The challenge in disaster early warnings is to make the best possible decisions quickly using imperfect information. With lives and livelihoods at stake, there is much pressure to get it right. But one can’t be timely and perfectly accurate at the same time. We have come a long way since the devastating Boxing Day tsunami of December 2004 caught Indian Ocean countries by surprise. Many of the over 230,000 people killed that day could have been saved by timely coastal evacuations. The good news is that advances in science and communications technology, greater international cooperation, and revamped national systems have vastly improved tsunami early warnings during the past decade. However, some critical gaps and challenges remain. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (IOTWS) was set up in 2005 under UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Over USD 400 million has been invested in state of the art equipment for rapid detection and assessment. However, the system’s overall effectiveness is limited by poor local infrastructure and lack of preparedness. Some countries also lack efficient decision-making for issuing national level warnings based on regionally provided rapid assessments. Warnings must reach communities at risk early enough for action. False warnings can cause major economic losses and reduce compliance with future evacuation orders. Only governments can balance these factors. It is important that there be clearer protocols within governments to consider the best available information and make the necessary decisions quickly. Now, the proliferation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is making this delicate balance even more difficult. To remain effective in the always-connected and chattering Global Village, disaster managers have to rethink their engagement strategies. Controlled release of information is no longer an option for governments. In the age of 24/7 news channels and social media, many people will learn of breaking disasters independently of official sources. Some social media users will also express their views instantly – and not always accurately. How can this multiplicity of information sources and peddlers be harnessed in the best public interest? What are the policy options for governments, and responsibilities for technical experts? How to nurture public trust, the ‘lubricant’ that helps move the wheels of law and order - as well as public safety - in the right direction?

1. ICT Applications for Disaster Prevention and Treatment
Crying Wolf
in the Global Village?
Managing Disaster Early Warnings
in the Age of Social Media
By Nalaka Gunawardene
Science writer & Columnist, Sri Lanka
at
AASSA Regional Workshop on
Role of S&T in Disaster Management and
Community Preparedness
Jakarta, Indonesia:
8 – 9 December 2015

2. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Coverage…
 Early warning as life-saving critical info
 Tsunami warnings: a race against time
 Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System
 Challenges posed by web & social media
 Case study: Tsunami warning of 11 April 2012
 Dealing with false alarms
 Nurturing public trust in early warnings
 Covering the ‘long last mile’ in dissemination

3. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Timely warnings
can and do save lives!
 Issuing disaster early
warnings is both a science
and an art.
 When done well, it can
save many lives…
 …but ONLY IF the warnings
quickly reach all at risk…
 AND they know what to do

4. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
26 Dec 2004:
Never Say ‘Never Again’?
 Tsunami was detected
and that info shared
quickly by scientists
 But NO public warnings
at most locations hit
 Quick evacuation could
have saved many lives
 “Never again!”

5. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Key elements of a good
early warning system
 Adequate technological capability for:
 Detection
 Reliable but quick assessment
 Effective Dissemination of warning
 Clear decision-making procedures at
national level (to warn or not to warn)
 Multiple, redundant communications
systems to disseminate warnings
 Well prepared communities

6. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Warning ‘Window’ varies…
 Rapid onset disasters (tsunamis, flash
floods) allow only a tight window from
detection to impact: 15 to 90 minutes.
 Other hazards (cyclones, floods) may
occur within a few hours or days from
detection.
 Multi-hazard warning systems need to
be versatile & adaptable

7. Crying Wolf in the Global Village

8. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Tsunami warnings: A Race against time!

9. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Science of detection has improved
 In 2004: Pacific Tsunami Warning
Centre (PTWC) in Hawaii needed an
average 18 minutes to process
monitoring data & issue a warning.
 By 2014: That time has been reduced
to 7 minutes (source: Stuart
Weinstein, PTWC’s deputy director)
 This allows a bit more time for
deciding & acting on it at nat. levels!

10. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning
System (IOTWS)
 Started in 2005: UNESCO leadership
 Inter-govt arrangement: 28 countries
that ring Indian Ocean
 Australia, Indonesia & India responsible
for issuing regional tsunami warnings
 Operates in parallel service with Pacific
Tsunami Warning Centre (PWTC) &
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
 http://iotic.ioc-unesco.org

11. Crying Wolf in the Global Village

12. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Indian Ocean Tsunami Warnings:
Unfinished business
 Sophisticated warning system costing
over USD 400m now in place
 Effectiveness is limited by poor local
infrastructure, lack of preparedness
 Some countries lack efficient decision-
making for issuing national warnings
 Everyone is not yet clear of various
terms used in tsunami early warnings
 Can lead to confusion, even chaos

13. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Many (incl. media) confuse these
message levels (esp in local langs)!
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/?page=message_definitions

14. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
This can still happen…

15. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Indian Ocean Tsunami Warnings:
Are We Ready?
Reuters investigation, Dec 2014:
“For millions in coastal areas, warnings don't
always get through, thanks to bureaucratic
confusion and geography. In the most
vulnerable areas, infrastructure is wanting,
and many lack the basic knowledge to
keep themselves safe from the deadly
waves.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tsunami-
anniversary-warning-idUSKBN0JZ03220141222

16. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
A new challenge:
Rise of web & social media
 Govts no longer have options of:
 Monopoly over info; or
 Controlled release of info
 With 24/7 news channels & social media: many
people learn of breaking disasters independently of
official sources
 Some social media users also:
 Instantly share such info (with or without verifying)
 Add own views – not always accurately
 What can be done to avoid panic & chaos?

17. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
SciDev.Net
global edition:
Op-ed on 6 Feb
2013 by Rohan
Samarajiva &
Nalaka
Gunawardene
https://shar.es
/1cUUls

18. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Did that happen on 11 Apr 2012?

19. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Case study:
Events on 11 April 2012
 8.6-magnitude quake occurred beneath ocean
floor southwest of Banda Aceh, Indonesia
 Several I/O countries issued quick warnings and
some also ordered coastal evacuations
 Thai authorities shut down Phuket Int. Airport
 Chennai port in southern India closed for a few hours
 In the end, quake did not generate a tsunami
 …but it triggered considerable panic and chaos in
South & Southeast Asia

20. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Sri Lanka’s reaction on
11 April 2012
 Coastal bus & train services stopped: thousands
stranded
 Electricity shut down in coastal areas for hours
 Public offices abruptly closed early afternoon
 Dept of Meteorology (designated national tsunami
warning body) used only live phone interviews on
radio & TV to warn people…
 …But NOT its own website or social media feeds
 A few of us journalists & cyber-activists kept on
tweeting ground-level updates + relaying news from
global wire services  some calming effect

21. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Communication Lessons
of 11 April 2012 quake
 Govts must communicate in a timely and
authoritative manner during crises, using
BOTH conventional AND new media
 If not, that vacuum online will be filled by
multiple voices.
 Some of those may be untrue, speculative, or
mischievously false  confusion & panic
 Crying Wolf in the Global Village is easy!

22. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Precious element: TRUST
 “Disaster early warnings are pure
public goods… Public trust is the
lubricant that will move the wheels
of law and order as well as public
safety in the right direction.”
- Nurturing Public Trust in Times of
Crisis: Lessons of April 11 quake
Op-ed by Nalaka Gunawardene
Groundviews.org 26 April 2012
http://goo.gl/s1Xokf

23. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
How to cope with
False Alarms?
 Unavoidable: when rapid decisions are made
using imperfect info, errors of judgement can
(and do) happen
 E.g. 3 out of every 4 tsunami related coastal
evacuations in Hawaii called by PTWC have
later proved unnecessary
 BUT…PTWC has never missed any tsunami
that happened since its inception in 1949

24. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Tropical Cycline Sidr Nov 2007:
Was public trust eroded?
 Too many false alarms and
evacuation orders  indifference
 As seen in southern Bangladesh in
Nov 2007?
 As tropical Cyclone Sidr
approached, some communities
ignored warnings  1,000+ died
 Found: A false tsunami alert and
evacuation 2 months earlier had
eroded trust in country’s well-
established early warning system

25. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
What can be done?
Fully cover the ‘Long Last Mile’!
 “While the establishment of the Indian
Ocean Tsunami Warning System is a
major leap forward, ‘the last mile’
outreach continues to be the challenge
in the region. Gaps may exist in local
level preparedness, including those
related to dissemination of warnings.”
- Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, regional
adviser on disaster risk reduction at
UN-ESCAP, Bangkok (Dec 2014)

26. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
What can be done?
If you can’t beat ‘em…
 Govt agencies need to add social
media to existing methods (radio, TV,
SMS) of disseminating early warnings
 On-going social media engagement by
agencies nurtures PUBLIC TRUST
 Adopt & follow clear protocols for
social media communications:
 Philippines govt’s standard #hashtags for
use during disasters (mid 2014)
 UN-OCHA adapting Philippines good
practice for global use (Dec 2014)

27. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
UN-OCHA has proposed
3 types of DRR related #hashtags
 Disaster title hashtags (e.g. #Sandy) to used by anyone to
generally comment on an emergency (e.g. Hurricane Sandy)
and would not be actively monitored by response agencies.
 Public reporting hashtags. Specific hashtag for citizens to
report non-life-threatening emergency items they see (e.g.
#311US for broken power lines or a damaged bridge in USA)
 resulting data could be scanned, mined and filtered to the
relevant responding agencies.
 Emergency response hashtags. Standard hashtag to trigger
emergency response, based on local standards (e.g. #911US
for USA): enables citizens to tag content that is absolutely
critical & also enables responders to set up dedicated social
media monitoring tools

28. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Summing up…
 Positive trends since 2004:
 Advances in science of disaster detection
 Advances in comm. technologies & coverage
 Greater international cooperation in Indian Ocean
 Revamped national disaster management systems
 Challenges that need to be met:
 Social media cacophony: nurture trust & credibility
 Fully covering the Long Last Mile of dissemination

29. Crying Wolf in the Global Village
Thank You…
#StaySafe!
#VerifyInfo
#Share!
Email: alien@nalaka.org
Blog: http://nalakagunawardene.com
Twitter: @NalakaG
www.facebook.com/nalaka.gunawardene
nalakagunawardene.com