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Dafne project overview Lusaka

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DAFNE project Decision Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food Nexus in complex transboundary water resources of fast developing countries

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Dafne project overview Lusaka

  1. 1. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Funded under the H2020 Framework Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268 PROJECT OVERVIEW Paolo Burlando ETH Zurich paolo.burlando@ethz.ch
  2. 2. 2 DAFNE Partners Participant Country Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland Politecnico di Milano Italy Int. Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy Greece Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium The University Court of the University of Aberdeen United Kingdom Osnabrück University Germany International Water Management Institute IWMI Sri Lanka African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science Kenya TBA Ethiopia University of Zambia Zambia Universidade Eduardo Mondlane Mozambique Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH Germany ATEC-3D Ltd. United Kingdom European Institute for Participatory Media EV Germany
  3. 3. 3 Project objectives • DAFNE stands for Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water- energy-food NExus in complex and transboundary water resources systems of fast growing developing countries • DAFNE advocates an integrated water resources management approach, which explicitly addresses the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus. • It supports the promotion of a green economy in regions where infrastructure development and expanding agriculture have to be balanced with local social, economic, and environmental dimensions. • DAFNE will analyse and quantify the WEF nexus with respect to the trade-offs between conflicting objectives, such as hydropower production vs. irrigation and land exploitation vs. conservation. • The overall objective is to establish a decision-analytic framework (DAF) for Participatory and Integrated Planning (PIP).
  4. 4. 4 The Decision-Analytic Framework The DAF is intended to be a quantitative assessment tool to facilitate social understanding of the impact and support comparative analysis of alternative pathways. It will be developed through extensive, quantitative analysis of the anticipated effects of alternative planning options on the broad range of heterogeneous and often competing interests in transboundary river basins, also addressing feedback mechanisms between the WEF components It will be informed by, improved upon and validated through: a) active engagement of stakeholders throughout the process, and b) involvement of international and local academic expertise (water engineering, agricultural sciences, natural sciences, environmental economics, water governance and law)
  5. 5. 5 Project structure – The PIP procedure VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6 In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the) pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting) largely)agreed)upon)alternatives. DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5 Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the) integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning) actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological) scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.) The)DAF)provides: • Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered. • A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios. INDICATORS – WP2 • Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different) stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by) sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and) the)decision)makers.) • Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be) formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,) economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.) MODELS'– WP3/WP4 • Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and) validated • Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set) up)and)validated • The)model)of)the)different)components)are) combined))into)an)integrated)model ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2 • Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the) main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are) built. • Planning and)management actions,)including) infrastructural,)normative)and)operational) intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be) combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of) set)of)actions) Set$of$feasible$actions Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$ reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$ agricultural$production,…) Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators Candidate$pathways MONITORING'– WP2 • Historical)data)acquisition • Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale) Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys • Ground)truth)by)field)work • SocioGeconomic)surveys STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT FEEDBACK MONITORING ACTIONS and SCENARIOS INDICATORS MODELS DAF VNL
  6. 6. 6 DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5 INDICATORS – WP2 • Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different) stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by) sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and) the)decision)makers.) • Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be) formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,) economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.) MODELS'– WP3/WP4 • Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and) validated • Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set) up)and)validated • The)model)of)the)different)components)are) combined))into)an)integrated)model ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2 • Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the) main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are) built. • Planning and)management actions,)including) infrastructural,)normative)and)operational) intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be) combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of) set)of)actions) Set$of$feasible$actions Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$ reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$ agricultural$production,…) Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators MONITORING'– WP2 • Historical)data)acquisition • Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale) Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys • Ground)truth)by)field)work • SocioGeconomic)surveys STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT Project structure – The PIP procedure VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6 In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the) pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting) largely)agreed)upon)alternatives. DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5 Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the) integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning) actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological) scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.) The)DAF)provides: • Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered. • A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios. INDICATORS – WP2 • Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different) stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by) sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and) the)decision)makers.) • Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be) formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,) economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.) MODELS'– WP3/WP4 • Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and) validated • Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set) up)and)validated • The)model)of)the)different)components)are) combined))into)an)integrated)model ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2 • Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the) main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are) built. • Planning and)management actions,)including) infrastructural,)normative)and)operational) intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be) combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of) set)of)actions) Set$of$feasible$actions Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$ reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$ agricultural$production,…) Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators Candidate$pathways MONITORING'– WP2 • Historical)data)acquisition • Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale) Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys • Ground)truth)by)field)work • SocioGeconomic)surveys STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
  7. 7. 7 Project structure – The PIP procedure VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6 In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the) pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting) largely)agreed)upon)alternatives. DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5 Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the) integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning) actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological) scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.) The)DAF)provides: • Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered. • A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios. economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.) MODELS'– WP3/WP4 • Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and) validated • Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set) up)and)validated • The)model)of)the)different)components)are) combined))into)an)integrated)model combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of) set)of)actions) Set$of$feasible$actions Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$ reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$ agricultural$production,…) Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators Candidate$pathways STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6 In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the) pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting) largely)agreed)upon)alternatives. DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5 Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the) integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning) actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological) scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.) The)DAF)provides: • Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered. • A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios. INDICATORS – WP2 • Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different) stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by) sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and) the)decision)makers.) • Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be) formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,) economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.) MODELS'– WP3/WP4 • Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and) validated • Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set) up)and)validated • The)model)of)the)different)components)are) combined))into)an)integrated)model ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2 • Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the) main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are) built. • Planning and)management actions,)including) infrastructural,)normative)and)operational) intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be) combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of) set)of)actions) Set$of$feasible$actions Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$ reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$ agricultural$production,…) Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators Candidate$pathways MONITORING'– WP2 • Historical)data)acquisition • Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale) Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys • Ground)truth)by)field)work • SocioGeconomic)surveys STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
  8. 8. 8 Project Work Packages structure WP1 COORDINATION & MANAGEMENT WP3 WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS ANALYSIS & MODELLING WP4 MODELLING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC & INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS WP5 DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK WP6 SYNTHESIS & PATHWAY TO IMPACT Direct links Feedbacks Secondary feedbacks WP2 DRIVER of WATER- ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS WP7 DISSEMINATION, OUTREACH & KNOW-HOW TRANSFER
  9. 9. 9 Demand Dynamics of socio- economic framework Feedback Subtasks WP2 ENVIRONMENT DEMOGRAPHY ENERGY & HYDROPOWER ECONOMYWATER DEMAND WATER AVAILABILITY POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY D E M A N D S O C I O - E C O N O M I C F R A M E W O R K 1.1 / 2.1 1.1 / 2.1 1.8 / 2.6 1.7 / 2.5 1.3 / 2.3 1.2 / 2.2 1.5 / 2.7 1.8 / 2.6 1.6 / 2.4 WP2 components and links Drivers of WEF Nexus (co-variation of climate and socio economic drivers)
  10. 10. 10 WATER QUALITY ECOSYSTEMS & ECOSYSTEM SERVICES HYDROLOGY & WATER RESOURCES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HYDROPOWER INTEGRATED MODEL OF WATER-ENERGY- LAND NEXUS WP2 DRIVER of WATER- ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS WP5 DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK WP2 DRIVER of WATER- ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Direct links Feeds Task and subtasks WP3 3.1.2 3.1.5 3.1.4 3.1.3 3.1.1 3.2 WP3 model links • “2-core engine” • cause-effect relationships • nested scale modelling
  11. 11. 11 INDICATORS & VALUE FUNCTIONS ROBUST DECISION- ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK MODEL SCENARIO DISCOVERY ANALYSIS DESIGN OF ROBUST ADAPTATION PATHWAYS WP3 WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS ANALYSIS & MODELLING 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 Direct links Feedbacks Task WP5 WP5 task links VNL feedback
  12. 12. 12 Two transboundary pilot case studies ZAMBEZI • 2,700 km, 1.32 million km2 • longest east flowing river in Africa • 9 riparian states (Zambia, DR Congo, Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania). Four large hydropower dams since the 1970s (Kariba, Cahora Bassa, Itezhi- Tezhi and Kafue Gorges) WEF Issues: resource availability vs population density, expansion of irrigated agriculture, additional hydropower schemes, ecosystem conservation and expanding tourism.
  13. 13. 13 •760km,79,000km2 •2riparianstates(EthiopiaandKenya) •outflowintoLakeTurkana(endorheic) Current&potentialissues: •GibeIIIdamunderconstructionandlarge- scaleirrigationschemesforcommercialsugar caneproduction •excessivewaterwithdrawal •dropofLakeTurkanawaterlevel •resettlementsandFDI Twotransboundarypilotcasestudies OMO
  14. 14. 14 DAFNE Expected Outcomes Innovative aspects 1. Advances in environmental monitoring: remote sensing will be combined with UAV-based data collection to supplement the currently limited ground monitoring capacity at a low cost; 2. Comprehensive modelling and integrated WEF model 3. Water management and planning based on robust Decision Analytic Framework 4. Methods and tools to facilitate and promote stakeholder engagement and participation in decision making 5. Improved methods for practical interactions between science and policy leading to a strong applicability of the above innovations 6. Transfer of knowledge on methods, monitoring and modelling (Geo-portal)
  15. 15. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project

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