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A low energy demand pathway for Ireland
This document summarizes a proposed low energy demand pathway for Ireland to meet climate goals. It finds that reducing energy consumption through lifestyle changes, efficiency improvements, and economic restructuring could decrease Ireland's energy needs without compromising quality of life. Specifically, the pathway models decreasing transport demand through shorter travel, public transit, and active mobility. It also models retrofitting existing housing, building new ultra-efficient homes, cutting industrial energy intensity, and limiting commercial and public space. Preliminary results suggest this low energy demand scenario could lower emissions and costs compared to a business-as-usual pathway, reducing the need for negative emissions technologies to meet climate targets. The transformation requires targeted policy support but could have co-benefits like improved health,
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A low energy demand pathway for Ireland
- 1. A low energydemand pathway for Ireland Ankita Singh Gaur, Hannah Daly Energy Policy and Modelling Group, University College Cork Summer 2021 semi-annual ETSAP meeting
- 2. Introduction • Energy usecaused about 59% of the 𝐺𝐻𝐺 emissions in Ireland (SEAI, 2020) • Economic growth and energy use are strongly coupled (GNI*- Modified Gross National Income) 0 50 100 150 200 250 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 € billion ktoe Year Historical energy consumption and GNI* - Ireland Energy Consumption GNI* Source: Central Statistics Office, Ireland
- 3. Economic growth Energy use Size ofenergy system Decarbonization efforts Meeting climate goals Introduction • If current correlation between energy use and economic growth continues, meeting climate goals will become increasingly difficult • Hence exploring alternate energy demand growth patterns is important
- 4. • Mitigation pathwaysdescribe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits • Current mitigation scenarios are biased towards growth and technology fixes • IPCC’s 2018 report highlights: • Annual Carbon dioxide emissions to reach net zero by 2050 • Use of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) • Risks of using CDR include: • adverse impacts on the ecosystem • feasibility in terms of cost • land use, availability and competition for food production • social acceptance and safety • Mitigation scenarios focus on supply side • Demand side measures not well-represented in energy system models due to their complex nature Introduction
- 5. Rationale for LowEnergy Demand Pathway • Most mitigation pathways depend on novel fuels and technologies • Dependency can be reduced with lower energy service demands • Deployment of CDR and Biofuels can be limited • Biodiversity loss, soil degradation and adverse impacts on ecosystem can be reduced • Efficiency improvements can have an economy-wide rebound effect • Buffer can be available to absorb some efficiency rebound effect if demand is reduced • Demand side determines the size of the entire energy system • Reducing energy demand services implies down sizing of entire energy system, making it easier to decarbonise supply side
- 6. Rationale for LowEnergy Demand Pathway • Ireland has significantly increased its climate mitigation ambition • Reduce greenhouse-gases by an average of 7% per year till 2030 • “Net-zero" target for 2050 • Ireland faces a number of challenges in meeting these objectives • Very high share of GHG emissions from agricultural sector • Transport and heating are heavily dependent on fossil fuels • Relatively electricity grid make it very challenging to integrate high shares of renewable electricity
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- 8. Low-Energy demand scenariofor Ireland • Revolves around the idea of reducing energy consumption through • changes in behaviour and lifestyle • increasing end-use efficiency • denser urban development • economic restructuring • changing social infrastructure • Proposes a reduction in energy demand without any compromise in the quality of life or end-user satisfaction • Does not include any novel fuels or technologies that may have adverse impacts Lifestyle changes to enable LED transition Walking and cycling Smaller and efficient houses Changing diet Reduce, reuse, recycle Work from home Public transport
- 9. Low-Energy demand scenariofor Ireland Transport • Freight- Activity level to go back to the 1995 level by 2050 • Better logistics and efficiency improvements, • Reviving local economy • Taxes on foreign imports • Passenger kilometres- pkms/capita decrease to 12000 by 2050 • Shorter travel distances and higher occupancy in vehicles • Work from home • Modal shift- more public transport, increase in active modes of travel (walking & cycling) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Freight:Tonne-kms/capita Historical Base projection LED Mode (% share) 2018 2050_LED Private cars 73% 52% Motorcycles 0% 0% Small PSVs 2% 2% Large PSVs 14% 23% LUAS 0% 2% Train 3% 5% Walking 6% 12% Cycling 1% 4%
- 10. Low-Energy demand scenariofor Ireland Residential • Area per person by 2050- 42.5 sq. metres • About 70% of the Irish population lives in under occupied dwellings • Old housing stock- at least B2 rated (100 kWh/m2) • Retrofits and renovations • New housing- at least A2 rated (50 kWh/m2) Residential demand (% share) 2018 2050_LED Space Heating 73% 56% Water Heating 24% 30% Lighting 2% 5% Pumps & Fans 1% 8% Space cooling 0% 1% Industry • 45% decrease in energy intensity by 2050 from current level • Increasing production efficiency • Better usage of materials: e.g., recycling, circular economy • 50% reduction in energy demand from cement industry by 2050 • Replaced by other building materials such as timber 0 50 100 150 2018 2019 2020 2030 2050 PJ Industry Base LED
- 11. Low-Energy demand scenariofor Ireland Services • Space constraint: Commercial buildings-5.3 m2/capita; Public buildings-10.7 m2/capita • Public lighting units are assumed to remain constant at 2040 level
- 12. Results Marginal Emissions Price •Final energy demand determines the size of the entire energy system • Marginal emissions price is lower in the LED scenario- cheaper to decarbonize smaller system • Investments in energy system are lower in LED scenario Annualised System Cost
- 13. Results • CO2 emissionsare lower in the LED scenario in 2050 • Reliance on negative emission technologies (in this case BECSS) is also lower in the LED scenario
- 14. Conclusion • LED pathwayexplores the possibility of reducing emissions without relying on technological transformation but by reducing end-use demand for energy • Lower demand provides opportunities to decarbonize the supply end more effectively • The transformation to a lower energy demand cannot be achieved only through expected rational consumer behaviour and needs specific policies for its implementation • Investments will be needed in order to enable the transition to LED e.g. public infrastructure
- 15. Easier to meet climate goals Reduced air pollution Decent standard of living forall Healthier lifestyle Better indoor air quality Biodiversity loss minimised Co-benefits of LED Scenario
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