Brazil has experienced a demographic transition with population growth rates declining from 3% in the 1950s to 1.5% today. Life expectancy has increased from 42 years in 1940 to 71 years currently, though infant mortality remains high at 30 per 1000 due to poor healthcare. Botswana has the second highest HIV rate in the world at 37.3% while Brazil has a much lower rate of 0.7% due to large investments in prevention campaigns, production of generic drugs, and mobilizing civil society. Brazil is helping countries like Botswana by producing educational media, setting up factories to produce cheaper drugs, and sharing their expertise in treating HIV/AIDS.

1. Demography Brazil & Comparison Case study – HIV Botswana & Brazil

4. Why did changes start to take place after 1950s?

5. Transition Trap (Found early Stage 3)

11. HIV: Brazil & Botswana $519mn $188bn Debt Agri – 2.4% Indust – 4.6% Services – 50% Agri -8% Industry – 40% Services – 66% Industry $10,500 $8,400 GDP per capita PPP 4.5% 2.4% GDP growth rate 79% 86% Literacy 37.3% 0.7% HIV rate -0.04% 1.04% Pop growth rate 2.7 1.9 Fertility Rate 33yrs 71yrs Life expectancy 29 6 DR 23 16 BR 0-14 = 38% 15-64 = 58% 65+ = 3.8% 0-14 =25% 15-64 =68% 65+ = 6% Population Botswana Brazil

13. Almost 39 million people around the world are living with HIV – slightly more than the population of Poland. Nearly two-thirds of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global HIV/Aids epidemic killed 2.8 million people in 2005.

15. Botswana faces ‘extinction’ if the efforts to control are not effective The countries hit hardest by Aids, Zimbabwe and Botswana, have seen life-expectancy drop by nearly half in 15 years, when it should have been rising. Children born in 2000 in Botswana, where nearly 39% of the population are HIV positive, will live, on average, to just 39.

16. The light bars show how Botswana’s population structure is expected to look in 2020, taking the country's HIV epidemic into account. The dark bars show how it would otherwise look. The loss of a huge swathe of work-age adults will hit families and the economy alike.

17. At least 15 million children worldwide have lost one or both parents to Aids – most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The total is expected to be close to 25 million by 2010. Many orphans alive today will themselves die of Aids. Many of those who survive will have to care for younger siblings.

18. At least half the economies in sub-Saharan Africa have shrunk because of HIV. As workers die, their skills and knowledge are lost. Productivity drops while welfare costs for the sick and orphaned spiral. The proportion of the workforces of South Africa and Mozambique lost to Aids is expected to more than double between 2005 and 2020.