needs
supplementation in some cases)
• Housing – old stock, lack of interest in
developing new areas, costs, lack of diversity,
• But if in coastal areas, competition,
affordability, holiday homes, retirement
communities
Australia is becoming increasingly diverse
Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing (Birthplace of usual residents)
3.7
3.5
9.5
4.4
1.8
3.4
1.0
1.6
2.0
1.6
1.11.2
1.9
3.1
4.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Canberra Sydney Perth Brisbane
Percentofusualresidents
England China India New Zealand
Age structure
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/d331011
4.nsf/4a256353001af3ed4b2562bb001215
64/ca0b3137794a766bca256f6c0078cb0b!
OpenDocument
Policy implications
• Some of the key policy issues involve
population or demographic drivers
• Many policy issues have a population
dimension – usually about the number of
people, their age/sex or background
• Policy should occur in a knowledgeable
environment – learn something about
demography
• Demography is critical when developing policy
for the future
And finally...
• Demography is all about us
• Our parents, our children, our partners, our
neighbours
• The world is shrinking
• We are the ones who will be older people one
day – shouldn’t we be planning for our future?
Enquiries about this presentation should be directed to:
Chief Minister and Cabinet Directorate
ACT Government
actdemography@act.gov.au
See http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/policystrategic/actstats for further information.

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Demogtrends-Sept12

  • 1. Demographic trends with policy implications Dr Alison Taylor Policy updating for public sector players ACT Demographer 17 September 2012
  • 2. Outline – demographic megatrends • Why is demography important? • Population size – How big are we now? – How big will we be in the future? • Population distribution – Where do most of us live? – capital cities – What is the future of rural and regional Australia? • Population composition – Ethnic diversity – Are our communities ageist?
  • 3. What is demography? No.1 Demography is about... – Population size • how many people – Population growth or decline • how the number of people in a place is changing over time – Population processes • levels and trends in fertility, mortality and migration contributing to population size and change • reflecting life’s three main moments:
  • 4. What is demography? No.2 Demography is about... – Population distribution • Where people are located and why – Population structure • How many males and females of each age • “Two-thirds of everything is related to age” – Population characteristics • What people are like in a given place • Eg. education, income, occupation, family and household relationships, immigrant and refugee status etc.
  • 5. How big are we? Rank Country 2010 pop Growth last 40 yrs Projected change next 40 yrs 1 China 1.34bn 683m -45m 2 India 1.22bn 777m 467m 3 United States of America 310m 124m 93m 4 Indonesia 240m 148m 53m 5 Brazil 195m 112m 28m 53 Australia 22m 12m 9m Source: UN, World urbanization prospects, the 2011 revision
  • 6. How fast are we growing? • In 2010-11, Australia grew by 1.4% • Faster than – New Zealand, Viet Nam at 1.1% – Indonesia, Hong Kong, Canada at 1.0% – USA 0.9% – Sweden and South Africa 0.7% – United Kingdom 0.6%, France & China 0.5% • Slower than – Malaysia (1.6%), the Philippines (1.7%), Singapore (2.0%) and PNG (2.3%) Source: ABS, Cat No 3101.0 June 2011 based on UN data Note: 2005-2010 average annual growth World 1.16% More developed regions 0.41% Less developed regions 1.33% (Sub-Saharan Africa 2.49%, Europe 0.11%)
  • 7. How big will we get? • How big do people think we should grow? • How can we avoid growth? And what are the consequences? • Is the ‘population problem’ about the size or is it how and where people live?
  • 8. Where do most of us live? • Worldwide 51.6% lived in urban areas in 2010 – More developed regions 77.5% – Less developed regions 46.0% • Becoming increasingly urbanised with the share living in urban areas growing by an average of 0.98% (2005-10), faster in developing countries – More developed regions 0.40% – Less developed regions 1.32% Source: UN, World urbanization prospects, the 2011 revision
  • 9. In Australia, we squash into capital cities Source: ABS, unpublished
  • 10. What about rural and regional Australia? 1 • Produces a lot of our wealth • Longstanding trend of rural depopulation • Many small towns and villages were established in a different age for now obsolete roles eg. coach stops • Larger towns may absorb some of surrounding rural population but continue to lose young people • Struggle to attract key workers • Short-term, temporary or contract residents • Fly-in/fly-out or drive-in/drive-out workers
  • 11. What about rural and regional Australia? 2 • Regional cities could have a positive future if given the right support – not just retirement locations • Good basic infrastructure (needs supplementation in some cases) • Housing – old stock, lack of interest in developing new areas, costs, lack of diversity, • But if in coastal areas, competition, affordability, holiday homes, retirement communities
  • 12. Australia is becoming increasingly diverse Source: ABS, 2011 Census of Population and Housing (Birthplace of usual residents) 3.7 3.5 9.5 4.4 1.8 3.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.11.2 1.9 3.1 4.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Canberra Sydney Perth Brisbane Percentofusualresidents England China India New Zealand
  • 14. Policy implications • Some of the key policy issues involve population or demographic drivers • Many policy issues have a population dimension – usually about the number of people, their age/sex or background • Policy should occur in a knowledgeable environment – learn something about demography • Demography is critical when developing policy for the future
  • 15. And finally... • Demography is all about us • Our parents, our children, our partners, our neighbours • The world is shrinking • We are the ones who will be older people one day – shouldn’t we be planning for our future?
  • 16. Enquiries about this presentation should be directed to: Chief Minister and Cabinet Directorate ACT Government actdemography@act.gov.au See http://www.cmd.act.gov.au/policystrategic/actstats for further information.