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Ben Franklin - Future of Ageing Conference - Austerity and Health

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Presentation Slides from ILC-UK's Ben Franklin at the ILC-UK 2017 Future of Ageing Conference, 29 November 2017, London

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Ben Franklin - Future of Ageing Conference - Austerity and Health

  1. 1. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Public health in Europe during the austerity years Ben Franklin, Dean Hochlaf and George Holley-Moore follow us on twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf
  2. 2. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. What does our report do?  Maps austerity across Europe.  Explores how health outcomes evolved during this time.  Seeks to isolate the impact of austerity on health cross-nationally  Explores evidence from individual countries.
  3. 3. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Austerity was a pan-European affair Fiscal adjustment 2009-2013 as a proportion of GDP
  4. 4. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Change in EU average spending by type during austerity years 2009-2012 Only spending on old age (pensions) and housing rose
  5. 5. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Prevention spending was cut hardest Growth of health spending for selected functions, EU average 2005-2014
  6. 6. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Health outcomes during the austerity years • Slowdown in mortality improvements. • Slowdown in life expectancy improvements. • Slowdown in subjective health improvements and fall amongst 15-24 year olds. • Rise in unmet needs.
  7. 7. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Health outcomes during the austerity years • Slowdown in mortality improvements. • Slowdown in life expectancy improvements. • Slowdown in subjective health improvements and fall amongst 15-24 year olds. • Rise in unmet needs. UK outlier in subjective health
  8. 8. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. But to what extent was austerity to blame? Empirical model To measure the effects of austerity on health we build an empirical model which has two parts: 1. Estimates the effects of unemployment on mortality rates across European countries and… 2. Explores whether unemployment had stronger or weaker effects on mortality depending on the severity of the austerity pursued. In our analysis we include two measures of austerity – one based on cuts to health expenditure and the other based on cuts to social expenditure. All data for the model comes from OECD and Eurostat.
  9. 9. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Associations between austerity and health
  10. 10. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Associations between austerity and health But the effects are relatively small – austerity has not had much of an impact on mortality rates in either direction. For a fuller picture, a longer term, distributional analysis of the effects of austerity is required
  11. 11. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. So what can we say about the relationship between austerity and health? • Europe is ageing fast, and health is arguably the most important asset to ensuring a sustainable future. • Many European countries undertook profound changes to their health (and social security) systems. The behavioural responses to these changes will take time to emerge and understand. • The drive for efficiency in public services is a noble goal, but efficiency must equate to continual progress in health and other quality of life outcomes, otherwise it is tantamount to failure. • Health services across Europe insulated themselves from the worst short-term effects of austerity, but such a limited goal cannot be sustained, either politically, socially or economically over the medium to longer term.
  12. 12. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Many thanks Ben Franklin, Dean Hochlaf and George Holley-Moore International Longevity Centre - UK 02073400440 Twitter: @ilcuk @bjafranklin @dhochlaf

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