Presentation at "Sustainable Resilient Energy Infrastructure: Managing Growing Cities", an event in Washington hosted by the CSIS Energy and National Security Program on April 7, 2015. The event was part of the CSIS Global Sustainability Series, which investigates the role of the private sector in engaging with the U.S. government, host governments, and NGOs to help address some of the world's most complex global sustainable development issues.

1. Sustainable Resilient Energy
Infrastructure
Peter Evans, PhD
Vice President
Center for Global Enterprise
April 7, 2015
CSIS Global Sustainability Series
Washington, DC

2. Growing attention to resilience

3. Resilience to what?
Types of Shocks/ Disruptions
Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological Climatological
• Earthquake
• Volcano
• Mass Movement
[Dry]
Rockfall
Landslide
Avalanche
Subsidencer
• Floods
General Flood
Flash Flood
Storm Surge
Coastal Flood
• Mass Movement
[Wet]
Rockfall
Landslide
Avalanche
Subsidence
• Storms
Tropical Cyclone
Extra-Tropical Cyclone
Local Storm
• Extreme Temp
Heat Wave
Cold Wave
Extreme Winter Condition
• Drought
• Wildfire
Forest Fire
Land Fire
Source: Adapted from Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (2010)

4. Who is vulnerable?
~60% of major cities/ ~1 billion people at risk to at least 1 major natural disaster
*Risks to
cyclones,
droughts,
earthquakes,
floods, landslides,
and volcanic
eruptions
Source: UN DESA/Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision
*Notes: Includes cities with more than 750,000 inhabitants in 2011.
Hazards
World’s major cities face multiple natural hazards*

5. World-wide natural disasters 2014
Source: Munich Re, 2013
Geophysical events
(earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events
(storm)
Selection of significant
Natural catastrophes
Natural catastrophes Hydrological events
(flood, mass movement)
Climatological events
(extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As of January 2015
Major Loss Events

6. World-wide natural disaster trends
Source: “NAT CAT 2014: What’s Going on with the Weather?” Munich Re, January 7, 2015
Annual rate of events has more than doubled since 1980

7. New public policy imperative
Building resilient and sustainable infrastructure (RSI)
Source: P. Evans, 2013
“RSI”
Status
Quo
Greener
Environmental
footprint
reduction
H
L
Robust
Resilient
L H

8. What is resilience?
1 Diversification
3 Couple / decouple
4 Pooling/ coordination
Redundancy5
2 Intelligence
Resilience… the
ability to bounce back
faster after a stress or
shock, endure greater
stress or shock, and/or
minimize the impact of
a stress or shock.
Diverse solutions

9. Greater network linkages raise risk of cascading failures
Truck
network
Railroad
network
Natural gas
pipelines
Shale revolution is
creating incentives for new
network connections that
previously did not exits
Problem of network linkages
Example of rail + natural gas + trucking

10. Timing… Where should we invest?
Time
Critical
Assets
Risk Mitigation Recovery
Disaster
Preparation
Response
Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, “A Vision for Managing Natural Disaster Risk”, April 2011
Before, during or after shocks?
Business continuity
Before During After

11. Who pays?
Flows of disaster recovery funding
Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Naren Ramakrishnan, James Bohlandy, Discovery Analytics
Center, Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, 2014
1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
• Major infrastructure across
the Bay Area was destroyed or
closed for an extended period
• Damage exceeded $6 billion
• Recovery funding often
involves a complex array of
organizations and flows of
funding
Post-disaster financial flows

12. Post Disaster Recovery Funding
Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Naren Ramakrishnan, James Bohlandy, Discovery Analytics
Center, Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, 2014

13. Are we doing enough to spur innovation?
New products, services, business models, policy approaches
CROSS THE
CHASM
SCALE THE
BUSINESS
RUN THE
BUSINESS
OPTIMIZE
THE
BUSINESS
1 2 3 4 5
GET TO
MARKET
CommercializationEarly Stage
Source: P. Evans, Future of Energy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, April 23, 2013.

14. Our Energy Future
Some key challenges
Establishing resilient and sustainable energy systems
• Timing… incentivizing right allocation of resilience
investment before, during and after shocks
• Funding… Resolving the issues of who pays… tax
payers, rate payers, others?
• Innovation… Assessing where innovation can be
encouraged that achieves both sustainability and
resilience goals.

15. Sustainable Resilient Energy
Infrastructure
Peter Evans, PhD
Vice President
Center for Global Enterprise
April 7, 2015
CSIS Global Sustainability Series
Washington, DC