The document discusses risk management in oil and gas projects. It finds that traditional risk management often fails for such projects due to their unique challenges, including large scale, technology requirements, and sensitivity to market conditions. The highest rated risks for projects are found to be technological and scheduling, while for plant turnarounds the top risks relate to obtaining adequate resources. The document recommends establishing a common risk breakdown structure, holding cross-functional risk workshops, quantifying risks, using specialized risk management software, and clearly communicating high impact risks without mitigation plans.
The document discusses project risk management. It defines risk management as identifying, assigning, and responding to risk throughout a project's life to help meet objectives. It describes risks as potential problems that could impede success and notes risk management can improve success by selecting good projects and developing realistic estimates. It outlines the major processes of project risk management as risk identification, quantification, response development, and control.
The risk management for projects attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots which may occur when the project is implemented. It identifies as many risk events as possible. Further classification of risk factors help in resolving it either by mitigation, avoiding, transferring or retaining .Methods of handling risk.
This document discusses risk analysis and management for projects. It defines risk as a potential problem that may or may not occur, and outlines why identifying and planning for risks is important for project success. The document then covers various aspects of risk analysis and management, including risk strategies, categories, identification, assessment, refinement, and developing plans to mitigate, monitor, and manage risks. The overall aim is to help project teams understand risks and put processes in place to avoid or minimize risks that could negatively impact a project.
This document provides guidance on security risk management (SRM) for non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It details a SRM process that includes preparing a security risk assessment (SRA). The SRA process involves assessing the operational context, threats, and vulnerabilities, analyzing risks by evaluating impact and likelihood, and identifying mitigation measures to reduce risks. The overall SRM process aims to help NGOs safely achieve their missions by managing security risks through a standardized, systematic approach.
This document outlines the process of risk management for a graduation project on the topic. It defines risk and uncertainty, describes different types of risks like business and operational risks, and explains the principles and benefits of risk management. The key steps in implementing risk management are established as establishing context, risk identification, analysis, evaluation, treatment, and monitoring. Various risk analysis techniques are also presented, along with the application of the risk management process to a case study on developing a synthetic aperture radar system.
The document provides an overview of project risk management processes and techniques. It discusses qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods, such as probability/impact matrices and decision trees. Response strategies like risk avoidance, mitigation, and acceptance are also covered. The document aims to equip project managers with tools and best practices for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks throughout the project life cycle.
A risk is defined as “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive and negative effect on a project’s objectives.” Risk is inherent with any project, and project managers should assess risk continually and develop plan to address them. The risk management plan contains an analysis of likely risks with both high and low impact, as well as mitigation strategies to help the project avoid being derailed should common problems arise. Risk management plans should be periodically reviewed by the project team in order to avoid having the analysis become stale and not reflective of actual potential project risks. Most critical, risk management plans include a risk strategy.
This module on Managing Risk discusses different type of risk that needs to be taken into account by the management while implementing a project. The other topics converged in this module include probability-impact matrix, Risk Quantification; Mitigating/Transferring risk; Risk audits/Review; Sample Risk plan and how to initiate Risk Management Planning.
Risk Management is an important component of project management. it all start with the planning stage to the execution stage. There is no way a project can be implemented without strong foundations of risk management. The slides expounds the subject of risk management on sidelines of the project management like a rod and staff
The document discusses project risk management. It defines risk management as identifying, assigning, and responding to risk throughout a project's life to help meet objectives. It describes risks as potential problems that could impede success and notes risk management can improve success by selecting good projects and developing realistic estimates. It outlines the major processes of project risk management as risk identification, quantification, response development, and control.
The risk management for projects attempts to recognize and manage potential and unforeseen trouble spots which may occur when the project is implemented. It identifies as many risk events as possible. Further classification of risk factors help in resolving it either by mitigation, avoiding, transferring or retaining .Methods of handling risk.
This document discusses risk analysis and management for projects. It defines risk as a potential problem that may or may not occur, and outlines why identifying and planning for risks is important for project success. The document then covers various aspects of risk analysis and management, including risk strategies, categories, identification, assessment, refinement, and developing plans to mitigate, monitor, and manage risks. The overall aim is to help project teams understand risks and put processes in place to avoid or minimize risks that could negatively impact a project.
This document provides guidance on security risk management (SRM) for non-governmental organizations (NGOs). It details a SRM process that includes preparing a security risk assessment (SRA). The SRA process involves assessing the operational context, threats, and vulnerabilities, analyzing risks by evaluating impact and likelihood, and identifying mitigation measures to reduce risks. The overall SRM process aims to help NGOs safely achieve their missions by managing security risks through a standardized, systematic approach.
This document outlines the process of risk management for a graduation project on the topic. It defines risk and uncertainty, describes different types of risks like business and operational risks, and explains the principles and benefits of risk management. The key steps in implementing risk management are established as establishing context, risk identification, analysis, evaluation, treatment, and monitoring. Various risk analysis techniques are also presented, along with the application of the risk management process to a case study on developing a synthetic aperture radar system.
The document provides an overview of project risk management processes and techniques. It discusses qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods, such as probability/impact matrices and decision trees. Response strategies like risk avoidance, mitigation, and acceptance are also covered. The document aims to equip project managers with tools and best practices for identifying, assessing, and responding to risks throughout the project life cycle.
A risk is defined as “an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive and negative effect on a project’s objectives.” Risk is inherent with any project, and project managers should assess risk continually and develop plan to address them. The risk management plan contains an analysis of likely risks with both high and low impact, as well as mitigation strategies to help the project avoid being derailed should common problems arise. Risk management plans should be periodically reviewed by the project team in order to avoid having the analysis become stale and not reflective of actual potential project risks. Most critical, risk management plans include a risk strategy.
This module on Managing Risk discusses different type of risk that needs to be taken into account by the management while implementing a project. The other topics converged in this module include probability-impact matrix, Risk Quantification; Mitigating/Transferring risk; Risk audits/Review; Sample Risk plan and how to initiate Risk Management Planning.
Risk Management is an important component of project management. it all start with the planning stage to the execution stage. There is no way a project can be implemented without strong foundations of risk management. The slides expounds the subject of risk management on sidelines of the project management like a rod and staff
The document discusses project risk management processes and their importance. It defines project risk management as involving identification, analysis and response to project risks. The key project risk management processes are risk identification, risk quantification, risk response development, and risk response control. These help manage threats and opportunities throughout the project lifecycle. Effective risk management can significantly reduce project problems and failures.
Workshop project risk management (29 june 2012)bfriday
The document discusses project risk management tools used by Bronwyn Friday, the Group Manager of Risk at John Holland Group. It provides an overview of Bronwyn's background and experience in risk management. It then discusses tools and best practices for project risk management, including qualitative and quantitative risk assessment tools, risk registers, and risk identification methods like brainstorming workshops.
Risk project management - Notes for the CAMP examMaria Kirk
This document provides an overview of project risk management processes based on the PMBOK 6th edition. It discusses the seven processes in project risk management, including plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative analysis, perform quantitative analysis, plan risk responses, implement risk responses, and monitor risks. It also describes key inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs for each process. The document emphasizes quantitative risk analysis methods like simulation and decision trees for assessing overall project risk. It provides examples of how to calculate expected monetary value and adjust risk based on the dynamic project environment.
This document discusses project risk management. It defines risk management as identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks to minimize negative impacts and maximize opportunities. It outlines the risk management process, including identifying risks, assessing them based on probability and impact, developing risk responses, and monitoring risks. It provides examples of risk identification tools like the risk breakdown structure and risk profiles. The key aspects of risk management are proactively addressing risks to reduce surprises and negative consequences.
This document provides guidance on conducting risk analysis according to ICH Q9. It defines key terms like risk, hazard, and risk analysis. The document outlines a 4 step process for risk analysis: 1) risk assessment involving identification, analysis, and evaluation of risks, 2) risk control through mitigation and reduction, 3) risk communication, and 4) risk monitoring and review. It also discusses tools like FMEA, HACCP, and DOE that can be used and how to calculate the risk priority number. Finally, it discusses how to integrate risk analysis into various quality management activities.
The document discusses risk management frameworks and processes. It provides:
1) An overview of risk management, including highlighting risks at the project, program, and portfolio levels.
2) A risk management framework involving establishing context, risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment.
3) Details of risk governance, including risk management plans, risk registers, governance documents, and ongoing and discrete risk activities.
This document discusses risk management for projects. It defines project risk and different risk types. It outlines the risk management plan and process, including risk identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and developing responses. The risk register is used to document risks, analyses, and responses. Contingency plans and reserves help mitigate risks. Risk management involves processes to identify, analyze, and respond to project uncertainties.
The document discusses risk analysis and management for software projects. It defines risks as potential problems that could affect project completion. The goal of risk analysis is to help teams understand and manage uncertainty. Key aspects covered include identifying risks, assessing probability and impact, prioritizing risks, developing risk mitigation plans, and monitoring risks during the project. The document provides examples of risk categories, analysis steps, and strategies for proactive versus reactive risk management.
The Risk Management Plan outlines how risks will be managed for a project. It defines roles for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Risks will be documented in a risk log and the top risks will be prioritized. Key activities include risk identification, analysis, planning mitigation approaches, resolution, and monitoring. Risks will be reevaluated weekly and escalated if mitigation is not effective.
1) The document discusses organization level risk management. It addresses the importance of risk management for organizations' success, defining their risk attitude and thresholds, planning risks, establishing risk methodology, considering risk factors, implementing risk management, and learning from past lessons.
2) It emphasizes establishing a clear understanding of strategic risks and opportunities faced by the organization. A suitable risk methodology should guide risk management activities to achieve strategic goals.
3) Recording and applying lessons learned is important for organizational maturity. Both risks and opportunities from the past, whether achieved or missed, provide learning.
The document discusses project risk management processes including planning risk management, identifying risks, performing qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, planning risk responses, and controlling risks. It provides details on the inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs of each process. The objective is to conduct risk management activities to increase the probability and impact of positive events and decrease the probability and impact of negative events on a project.
The document provides instructions for completing a project risk register. The risk register tracks key information about identified project risks such as the risk number, date identified, risk description, category, potential impact, risk owner, probability of occurrence, impact of risk, risk level, response, status, date response invoked, and whether a contingency plan was developed. The document also provides examples of project risks in different phases to help identify risks and memory joggers to aid in the risk identification process.
This document outlines the agenda for a presentation on risk-informed decision making (RIDM). The presentation will cover:
1. The inherent riskiness of current uncertain times and the need to evolve risk management approaches to remain relevant.
2. An explanation of what RIDM is and why it is important now, given that continuous risk management (CRM) is already practiced.
3. Examples of when and why to use RIDM in addition to discussing the actual steps involved in conducting RIDM.
The presentation aims to demonstrate how RIDM can help risk management practices evolve to address a more dynamic environment with changing mission objectives and resources. RIDM is presented as a complement to
The role of Risk Assessment and Risk Management is to continuously Identify, Analyze, Plan, Track, Control, and Communicate the risks associated with a project.
The Webster’s definition of risk is the possibility of suffering a loss. Risk in itself is not bad. Risk is essential to progress and failure is often a key part of learning. Managing risk is a key part of success.
This document describes the foundations for conducting a risk assessment of a large-scale system development project. Such a project will likely include the procurement of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products as well as their integration with legacy systems.
Investors in Risk Management provides expert-driven risk maturity assessment services to assess and improve the risk management maturity using our Risk Management Maturity Model (RMMM) to mitigate the impact of uncertainty on business objectives.
1. This document presents a Risk Management Standard published jointly by three major risk management organizations in the UK. It provides terminology, processes, organizational structures, and objectives for effective risk management.
2. The standard recognizes that risk management involves both upside opportunities and downside threats. It should be integrated into an organization's culture and strategy to help achieve objectives. The core components of the risk management process include risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment.
3. External and internal factors can both drive key risks for an organization. Examples of risk categories include strategic, operational, financial, compliance and knowledge-based risks. Carrying out risk assessment and prioritizing risks is important for informed decision-making.
Project risk management involves identifying, analyzing, and responding to risks that could impact a project's objectives. The key processes include risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control. Project risks can come from various sources like financial, market, operational, political, and contractual factors. An effective risk management plan outlines the methodology, roles, budget, risk categories, and documentation process. Mitigation strategies like avoidance, transference, and contingency planning help reduce risks and keep projects on track.
The Known Unknown - Importance of Project Risk Management by Mr Wissam YaacoubPMILebanonChapter
Mr. Wissam Yaccoub delivered a talk to PMI Lebanon Chapter about The Known Unknown - Importance of Project Risk Management in March 2019.
Among the Talking Points & Agenda:
Risk tolerance and uncertainty
Risk assessment game
Risk culture in life and organizations
Project risk management processes
How to plan, identify, and analyze risk
Uplifted risk register template
Group risk exercise
If a project manager is consumed with managing risk, there is little time to manage opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure, it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
This document discusses risk analysis and management for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects. It defines risk and project risk, and describes the importance of risk management. It outlines various risks involved in EPC projects related to owners, contractors, government, climatic conditions, social factors, and shareholders. It then discusses techniques for risk analysis including using historical data, expert judgement, Delphi estimates, decomposition, activity sequencing, procurement planning, and project management. The key is to identify, assess, and control risks in order to prevent or decrease gaps between estimated and actual project costs, timelines, and quality.
Risk Management Methodologies in Construction IndustriesIRJET Journal
This document discusses risk management methodologies in the construction industry. It begins with an abstract noting that modern construction projects are complex, increasing unpredictability, and that risk management is not always consistently implemented. The document then provides an overview of the key steps in risk management processes: risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment strategies. It explains the identification process involves creating checklists of potential risks, determining consequences, mapping risks, and categorizing risks. The analysis process is described as collecting data, quantifying uncertainties, and evaluating potential impacts. The document stresses the importance of risk management for construction companies and projects.
The document discusses project risk management processes and their importance. It defines project risk management as involving identification, analysis and response to project risks. The key project risk management processes are risk identification, risk quantification, risk response development, and risk response control. These help manage threats and opportunities throughout the project lifecycle. Effective risk management can significantly reduce project problems and failures.
Workshop project risk management (29 june 2012)bfriday
The document discusses project risk management tools used by Bronwyn Friday, the Group Manager of Risk at John Holland Group. It provides an overview of Bronwyn's background and experience in risk management. It then discusses tools and best practices for project risk management, including qualitative and quantitative risk assessment tools, risk registers, and risk identification methods like brainstorming workshops.
Risk project management - Notes for the CAMP examMaria Kirk
This document provides an overview of project risk management processes based on the PMBOK 6th edition. It discusses the seven processes in project risk management, including plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative analysis, perform quantitative analysis, plan risk responses, implement risk responses, and monitor risks. It also describes key inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs for each process. The document emphasizes quantitative risk analysis methods like simulation and decision trees for assessing overall project risk. It provides examples of how to calculate expected monetary value and adjust risk based on the dynamic project environment.
This document discusses project risk management. It defines risk management as identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks to minimize negative impacts and maximize opportunities. It outlines the risk management process, including identifying risks, assessing them based on probability and impact, developing risk responses, and monitoring risks. It provides examples of risk identification tools like the risk breakdown structure and risk profiles. The key aspects of risk management are proactively addressing risks to reduce surprises and negative consequences.
This document provides guidance on conducting risk analysis according to ICH Q9. It defines key terms like risk, hazard, and risk analysis. The document outlines a 4 step process for risk analysis: 1) risk assessment involving identification, analysis, and evaluation of risks, 2) risk control through mitigation and reduction, 3) risk communication, and 4) risk monitoring and review. It also discusses tools like FMEA, HACCP, and DOE that can be used and how to calculate the risk priority number. Finally, it discusses how to integrate risk analysis into various quality management activities.
The document discusses risk management frameworks and processes. It provides:
1) An overview of risk management, including highlighting risks at the project, program, and portfolio levels.
2) A risk management framework involving establishing context, risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment.
3) Details of risk governance, including risk management plans, risk registers, governance documents, and ongoing and discrete risk activities.
This document discusses risk management for projects. It defines project risk and different risk types. It outlines the risk management plan and process, including risk identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and developing responses. The risk register is used to document risks, analyses, and responses. Contingency plans and reserves help mitigate risks. Risk management involves processes to identify, analyze, and respond to project uncertainties.
The document discusses risk analysis and management for software projects. It defines risks as potential problems that could affect project completion. The goal of risk analysis is to help teams understand and manage uncertainty. Key aspects covered include identifying risks, assessing probability and impact, prioritizing risks, developing risk mitigation plans, and monitoring risks during the project. The document provides examples of risk categories, analysis steps, and strategies for proactive versus reactive risk management.
The Risk Management Plan outlines how risks will be managed for a project. It defines roles for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks. Risks will be documented in a risk log and the top risks will be prioritized. Key activities include risk identification, analysis, planning mitigation approaches, resolution, and monitoring. Risks will be reevaluated weekly and escalated if mitigation is not effective.
1) The document discusses organization level risk management. It addresses the importance of risk management for organizations' success, defining their risk attitude and thresholds, planning risks, establishing risk methodology, considering risk factors, implementing risk management, and learning from past lessons.
2) It emphasizes establishing a clear understanding of strategic risks and opportunities faced by the organization. A suitable risk methodology should guide risk management activities to achieve strategic goals.
3) Recording and applying lessons learned is important for organizational maturity. Both risks and opportunities from the past, whether achieved or missed, provide learning.
The document discusses project risk management processes including planning risk management, identifying risks, performing qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, planning risk responses, and controlling risks. It provides details on the inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs of each process. The objective is to conduct risk management activities to increase the probability and impact of positive events and decrease the probability and impact of negative events on a project.
The document provides instructions for completing a project risk register. The risk register tracks key information about identified project risks such as the risk number, date identified, risk description, category, potential impact, risk owner, probability of occurrence, impact of risk, risk level, response, status, date response invoked, and whether a contingency plan was developed. The document also provides examples of project risks in different phases to help identify risks and memory joggers to aid in the risk identification process.
This document outlines the agenda for a presentation on risk-informed decision making (RIDM). The presentation will cover:
1. The inherent riskiness of current uncertain times and the need to evolve risk management approaches to remain relevant.
2. An explanation of what RIDM is and why it is important now, given that continuous risk management (CRM) is already practiced.
3. Examples of when and why to use RIDM in addition to discussing the actual steps involved in conducting RIDM.
The presentation aims to demonstrate how RIDM can help risk management practices evolve to address a more dynamic environment with changing mission objectives and resources. RIDM is presented as a complement to
The role of Risk Assessment and Risk Management is to continuously Identify, Analyze, Plan, Track, Control, and Communicate the risks associated with a project.
The Webster’s definition of risk is the possibility of suffering a loss. Risk in itself is not bad. Risk is essential to progress and failure is often a key part of learning. Managing risk is a key part of success.
This document describes the foundations for conducting a risk assessment of a large-scale system development project. Such a project will likely include the procurement of Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) products as well as their integration with legacy systems.
Investors in Risk Management provides expert-driven risk maturity assessment services to assess and improve the risk management maturity using our Risk Management Maturity Model (RMMM) to mitigate the impact of uncertainty on business objectives.
1. This document presents a Risk Management Standard published jointly by three major risk management organizations in the UK. It provides terminology, processes, organizational structures, and objectives for effective risk management.
2. The standard recognizes that risk management involves both upside opportunities and downside threats. It should be integrated into an organization's culture and strategy to help achieve objectives. The core components of the risk management process include risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment.
3. External and internal factors can both drive key risks for an organization. Examples of risk categories include strategic, operational, financial, compliance and knowledge-based risks. Carrying out risk assessment and prioritizing risks is important for informed decision-making.
Project risk management involves identifying, analyzing, and responding to risks that could impact a project's objectives. The key processes include risk management planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control. Project risks can come from various sources like financial, market, operational, political, and contractual factors. An effective risk management plan outlines the methodology, roles, budget, risk categories, and documentation process. Mitigation strategies like avoidance, transference, and contingency planning help reduce risks and keep projects on track.
The Known Unknown - Importance of Project Risk Management by Mr Wissam YaacoubPMILebanonChapter
Mr. Wissam Yaccoub delivered a talk to PMI Lebanon Chapter about The Known Unknown - Importance of Project Risk Management in March 2019.
Among the Talking Points & Agenda:
Risk tolerance and uncertainty
Risk assessment game
Risk culture in life and organizations
Project risk management processes
How to plan, identify, and analyze risk
Uplifted risk register template
Group risk exercise
If a project manager is consumed with managing risk, there is little time to manage opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure, it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
This document discusses risk analysis and management for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects. It defines risk and project risk, and describes the importance of risk management. It outlines various risks involved in EPC projects related to owners, contractors, government, climatic conditions, social factors, and shareholders. It then discusses techniques for risk analysis including using historical data, expert judgement, Delphi estimates, decomposition, activity sequencing, procurement planning, and project management. The key is to identify, assess, and control risks in order to prevent or decrease gaps between estimated and actual project costs, timelines, and quality.
Risk Management Methodologies in Construction IndustriesIRJET Journal
This document discusses risk management methodologies in the construction industry. It begins with an abstract noting that modern construction projects are complex, increasing unpredictability, and that risk management is not always consistently implemented. The document then provides an overview of the key steps in risk management processes: risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment strategies. It explains the identification process involves creating checklists of potential risks, determining consequences, mapping risks, and categorizing risks. The analysis process is described as collecting data, quantifying uncertainties, and evaluating potential impacts. The document stresses the importance of risk management for construction companies and projects.
This document discusses project risk management. It defines risk management and outlines the key processes: planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and monitoring. It describes performing qualitative risk analysis to assess the likelihood and impact of identified risks. This involves using tools like probability and impact matrices to prioritize risks. The output is an updated risk register containing the qualitative analysis results.
With uncertainty comes opportunity. But if a project manager is consumed with managing the risks, there is little time to manage the opportunities. Good risk management is not about fear of failure; it is about removing barriers to success. This is when opportunity management emerges.
Software Project Risk Management Practice in OmanEECJOURNAL
Oman is a member of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It is located in Southwest Asia and it has strategic significant boundaries, Overlooking the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf. It is the 80th in Global Innovation Index in 2019 and 63 in E-Government Development Index in 2018. Oman is an effective member of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Furthermore, Oman's government has continued efforts to develop local and foreign investments by signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the USA. Oman plays a significant role in investments due to its strategic location connected to the markets in the Gulf, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Oman's vision is to involve all new technologies to be always beside the developed countries. To achieve that, Oman established The Government Innovation Initiative to encourage government entities in creativity and introduce their suggestions to enhance governmental performance and enhance the efficiency in different fields. This is realized by involving modern technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Cloud Computing, Virtual Reality Applications, and Blockchain. In Oman, the risk management approach is a core technique. Three major stages are applied systematically in risk management in software projects. These stages involve a) identifying the risk; b) analyzing and assessing the risk, and c) reaction to the risk. There is no doubt that the high risk belonged to business will have negative impacts on all of its participants. Wherefore, this paper sheds the light on that knowledge area. The aim of this paper is to review the present literature on risk management processes implemented in software projects. There is a dearth in the literature which covers the risk management area knowledge in Oman's organizations. This paper target finding out the commonly used frameworks or mechanisms in risk management in software projects. It also tries to collect the responses to state the various types of risk origins in the existing profit and non-profit organizations in Oman and to recognize the coming research trends in this area.
Engr. Insaf Ali has worked as a project engineer on several projects. Risk management is defined as systematically identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risks to maximize positive events and minimize negative events. There are two views on how to define risk - as either encompassing both opportunities and threats, or defining risk exclusively as a threat while seeing opportunities as distinct. Effective risk management involves identifying risks, assessing their probability and impact, developing responses, implementing those responses, and providing feedback.
Risk Management Appraisal - A tool for successful Infrastructure projectIRJET Journal
This document discusses risk management for infrastructure projects. It identifies eight categories of risk for infrastructure projects: management risks, technical and construction risks, contractual and legal risks, resource and site-related risks, economic and finance risks, environmental risks, social and political risks, and safety and health risks. The key steps of risk management discussed are risk identification, risk analysis including likelihood and impact assessment, and risk mitigation techniques. Quantitative and qualitative methods are used for risk analysis. Managing risks is seen as essential for successfully achieving project goals of time, cost, quality and objectives.
Assessment of Risk in Construction Projects by Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierar...IRJET Journal
This document presents a risk assessment methodology for construction projects using a modified fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (MFAHP). It begins by discussing risks in construction projects and various risk assessment techniques. It then introduces the classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and explains its limitations, particularly its inability to account for fuzziness in human judgment. The document proposes using a modified fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (MFAHP) to overcome these limitations. It then identifies key risk factors for construction projects by analyzing risk registers from various commercial projects. These risk factors are categorized into groups like design/approvals, communication, base building, materials, resources, safety, execution, and external factors. The objective is to assess these risk factors using MFAHP to provide
This document discusses risk management for projects. It defines risk as uncertain events that can positively or negatively impact project objectives. Risk management aims to recognize and manage potential issues. The key steps in the risk management process are: 1) identifying risks, 2) assessing risks through analyzing probability and impact, 3) developing responses like mitigating, avoiding, transferring or accepting risks, and 4) developing contingency plans. Contingency funds are also established to cover known and unknown risks. The overall goal is to reduce surprises and minimize negative consequences to improve chances of meeting project objectives.
The document provides instructions for conducting a Security Risk Assessment (SRA), which is part of the Security Risk Management (SRM) process. The SRA involves assessing the operational context, threats, and vulnerabilities to identify security risks. It then evaluates the risks by analyzing impact and likelihood to determine risk levels. Finally, it identifies mitigation measures to reduce risks. The SRA is a living document that should be regularly reviewed and updated when circumstances change. Key steps in the SRA process involve clearly defining the timeframes and locations being assessed, conducting a program assessment, threat assessment, and vulnerability assessment, analyzing risks, and selecting mitigation measures for implementation. The overall goal is to systematically evaluate security risks and implement solutions to enhance safety
Project procurement management involves three key processes:
1) Planning procurements by documenting decisions, specifying the approach, and identifying sellers.
2) Conducting procurements through obtaining seller responses, selecting a seller, and awarding contracts.
3) Monitoring procurements to manage relationships, oversee contract performance, implement changes, and close out contracts.
MBA 6941, Managing Project Teams 1 Course Learning Ou.docxaryan532920
This document provides an overview of project risk management for a course on managing project teams. It defines project risk and describes how risks can positively or negatively impact project objectives. It then outlines the key processes in project risk management: plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, plan risk responses, and control risks. The document explains these processes and their associated outputs. Finally, it discusses risk factors, risk attitudes, risk tolerance, and provides a suggested reading on how project risk management is helping organizations succeed.
This document discusses a risk management plan, including defining risk, classifying risks, and outlining the key processes: plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative risk analysis, and plan risk responses. It describes setting risk categories and maintaining a risk register to document risks. Analyzing probability and impact is discussed as a way to prioritize risks. Finally, it outlines different risk treatment approaches like avoiding, transferring, mitigating, and accepting risks.
This document is a briefing from the World Economic Forum and Gulf Research Center on global risks in the Middle East region. It provides an introduction on the global risk outlook for the Middle East and executive summaries on four specific global risks: a global asset price collapse, a Chinese economic hard landing, retrenchment from globalization, and geopolitical and geostrategic instability. The document also includes a foreword on the work of the World Economic Forum's Global Risk Network in assessing emerging global risks and their interconnected nature.
The word contingency has been given a completelynew meanin.docxarnoldmeredith47041
T
he word contingency has been given a completely
new meaning since it was introduced to heavy oil and
gas energy construction industry. Perhaps it is one of
the most confusing concepts in project cost and
schedule management systems. More often than not, the
contingencies are simply hidden in the base estimate, causing
chaotic results [7]. Now, with the historical cost data becoming
illusory, the efforts of benchmarking will be misleading and
meaningless. Lack of structured transparency has led to the
misconception that the contingency fund is a phenomenon of
wide utility as a catch-all to cover project extra costs which
otherwise can not be legitimately accounted for.
J.P. Morgan has been quoted as saying that “the market will
fluctuate” [2]. This claim also applies to project cost forecasts.
Contingency forecasts fluctuate as well, following the project
progress and overall project risk shifts. One of the most effective
ways to avoid the catch-all syndrome is to break down contingency
into risk affected components. The level of detail shall be driven
by a well established work breakdown structure (WBS), which
shall be inherently built into a contingency risk model. When the
contingency amount is derived, it will be automatically dispersed
into appropriate accounts based on the risk levels and cost weigh-
ing factors.
Allocating contingency instead of a single liner provides a
great advantage to the management of the contingency. By using
moderate cost breakdown details, the cost engineer knows exactly
how the contingency model is put together and the amount each
account deserves, and the timing when the amount is exhausted.
Hence, the cost engineer can easily generate a contingency draw-
down plan, and manage the depletion of contingency in a
controlled manner.
PROJECT COST OVERRUN PHENOMENON
Fifteen years after the economic recession of the 1990s—a
result of a world-wide oil price drop, the Oil Sands in northern
Alberta of Canada became a hot spot, attracting numerous
investors from the United States and other parts of the world.
Scarcity of oil and its current high price were the catalysts for a
booming oil and gas construction industry in the province of
Alberta. Between 2005 and 2013, a total amount of 63.5 Billion
Canadian dollars [6] will be invested in the exploration, mining,
crude refining and transportation of bituminous oil sands.
However, the heavy construction in the energy industry has been
plagued with a history of poor performance, budget overrun and
significant schedule delays, according to the Construction
Owner's Association of Alberta (COAA).
Various attempts have been made by the COAA and other
interest groups to improve the reputation of the industry with
little success to date. Perhaps there is no easy way to save the
industry's notoriety for cost overruns. However, one method to
avoid further cost slippage—the implementation of a stringent
risk management process, including adequate cost and schedule
conting.
As per PMBOK - "The whole point of undertaking a project is to achieve or establish something new, to venture, to take chances, to risk. Risk may have positive effects or negative effects on the project “Schedule” and/or “Cost”. Positive risks are Opportunities and negative risks are losses or threats; remember both risks are uncertain “percentage of occurrence less than 80%”. Risk Management purpose is to manage (Plan and implement) these uncertainties.
This document discusses various types of risks in project management. It identifies different categories of risk like stakeholder risk, regulatory risk, external risk, execution risk, scope risk, scheduling risk, resource risk, and technology risk. It also describes risk management and techniques to incorporate risk factors in projects, including using a risk adjusted discount rate, certainty equivalent coefficient, sensitivity analysis, probability assignment, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and decision tree analysis.
The document discusses project risk management from the perspective of a development institution. It provides definitions of risk, project, and project management. Project risk management involves planning, organizing, securing, and managing resources to control the effects of uncertainties on a project's objectives. The document outlines the roots of uncertainty in a project, types of risks, and the risk management process. It emphasizes that risk management should be integrated into an organization's culture and involve identifying, assessing, and prioritizing risks.
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Why Traditional Risk Management fails in the Oil+Gas Sector
1. 2007 AACE International Transactions
RISK.01
Why Traditional Risk Management Fails in the
Oil and Gas Sector:
Empirical Front-Line Evidence and Effective Solutions
Brett Schroeder and Jan A. Jackson
roject risk management has considerably matured DEFINING RISK MANAGEMENT
P over the last decade, a trend that has been prominent-
ly accelerated by highly publicized stories of corpo-
rate misconduct, globalization, new contractual risk
shifting vehicles, and last but not least, recently enacted regula-
tory requirements such as the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Rather
The Essence of Risk
The nature of risk is uncertainty. Desired outcomes are inher-
ently under threat of failure or non-compliance because of
events that may occur during the project-, program-, or asset
than considering risk as simply one focus area among others, all life-cycles. Such events may vary in their degree of probabilistic
elements of project management, such as cost, time, or human occurrence, magnitude of impact (severity), and manageability.
resources are increasingly being analyzed from a risk perspec- Kerzner defines risk itself as “[a] measure of the probability and
tive. Energy projects, especially in the upstream sector are faced consequence of not achieving a defined project goal” [2].
with magnitudes, combinations, and sometimes even types of Consequently, risk management uses such variables as probabil-
risks commonly not experienced, at least not to the same ity and severity (impact) to typify risk and risk events for further
degree, in more traditional project concepts. Given such action (risk response) or other considerations. Nonetheless, the
unique challenges, common risk categories and traditional specific shortcomings of the traditional approach are rooted in
approaches to risk mitigation are insufficient for the oil and gas its ‘linear’ and sequential process thinking in regard to risk man-
sector. Any risk model or tool must be able to address specific agement. But even more sophisticated risk systems don’t seem
categories, based on certain risk areas. Despite major advances to deliver the desired results and frequently fail in their applica-
in risk planning and mitigation tools, new capital projects and tion for large and complex upstream projects. On its most basic
plant turnarounds (shutdowns) in the oil and gas sector contin- level risk may be described by various functional elements, uti-
ue to experience a high rate of failure. Based on initial data lizing the variables or terms just introduced:
reviews, interviews, and case studies, the specific causes for fail-
ure on these projects can be traced to the failure to effectively • Risk = ƒ (probability, impact) = exposure
manage risks that were identified during the planning phases. • Risk = ƒ (hazard, safeguard), or alternatively, ƒ(exposure,
Functionalizing risks provides a conceptual basis for sound manageability) [1].
evaluation of potential adverse impacts on the project.
Naturally, this type of assessment or consideration falls within A risk is therefore defined as any uncertainty that if it occurs
the risk evaluation element of an overall risk management would affect one or more project objectives. But inherent to any
process. Once all identified risks have been evaluated in terms economic endeavor, there are two kinds of risk:
of exposure and manageability, high-priority risks (typically
defined as rating ‘high’ on the exposure scale and/or ‘low’ on Threat: Any uncertainty that if it occurs would affect one or
manageability) may then be isolated for specific and detailed more objectives negatively.
review by respective stakeholders. Subsequently, output from Opportunity: Any uncertainty that if it occurs would affect one
the risk evaluation component of the risk management process or more objectives positively.
can be quantified as expected monetary values (EMV) or visu-
alized in Pareto-style graphics to display the most prevalent risksTeams often view all risks as negative events and the potential
for positive impacts are often under-estimated or not adequate-
rank-ordered. Specific areas for effectively utilizing quantified
risk values are some of the following: ly considered in the risk management process. This process is
the methodology of identifying, listing, assessing, prioritizing,
• determining contingency amounts; registering, and controlling risks, throughout the project life
• assessing deductible amounts for project-specific policies; cycle, by eliminating or reducing the probability of occurrence
and, and the potential impact caused by the threat [1].
• overall project NPV calculation.
RISK.01.1
2. 2007 AACE International Transactions
Figure 1 shows the life cycle of a risk. Once a risk is identified between all knowledge areas. More specifically, risk considera-
and included in a risk register it should undergo the following tions are to be applied in all disciplines comprehensively rather
process: than topically. Knowledge areas under discussion are:
• Assess the probability of the risk occurring and the potential • integration management;
impact on project or turnaround. • scope management;
• Determine whether the risk is “active” and therefore • time management;
requires further work. • cost management;
• Develop action plans for active risks to reduce the probabil- • quality management;
ity of occurrence or reduce its potential impact if the risk • human resources management;
were to occur. • communications management;
• Gain acceptance from other team members on the action • risk management; and
plans. And, • procurement management.
• Implement action plans and monitor the risk.
THE NATURE OF RISK FOR
Common approaches follow a sequential chain of activities to OIL AND GAS PROJECTS
address the identification of risks, their evaluation and
approach, and subsequently the continuous control mecha- The oil and gas industry is the world’s most capital-intensive
nisms to stay abreast of potentially adverse events. The PMBOK? industry and invests hundreds of billions annually in new proj-
Guide has devoted a full chapter to Project Risk Management ects and maintenance of existing facilities. The industry has
[3]. Conceptually, the PMI has integrated Risk Management as been using risk management techniques for several decades
one of nine project management knowledge areas into its project now but there has not been any systematic measure on how
management framework. Risk management is introduced as fol- effective these techniques have been in improving project or
lows: plant turnaround performance. Based on our work with several
large petroleum operators, we estimate that the rate of major
“Chapter 11, Project risk management, describes the process- project failure measured in terms of significant cost overruns
es concerned with conducting risk management on a project. (>20 percent), major schedule delay (>20 percent), or poor
It consists of the risk management planning, risk identifica- plant operability after startup is over 30 percent. The need to
tion, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk find and develop new fields is pushing the upstream sector to
response planning, and risk monitoring and control project the extremes in terms of both environment and technology. For
management processes.” the major western petroleum companies, there are few opportu-
nities to extract oil and gas with minimal risk any longer. This is
compounded by an industry-wide skilled-labour shortage.
This shortage of skilled labor appears to be having a particu-
larly adverse impact on turnarounds (shutdowns) in the refinery
sector. Plant turnarounds are the periodic and planned shut-
down of facilities to perform maintenance and/or install new
equipment. Figure 2 shows the performance of 36 recent high-
complexity refinery turnarounds. The average schedule delay is
more than 35 percent and the average cost overrun is 25 per-
cent. Perhaps more importantly, there is a large degree of vari-
ability in the performance as indicated by the bars which meas-
Figure 1— Risk Management Process
Two schools of thought exist regarding the definition of proj-
ect risk management as a separate knowledge area or discipline
within the project management framework. For one, it is
argued, that by elevating risk management to a distinct field
within the project management concept, it may gain in promi-
nence, acceptance, and deeper penetration among all project
stakeholders. Inversely, by defining project risk management as
a distinct area of focus, project participants may lose sight of
complex process interactions that necessarily need to take place Figure 2—Turnaround Performance Data
RISK.01.2
3. 2007 AACE International Transactions
ure plus one and minus one standard deviation. This means that ciency, several basic and overarching categories have been
turnarounds are highly unpredictable. introduced to capture all risks in a comparable manner.
The oil and gas industry is unique and is particularly complex
because of the following: Capital Projects
This analysis is based on nine major oil and gas projects. The
• management of numerous internal and external interfaces; combined number of risks identified within the reviewed risk
• magnitude and scale; registers amounted to 111 after eliminating entries that are too
• regional constraints; high-level, unspecific, or may not qualify within the framework
• technology stretch; and of this study. Subsequently, nine basic categories, such as mar-
• sensitivity to market conditions. ket/commercial, technology, and organizational have been cre-
ated to sort all qualified risks. Pursuant to the sorting, all cate-
As these trends gather momentum, risks to project and turn- gories have been counted to determine the rank order, or prior-
around execution will only increase. The use and implementa- ity, of each category within the project’s risk framework.
tion of risk management systems varies widely across the oil and Technology clearly topped the list, followed by planning/sched-
gas industry. Techniques range from simple spreadsheet-based ule and then organizational. Project teams are consistently
systems to more sophisticated enterprise-wide software systems. focused on ensuring that technical definition and design issues
For the most part, project teams are identifying and tracking are well-defined prior to the execution stage and tend to view
risks. However, effective quantification and implementation of these issues as the ones with both the highest probability of
response plans is lacking. occurrence and the highest impact. The primary concern of
these teams is to ensure that there is sufficient time to in the
Highest Rated Risks in the Oil and Gas Sector project definition phases to minimize the chances of late design
changes during detailed design or construction.
Based on a database of risk registers we have identified what
type of risks both project and turnaround teams are consistently Turnarounds
rating as the most severe prior to the execution stage. In total, This analysis is based on 15 large-scale refinery turnarounds.
more than 25 risk registers of differing magnitude and granular- The combined number of risks form these registers total over
ity have been evaluated and sorted to reveal the dominant 300. The highest-rated risk categories deal with obtaining ade-
sources of perceived project risks in these sectors. For the most quate resources in a timely manner. The top rated category is
part, these teams used similar methodologies and tools to cate- technical support, followed closely by contracting and labor.
gorize projects within a common risk breakdown structure Both categories are a reflection of the challenges being faced by
(RBS) as well as an applicable work breakdown structure large-scale refinery turnarounds in attracting enough skilled
(WBS). Individual project teams tend to slightly differ on their labor. In addition, turnaround teams are having increasing diffi-
interpretation of risk categories and to which element within culty obtaining adequate internal technical support from other
the RBS the risk should be allocated. To overcome such defi- disciplines during the shutdown to deal with day-to-day prob-
Table 1— Project Risk Rating (Rated in Order of Severity)
RISK.01.3
4. 2007 AACE International Transactions
Table 2—Turnaround Risk Rating (Rated in Order of Risk Severity)
lems and troubleshoot issues, particularly during the critical developing response plans. This turnaround also included
startup period. a large portion of capital work. The risks of effectively inte-
grating the capital work were identified early by senior team
members, but these risks were never adequately understood
OIL AND GAS CASE STUDIES or addressed by site management.
In the last year there have been striking examples of the some- Both the Sakhalin II project and the refinery turnaround had
times catastrophic risks faced in the industry: implemented risk management processes and systems. Still,
they experienced a series of unexpected events that caught their
• Sakhalin II is a new offshore platform under construction management teams by surprise, resulting in major failures. Our
on Russia’s Pacific coast and is the largest integrated oil and experience in working with and reviewing hundreds of capital
gas project in the world, with total resources of some 4 bil- projects and turnarounds indicates that there are systematic
lion barrels oil equivalent. Last year it was announced that flaws in how most teams are implementing risk management
the forecasted project costs would more than double from processes in practice. The net effect is that the risk management
$10 billion to $22 billion due to high raw material costs and within these teams is lacking rigor and is not central to the daily
contractor overruns. Additional factors that have been cited management of the project. Typically, managing the risk regis-
as sources of the large overrun include unrealistically low ter is delegated to a junior staff person without the authority or
contingency in the cost estimates, lack of hedging for for- relationships to ensure that risks are being effectively evaluated
eign currency losses, and the difficulty of operating in such and managed. This paper will suggest a series of steps that, we
a remote location. The project has also been characterized believe, will help improve the effectiveness and hopefully help
by disputes with the Russian government over potential reduce the rate of major failures in the oil and gas sector.
environmental violations. In December 2006, Shell, the
operator and leading shareholder in the development, sold EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
most of their stake in the project to Gazprom after pressure TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
from the government.
Establish a Common Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
• A client of ours recently executed a refinery-wide turn-
around estimated at more than 500,000 worker-hours with Table 3 provides risk breakdown structures (RBS) for both
a planned duration of 40 days. The duration more than capital projects and turnarounds in the oil and gas sector. These
doubled to 81 days and the costs increased by 30 percent. categories provide a logical way to group risks. The consistent
Moreover, the turnaround was characterized by a below structure can also help teams analyze risks across a portfolio and
average safety performance and had a safety recordable rate facilitate the sharing of risks across different functional areas.
of 0.93. The turnaround had developed a risk register but Reviewing previous RBSs allows teams to learn from experience
never effectively followed up by assigning risk owners and and better understand the systematic threats that need to be
RISK.01.4
5. 2007 AACE International Transactions
Table 3—Risk Breakdown Structure
addressed during the risk identification stage. Moreover, teams ues since this will erode the quality of the risk rating and will
should be able to identify what action plans were implemented preclude further analysis and quantification of project risks.
and assess their level of effectiveness. Importantly, the quantification of risks enables team members
to perform some cost-benefit analysis. That is, to answer the
HOLD CROSS-FUNCTIONAL question on what response plans, if effective, will have potential-
RISK IDENTIFICATION EVENTS ly the largest benefits on mitigating threats to project value?
Risk identification and assessment workshops have proven to Avoid Over-Reliance on Simple Spreadsheet and Adopt
be one of the single most important steps within the risk man- Systems That Allow for Detailed Real Time Tracking and
agement process for the oil and gas sector. In planning for such Visualization
workshops specific attention is given to the attendee list, which
should reflect the broad spectrum of all project or turnaround Most project and turnaround teams in the oil and gas sector
stakeholders. These workshops provide a unique opportunity for have adopted spreadsheets to maintain risk registers. There is
team members to not only identify potentially adverse issues nothing inherently wrong with the use of spreadsheets, but their
arising from their area of responsibility, but also allow these use tends to concentrate the risk management process to a sin-
team members to develop and crystallize essential interdepen- gle individual and preclude the cross-functional dialogue that
dencies among various threats. Insomuch, risk workshops will should be a key part of the risk process. The use of specialized
add to the connectivity of the individual disciplines and reveal risk management software systems should make this process eas-
possible misalignment among team members on certain risk ier since the risk register can be accessed and reviewed by vari-
expectations. It is recommended that several team workshops ous team members.
are held prior to the execution phase. These team workshops
may have at times various foci other than risk, depending on Develop Response Plans and Clearly Communicate High
area or discipline under discussion (e.g., planning status, team Impact – Low Probability Risks That do not Have Mitigation
alignment, etc.), but should at a minimum feature a review or Plans
discussion of the current status of risk assessments and risk-relat-
ed action plans. Many teams do a good job at identifying and quantifying risks
It has proven helpful to conduct post-execution assessments of and capturing them in a risk register. However, in our experi-
ence many teams fail to complete the risk management cycle by
specific risk actions taken in preparation for and during the proj-
ect. The results of such feedback measures ensure effective ‘les- developing the appropriate response plans. Developing
sons learned’ application for future use. The cause–and-effect response plans for each risk may appear overwhelming for large
intelligence gathered in such a format will prove invaluable in registers. If this is the case, the team needs to prioritize on the
planning for the next major project. high-impact and high-probability risks and ensure that at a min-
imum these are addressed with a response plan. The team also
QUANTIFY IMPACT VALUES AND PROBABILITIES needs to communicate the low probability risks that have high
impact on project objectives that do not have mitigation meas-
Team members should express probabilities and impacts as a ures in place. These are the threats that often result in cata-
single number (eg. $10 MM, 5 months, etc.), or as a distribution strophic failure.
(eg. min=$5, likely= $10 MM, max=$20 MM). Using quantita-
tive numbers to express impact creates better alignment and
consistency in how risks are rated among team members. Teams
need to avoid qualitative assessments that are not linked to val-
RISK.01.5
6. 2007 AACE International Transactions
• Review the Risk Register as Part of Regular Team
Meetings
Make the review of the risk register a regular part of the week-
ly or monthly team meetings. This ensures that the risk process
remains central to the management and communication
processes.
• Minimize Risks Through Improved Project Definition
The fundamental cause of most failure is poor planning and
front-end loading. Risks can be minimized through excellent
definition. This should be the aim of every project and turn-
around team.
• Re-evaluate Risks Periodically
Teams need to hold periodic cross-functional risk events to
update the register with new threats and opportunities and re-
assess existing risks.
The above actions will not resolve all the issues with effective
implementation of risk management, but they do provide a
checklist of actions for teams that hopefully will instill more
rigor and value in the risk management process.
REFERENCES
1. Hillson, “Measuring Changes in Risk Exposure,” The
Measured, Vol. 4, Issue 3, Fall 2004
2. Kerzner, Project Management, A Systems Approach to
Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, 8th ed., 2003,
Chapter 17.1
3. A Guide To The Project Management Body of
Knowledge, (PMBOK? Guide), 3rd ed., 2004, Chapter 11
– Project Risk Management
Brett R. Schroeder
Asset Performance Networks, LLC
3 Bethesda Metro Center, 925
Bethesda, MD 20814, US
Phone: +1.240.683.1001
Jan A. Jackson
Asset Performance Networks, LLC
3 Bethesda Metro Center, 925
Bethesda, MD 20814, US
Phone: +1.240.683.1001
RISK.01.6