This slide deck provides a summary of a presention made by Richard Vines and Craig Beverly (in absentia) at the 2018 Irrigation Australia International Conference. Tne Northern Victoria Water Policy Model is discussed as an example of an emergent "public knowledge space". This model was developed wihin the context of the introduction of Sustainable Diversion Limits (SDLs) as part of the Australian Murray Darling Basin plan.

1. Crop water informatics, bio-economic
modelling and creating the conditions
for resilient irrigated agriculture: A
strategic assessment of some
emerging capabilities
A case study
drawing upon the
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model (NVWPM)
Richard
Vines
Craig
Beverly
(In absentia)

2. What is the Northern Victoria Water
Policy (NVWPM) model?
The NVWPM is a numerical model originally first developed to :
• Model impacts of introducing Sustainable Diversion Limits (SDLs) by the Murray
Darling Basin Plan;
• Inform farm responses in view of reducing water availability;
• Identify opportunities to mitigate impacts of declines in water availability in
northern Victoria at least cost.
The MDBP initially aimed to enhance non-
consumptive water flow – with a minimum flow of
650 GL in a year to arrive at the Coorong each year
and to ensure dissolved salt levels did not exceed a
certain threshold.
The Coorong in South Australia

3. What is numerical modelling?
• A model is any device or constructs that represent an approximation of a field
situation or real world situation
• A mathematical or numerical model is solving an equation or set of equations in ways
that represent a conceptualisation of real world dynamics
(Adapted from Society of Geophysicists)
• Numerical modelling is undertaken as a form of decision support

4. NVWPM -
What is the public interest and why is
this a knowledge challenge?
This concept provides a context for
why there is a public interest in
maximising the benefits of public
investments in agricultural R and D.
Effective water policy (and evidence
informed policy development) forms
just one part of this approach.
Attribution: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Photosynthesis.gif
From BioMass … to the BioEconomy
Attribution: https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/environment/topics/sustainable-development/the-bioeconomy/Pages/The-Bio-Economy.aspx
Attribution:

5. The hypothesis of this presentation
The Northern Victoria Water Policy Model
is an example of an emerging
“Public knowledge space”
The contention is that a “public knowledge space” is a new type of cross-
institutional framework that aims to use, enhance and protect the role of
public knowledge.
It is new because it now explicitly involves the integration of on-line data
management, web publishing activities and commitments to what might be
termed a “public interest”. Such interests are promoted based on publicly
funded interventions and monitoring for impact of these interventions.
A public knowledge space explicitly aims to create the
conditions for evidence informed decision making. It therefore
forms part of the ecology of what might be termed a science
informed decision support system.
The public knowledge
space of the
Meeting salinity and
groundwater
obligations project

6. The hypothesis of this presentation
Shades of different types of “public”
can depend on the both the funding and decision context
Paddock Erosion Landscape Vendor
Data gathering, collating, analysis and modelling for different types of decision contexts.
Some contexts allow for open data sharing, others do not.
Decision context
Partnership

7. What sort of knowledge-based
capabilities are we talking about?
Bio – economy and resilient agriculture
(Problem Solving Objectives)
Biomass
(Problem Solving Context)
Encoding scientific
knowledge within
numerical models like the
NVWPM involves new and
emerging capabilities in
socio technical systems
Spanning these different
types of knowledge
domains requires
commitments to socio-
technical systems

8. Evidence collated to underpin
the Northern Victoria Water
Policy Model
Irrigation trading zones data
Groundwater data
Surface water data Biophysical data
Land use data
Remote sensing data
Climate data
Northern
Victoria Water
Policy model
and sub-
models
Production cost data
Grains data
Dairy data
Horticultural dataMixed grazing data

9. Satellite-
image
processing
tool
User centric
decision support
at any level of
focus
Catchment
analysis tool
(biophysical
modelling)
Northern
Victoria
Ground water
software
application
Northern
Victoria Water
policy software
application
Socio-technical systems that underpin this
domain of numerical modelling and
landscape analytics
Involving 20 years of incremental knowledge creation and software development
Farm
property
scale
Catchment
management
scale
Regional
scale

10. Description and evidence the CAT
Transparency of numerical models and sub-
models underpin the effective functioning
of any type of knowledge space
Links to citations of evidence
Example of a knowledge space that has been mapped

11. Northern Victoria Water Policy
Model software application
Building a coherent model
Encoding
different
irrigation regions

12. Encoding Water Trading Zones
Irrigation regions modelled by mapping spatial overlaps between
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

13. Encoding Surface Water Regions
Sustainable Diversion Limit
Sustainable diversion limits (SDL) quantities of surface water and groundwater that can be taken for consumptive use.
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

14. Encoding Ground Water Regions
Sustainable Diversion Limits
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

15. Data sourced from
• Australian Land Use
Mapping version 6
• Victorian Land Use
Information system
• Land Victoria for boundaries
Encoding land use patterns
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

16. Data sourced from
• Sunrise 21 2014-15
Land – use Sunraysia
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

17. Land use – Goulburn Valley
Data sourced from
• SPC Goulburn Valley data
Northern Victoria Water Policy Model software application
Building a coherent model

18. Ground water modelling as an
example of the scale of the challenge
Modelling aquifer interactions
Building a coherent model

19. Raw data sourced from bores
Building a coherent model

20. Layer 12 – Palaeozoic basement
And then aquifer interactions are mapped via different layers

21. Layer 11 – Renmark Group (AQ 111)
Aquifer interactions

22. Layer 10 –Winnambool Formation / Geera Clay / Ettrick Marl (AQ 108 & AQ 110)
Aquifer interactions

23. Layer 9 – Murray Group / Duddo Limestone (AQ 107)
Aquifer interactions

24. Layer 8 – Bookpurnong Beds (AQ 106)
Aquifer interactions

25. Layer 7 – Calivil Formation / Lachlan Formation (AQ 105)
Aquifer interactions

26. Layer 6 – Parilla Sand / Loxton Sand (AQ 104)
Aquifer interactions

27. Layer 5 – Newer Volcanics (AQ 101)
Aquifer interactions

28. Layer 4 – Blanchetown Clay (AQ103)
Aquifer interactions

29. Layer 3 – Lower Shepparton Formation; thickness greater than 25m (AQ 102)
Aquifer interactions

30. Layer 2 – Upper Shepparton Formation; thickness up to 25m (AQ 102)
Aquifer interactions

31. Layer 1 – Coonambigal / Monoman / Quaternary Colluvium / Lowan (AQ 100)
Aquifer interactions

32. Leading to spatial presentation of depth
to water-table
Date of this
output is not
known.
This is provided as
an example only

33. In principle, what numerical outputs
does the NVWPM provide?
● Current farm gate profitability is estimated to be $2.2b across the modelled region;
● This can be increased to $3.6b with improved targeted spatial assignment of existing land use;
● This can be increased to $3.8b with improved targeted spatial assignment of existing land use and
access to 50% available groundwater;
● This can be increased to $4.4b with improved targeted spatial assignment of existing land use,
access to 50% available groundwater and 10% improvement in water efficiency via genetic
improvement, system design and precision water management.
In practice, the NVWPM has been designed as an optimisation model with an
ability to run a wide range of decision support scenarios options – as a means of informing farm policy
Source of evidence:
Beverly, C., Stott, K. and McInnes, J. Development of a bio-economic model to optimise irrigated agricultural productivity under varying water
availability in northern Victoria, Australia. In press. Paper based on public presentation at the 22nd International Congress on Modelling and
Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3 to 8 Dec.

34. Is there a need to recognise the
emergence of new capabilities?
… to the landscape
Biosciences Advanced
Scientific Computing
From genes
…to traits
Managing water is integral to everything

35. Being responsive to the pluralism of
governance requirements (and decision
contexts) is a critical capability
• This effects the nature of the technical
design and infrastructure.
• Further work is required to better think
through how best to deploy and improve
decision support models such as the
NVWPM.
• Failure to respond to this challenge could
well result in the corrosion of the value of
publicly funded research and
development

36. The multiplicity of layers that
make up a knowledge space
where modelling of public
research outputs are encoded
The challenge of developing,
deploying and improving an
optimisation model
like the NVWPM
This layer involves the encoding of the NVWPM
application into a user orientated product
service system that allows for the use of the
model in any number of decision contexts and
within a variety of different governance contexts.

37. Managing for open data and shades of
open data within the context of flexible
governance arrangements is another
Open data
(and shades of open data)
Some emerging capabilities related to numerical modelling;
• Sustainable repository management for input and output data sets;
• Data mesh-ups and reproducibility of results;
• Digital preservation (and archival description);
• Access management for licensed data;
• IP protocols for data sharing;
• Sustainable business models to support data infrastructure.
……………………..
• Transition to block chain infrastructure?

38. Describing the evolution of public
knowledge spaces in online
environments is another capability
Irrigation science might be advised to take a cue
from other sectors, for example, the Museum
Sector and what is being learned in terms of
bringing archival thinking to
inter-disciplinary collaborations
underpinning public science.
Noting that all science is not necessarily public science and that the use of
social and cultural informatics is relevant to any type of
knowledge space not just public knowledge spaces.

39. Together better than separate?
"The greatest crisis facing us is not Russia, not the Atom Bomb, not
corruption in government, not encroaching hunger, nor the morals of the
young. It is a crisis in the organization and accessibility of human knowledge.
We own an enormous 'encyclopaedia' - which isn't even arranged
alphabetically. Our 'file cards' are spilled on the floor, nor were they ever in
order. The answers we want may be buried somewhere in the heap, but it
might take a lifetime to locate two already known facts, place them side by
side and derive a third fact, the one we urgently need.“
Robert Heinlein (1950)
Thanks to Michael Jones for drawing my attention to this quote
A final thought