Producing and integrated report of the Teechnical progress consistent with the Programmatic progress, the detection of variances, and suggested corrective actions is the basis of the project's success

1. Executing the Credible Plan,
Using an Integrated Reporting
and Control System
Part 2
EVM World 2016
Glen B. Alleman
Agile Program Planning and Controls
Prime PM
glen.alleman@niwotridge.com
+1 303 241 9633
Thomas Coonce
Cost Analysis and Research Division
Institute for Defense Analyses
tcoonce@ida.org
+1 703 575 6634
Rick Price
Project Management & Planning
Operations Principal
Lockheed Martin Space Systems
Company
rick.a.price@lmco.com
+1 303 971 1826

2. 2
Learning Objectives
• TLO #1 – the student will learn how to produce an integrated
report of the Technical progress consistent with the
Programmatic progress, detect variances, and suggest
corrective actions.
• TLO #2 – the student will understand how to objectively
measure progress and use the performance to manage the
program.
• Earned Value Management is part of a Technical and
Programmatic control system
– Integrated risk, performance, effectiveness, technical and
other measures provide leading indicators of program
performance.

3. 3
In Part 1, we talked about …
• The five core processes needed to produce a credible
Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB).
• How to use objective measures of progress and how to inform
program performance with these measures.
In Part 2, you’ll see how to execute the program with this
information.

4. 4
Part 1 ‒ Inputs and Outputs for Building the Credible
Performance Measurement Baseline
• Customer Capabilities
• Time phased budget
• Desired completion date
• Available technologies
• Time phased resources
• Reference Class Data
• Programmatic and technical risks with
probabilities and impacts
• Historic uncertainties
• Measures of Effectiveness
• Measures of Performance
• Work Breakdown Structure
• Integrated Master Plan
• Technical Performance Management
Plan
• Initial Integrated Master Schedule
• Time Phased Staffing Plan
• Schedule Reserve (Margin)
• Management Reserve
• Risk Register and Mitigation Plans
• Adjusted Integrated Master Schedule
• Risk Burn Down Plan
Inputs Outputs

5. 5
Part 2 ‒ Executing the Credible Performance
Measurement Baseline

6. 6
A Readable Version
The Four processes needed to execute the credible PMB
❶ Compare Technical and Programmatic Actuals to Plan
❷ Compare BCWP and Cost and Schedule Performance
Data with Management Reserve (MR) and Schedule
Margin (SM) balances
❸ Revise Integrated Master Schedule (IMS) and Risk
Register
❹ Run or Rerun Monte Carlo Simulations

7. 7
❶ COMPARE PLANNED TO
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
Compare technical and programmatic performance to the planned
performance. Identify variances needed to make decisions about
corrective actions to Keep the Program Green.

8. 8
Compare Planned to Actual Performance
• Physical Percent Complete
– Planned
– Actual
• Do this at the Work Package level
– Quantifiable Backup Data
– Avoid averaging out the variances at the Control Account
level
Objectively assess accomplishments at the Work Performance Level
EIA-748-C, page 1

9. 9
Wright Brothers’ Technical, Cost and
Schedule Progress
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
770
780
790
800
810
820
830
840
850
860
870
15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08
CPI/SPI
Pounds
WBs' 1908 Flyer Integrated Progress
(2/28/1908)
Upper Limit Planned Target Achieved SPI CPI
Compare side-by-side the Technical Performance (Weight) with
the Programmatic performance CPI and SPI

10. 10
❷ COMPARE MR AND SM
BALANCES
Using the performance data and the variances, the computed
BCWP from measures of Physical Percent Complete.
Assess planned Management Reserve and Schedule Margin with
the current MR and SM and inform EAC and ETC from past
performance.

11. 11
Compare BCWP with MR and SM
• With actual BCWP assess impact on Estimate at Completion
and Estimate To Complete.
• Assess planned Management Reserve against actual
Management Reserve
• Assess planned Schedule Margin against actual Schedule
Margin
• Assess planned risk burn down against actual Risk Burn Down

12. 12
Wright Brothers’ MR Planned Use vs Actuals
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual MR Use
(15 May 1908)
MR Planned Balance MR Actual Balance

13. 13
Schedule Margin in Final WB’s Flyer IMS

14. 14
Wright Brothers’ Schedule Margin Burn
Planned Use vs Actuals
In May, when the schedule margin went below plan, immediate
corrective action is needed to get back on Schedule Margin Plan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
15-Feb-08 15-Mar-08 15-Apr-08 15-May-08 15-Jun-08 15-Jul-08 15-Aug-08 15-Sep-08
Days
WB 1908 Flyer Planned vs Actual Schedule Margin Use
(15 May 1908)
Schedule Margin Plan Balance Schedule Margin Actual Balance
This dip is
characterized as
negative slack

15. 15
❸ REVISE IMS AND RISK
REGISTER
With this data, update the Integrated Master Schedule and Risk
levels in the Risk Register for future periods of performance.

16. 16
Revise IMS and Risk Register
• Every reporting period update the Risk Register with actual
assessment of
– Reduced risks
– Actual margin needed for unmitigated and irreducible risks
• Adjust Risk Register contents for current assessments
– New risks
– Retired risks
– Changes in risk attributes
• Update ETC, EAC, and ECD with the statused IMS and Risk
Register

17. 17
❹ RUN AND RERUN THE
SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS
MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS
Schedule Risk Analysis (per DI-MGMT-81861A) at periodic
intervals to ensure acceptable confidence levels for the Estimate to
Complete (ETC), Estimate at Completion, and the Estimated
Completion Date (ECD).

18. 18
Run and Rerun Schedule Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulations
• With updated Risk Register – rerun the Schedule Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulations
• Reassess confidence levels of EAC, ETC, and ECD
• Determine sensitivity indices (which elements are most likely to
cause the forward plan to go awry)
• If needed
– Replan IMS, e.g., change logic, and/or possibly with add
more schedule margin
– Add resources
– Adjust technical solution

19. 19
Summary
• Cost and Schedule performance informed by Technical
Performance
– At IBR Technical Performance plan defines the work activities
in the IMS
• Build a risk adjusted PMB
– Reducible and irreducible risks in the risk register, traceable to
the IMS.
• Budget active mitigation activities
• Protect unmitigated risks with Management Reserve and
Schedule Margin
• Confirm programmatic data validity with Technical Performance
Data
• Perform these activities continually during execution to Keep the
Program Green

20. 20
Questions???
20