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Business, Market & Competitive Intelligence See Clearly, Think Ahead, Break Through Arik R. Johnson CVTC Daybreak Breakfast Session CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Eau Claire, Wisconsin Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com  Wednesday 5 March 2008
Why do cars have brakes? ,[object Object],Most people would say brakes help slow you down… we think brakes help you go faster.
Strategic Competitive Intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CI is About Minimizing Threats & Maximizing Opportunities   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
SCIP Code of Ethics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning &  Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users &  Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is About Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions
Three Intelligence Trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CI is About Better Decision-Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and  Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect  Competitors Direct  Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns
The Product Life Cycle
Strategic & Tactical Realms of Competitive Advantage
CI is a Critical Element in Strategy COMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCES Strategic Position Strategic Position Competitive Position Market Attractiveness Scope & Context Strategic Issues Insight Stakeholder Score Card Financial Position Growth Economic Profitability Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators  Performance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation Organizational Design Projects & Resources CAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCE Chosen Strategy Scenarios & Options Creativity Strategy Execution Strategy Formulation
Porter’s Five Forces Model
The 12 Application Priorities of CI ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research Collection Sources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],No Company Operates in Isolation Information is exchanged everywhere money is exchanged.
Analysis is Key The Difference Between Data and Intelligence “ The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.” Intelligence: The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision “ After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.” Analysis: Distilled information “ Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.” Information: A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors 2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.” 2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.” Data: Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors
Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
Strategic Intelligence ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Strategy Square
Growth Vector Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],  Present Products Improved Products New Products Existing Market Market Penetration Product Extension Product Development Expanded Market Market Extension Market Segmentation / Product Differentiation Product Development / Market Extension New Market Market Development Product/Service Extension & Market Development Diversification
Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis
Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage   ID   Evaluate  Due    Consum- Criteria    Targets   Analyze  Diligence  Recommend  Negotiation  mation  Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units   Finance   Technical Assessment   Legal Executives   M&A Specialists Transition Team   Logistics   HR
Seven Steps to Effective Competitive Benchmarking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Intelligence Topics (KITs) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Strategic Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Key Players ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KITs – Early Warning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Creating the Integrated Watch List ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition Aggregate content, tag & categorize Hypertext links to similar content Personalization from forms/questionnaires  geodemographic profiling   Searching for information E-mailing  information to relevant  recipients Reformatting for multi- channel delivery, e.g. PDF to XML Answering customer inquiries via a help desk Manual Processes Process Automation Aggregation Automatic Categorization Hyperlinking Profiling Personalization Collaboration Delivery Retrieval Routing Alerting Integration Through Understanding Information  Theory and Bayesian  Inference Notes News  Feeds Email Internet Database Files Document Management XML Audio/ Media
Success Breeds Complacency ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Duality Continuum of Intelligence Both  Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical
The Insight Method ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Ideal Analyst = Investigative Journalist ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest
Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
Disruptive Technology
Value Chain Evolution Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
Consumer Demand & Signals of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Established Companies almost always Lose to Disruptive Innovators
Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation MONTHS   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  15  18  21
In-depth interviews with top management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation Threshing out Global Chemicals’ specific needs for Competitive Intelligence Key Intelligence Topics Evaluating current CI practices, systems, difficulties & expectations CI Capabilities & Uses
Designing a customized CI system ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation
Experimenting with a tailored CI prototype Acceptance Authority Education Designation Project Execution Monitoring Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measuring value & fine-tuning Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation Process Outcome Costs Effort Acceptance Usability Setting output standards  Gauging goal attainment  Through observation, survey & in-depth discussion with key users & executives from both  regional & local offices Making required adjustment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
System roll-out to other business units Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation ADJUST ,[object Object],[object Object],PLAN ,[object Object],[object Object],EXECUTE ,[object Object],[object Object],EVALUATE ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assessment  Development  Pilot Test  Evaluation Implementation
External Competitive Environment Key Executive Users of Intelligence 3rd Party CI support Central CI Unit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Internal CI Initiatives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],External CI Sources
The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
Marshall McLuhan ,[object Object],Strategy is concerned with what the corporation wants to do in the world, while Intelligence is focused on what the world wants to do to the corporation.
Questions or Comments? ,[object Object],Arik R. Johnson Intelligence Leadership Institute [email_address] +01-715-720-1616 Derek L. Johnson Research & Analysis Bureau [email_address] +01-608-268-3470

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Cvtc Daybreak 20080305

  • 1. Business, Market & Competitive Intelligence See Clearly, Think Ahead, Break Through Arik R. Johnson CVTC Daybreak Breakfast Session CEO & Managing Director, Aurora WDC Eau Claire, Wisconsin Arik.Johnson@AuroraWDC.com Wednesday 5 March 2008
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.  
  • 7. Traditional CI Follows a Disciplined Process for Information Collection and Analysis Deliver, Inform & Recommend Planning & Direction Secondary Research Analysis & Production Primary Research Tactical Users & Strategic Decision Makers Needs The Traditional CI Cycle
  • 8. Competitors, Customers & Technologies Are Complex Interdependencies CI is About Learning to See Clearly through Market Illusions
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Impacts on Planning & Execution Your Company’s Plans and Execution Vision and Grand Strategy Strategic Plans Market Success Operational Projects and Programs Tactical Execution Other (More-or-Less) “Uncontrollables” Competitors’ Plans and Actions New Forms of Competition X Y Z P Q R A B C Indirect Competitors Direct Competitors Government and Regulatory The Economy Technology Market Trends Industry Rationalization Other Unknowns
  • 13. Strategic & Tactical Realms of Competitive Advantage
  • 14. CI is a Critical Element in Strategy COMMERCIAL MARKET STRUCTURE & RESOURCES Strategic Position Strategic Position Competitive Position Market Attractiveness Scope & Context Strategic Issues Insight Stakeholder Score Card Financial Position Growth Economic Profitability Critical Success Factors & Key Performance Indicators Performance Monitoring & Incentive Compensation Organizational Design Projects & Resources CAPITAL MARKET MANAGED PERFORMANCE Chosen Strategy Scenarios & Options Creativity Strategy Execution Strategy Formulation
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Analysis is Key The Difference Between Data and Intelligence “ The competitor would make a good acquisition candidate. Its lean & mean structure would fit well with our current operations.” Intelligence: The insight that will allow you to make an informed decision “ After gathering more operational information and running a side-by-side profit & loss analysis, it appears the competitor has become highly efficient. It exceeds industry standards and has become a best-in-class facility.” Analysis: Distilled information “ Based on the D&B and the salesperson’s report, it appears the competitor has lost business.” Information: A pooling of these bits of facts, observations and rumors 2001: “The D&B report told us that the competitors plant had 100 employees.” 2004: “One of our salespeople just passed by the competitor’s plant and spotted only 30 cars in the lot.” Data: Scattered bits and pieces of facts, observations and rumors
  • 19. Two Fundamental Competitive Analysis Examples SWOT Analysis Core Competence
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Tactical CI Project Example: Cost Analysis
  • 23. Level of CI Involvement in M&A Stage ID Evaluate Due Consum- Criteria Targets Analyze Diligence Recommend Negotiation mation Integration Level of CI Involvement High Low Intelligence Research Business Units Finance Technical Assessment Legal Executives M&A Specialists Transition Team Logistics HR
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Source Extraction & Pattern Recognition Aggregate content, tag & categorize Hypertext links to similar content Personalization from forms/questionnaires geodemographic profiling Searching for information E-mailing information to relevant recipients Reformatting for multi- channel delivery, e.g. PDF to XML Answering customer inquiries via a help desk Manual Processes Process Automation Aggregation Automatic Categorization Hyperlinking Profiling Personalization Collaboration Delivery Retrieval Routing Alerting Integration Through Understanding Information Theory and Bayesian Inference Notes News Feeds Email Internet Database Files Document Management XML Audio/ Media
  • 31.
  • 32. The Duality Continuum of Intelligence Both Decisive & Incisive Sensing Incisive Scanning for Trends, there is no “Decision” to be made Recognize “Pattern Vector” History Framework for Interpretation Implications for the Reader Bottom-Up Exposition Driven by Trends Outcome is Observation Emergent & Theoretical Decisive Frame of Reference is the Decision, Less Trend-Dependent Framework for Current Analysis Compares Options & Outcomes Recommendations and Trust Top-Down Imposition Driven by Issues Decision & Action vs. ‘Nariyuki’ Factual & Hypothetical
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Different Missions, Different Approaches Specialist Slower Production Less Output, More Analytical Agenda Driven by Contact Network Lots of Subject Matter Knowledge Seeks Explanation of the Subject Investigative Very Slow, Curious, Historical Little Output, Highly Analytical Questions Official Positions, Listens to Nonspokesmen Operates Outside Routine Agenda of the Publisher Generalist In a Hurry Lots of Output, Less Analytical Agenda Driven by the Publisher Little Knowledge of Subject Matter Seeks Volume of Public Interest
  • 36. Consumers “Hire” Products to Do “Jobs” for Them Concentrate Less on What Customers “Want” and More on What Customers “Need”
  • 37. Disruptive Innovation Theory Sustaining Innovations Better Products Brought to Established Markets Low-End Disruptions Target Overshot Customers with a Lower Cost Business Model New-Market Disruption Compete Against Nonconsumption Difference Performance Measure Time Nonconsumers or Nonconsuming Contexts Performance
  • 39.
  • 40. RPV Theory: Building Capabilities Processes Ways to Turn Resources into Products/Services Hiring/Training Product Dev. Manufacturing Budgeting Research Values Prioritization Criteria for Decision-Making Cost Structure Income Statement Customer Demand Opp. Size Ethics Resources Assets the Firm can Buy or Sell, Build or Destroy People Technology Products Equipment Cash/Brand/Distr.
  • 41.
  • 42. Process of Predicting Industry Change Signals of Change Strategic Choices Influencing Success Likely Outcome of Competitive Battles
  • 43. Assessment Development Pilot Test Evaluation Implementation MONTHS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 21
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. The CI Think Tank Model TASKING > SENSING > INTERPRETATION
  • 52.
  • 53.