The document discusses new approaches to understanding hidden supply chain risks, emphasizing the importance of recognizing external shocks and their financial and reputational consequences. It outlines strategies for mitigating risk, including mapping critical suppliers and developing proactive risk assessment processes, while highlighting that 42% of disruptions occur below tier one suppliers. The final call to action encourages participants to implement new ideas for improving supply chain resilience within their organizations.

1. Seeing the wood from the trees
New approaches to understanding hidden supply chain risks
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
This material is confidential and proprietary to D&B and/or third parties and may not be
reproduced, published or disclosed to others without the express authorization of D&B.
Workshop Leaders
Lee Glendon, Supply Chain Risk Specialist,
Dun & Bradstreet
Nick Wildgoose FCIPS, Global Supply Chain
Product Leader, Zurich Insurance

2. 2
What’s the key thing that you
want to get out of this
session?
The interactive bit….

3. Financial HealthPre Qualification
Supplier
Performance
Key Suppliers
Seeing the wood from the trees: Spotting hidden
risks in the wider operating environment and upstream of
tier one suppliers
“The Trees”
“The Wood”

4. 4
The issue: External shocks bring heavy financial and
reputational consequences

5. Supply Chain Disruptions are Costly
Source : Company public statements
7%-30 % Reduction
in Share Price

6. Supply Chain Risk – Why should we care?
 Our responsibility – Disruption
impact
 Professional practice CIPS
Effectiveness, Sustainability and
Risk
 Competitive advantage
6

7. How to protect your supply chain
 Secure Executive sponsorship and support through ‘value at risk’
approach
 Map out critical tier 1 suppliers and ensure Business Continuity
programmes meet your continuity and recovery requirements (at
your end and their end)
 Link to sustainability and look at lower tiers for critical supply
chains (single points of failure)
 Build a proactive and strategic capability for risk assessment,
mitigation and assurance
7

8. Proactive and strategic: develop the bigger, deeper
picture with repeatable, scalable processes

9. Top Macro Risks to Assess and Mitigate
- According to Supply and Risk Management professionals*
Other criteria: Labour market quality, Labour market wages, infrastructure, credit availability, inflation, ease of starting/closing a
business, custom and border controls, restrictions on capital movement, labour market size, GDP growth/decline. *Source D&B
online interviews conducted Jan-Feb 2014.

10. Use Case #1: Identify, analyse and evaluate “macro”
risks (planning and preparedness)
Practical applications of macro-
level analysis for On-boarding
and In-Life (SRM)
• Easily identify and monitor
tier one extended supply
chain risks
• Stress-test Business
Continuity Plans against
scenarios
• Negotiate force majeure
clauses
• Prioritise supplier assurance
programmes
• Source new suppliers in new
countries with confidence

11. 11
Use Case #2: Timely impact analysis and situational
awareness…
<<Risk Event>>
Step 1: Alert
Step 2: Supply base impact analysis
Step 3: Situational picture drill
down

12. 12
Use Case #3: Supply Chain Development
Where’s the future growth in demand?
“Cash-rich Asian companies
are investing in Eastern
Europe and Africa”.
“Novartis Pharma win CIPS
Supply Management
Award – best cross-
functional teamwork”
“Rolls-Royce opens second
Derby in Singapore”

13. Use Case #4: Looking beyond Tier 1 for hidden risks
- 42% of disruption originates below tier one (BCI/Zurich 2013)

14. A great opportunity to add value
 It’s an issue! Supply chain disruption
causes significant reputational and
financial damage.
 It’s a great opportunity for
procurement professionals to help the
business through your unique insights
into the supply environment
 And it’s getting easier to get started
and build a strategic and proactive
capability to identify and manage risks
and opportunities in global sourcing…
14

15. Final call to action….
15
Please write down ONE idea that
you will take-away from the session
and try to implement at your
organisation.
Thank you.

16. Seeing the wood from the trees
New approaches to understanding hidden supply chain risks
CONFIDENTIAL & PROPRIETARY
This material is confidential and proprietary to D&B and/or third parties and may not be reproduced, published or disclosed to others without the express authorization of D&B.
Lee Glendon
Supply Chain Risk Specialist
Country Insight Solutions
T: +44 (0)1628 492507
M: +44 (0)7834 933710
E: glendonl@dnb.com
www.dnbcountryrisk.com
Nick Wildgoose
Global Supply Chain Product Leader
Zurich Global Corporate
T: +44 (0) 207 648 3066
M: +44 (0) 7875 886068
E: nick.wildgoose@uk.zurich.com
www.supplychainriskinsights.com