The document discusses India's demographic dividend and whether it will be a boon or bane. It notes that India is experiencing a decline in fertility rates and increase in life expectancy, leading to a decline in the dependency ratio and opening a window of opportunity. However, it warns that many of India's large working-age population have low educational attainment, which could limit their ability to contribute to the economy and realize the potential growth from the dividend. It concludes that while growth may create some opportunities, achieving the full potential of the dividend would require better education and skills training for the workforce.

1. Demographic DividendDemographic Dividend
BOON OR BANEBOON OR BANE
Presented By:-
Anoop MishraAnoop Mishra

2. INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION
 The demographic dividend is a window of opportunity in the
development of a society or nation that opens up as fertility rates
decline when faster rates of economic growth and human
development are possible when combined with effective policies
and markets.
 The drop in fertility rates often follows significant reductions in
child and infant mortality rates, as well as an increase in average life
expectancy.
 With fertility rates continuing to fall and older generations
having shorter life expectancies, the dependency ratio declines
dramatically.
 This demographic shift initiates the demographic dividend.

3. Growing PopulationGrowing Population

4. Age distributionAge distribution

5. YEAR 20-60 Total Population %
2005 5,39,935 10,76,00,000 50%
2020 7,44,941 13,41,00,000 56%
2050 8,72,337 15,02,00,000 58%
Working Age PopulationWorking Age Population

6. So what?So what?
Large Numbers in working age group
Likely to remain till about 2050
Low but changing dependency
But what about their educational backgrounds?

7. Some things well knownSome things well known
Between 40-50% of those enrolled drop out of school
before completing upper primary
Quality of schooling extremely poor
Most who are ‘literate’ can barely read and write their own
name
What is likely to be the ‘quality’ of the dividend’?

8.
Educational DistributionEducational Distribution
(20-60 Age Group)(20-60 Age Group)

9. India’s demographic transition in anIndia’s demographic transition in an
international perspectiveinternational perspective

10. Would the dividend be realized?Would the dividend be realized?
What will the hundreds of millions of poorly educated
do?
Not Agriculture given expected productivity
improvements
Not organized manufacturing
Not IT, not BPO, not R&D, not Financial sector, not sales
and marketing
Are things really that bleak?
58% population of working age group are from BIMARU
state.

11. What can we predict?What can we predict?
High growth can create opportunities for all
Better educational/skill attainment would open many
more opportunities
Numbers too large for the govt. to subsidize
Yes there is a dividend coming
But it could have been much larger

12. Reference:
Thank YouThank You
Reference:Reference: