Translating science to action

1. © Crown copyright Met Office
Translating science to action
Haiyan to Hagupit
Paul Davies, Chief Meteorologist

2. Typhoon Haiyan

3. © Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission :
summary and conclusions
Going the extra mile – can science deliver??
“I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it
be taken by a storm surge”
STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA
2014

4. © Crown copyright Met Office
WMO Fact Finding Mission :
summary and conclusions
Why did many people stay in their homes and
did not move to safety?
Possible reasons:
• Did not know of the danger
• They knew about it but chose to ignore it
• Many people didn’t understand the science such as
what is meant by ‘storm surge’ or how far the water
would go
• Some people moved to evacuation centres which
turned out to be in the inundation area – some died
there

5. Typhoon -> Hazards

6. Typhoon -> Primary
Lightning

7. Typhoon -> Secondary
Storm Surge

8. Typhoon -> Secondary
Storm Surge

9. Typhoon -> Secondary
Flood inundation

10. Typhoon -> Tertiary
Health and increased vulnerability

11. © Crown copyright Met Office
Typhoon Hagupit:

12. (1) Observations
(3) Forecast winds, rainfall,
temperatures…
Big Data, Big Science
(2) Models
Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations,
completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012)
bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day

13. Big Data, Big Science
Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations,
completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012)
bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day

14. “…bridging the Valley of Death…through effective
translation and application of science”

15. The 4.4 km
Typhoon Hagupit
Global (deterministic) 4.4 km downscaler (from determinsitic)
4.4 domain

16. Typhoon Hagupit:
Ensembles

17. TWO scenarios
1. Landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy
rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides.
Probability 70%
2. Landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards:
wind and storm surge. Probability 30%.

18. Coping with Hurricanes/Typhoons
Weather and
climate extremes
Weather analyses
& forecast data
Hurricane track,
size, & intensity
Implementation of
evacuation &
recovery plans
Reducing risk &
response
scenarios
Mitigation strategies
Affected population
& infrastructure,
disruption of services,
damages due to wind
& water, etc.
Impact
Estimation
Placing into
situational context
Storm surge, flooding,
inundated areas
Weather
Translation to
hazards
Extraction of
relevant information
to predict hazards

19. Holistic approach to impact
and risk
GEO-PHYSICAL
HAZARD
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
Socio-Economic
IMPACT
QUANTIFYING
&
REDUCING RISK
WEATHER &
CLIMATE
EXTREMES
Major Uncertainty
Some progress, still a limiting factor
Considerable progress

20. Advice on impacts