The document outlines a systems thinking approach crucial for business success, emphasizing the importance of focusing on key opportunities and addressing core threats. It presents a structured methodology including understanding business as systems, iterative learning cycles, and prioritizing 'bullets' before launching 'cannonballs' for effective execution. Key insights include the need for continuous improvement, collaboration, and strategic pauses to enhance organizational performance.

1. Cycles
The simplest, proven way to
build your business.
Systems and System Thinking

2. Systems

3. Quick Recap
Increase your odds
of working on the
right things
Problem finding +
Stimulus
+ Diversity
+ Work
Ideas / solutions
worth testing
Clarity to
move
forward
Clarity First
Really Listen
Be honest
Opportunities
Death Threats

4. What’s the core message today…
View 1: To move forward effectively you need to focus your energies on the most important parts of your
business, the best way to do this is to use a systems view to identify death threats and key opportunities.
View 2: Bullets, then cannonballs.
View 3: Going slow to go fast.
Final
Understand what you’re aiming at and why,
take time to shoot bullets together,
then fire cannonballs.

5. The Theory

6. What is a system ?
2 or more independent parts working together to
achieve a common aim
A way of doing things
A good system = product of parts
6

7. Collection vs Systems
A bowl of fruit A football team AToaster
A Marriage Tools in aToolboxA Kitchen

8. System Collection

9. A system versus a process
a GOOD SYSTEM is
2 or more independent parts
working together to achieve a
common aim
a PROCESS is
A way of doing things (it
doesn’t mean people will work
together)

10. A good innovation system
• A holistic view, so you can be honest with yourself
• A momentum , a way to do things that stick
• Purpose
• Process
• Persistency

11. The big value of
systems
They keep you learning and they keep you thinking

12. a
systematic
approach
to
making
ideas
happen

13. The Reality…
Quality
Of Ideas
Time
Start
Learning
Cycles
No
Changes
Bad
Cycles
Smart
Winners
Lucky
Winners
Losers
Losers

14. Cycles: The ABC’s Of Growth.
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
Cycle 3
Cycle 4
Cycle 5
Align/Ask
Build
Communicate
Check
Systematically
Improve
Idea
Quality
Time

15. ‘Fire bullets, then cannonballs’
approach explains the success of
companies 10x better than big-leap
innovations and predictive genius
Jim Collins

16. Video :
https://vimeo.com/61581268

17. The flywheel effect
Crawl, Walk, Run
Change happens
slowly, but then it
happens all at one
Building a flywheel
Source: The flywheel Effect , Jim Collins

19. What an amazing idea !!

20. How to think in systems
1. Understand businesses are systems
2. Make room for system thinking
3. Use system thinking to identify death threats and “one things”
4. Take a systematic approach to learning

21. 3 Guys and a Genie

22. Assembling the best car ever

23. Best Parts don’t a system make!

24. The world is often not linear
Versus

25. The language of systems
Turn knob Measure Change
Causalities
Filling a glass of
water

26. Reinforcing feedback
The engine of growth and decline.
Small changes amplify causing accelerated growth
or decline.

27. Balancing Feedback
Goal-oriented behavior
Limits growth or decline
Resistance to change is a balancing process

29. A simpler process
diagram for a new
product
(and your case study)

30. Launch
Product
Sell
Product
Partner Support and profit for partners
Case Studies
Link to Sprint Ideas
Link to other methods
I
Interest
Real
Benefits
Links to
Other
Methods
Clear
Benefits
A
Aware
Articles
Books
Talks
Social media
A
Act (Buy)
Dramatic
Difference
Emotions
Remove Risks
Fit with existing
Programs
D
Desire
Reason
to
believe
Emotions
Remove Risks
Fit with existing
Programs

31. How to think in systems
1. Understand businesses are systems
2. Make room for system thinking
3. Use system thinking to identify death threats and “one things”
4. Take a systematic approach to learning

32. We resist system
thinking
Because it is harder and usually more confrontational

34. Some old, but very good advice
1. Appreciation of a system
2. Understand Variation
Common Causes vs Special Causes
3. Understand human behavior
4. Theory of knowledge 20171982 1993

35. Understanding Systems
A system is complex.
It is made up of interrelated
components of people and
processes with a clearly (or
unclearly) defined, shared
destination or goal.
Appreciation of a system
depends on quality leaders’
understanding the
interconnectedness and
interdependence.
In a good orchestra people play together
The same should happen in business

36. Variation
Common Cause versus Special Cause
Common Cause
• Is inherent in the design of the
process
• Is due to regular, natural or
ordinary causes
• Affects all the outcomes of a
process
• Results in a “stable” process that is
predictable Also known as random
or unassignable variation
Special Cause
• Is due to irregular or unnatural
causes that are not inherent in the
design of the process
• Affect some, but not necessarily all
aspects of the process
• Results in an “unstable”” process
that is not predictable
• Also known as non-random o

37. Common cause or
Special Cause ?

38. Common Cause or Special Cause
• Innovation does not work in 94% of organizations
• You’re late for class because of a flat tire
• You’re always late for class
• 85% of start-ups fail
Deming estimates : 94% of problems are due to common
causes and are management's responsibility. He estimates that
only 6% of problems are due to special causes

39. Understand human behavior
Most psychologists agree that humans have an innate
desire to perform well, to take pride in what they do.
Successful organizations harness this by ensuring that
systems allow workers to contribute towards
improvement.
Theory of knowledge
Improvement isn’t something you do once and forget
about, it isn’t a process with an end-point. Improvement
within an organization has to be continuous.

40. How to think in systems
1. Understand businesses are systems
2. Make room for system thinking
3. Use system thinking to identify death threats and “one things”
4. Take a systematic approach to learning

41. It’s Easy To Ignore What You Don’t Want
To Do.
The Stockdale Paradox (Named after Vietnam Prisoner of
War)
Retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the
difficulties. AND at the same time confront the most brutal
facts of your current reality, whatever they might be

42. ++ +++ - +++
+ + + +
Failure
Success
Success is about getting everything “good
enough”

43. ++ +++ - +++ Failure
Success
++ +++ + +++
Option 1: You can fix a “death threat”

44. ++ +++ - +++ Failure
Success
+++ ++++ + +++
Option 2 You can find a “one thing”, that makes many things
better

45. Launch
Product
Sell
Product
I
Interest
Real
Benefits
Links to
Other
Methods
Clear
Benefits
A
Aware
Articles
Books
Talks
Social media
A
Act (Buy)
Dramatic
Difference
Emotions
Remove Risks
Fit with existing
Programs
D
Desire
Reason
to
believe
Emotions
Remove Risks
Fit with existing
Programs
Partner Support and profit for partners
Case Studies
Link to Sprint Ideas
Link to other methods

46. 2 ways to be really effective
multi-tasking to
“unitasking”
parallel to
sequential

47. A simple example
With
Current 40 hours
Web site right 80% 90% 90% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Better Laptop 80% 99% 80% 99% 80% 80% 80%
Co-founder 30% 60% 30% 30% 60% 30% 30%
Product 80% 90% 80% 80% 80% 90% 80%
Pricing 40% 75% 40% 40% 40% 40% 75%

48. The most powerful tool ever invented
for a start-up
Do Now Do Later Don't do

49. Slower is faster !
A study by Economist intelligence with 312 companies split into
2 groups:
1. Go, go, go
2. Think, go , think, go (paused at strategic moments)
The companies with strategic pauses achieved:
40% higher sales and 52% higher profits

50. How to think in systems
1. Understand businesses are systems
2. Make room for system thinking
3. Use system thinking to identify death threats and “one things”
4. Take a systematic approach to learning

51. What does it mean to learn as you go?
Quite Simply…
1. Test
2. Learn
3. Take Action

52. Mini versus Maxi Learning cycles
Mini
Low stakes
beta test
Bullet
Maxi
High stakes
investment
Cannonball

53. Your hypothesis
matters
Hypothesis, Test, Learn
Take Action

54. A system of Active learning =
The heart of Innovation
• Holistic and honest view.
• Accept and Overcome business shortcomings.
• Momentum: a way to doing things that stick
• Purpose
• Process
• Persistency
• Making decisions and taking action as you go
An Innovation system is incomplete without active
learning

55. Quick Recap
Increase your odds
of working on the
right things
Problem finding +
Stimulus
+ Diversity
+ Work
Ideas / solutions
worth testing
Clarity to
move
forward
Clarity First
Really Listen
Be honest
Opportunities
Death Threats
Understand
Analyse
Make decisions
A smart next step
A little or a big
cycle

56. If you got it right,
launch
cannonballs.
If not, fire more
bullets or try
1.Understand what you’re
aiming at and why
Alignment
2.Look for better solutions
Build
3.Check progress
Communicate + Check
4.Make decisions
Systems