Prepared by Clemens Breisinger1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2, Ahmed Kamaly3, Mouchera Karara3 1. International Food Policy Research Institute 2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy

1. Clemens Breisinger1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2, Ahmed Kamaly3, Mouchera
Karara3
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy
3. Ministry of Planning and Economic Development of the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt
Last updated: 24 September 2020
Contact: Clemens Breisinger (c.breisinger@cgiar.org) or Mariam Raouf (m.raouf@cgiar.org)
COVID-19 in Egypt
Impacts on Production, Household Income &
Food Systems
Financial support from
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which made this study possible under
the project “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI. The information provided in this paper is not official U.S.
government information and does not represent the views or positions of the United States Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.
Any opinions stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI and the Ministry of Planning and
Economic Development.

2. Impact of COVID-19 in Q4 (April-June)
• By implementing a relatively modest and partial
lockdown, Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter has
declined by 1.1 percent compared to the same
quarter in 2018/19.
• For the whole fiscal year 2019/2020 MOED and
IFPRI jointly estimated annul growth of 3.8
percent.
• The services sector is hit hardest, followed by
industry. Agriculture is the most resilient sector,
especially parts of the livestock sector have
posted positive growth.
• Higher-income households face the largest
income losses. Lower-income households also
see their incomes decline significantly and find it
harder to cope.
• The government has taken bold actions to
support these vulnerable groups, by allocating a
monthly allowance for seasonal workers who lost
their jobs and by increasing the number of
beneficiaries under the Takaful and Karama
program.
• Continuing to fully open and support the
economy will be critical for avoiding permanent
job losses and increases in poverty.
• The recovery process may also provide
opportunities for fostering more private sector-
driven and sustainable economic transformation.
Source: https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p15738coll2/id/133764/

3. Egypt has phased out most restrictions in June
Source: IFPRI Egypt COVID-19 Food Policy Monitor

4. Three scenarios for Egypt’s recovery from July to Dec.
Fast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
Global
Shocks
Q4
2019-2020
Partial Lockdown period
Remittances
and export
demand
decline
Without
Government
Intervention
Q1
2020-
2021
Production loss from
lockdown period reduced by
95%-98%, for most of the
sectors
Hotels loss are reduced by
only 50%
Production losses from
lockdown period reduced
by 90-95%
Production losses from
lockdown period reduced by
80-85%
Remittances
didn’t
decline,
contrary to
previous
expectations
. Hence, we
didn’t
implement
any negative
shock to
remittances
Hotels losses are reduced
by only 50%
Hotels losses are reduced by
only 50%
Q2
2020- 2021
Production losses reduced by
99%
Hotels losses are reduced by
only 50%
Production losses reduced
by 99- 95%
Production losses reduced by
90-95%
Hotels losses are reduced
by only 50%
Hotels losses are reduced by
only 50%
With
Government
Intervention
Q1
2020- 2021
Keeping the same recovery assumptions for each sector as in Scenario 1, and assuming an increase in
public investments of about 281 billion EGP (around 17.7 billion $), as targeted in the Investment
plan of FY 2020/21. This second Scenario assumes that most of these Investments are directed to
boost the construction sector, housing and infrastructure projects, especially roads and bridges under
the national road network and the completion of the third and fourth phases of the Cairo metro.
Q2
2020- 2021
*A detailed description about the size of the shocks for disaggregated sectors will be shown in the annex

5. Recovery scenarios, with and without
government intervention (GDP)
Change in quarterly GDP with fast or slow
recovery (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
Change in quarterly GDP with fast or
slow recovery (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government Intervention (Investment plan)
0.8
2.7
-0.2
1.8
-1.2
1.1
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q1 Q2
Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
-1.2
0.5
-2.2
-0.3
-3.1
-0.9
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1 Q2
Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
Without Government Intervention

6. Fast recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government
Intervention
(Investment plan)
0.8
3.3
0.7
1.3
-1.4
0.8
1.1
2.5
6.4
0.1
18.9
-0.6
0.1
0.7
-21.4
-0.3
-2.2
15.4
1.0
4.9
2.1
2.8
0.3
2.6
2.4
4.3
9.6
0.8
20.4
1.9
1.5
3.6
-9.1
1.2
1.0
13.0
Q2 Q1
0.6
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
-1.8
-0.9
-0.5
-0.9
-1.1
-0.5
-0.5
-1.8
-1.2
-1.0
-22.2
-1.2
-3.0
15.2
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.2
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.2
2.0
-10.6
0.2
0.1
12.8
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Textile
Wood and paper
Chemicals
Machinery
Other Manufacturing
Utility
Construction
Services
Trade
Tansportation
Hotelry
Fin Services
Other Services
ICT
Q2 Q1
Without Government
Intervention

7. Gradual recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government
Intervention
(Investment plan
0.5
2.4
0.0
0.4
-4.3
-0.9
0.8
1.3
4.9
-0.3
17.3
-1.9
-1.3
-2.7
-24.8
-1.2
-5.2
15.9
0.8
4.0
1.4
2.0
-2.0
1.1
1.8
3.2
8.3
0.5
19.3
0.8
0.2
0.9
-12.9
0.1
-0.1
16.8
Q2 Q1
0.4
-1.8
-1.7
-1.8
-4.7
-2.5
-0.7
-2.1
-2.5
-1.0
-2.1
-3.1
-2.5
-4.5
-25.6
-2.1
-6.0
15.7
0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-2.5
-0.8
0.1
-0.7
-0.9
-0.2
-0.5
-0.4
-1.0
-0.6
-14.3
-0.8
-0.9
16.5
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Textile
Wood and paper
Chemicals
Machinery
Other Manufacturing
Utility
Construction
Services
Trade
Tansportation
Hotelry
Fin Services
Other Services
ICT
Q2 Q1
Without Government
Intervention

8. Slow recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Sector GDP (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government
Intervention
(Investment plan
0.3
1.6
-0.7
-0.5
-7.6
-2.7
0.6
-0.2
3.6
-0.8
16.6
-3.1
-2.3
-4.2
-34.4
-2.1
-8.1
16.9
0.8
3.6
1.0
1.5
-3.7
-0.1
1.7
2.4
7.3
0.3
18.7
-0.1
-0.5
-0.3
-16.3
-0.6
-2.1
15.4
Q2 Q1
Without Government
Intervention
0.1
-2.3
-2.3
-2.6
-7.9
-4.3
-0.9
-3.4
-3.5
-1.5
-1.7
-4.3
-3.4
-5.9
-35.2
-3.0
-8.9
16.7
0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.9
-4.2
-1.9
0.1
-1.4
-1.7
-0.4
-0.7
-1.3
-1.7
-1.7
-17.7
-1.6
-2.9
15.2
Agriculture
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Textile
Wood and paper
Chemicals
Machinery
Other Manufacturing
Utility
Construction
Services
Trade
Tansportation
Hotelry
Fin Services
Other Services
ICT
Q2 Q1

9. Recovery scenarios, with and without
government intervention (employment)
Change in employment with fast or slow
recovery (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
Change in employment with fast or slow
recovery (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
-1.7
0.3
-3.1
-0.5
-4.0
-1.3
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1 Q2
Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
2.6
4.9
1.2
3.8
0.0
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Q1 Q2
Faster Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
With Government Intervention (Investment plan)
Without Government Intervention

10. Fast recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government Intervention
(Investment plan
Without Government
Intervention
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6
2.7 2.6 2.7
2.5
2.8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Q1 Q2
-1.4
-1.2
-1.4
-1.2
-1.5
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
Q1 Q2

11. Gradual recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government Intervention
(Investment plan)
Without Government
Intervention
-0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
-0.5
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Q1 Q2
-2.4
-2.2
-2.5
-2.1
-2.6
-0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
-0.4
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
Q1 Q2

12. Slow recovery scenario, with and without government
intervention (Sectoral Impact)
Change in quarterly Household income (in percent change)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
With Government Intervention
(Investment plan)
Without Government
Intervention
-1.4 -1.3
-1.5
-1.3
-1.6
1.080 1.094 1.076 1.083 1.077
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Q1 Q2
-3.4 -3.2 -3.4
-3
-3.6
-1 -0.9 -1 -0.8
-1.1
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
Q1 Q2

13. Annex : Size of the Shocks by Sector
Recovery Scenarios
SAM sectors Initial Shock Fast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
Agriculture
Wheat and barley 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00%
Livestock 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cattle 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00%
Poultry 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00%
Other livestock 10.00% 0.23% 0.00% 0.35% 0.00% 0.58% 0.00%
Agro-processing
Meat processing 10.00% 0.50% 0.10% 1.50% 1.00% 2.50% 1.00%
Dairy 5.00% 0.25% 0.05% 0.75% 0.50% 1.25% 0.50%
Manufacturing
Textiles -30.00% -1.50% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00%
Clothing -30.00% -1.50% -0.30% -4.50% -3.00% -7.50% -5.00%
Leather and footwear -30.00% -1.50% -0.30% -4.50% -3.00% -7.50% -5.00%
Wood products -10.00% -0.50% -0.10% -1.50% -1.00% -2.50% -1.50%
Paper products and publishing -20.00% -1.00% 0.00% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00%
Petroleum products
Fertilizers and herbicides 10.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.50% 0.00% 2.50% 0.00%
Other chemicals 30.00% 5.00% 5.00% 10.00% 5.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Non-metal minerals -20.00% -1.00% -0.20% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00%
Metals and metal products -20.00% -1.00% -0.20% -3.00% -2.00% -5.00% -3.00%
Machinery and other equipment -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00%
Electrical equipment -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00%
Vehicles and transport equipment -50.00% -5.00% -1.00% -10.00% -7.00% -20.00% -10.00%
Other manufacturing -20.00% -2.00% 0.00% -5.00% -3.00% -10.00% -5.00%

14. Annex : Size of the Shocks by Sector
SAM sectors Initial ShockFast Recovery Gradual Recovery Slow Recovery
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
Utilities
Electricity, gas and steam -10.00% -0.50% 0.00% -1.00% -0.50% -1.50% -0.50%
Water supply and sewage
Construction -5.00% -1.00% 0.00% -2.50% -1.00% -1.00% -0.5
Trade -15.00% -1.00% 0.00% -2.50% -1.50% -3.00% -2.25%
Transportation -30.00% -5.00% 0.00% -10.00% -5.00% -12.00% -6.00%
Hotelry -90.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -45.00% -27.00%
Restaurants -20.00% -10.00% -5.00% -15.00% -10.00% -20.00% -10.00%
ICT 50.00% 18.00% 15.00% 7.50% 5.00% 20.00% 18.00%
Finance and insurance -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50%
Real estate activities -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50%
Business services -10.00% -1.00% -1.50% -1.00% -2.00% -1.50%
Public administration -10.00% -1.00% -0.50% -1.50% -0.50% -2.00% -1.00%
Education
Health and social work 35.00% 10.00% 10.00% 15.00% 15.00% 20.00% 15.00%
Other services -20.00% -4.00% -1.00% -7.00% -2.00% -10.00% -4.00%