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Demand Response Workshop: 25 September
Workshop Summary 
The workshop held on 25 September 2014 brought together a range of organisations and experts to explore 
demand response as a possible initiative to form part of the solution for the Powering Sydney’s Future 
Project. 
Approximately 50 representatives and experts gathered to hear about how demand response could form part 
of the solution and how TransGrid plans to pre-emptively build the demand response market. 
Workshop participants included representatives from consumer advocacy groups, academics, government 
representatives, regulators, large energy users, solution providers and other electricity networks. 
Participants were involved in interactive sessions to provide feedback on the demand response initiative.
Agenda 
 Introduction – Stephen Clark, TransGrid 
 TransGrid Lessons Learnt – Mal Coble, TransGrid 
 Dynamic Peak Rebate Trials - Hermant Kumar, 
Ausgrid 
 Powering Sydney’s Future, Demand Resource 
Specifications – Mal Coble, TransGrid
Introduction 
Stephen Clark, Executive General Manager 
Network Planning & Performance
TransGrid’s network
Powering Sydney’s Future 
Project need 
0% 
10% 
20% 
30% 
40% 
50% 
60% 
70% 
80% 
90% 
100% 
0:15 
1:15 
2:15 
3:15 
4:15 
5:15 
6:15 
7:15 
8:15 
9:15 
10:15 
11:15 
12:15 
13:15 
14:15 
15:15 
16:15 
17:15 
18:15 
19:15 
20:15 
21:15 
22:15 
23:15 
PSF Typical max day profile 2006/07 to 2013/14
Key initiatives 
Supply 
Demand 
Population 
growth
Types of demand 
management 
Demand management/ 
Non network solutions 
Demand 
response 
Local generation Energy efficiency
What is demand response? 
 An agreement from customers to curtail 
load or dispatch generation / storage at 
times of peak demand on the network 
 Also known as a ‘network support 
agreement’ 
 TransGrid’s previous demand response 
agreements: 
 350 megawatts in summer 2008/09 and 
 40 megawatts in summer 2012/13
Demand response for 
Powering Sydney’s Future 
 How can demand response 
contribute to the Powering 
Sydney’s Future need? 
 A demand response 
procurement (including ‘pre-emptive’ 
market building) has 
been proposed by TransGrid as 
a cost-effective option for the 
need 
 Demand response is 
incremental, granular and has a 
short lead time, and so can 
provide mitigation against 
undertainty of forecasts
Demand Response – where we 
have come from 
Mal Coble, Group Manager/ Network Support, 
Consultations and Pricing
Overview 
 TransGrid experience in demand management 
 Past demand management innovation activities 
 The demand management ecosystem 
 Triage database 
 Inner Sydney Metropolitan project 2012/13 
 Responses to RfPs
Past demand management 
innovation 
 Load reduction trials and research 
projects with distribution network 
businesses 
 Implementation of the latest 
technology in demand reduction 
solutions 
 Gaining an in-depth understanding 
of industrial, commercial and 
residential energy consumers
Pricing 
Mechanism 
Tiered/ Block 
Tariffs Time of Use 
Critical Peak Pricing 
Daily Managed Peak 
Real Time 
Pricing 
Response 
Mechanism 
Static Pricing Dynamic Pricing 
Power Factor 
Correction 
Energy Efficiency 
•Appliances 
•Regulations 
Distributed 
Generation 
•Solar 
•Wind 
Cogeneration 
Interruptible Loads 
Voluntary Shedding 
Fuel Substitution (& Cogeneration) 
Peak Shifting 
Water Heating 
Direct Load Control 
Stand by Generation 
Storage 
Dispatchable Load 
Demand management 
ecosystem 
Demand Response
Triage Database 
 The ‘demand management Triage Database’ 
aimed to determine possibility of demand 
response resources and whether these sources 
justify an approach to market 
 Issues sourcing data, keeping it up to date and 
accuracy
TransGrid’s demand response 
experience 
 Historical difficulty procuring 
demand response. 
 Must be right location, 
magnitude and amount 
 Possible reasons: 
 Need for market 
development 
 Need to change procurement 
process 
 Need to give more / different 
information 
9 
2 
Request for 
proposal issued 
Network support 
procured
2012/13 demand response (1) 
 TransGrid & EnergyAustralia joint planning & development in the 
Sydney Inner Metropolitan area 
 TransGrid aimed to secure network support to allow 1-2 years deferral 
 Commercial decision for TransGrid funded from bottom line 
 Request For Proposals (RFP105/09) issued December ’09 
 Up to 40MW for 2012/13 (operational risk management), procured 
 80MW for 2013/14, not attained 
 170MW for 2014/15, not attained 
 Offers did not provide network support as sought.
2012/13 demand response (1) 
80 Customer Sites 
~ 48 MWe of network support capacity 
~ 600 kWe on average for each site 
~ (16 MWe from load curtailment) 
Broadcast Media 
Career/Vocational Training 
Chemicals 
Club/RSL 
College/University 
Commercial Property 
Communication Providers 
Defence Facility 
Entertainment 
Food Processing 
Other Light Industrial 
Primary/Secondary School 
Refrigerated Warehouse 
Shopping Centres
2012/13 demand response (1) 
MW 
Low hanging fruit 
Targeted energy efficiency measures 
“Low hanging fruit” 
– Demand response 
as procured 
previously by 
TransGrid 
Generation and/or storage dispatch 
Load curtailment agreement 
Residential and small/medium enterprice 
direct load control. e.g. air conditioning or pumps (firm, non-firm) 
Res and SME DLC (non-firm) over procurement 
Pre-emptive market 
building DM 
Network need 
?
Questions
Dynamic Peak Rebate (DPR) 
for Non-Residential Customers 
Hemant Kumar, Senior Consultant - DM
Concept of Dynamic Peak Rebate (DPR) 
• Incentive to reduce, shift, interrupt or displace electrical 
22 
load for 20 – 30 peak hrs each season 
• Same as Peak Time Rebate (PTR) or Critical Peak 
Pricing (CPP) 
• A carrot vs a stick: rebate viewed more favourably, is a 
more nimble approach and has a lower program set-up 
cost 
• CPP in Australia: SP Ausnet - a tariff based program 
Concept is well established for residential customers in US
Major Stages of DPR Trial 
1. Design & development 
2. Public consultation with major stakeholders 
3. DPR Offer release, selection of aggregators and 
23 
Network Support Agreement (NSA) negotiations 
4. Dispatch Periods: Stage I was Feb - Mar 2013 & Stage II 
was Nov 2013 – Mar 2014 
5. On-going M & V, reconciliation and analysis
Lessons learnt in DPRI and implemented in DPRII 
24 
• Marketing & customer enrolment: Allow more time 
• Partial performance: Allow compensation for partial 
delivery up to 70% 
• Variations in Committed Demand Reductions (CDR): 
Changes accepted during dispatch season 
• Incentive Structure: Higher financial rewards for capability 
demonstration 
• Variety of programs: “Day Ahead” & “Day Of”
Time required to make customers dispatch-ready 
25 
• Defining program structure and fees, marketing the 
program, estimating DR capacity, making proposals 
and executing contracts 
• Activating customer meter pulse ports can take up 
to 2 - 3 months 
• Installing site servers for real-time monitoring and 
controls 
• Training site personnel and Acceptance Testing
Trial Key Features 
26 
• Financial compensation : A nominal Capability 
Demonstration and a substantial Variable Network 
Support Payment (VNSP). Higher rewards for areas of 
emerging constraints and curtailment. 
• Basis of VNSP: Reconciliation of kVA Delivered 
Demand Reduction (DDR) with Committed Demand 
Reduction (CDR) on 15 minute basis 
• Contractual Framework: Ausgrid standard Network 
Support Agreement (NSA) modified to suit New 
Baseline Methodology
New Baseline Methodology 
• Adjusted Asymmetric Dynamic Baseline: High 4s of 5 for 
27 
each site 
• CDR & DDR: CDR-Aggregators’ best kVA estimate while 
DDR is calculated based on Adjusted kVA and actual 
event day meter readings 
• M & V: Data matching - Aggregators metering data with 
Ausgrid’s own 
• No penalties but loss of VSNP for 15 min interval 
(Similar methodology on area-wise basis is used for DR programs in PJM, US)
DPR Stage II - Trial Areas 
28 
Area 
1 
Area 
2
DPR Stage II - Key Results 
• Participating sites: 38 in total – telecom exchanges, 
29 
educational establishments, RSL clubs and shopping 
centres, a data centre, commercial buildings and light 
manufacturing businesses 
• Dispatch details: Each site dispatched 6 times for 4 
hours each 
• Dispatch notifications: Using web-based tool 
• DR delivered: 5.3 – 7.3 MVA incld. 60% generation and 
40% curtailment
An example of Dispatch results 
30
Summary of Performance – 93% of CDR 
31
Lessons learnt 
• Program Structure: Bullet proof ! 
• No incidents of gaming the Baseline 
• Critical lesson 1- Deal structuring and keeping 
32 
motivation level of the ”aggregators” high 
• Critical lesson 2 -Yardstick for performance i.e. Baseline 
Methodology - as per Static Baseline Methodology, the 
DPR II trial would have delivered 10-12 MVA !!
33 
Questions?
Demand Response in TransGrid’s 
context 
Sam Christie, Network Support and Consumer 
Research Manager
Overview 
 Target areas 
 Peak demand and demand management in PSF 
context 
 Building capacity in the demand response market 
 Next steps
Target areas for 
demand response 
36 
L 
A 
K 
E 
D 
E 
E 
W 
H 
Y 
L 
A 
G 
O 
O 
N 
Sydney 
East 
Warringah 
Kuringai 
Lane 
Cove 
Mason 
Park 
Strathfield 
Carlingford 
Canterbury 
Chullora 
Bankstown 
Peakhurst 
Sydney 
South 
9S6, 
9S9 
Haymarket 
Surry Hills 
Kurnell 
Port 
Hacking 
Lindfield 
Beaconsfield West 
Bunnerong 
Cable 41 
Cable 42 
Rookwood Road 
Dalley St 
(2) 
910, 
911 
928, 929, 
92L, 92M 
91A, 91B, 
91X, 91Y 
90V, 
90W 
Rozelle 
Pyrmont 
91C, 91H, 
91L, 91M 
245, 
246 
Kogarah 
90T, 
9S2, 
9S4 
9SA, 
9SB 
906, 
907 
Primary 
target 
area 
• Effectiveness of demand response will be 
centred at Haymarket due to underlying 
constraint. 
• Effectiveness will decrease in a Westerly 
direction 
• Some areas will be more effective than others, 
for example Green Square 100% for majority 
of constraint but 10% for underlying constraint
Peak demand in Powering 
Sydney’s Future area 
100% 
90% 
80% 
70% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
PSF Typical maximum daily profile 2006/07 to 2013/14 
• Period of interest will depend on the latest 
demand forecasts for the region – the higher 
the forecast, the wider the period across the 
day that the demand response will be required 
0:15 
1:15 
2:15 
3:15 
4:15 
5:15 
6:15 
7:15 
8:15 
9:15 
10:15 
11:15 
12:15 
13:15 
14:15 
15:15 
16:15 
17:15 
18:15 
19:15 
20:15 
21:15 
22:15 
23:15
Overall Summer Load Duration 
100% 
95% 
90% 
85% 
80% 
75% 
70% 
Load duration 2006/07 to 2013/14 
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10%11%12%13%14% 
Proportion of Max Summer Demand 
Proportion of Time 
Maximum 
Average 
Minimum 
3% curtailment ranges 
from 3.5 to 23 hours 
*Load data for Sydney inner metropolitan area does not directly match the PSF project area.
Frequency and likelihood of 
peak ‘event’ 
100 
80 
60 
40 
20 
0 
November December January February March 
Number of days 
100% >99% of Max >98% of Max >97% of Max 
>96% of Max >95% of Max >94% of Max >93% of Max 
>92% of Max >91% of Max >90% of Max
Temperature dependency of 
peak demand 
34 
32 
30 
28 
26 
24 
22 
3400 
3200 
3000 
2800 
2600 
2400 
2200 
2000 
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 
Temperature (degrees celcius) 
Load (MW) 
Sydney load 
5 day average 
Temperature 
*Load data for Sydney inner metropolitan area does not directly match the PSF project area.
Powering Sydney’s Future 
Uncertainty and market building 
MW 
2500 
2000 
1500 
1000 
500 
0 
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 
Availability of 
demand 
response and 
the magnitude 
required is 
uncertain. 
Demand response 
*Forecasts are under constant review and market building portfolio of demand response will 
be continually revised as network needs change with new forecasts
Powering Sydney’s Future 
Market building portfolio 
MW 
Low hanging fruit 
Residential and 
small/medium enterprise 
direct load control 
Targeted energy efficiency measures 
Load curtailment agreement 
Generation and/or storage dispatch 
Generation and/or storage 
dispatch 
Load curtailment agreement 
Targeted energy efficiency 
measures 
Residential and small/medium enterprice 
direct load control. e.g. air conditioning or pumps (firm, non-firm) 
Res and SME DLC (non-firm) over procurement 
Pre-emptive market 
building DM 
Network need 
? 
Readily available demand 
response 
*Forecasts are under constant review and market building portfolio of demand response will 
be continually revised as network needs change with new forecasts
Who can participate and how 
 Magnitude of demand response required is 
dependent on updated forecast of peak demand 
 One or more Requests for Proposals (RfPs) may 
be issued 
 Who can participate? 
 Larger commercial and industrial customers 
 Aggregators 
 Market-building will be built into the RfP design 
(eg target certain measures or long-term 
contracts). TransGrid is asking today about which 
measures would be most appropriate to seek.
Next Steps 
June 2014 
TransGrid 
TAPR 
July- October 
Update need 
as Ausgrid 
forecasts are 
received 
Nov 2014: 
Draft Revenue 
Determination 
(2014 to 2019) 
for TransGrid 
made by AER 
December 
Ausgrid 
DAPR 
released to 
public 
Jan- 
June 
2015 
possible 
issue of 
RFP 
(TBC) 
44
Breakout session 
Questions 1: 
What risks should be considered when building 
the DM market portfolio?
Breakout session 
Questions 2: 
What risks should be considered when building 
the DM market portfolio?
Summary exercise 
What is your personal priority 
 Place a sticker to indicate your priority for each 
key area
Wrap up
Next steps
Thank you 
Stay informed and 
involved through the 
project web page 
www.yoursaytransgrid 
.com.au/psf

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Demand Response workshop - Powering Sydney

  • 2. Workshop Summary The workshop held on 25 September 2014 brought together a range of organisations and experts to explore demand response as a possible initiative to form part of the solution for the Powering Sydney’s Future Project. Approximately 50 representatives and experts gathered to hear about how demand response could form part of the solution and how TransGrid plans to pre-emptively build the demand response market. Workshop participants included representatives from consumer advocacy groups, academics, government representatives, regulators, large energy users, solution providers and other electricity networks. Participants were involved in interactive sessions to provide feedback on the demand response initiative.
  • 3. Agenda  Introduction – Stephen Clark, TransGrid  TransGrid Lessons Learnt – Mal Coble, TransGrid  Dynamic Peak Rebate Trials - Hermant Kumar, Ausgrid  Powering Sydney’s Future, Demand Resource Specifications – Mal Coble, TransGrid
  • 4. Introduction Stephen Clark, Executive General Manager Network Planning & Performance
  • 6. Powering Sydney’s Future Project need 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0:15 1:15 2:15 3:15 4:15 5:15 6:15 7:15 8:15 9:15 10:15 11:15 12:15 13:15 14:15 15:15 16:15 17:15 18:15 19:15 20:15 21:15 22:15 23:15 PSF Typical max day profile 2006/07 to 2013/14
  • 7. Key initiatives Supply Demand Population growth
  • 8. Types of demand management Demand management/ Non network solutions Demand response Local generation Energy efficiency
  • 9. What is demand response?  An agreement from customers to curtail load or dispatch generation / storage at times of peak demand on the network  Also known as a ‘network support agreement’  TransGrid’s previous demand response agreements:  350 megawatts in summer 2008/09 and  40 megawatts in summer 2012/13
  • 10. Demand response for Powering Sydney’s Future  How can demand response contribute to the Powering Sydney’s Future need?  A demand response procurement (including ‘pre-emptive’ market building) has been proposed by TransGrid as a cost-effective option for the need  Demand response is incremental, granular and has a short lead time, and so can provide mitigation against undertainty of forecasts
  • 11. Demand Response – where we have come from Mal Coble, Group Manager/ Network Support, Consultations and Pricing
  • 12. Overview  TransGrid experience in demand management  Past demand management innovation activities  The demand management ecosystem  Triage database  Inner Sydney Metropolitan project 2012/13  Responses to RfPs
  • 13. Past demand management innovation  Load reduction trials and research projects with distribution network businesses  Implementation of the latest technology in demand reduction solutions  Gaining an in-depth understanding of industrial, commercial and residential energy consumers
  • 14. Pricing Mechanism Tiered/ Block Tariffs Time of Use Critical Peak Pricing Daily Managed Peak Real Time Pricing Response Mechanism Static Pricing Dynamic Pricing Power Factor Correction Energy Efficiency •Appliances •Regulations Distributed Generation •Solar •Wind Cogeneration Interruptible Loads Voluntary Shedding Fuel Substitution (& Cogeneration) Peak Shifting Water Heating Direct Load Control Stand by Generation Storage Dispatchable Load Demand management ecosystem Demand Response
  • 15. Triage Database  The ‘demand management Triage Database’ aimed to determine possibility of demand response resources and whether these sources justify an approach to market  Issues sourcing data, keeping it up to date and accuracy
  • 16. TransGrid’s demand response experience  Historical difficulty procuring demand response.  Must be right location, magnitude and amount  Possible reasons:  Need for market development  Need to change procurement process  Need to give more / different information 9 2 Request for proposal issued Network support procured
  • 17. 2012/13 demand response (1)  TransGrid & EnergyAustralia joint planning & development in the Sydney Inner Metropolitan area  TransGrid aimed to secure network support to allow 1-2 years deferral  Commercial decision for TransGrid funded from bottom line  Request For Proposals (RFP105/09) issued December ’09  Up to 40MW for 2012/13 (operational risk management), procured  80MW for 2013/14, not attained  170MW for 2014/15, not attained  Offers did not provide network support as sought.
  • 18. 2012/13 demand response (1) 80 Customer Sites ~ 48 MWe of network support capacity ~ 600 kWe on average for each site ~ (16 MWe from load curtailment) Broadcast Media Career/Vocational Training Chemicals Club/RSL College/University Commercial Property Communication Providers Defence Facility Entertainment Food Processing Other Light Industrial Primary/Secondary School Refrigerated Warehouse Shopping Centres
  • 19. 2012/13 demand response (1) MW Low hanging fruit Targeted energy efficiency measures “Low hanging fruit” – Demand response as procured previously by TransGrid Generation and/or storage dispatch Load curtailment agreement Residential and small/medium enterprice direct load control. e.g. air conditioning or pumps (firm, non-firm) Res and SME DLC (non-firm) over procurement Pre-emptive market building DM Network need ?
  • 21. Dynamic Peak Rebate (DPR) for Non-Residential Customers Hemant Kumar, Senior Consultant - DM
  • 22. Concept of Dynamic Peak Rebate (DPR) • Incentive to reduce, shift, interrupt or displace electrical 22 load for 20 – 30 peak hrs each season • Same as Peak Time Rebate (PTR) or Critical Peak Pricing (CPP) • A carrot vs a stick: rebate viewed more favourably, is a more nimble approach and has a lower program set-up cost • CPP in Australia: SP Ausnet - a tariff based program Concept is well established for residential customers in US
  • 23. Major Stages of DPR Trial 1. Design & development 2. Public consultation with major stakeholders 3. DPR Offer release, selection of aggregators and 23 Network Support Agreement (NSA) negotiations 4. Dispatch Periods: Stage I was Feb - Mar 2013 & Stage II was Nov 2013 – Mar 2014 5. On-going M & V, reconciliation and analysis
  • 24. Lessons learnt in DPRI and implemented in DPRII 24 • Marketing & customer enrolment: Allow more time • Partial performance: Allow compensation for partial delivery up to 70% • Variations in Committed Demand Reductions (CDR): Changes accepted during dispatch season • Incentive Structure: Higher financial rewards for capability demonstration • Variety of programs: “Day Ahead” & “Day Of”
  • 25. Time required to make customers dispatch-ready 25 • Defining program structure and fees, marketing the program, estimating DR capacity, making proposals and executing contracts • Activating customer meter pulse ports can take up to 2 - 3 months • Installing site servers for real-time monitoring and controls • Training site personnel and Acceptance Testing
  • 26. Trial Key Features 26 • Financial compensation : A nominal Capability Demonstration and a substantial Variable Network Support Payment (VNSP). Higher rewards for areas of emerging constraints and curtailment. • Basis of VNSP: Reconciliation of kVA Delivered Demand Reduction (DDR) with Committed Demand Reduction (CDR) on 15 minute basis • Contractual Framework: Ausgrid standard Network Support Agreement (NSA) modified to suit New Baseline Methodology
  • 27. New Baseline Methodology • Adjusted Asymmetric Dynamic Baseline: High 4s of 5 for 27 each site • CDR & DDR: CDR-Aggregators’ best kVA estimate while DDR is calculated based on Adjusted kVA and actual event day meter readings • M & V: Data matching - Aggregators metering data with Ausgrid’s own • No penalties but loss of VSNP for 15 min interval (Similar methodology on area-wise basis is used for DR programs in PJM, US)
  • 28. DPR Stage II - Trial Areas 28 Area 1 Area 2
  • 29. DPR Stage II - Key Results • Participating sites: 38 in total – telecom exchanges, 29 educational establishments, RSL clubs and shopping centres, a data centre, commercial buildings and light manufacturing businesses • Dispatch details: Each site dispatched 6 times for 4 hours each • Dispatch notifications: Using web-based tool • DR delivered: 5.3 – 7.3 MVA incld. 60% generation and 40% curtailment
  • 30. An example of Dispatch results 30
  • 31. Summary of Performance – 93% of CDR 31
  • 32. Lessons learnt • Program Structure: Bullet proof ! • No incidents of gaming the Baseline • Critical lesson 1- Deal structuring and keeping 32 motivation level of the ”aggregators” high • Critical lesson 2 -Yardstick for performance i.e. Baseline Methodology - as per Static Baseline Methodology, the DPR II trial would have delivered 10-12 MVA !!
  • 34. Demand Response in TransGrid’s context Sam Christie, Network Support and Consumer Research Manager
  • 35. Overview  Target areas  Peak demand and demand management in PSF context  Building capacity in the demand response market  Next steps
  • 36. Target areas for demand response 36 L A K E D E E W H Y L A G O O N Sydney East Warringah Kuringai Lane Cove Mason Park Strathfield Carlingford Canterbury Chullora Bankstown Peakhurst Sydney South 9S6, 9S9 Haymarket Surry Hills Kurnell Port Hacking Lindfield Beaconsfield West Bunnerong Cable 41 Cable 42 Rookwood Road Dalley St (2) 910, 911 928, 929, 92L, 92M 91A, 91B, 91X, 91Y 90V, 90W Rozelle Pyrmont 91C, 91H, 91L, 91M 245, 246 Kogarah 90T, 9S2, 9S4 9SA, 9SB 906, 907 Primary target area • Effectiveness of demand response will be centred at Haymarket due to underlying constraint. • Effectiveness will decrease in a Westerly direction • Some areas will be more effective than others, for example Green Square 100% for majority of constraint but 10% for underlying constraint
  • 37. Peak demand in Powering Sydney’s Future area 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PSF Typical maximum daily profile 2006/07 to 2013/14 • Period of interest will depend on the latest demand forecasts for the region – the higher the forecast, the wider the period across the day that the demand response will be required 0:15 1:15 2:15 3:15 4:15 5:15 6:15 7:15 8:15 9:15 10:15 11:15 12:15 13:15 14:15 15:15 16:15 17:15 18:15 19:15 20:15 21:15 22:15 23:15
  • 38. Overall Summer Load Duration 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% Load duration 2006/07 to 2013/14 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10%11%12%13%14% Proportion of Max Summer Demand Proportion of Time Maximum Average Minimum 3% curtailment ranges from 3.5 to 23 hours *Load data for Sydney inner metropolitan area does not directly match the PSF project area.
  • 39. Frequency and likelihood of peak ‘event’ 100 80 60 40 20 0 November December January February March Number of days 100% >99% of Max >98% of Max >97% of Max >96% of Max >95% of Max >94% of Max >93% of Max >92% of Max >91% of Max >90% of Max
  • 40. Temperature dependency of peak demand 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Temperature (degrees celcius) Load (MW) Sydney load 5 day average Temperature *Load data for Sydney inner metropolitan area does not directly match the PSF project area.
  • 41. Powering Sydney’s Future Uncertainty and market building MW 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Availability of demand response and the magnitude required is uncertain. Demand response *Forecasts are under constant review and market building portfolio of demand response will be continually revised as network needs change with new forecasts
  • 42. Powering Sydney’s Future Market building portfolio MW Low hanging fruit Residential and small/medium enterprise direct load control Targeted energy efficiency measures Load curtailment agreement Generation and/or storage dispatch Generation and/or storage dispatch Load curtailment agreement Targeted energy efficiency measures Residential and small/medium enterprice direct load control. e.g. air conditioning or pumps (firm, non-firm) Res and SME DLC (non-firm) over procurement Pre-emptive market building DM Network need ? Readily available demand response *Forecasts are under constant review and market building portfolio of demand response will be continually revised as network needs change with new forecasts
  • 43. Who can participate and how  Magnitude of demand response required is dependent on updated forecast of peak demand  One or more Requests for Proposals (RfPs) may be issued  Who can participate?  Larger commercial and industrial customers  Aggregators  Market-building will be built into the RfP design (eg target certain measures or long-term contracts). TransGrid is asking today about which measures would be most appropriate to seek.
  • 44. Next Steps June 2014 TransGrid TAPR July- October Update need as Ausgrid forecasts are received Nov 2014: Draft Revenue Determination (2014 to 2019) for TransGrid made by AER December Ausgrid DAPR released to public Jan- June 2015 possible issue of RFP (TBC) 44
  • 45.
  • 46. Breakout session Questions 1: What risks should be considered when building the DM market portfolio?
  • 47. Breakout session Questions 2: What risks should be considered when building the DM market portfolio?
  • 48. Summary exercise What is your personal priority  Place a sticker to indicate your priority for each key area
  • 51. Thank you Stay informed and involved through the project web page www.yoursaytransgrid .com.au/psf

Editor's Notes

  1. Jasmine introduction
  2. -TransGrid’s overall network and focus on the significance of the inner Sydney network Aware of consumer and stakeholder expectations Currently, approximately forty 132 and 330 kV cables supply electricity to offices, warehouses, universities and residences in inner-west Sydney, Sydney CBD and eastern suburbs The seven LGAs that are being catered for in the Powering Sydney’s Future project consist of approximately 650k residents and generate approximately 27.4% of the state’s GDP. Parts of the existing network supplying the inner Sydney area are approaching the end of their service life and we need to start planning now for the future. Over a dozen (15) cables are being retired over the next decade. They are all over 35 years old. - Non-network options are area specific Primary target areas for non-network initiatives are shaded Other areas such as St George area also effective Note: Leichardt, Rozelle and areas to its west and north are broadly 0% effective.
  3. 3% curtailment 11:15 am to 5pm 1% (1pm to 5pm) 4% (10:45 am to 5pm) Very long period of peak demand – Large variety of customers in the area, commercial, industrial, residential with different behaviours driving peak demand. As a result, the mix of these drivers is a very long extended period of peak demand. Emphasize long peak demand period. DR must be capable of deployment over this long period, but the portfolio could be made up of different types of DR, over different periods, all contributing to reducing this peak. Peak is primarily driven by commercial cooling equipment (at offices, hotels, universities etc.) Residential cooling will contribute somewhat (school children arriving home from school, part time workers, retired, non-working residents), but cooling equipment typically comes on after 5 as workers arrive home so an energy efficiency focus from TransGrid may not necessarily target these and would instead focus on commercial and industrial customers in the area.
  4. Stephen Clark: Parts of the existing network supplying the inner Sydney area are approaching the end of their service life and we need to start planning now for the future. Planning inner Sydney’s future electricity network provides an opportunity to consider a range of initiatives. Project concurrently investigating multiple initiatives to develop a progressive and cost-effective solution. Explain why we are looking at these different initiatives. Explain benefits of deferring large investments. Touch on each initiative and explain that no specific decision on a solution has been made. Builder of last resort: ongoing testing/review of underlying assumptions and solutions allows more responsiveness to changing environment.
  5. Revisit what DR is: Demand response involves a deliberate short-term decision to reduce electricity usage in response to a specific event such as high peak demand period (should already be defined in earlier intro presentation) Overseas, DR has been commonly used in parts of US, parts of Europe and in New Zealand, starting from 1970s. But there is room for improvement in utilising demand response in Australia. For example...
  6. Demand response (DR) is defined by TransGrid as electricity demand management activities that curtail or shift load, generally at times of peak demand DR generally targets industrial and commercial customers, due to having potential for larger impacts Mines and agricultural loads have potential for use in DR, but not for this project DR can include energy storage devices, which can shift electricity consumption from peak to off peak times.
  7. Clearly define difference if any between DR and DM, & how these terms are used in the presentation.
  8. As part of its revenue reset proposal in 2008, TransGrid applied for and received AER approval to invest $1M a year for five years in Innovative DM projects. In its 2008 determination, the AER stated: It was prudent and reasonable for TNSPs to investigate opportunities for efficient non-network alternatives to network augmentation. Key Initiatives for TransGrid’s demand management research Joint demand management projects with DNSPs. Joint demand management research projects with universities. iDemand at Wallgrove Regional Centre. Demand Management Innovation Forum. DM Triage database of possible network support opportunities in NSW. Developing targeted customer initiatives. AER approval followed for DM Innovation Allowances to the NSW/ACT distributors: Ausgrid - $1.0M/yr Endeavour- $0.6M/yr Essential - $0.6M/yr ActewAGL- $0.1M/yr Specific projects RMIT A multi stage research project of customers to understand how residential consumers conceptualise peak demand, how they are responding to various demand management programs enabled by smart meters and smart grids, and what types of demand management incentives do and don’t work? UniQuest (University of Queensland) This project aims to provide a critique and evaluation of major international and national DRPs and technologies based on a review of available technologies and analysing them in light of the characteristics of the electricity demand in New South Wales. Warren Centre (Sydney)- Low Energy High Rise Project Summary This project engaged commercial building owners, investors, tenants and contractors and suppliers in developing a suite of initiatives to overcome the non technical barriers to energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings. The great majority of commercial high rise buildings in Australia are grossly inefficient and case studies exist to demonstrate that commercial building upgrades can cost effectively deliver energy efficiency improvements of greater than 20%. DM projects joint with DNSPs Interruptible loads Load shifting Targeted demand management programs Social marketing and education Energy efficiency awareness campaigns Energy and demand audits Dynamic control of small hot water cylinders Subsidised off peak connections Energy and demand audits Power factor correction
  9. T&D explanation - The Energy Value Chain is complex – complimentary roles Generation –Transmission –Distribution - Consumption (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) – Aggregators – Retailers - Governments/Regulators - Outside Influencers (i.e. Google, Automotive Industry) Optimizing the individual domains is only the first step - Many domains, operating at peak efficiency would actually negate or prohibit other domains from reaching their goals or sub-optimizing the system as a whole Industry is anticipating rule changes around policy responses to the AEMC Power of choice review Improving efficient and flexible price signals Improving distribution network incentives Facilitating consumer and third party participation
  10. The ‘demand management Triage Database’ aimed to determine possibility of demand response resources and whether these sources justify an approach to market Include appropriate data (incorporating quality and integrity) support decision making to procure or not Data sourcing issues Other alternatives to achieve the database’ purpose? Extrapolate/estimate DR potential based on spatial, economic and demographic data Up-to-date availability data Integration with network constraint information (maps) In consultation with the NSW distribution utilities, TransGrid is continuing to develop a DM Triage Database to support the effective assessment of DM as an option for an identified investment need. We are currently working with the NSW DNSPs to develop the mechanism to obtain an appropriate level of data taking into account the complexities surrounding data ownership, privacy and security within the NEM. This includes consideration of the related processes and procedures that would be required to support both the quality and integrity of this information on an ongoing basis. Once implemented, the database would • Allow the NSW transmission and distribution industry to quickly determine (for any major investment that must pass investment tests in particular), if there is the possibility of sufficient demand side resources within the area suitable to assist in deferring these investments; • Determine if these possible sources of network support are worthy of being scoped in more detail through an Expression of Interest or Request for Proposal or related approach to the market; and • Ensure that the decision making process is sufficiently robust over time to be able to support decisions made to not seek demand side resources if the database is shows a low probability of it being available or feasible. Triage database did not meet its original vision – due to datasourcing issues. We are now aiming to use other data sourcing methods to expand the information availability in the database
  11. There is room to increase uptake of DM in Australia. However, businesses do not readily consider DR as a possible additional revenue stream. Only small procurements have been done in the past. Possible reasons: Need for market development Need to change procurement process Need to give more / different information In TransGrid’s independent study of our consultation process, a key finding was that More notification is needed by demand response participatnts More and clearer information is needed from TransGrid to potential RfP respondents Discuss TransGrid’s experience in DR - Issued 9 RfPs, and procured for only two. 40 MW of demand management was procured by TransGrid for Sydney Inner Metropolitan area in 2012/13, primarily being DR 350 MW of demand management (both DR and embedded generation) was procured by TransGrid in summer 2007/08 in the Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong area (not just PSF area), to cost-effectively defer Western 500kV upgrade
  12. Some detail in slides, extra detail in notes below. TransGrid & EnergyAustralia joint planning & development in the Sydney Inner Metropolitan area Complex project – transmission lines (overhead and underground) and associated substation works (Holroyd & Rookwood Rd) Project capital cost – about $550 million TransGrid aimed to secure network support to allow one or two years deferral Commercial decision for TransGrid. Funded from bottom line Request For Proposals (RFP105/09) issued December 2009 SAM/MAL: Add detail about procurement process for discussion, e.g. Specifications on what, when, where, how (this will help with leading into the breakout sessions) [Hi Medard, do you still want me to address this comment? Isn’t that more the content for the PSF procurement presentation I’ll do after Hemant from Ausgrid] Up to 40MW for 2012/13 (as an operational risk management) 80MW for 2013/14 170MW for 2014/15 RFP closed February 2010 Offers did not provide network support as sought Only network support received covers operational risk mitigation for summer 2012/13 Network augmentation was to be completed by summer 2013/14
  13. Detail – through an aggregator and Ausgrid
  14. In building the DR portfolio for PSF, some portion of the portfolio could be made up of DR that we already know/expect is available due to our previous experience.
  15. All demand management (e.g. demand response, local generation) is location specific: load reduction is needed where there is excess stress on the network (cables, transformers, overhead lines etc) Generally, demand response is more effective the closer the solution is to the constraint; this does not universally apply for PSF Effectiveness factor is the variable that defines how effective a location is. - Non-network options are area specific Primary target areas for non-network initiatives are shaded Other areas such as St George area also effective Note: Leichardt, Rozelle and areas to its west and north are broadly 0% effective. Effectiveness Factors for cut-set 1 (with network state 2019-2023) under the most critical “modified N-2” outages (with optimised network ): The results listed below are for DM at Ausgrid’s 132 kV zone subs or STS’s -DM in area supply by  these ZS’s or STS’s  will have effective factor close to 100% : City South (T3 and T4), City Central (T3 and T4), City North, Dalley St, Surry Hills, Campbell St, Belmore Park, Pyrmont, Darling Harbour, --Double Bay, Waverley, Rose Bay, Clovelly, Zetland, Green square, St Peters. -DM EF at Marrickville is about 90%. -DM EF at Bunnerong, Maroubra and Kingsford is about 80%. -DM EF at Canterbury, Kurnell, Cronulla and Gwawley Bay is about 35-40%. -DM EF Peakhurst, Hurstville ,Kogarah, Bankstown, Milperra, Revesby, Menai, Port Hacking, and Kirrawee are about 10-15%. -DM EF for all other area may be 0% or even negative. Cut-set 2 Here are DM effectiveness factors (EF) for cut-set 2 (with network state 2019-2023) under the most critical “modified N-2” outages (with optimised network ). The results listed below are for DM at Ausgrid’s 132 kV zone subs or STS’s DM effective factor close to 100% : Belmore Park. DM EF close to 90%: Surry Hills, , Waverley and  Rose Bay. DM EF  close to 80%:  Dalley St. DM EF  65-70%: Campbell St, Pyrmont, Darling Harbour, Double Bay, City North, City Central (T3 & T4), City South (T3 & T4) DM EF close to 10%: Green Square. DM EF for all other area may be 0% or even negative.
  16. Peak demand: is the portion of a day where electricity usage is the highest generally occurs on very hot or very cold days, due to increased heating or cooling loads in homes and offices generally occurs in the late afternoon, due to increased household demand while offices are occupied and industrial loads still in operation. 3% curtailment would require DR to be available from 11:15 am to 5pm 1% (1pm to 5pm) 4% (10:45 am to 5pm) Very long period of peak demand – Large variety of customers in the area, commercial, industrial, residential customers all with different behaviours driving peak demand. As a result of the mix of these drivers there is a very long extended period of peak demand.
  17. Peak demand has become more ‘peaky’ As a result, overall critical peaks are shorter in duration over an entire summer, even though it appears there could still be a number of events. Events are expected to be rare, such that the overall DR requirement for a 3% curtailment would have been between 3.5 and 23 hours over an entire summer for the years 2006/07 and 2013/14. Depending upon the size of the shortfall, and the required level of curtailment, these numbers could vary. The overall conclusion is that the characteristics of peak demand have become increasingly variable. Peaks are occurring for only short periods of the summer, although could occur over a long range (in the PSF area) of time throughout the day and anytime between November and March. As a result, DM in the PSF area requires flexibility, although the shortfall needs in the PSF area may only be for short periods overall.
  18. Graph describes the number of days peak demand was within a certain percentage of the summer peak in 2006/07 to 2013/14 (8 year period) Peak demand days are typically in January or February, but are also not uncommon in November or March.
  19. 2006/07 to 2013/14- peak demand vs temp Since 2006/07 Temperature has been the main driver of peak demand. In particular, it is consecutive days of high temperatures that drive peak demand on the last day of a period of hot weather The correlation between 5 day average temperature for peak demand events, and peak demand on the 5th day is 0.84!!
  20. For the PSF area, when the constraint arises (both 2019 or 2023) there is a large step change in the network capacity. As a result, the required DR is exceptionally large compared to previous procurements. Therefore... Pre-emptive, market building procurement of DM is required, to build the capacity for demand response in the PSF project area.
  21. Combination of Pre/post contingent from various different sources Time of day Portfolio could be made up of multiple portions of DR for different periods of the day Market building Targeting hard to get DR; and New DR resources not previously procured For resources previously procured, pre-emptive targeting depends upon degree of difficulty: - i.e. What TransGrid previously procured is referred to as ‘low hanging fruit’. Include examples of each component in the portfolio Ausgrid’s recent procurement of DR using dynamic price rebates (case study presented just before this presentation) is not in the PSF area. But there are interesting lessons that can be applied to our procurement. There approach could be one of the ways TransGrid procures in the PSF area.
  22. The amount of DR procured is under constant review on the base of continuously revised forecasts. Procurement of DR will be via the issuing of an RfP. There may be more RfPs for different types of DR. TG will procure DR from a variety of sources SAM/MAL: Can we outline more about what we’re thinking for how TG will develop the market? Or do we say we’re still working it out and seek feedback in the breakout session? Prepare answer to “When is the RfP?” suggested answer: ‘the timing of the RfP will be made clearer once the latest load and forecast data is available, i.e. End of the year, as per the regular planning process. At that stage TransGrid intends to hold another forum to provide an update to stakeholders for PSF’.
  23. Note, when December Ausgrid DAPR released, TG will review the implications for PSF and provide an update to stakeholders. Any future RfP will be reviewed and revised in light of new available data.
  24. Q&A and Wrap Up
  25. -Early engagement: already commenced (local councils, this forum, other key stakeholders); reaching out to community next -Options Review: ongoing investigations on all initiatives, with a RIT-T process commencing this year. -Network Support Market Development: to develop market interest; RFPs -Environmental Assessment for cable option: critical to ensure a new cable (network infrastructure) remains an option. Will involve finalising cable route and submitting Preliminary Environmental Assessment (timing- after RIT-T has commenced this year) NO INVESTMENT DECISION MADE
  26. Close workshop with this slide Many thanks for your feedback today. Webpage will be regularly updated. Today’s presentations will be available on the website in the next few days. Welcome feedback and will tailor engagement approach to address specific needs.