1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Doha Bank: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index witnessed profit-booking yesterday and fell by around
23 points (-0.22%) to snap the six-day winning streak and closed at
10,336.13. The index reversed from its intraday high of 10,445.44 as
sellers pushed prices lower. Traders may need to watch out for
support of the 10,300.0 level, as a move below this level may trigger
selling pressure and pull the index to test 10,250.0. Conversely, if the
10,300.0 level is held the index might continue to appreciate.
The QERI Index tagged another all-time high but later reversed from
its intraday high yesterday. This action reveals that the index is in
need of some consolidation before its next upmove as buyers backed
away from higher prices. Moreover, the RSI is stalling from the rising
mode which often signals that the recent uptrend may be running out
of steam. The index needs to hold on to 2,985.84 in order to advance
toward 3,000.0 or else it may retreat to test 2,950.0.
DHBK managed to move above the resistance of QR57.40 and
tagged a new 52-week high yesterday. Moreover, the stock did not
weaken even after market turbulence, which is a positive sign. With
volumes also picking up it seems potential buyers are stepping in. We
believe if the stock manages to cling on to QR57.40 on a closing
basis it may test the January 2012 high of QR58.07. Meanwhile, the
RSI is rising in the overbought territory indicating a likely advance.
National Leasing Holding Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back
NLCS penetrated below the support of QR31.0 after failing to make
any further headway above this level. With the RSI pointing lower and
the MACD closing down near the signal line, it seems like NLCS’
preferred direction is toward the downside. We believe the stock may
drift lower and test its support of QR30.50, which is also in proximity
to the 21-day moving average. However, if the stock manages to
reclaim the QR31.0 level it may attract buyers.
WDAM eventually dipped below the support of QR48.0 after failing to
clear the stiff resistance of the 21-day moving average. Notably,
volumes were also high on the breakdown which is a negative sign.
We believe the stock currently looks weak and may head lower to test
its support of QR47.0. Moreover, the RSI is moving down and has
enough room before getting oversold, while the MACD is about to
cross the signal line into the negative territory.
IQCD developed a shooting star candle pattern on Wednesday –
which indicates exhaustion on the part of buyers and often leads to
trend reversal which was bullish until now. The stock momentarily
managed to move above the resistance of QR169.0, but failed to cling
on to it and declined for the second time this week. Moreover, both
the RSI and the MACD lines are stalling from the rising mode
indicating a likely correction. We believe IQCD may test QR166.50.
Page 1 of 2

2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
10,336.13
UP
UP
10,200.00
10,000.00
10,470.00
10,575.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
2,988.43
UP
UP
2,900.00
2,800.00
3050.00
3,125.00
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
32.25
UP
UP
24.00
23.20
32.90
33.65
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
69.80
UP
UP
63.90
62.40
84.20
87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)*
57.50
UP
UP
42.00
39.50
58.15
59.20
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
68.40
UP
UP
65.00
64.30
78.50
79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
58.40
UP
UP
47.90
45.00
60.80
61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
65.50
UP
UP
58.50
57.00
66.30
67.15
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)*
30.95
FLAT
DOWN
29.15
28.75
43.90
45.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)*
47.75
DOWN
DOWN
47.00
46.25
69.10
78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
134.50
FLAT
FLAT
129.90
128.50
138.50
140.15
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
168.50
UP
UP
144.10
142.00
175.20
176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
169.00
UP
UP
140.00
132.10
172.00
174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
58.80
UP
UP
30.50
29.50
60.15
61.25
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
40.40
UP
UP
20.36
20.00
41.50
43.75
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
28.80
UP
UP
22.80
19.50
29.90
30.50
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
23.38
UP
UP
17.06
16.00
25.30
25.90
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
138.60
UP
FLAT
108.00
98.10
146.00
148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
10.61
UP
UP
8.50
8.24
11.15
11.75
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
20.19
UP
UP
15.08
14.52
21.15
21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)
88.10
UP
UP
58.20
56.70
89.70
90.25
Banks and Financial Services
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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