Post covid ecnomic condition ways to recover from covid-19 pandemic recession

Title of Assignment: Covid Pandemic and Its Economic Impact With
Respect to Developing and Developed Nation
Prepared By:
Roksana Rahim Rumki
Roll: 1610
BGE 10
Jahangirnagar University
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Covid-19 Impact on Global Context
Ways to recover
Covid-19 Pandemic Situation - Bangladesh Perspective
Ways To Recover
Vaccine Diplomacy and Bangladesh
References of Figure
References
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Executive Summary
The coronavirus outbreak has spread to nearly every country on the planet.
As governments struggle with additional lockdown measures to combat the virus's
outbreak, national economies and businesses are counting the consequences. Despite
the development of new vaccines, many people are still unsure how recovery will
proceed. In this assignment effect of Covid-19 on developed and developing nations,
and on Bangladesh, also some approach to recover from this perilous situation is going
to be discussed.
Covid-19 Impact on Global Context
Figure no: 1 Figure no: 2
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Figure No: 05 Figure no: 06
Scientists calculated how previous pandemics impacted our economies and society and
discovered that they resulted in considerable and long-term GDP declines, as well as
rises in unemployment, income inequality, and public debt-to-GDP ratios.
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These estimates, according to the authors, underscore the need for a major
government reaction to mitigate COVID-19's lingering detrimental repercussions.
Fiscal and other macro policies should be tailored to achieve equitable and sustainable
growth. In addition, stimulus packages must be constructed in a "green" manner to
address not only economic and social benefits, but also medium- and long-term
sustainability. The travel industry has been badly damaged, with airlines cutting flights
and customers cancelling business trips and holidays. The pandemic-induced poverty
spike would exacerbate the poverty gap between men and women - UN Women,
September 2020. The epidemic will push 47 million additional women and girls into
poverty, reversing decades of progress toward poverty eradication - UNDP, September
2020In the workplace, the pandemic will “take our women 10 years back,” according to
the New York Times in September 2020. Improving logistics performance might help
the economy recover faster and become more competitive. The study identifies ways to
upgrade the logistics system in order to maintain company continuity and resilience.
This may be accomplished by implementing a system-wide plan to improve logistics
efficiency, infrastructure quality, capacity, and management, logistics service quality
and integration, and the seamless integration of regional logistics services. COVID-19,
according to Oxfam, has the potential to force half a billion people into poverty. The
impact will be felt most acutely in the world's poorest regions. The United Nations
estimates that $2.5 trillion will be required to help poor nations get through the crisis.
Oxfam has warned that a COVID-19-induced recession may force an additional half a
billion people into poverty, accounting for 8% of the world's population, unless
immediate action is done. The study, conducted by King's College London and the
Australian National University, looked at the short-term impact of limiting the
coronavirus on worldwide monetary poverty using the World Bank's $1.90, $3.20, and
$5.50 per day poverty levels. According to the research, global poverty levels would
rise for the first time since 1990 under all three scenarios, with up to a decade of
progress lost globally. The consequences are expected to be much more severe in
some of the world's hardest-hit regions, such as North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and
the Middle East, where up to 30 years of development might be lost. The worst
scenario entails a 20% drop in income, resulting in an additional 548 million people
living on less than $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank. According to the United
Nations, $2.5 trillion is required to help developing nations through the crisis, and
nearly half of all employment in Africa might be destroyed. Next week, G20 ministers,
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the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund will meet to discuss debt relief
for poorer nations. Oxfam has asked them to commit to a global rescue package and
mobilize the UN-specified amount to avoid a global economic meltdown. The
immediate cancellation of $1 trillion in debt is one possibility for raising funds, The IMF
is releasing an additional $1 trillion in SDRs, as well as increasing aid disbursements to
suffering nations and enacting emergency solidarity levies.
Ways to recover
It is critical to work together globally to develop and provide low-cost medicines and
vaccinations to all countries. Vaccination is a worldwide public benefit that saves lives
and, in the long run, saves money for taxpayers in every country. The sooner the
worldwide epidemic is ended, the faster economies can recover and individuals will
want less government assistance. Given the extremely high level of uncertainty,
strategies should be flexible and varied in response to shifting economic and pandemic
situations. Given the tightening financial restrictions, most countries will have to
accomplish more with less. This includes focusing on the most vulnerable and
hardest-hit groups, such as the poor, women, and informal workers, as well as
businesses that are likely to survive the crisis or are strategically essential to the
economy. Even after doing their share, many low-income nations will encounter
problems. They will require extra help, such as subsidies, concessional financing, the
continuation of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, or debt restructuring in some
circumstances. It will be critical to have the Common Framework for Debt Treatments
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up and running as soon as possible, as well as to broaden the eligibility of debtor
nations. In the post-COVID19 era, fiscal policy should support a green, digital, and
inclusive restructuring of the economy. Priorities include the following: Investing in
health-care systems (such as vaccines), education, and infrastructure. Global growth
may be boosted by a concerted green public investment drive by nations with
budgetary freedom. Climate change mitigation and digitization should be the goals of
projects, which should ideally include private sector engagement. Providing hiring
subsidies, increased training, and job search initiatives to assist individuals in returning
to work and transitioning between employment if necessary; Strengthening social
protection mechanisms to aid in the fight against poverty and inequality; To gain the
full advantages of fiscal assistance, rethinking tax systems to encourage more justice
and give incentives to safeguard the environment; and cutting unnecessary
expenditure, enhancing the transparency of spending programs, and improving
governance procedures.Policymakers will have to find a compromise between
providing more immediate assistance to guarantee a strong recovery and keeping debt
under control in the long run. It will be critical to develop credible multi-year income
and spending frameworks (including how to enhance fiscal positions over the medium
term), especially when debt is high and funding is scarce. In summary, governments
must win the immunization race, adapt to shifting economic conditions with flexibility,
and provide the groundwork for a greener, fairer, and longer-lasting recovery.
Covid-19 Pandemic Situation - Bangladesh Perspective
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While the world economy is expected to expand at a negative rate of -4.4 percent on
average in 2020, Bangladesh is one of the few economies with positive growth,
suggesting that it is more macroeconomic resilient, according to an IMF research issued
in October 2020. Bangladesh remains one of the top-five robust economies during
pandemic crises, according to studies performed by many international institutes, and
is also regarded as one of the promising economies by the global business community.
COVID-19 has undoubtedly wreaked havoc on Bangladesh's economy and reduced the
country's anticipated GDP growth rate. Due to a drop in worldwide demand and a slew
of order suspensions and cancellations for major export products of the RMG industry,
the country's export powerhouse, export numbers have dropped by 15% from the
previous year. Due to material import delays, stalled building projects, and dropping
gasoline prices in the global economy, import statistics have also fallen. Despite the
government's constant attempts to improve the country's economic climate, from a
bird's eye view, Due to the worldwide recession brought on by the pandemic, FDI to
Bangladesh has decreased in terms of actual inflows as well as projected investments
in 2020. Bangladesh's government has been concentrating heavily on expanding both
domestic and international investment into the country through reinvestments,
mergers and acquisitions, and greenfield projects. It has already taken excellent
initiatives in upgrading port, road, rail, and power plant infrastructures, developing a
large number of economic zones, and making ground-breaking progress in improving
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the country's business climate; and all of this has brought Bangladesh into the global
spotlight as a role model for economic development before the pandemic began.
However, in order to maintain this rapid growth rate, policymakers must now do their
research and develop the appropriate investment policies and strategies to attract
additional FDI. Ordinary laborers, garment factory employees, transportation workers,
particularly rickshaw and van pullers, and small shopkeepers have been the worst hit
by the crisis. Because they have no social security and only a small percentage of the
population benefits from the government's social safety net, they must rely on their
meager savings or family to get through the crisis. Growth of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) should not be the primary goal of the economic recovery. Unfortunately,
many policymakers, including those in Bangladesh, are still fixated on the GDP growth
rate. There should be a long-term reduction in poverty and inequality, as well as
adequate jobs. Universal social safety, primary health care, and education should all be
included. The Novel CoronaVirus (COVID-19) has had a significant detrimental
influence on the livelihood of Bangladesh's marginalized population. Due to the
ongoing epidemic, many people working in the informal economy have lost their jobs
and income. Unemployment and poverty have become more prevalent in both urban
and rural areas around the country. Because Bangladesh's economic growth has not
been inclusive, the country's progress in recent decades has not been able to prevent
impoverished people from becoming extremely destitute. This research aims to
pinpoint some of the negative effects that COVID-19 has had on the lives of
marginalized people. Then it goes on to point out some of the major flaws in current
economic policy. Only growth-oriented policy measures, according to this essay, will
suffice to rebuild the economy in the post-COVID period. Bangladesh, on the other
hand, must embrace employment-oriented economic policies capable of increasing job
creation while also lowering poverty and inequality. In the post-COVID age, solely
growth-oriented policy initiatives, according to this essay, will be insufficient to rebuild
the economy. Bangladesh, on the other hand, needs to embrace employment-oriented
economic policies capable of increasing job creation while also lowering poverty and
inequality. According to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters
Association (BGMEA), foreign clients have canceled or delayed export orders worth
US$2.95 billion from 933 factories throughout the nation. Fair Wear (2020) claimed
that cancellations of scheduled orders totaled almost US$1.7 billion from April to
December 2020, using BGMEA statistics. Around 2.3 million RMG workers (or 47% of
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the entire industry workforce) might be laid off as existing export contracts are
canceled and future export orders are unclear. People who work in private
non-government education establishments are another group that has been severely
impacted. Because the pupils of such private schools are unable to pay the fees, many
low-income school instructors in both rural and urban locations around the country
have lost their employment. Students at these institutions are mostly from low-income
households, and many have dropped out owing to the crisis. Not only kids, but also
instructors, are at risk of dropping out during the Corona outbreak. Teachers working in
private kindergartens and non-government schools around the country are
experiencing extreme economic instability. Many of them are being forced to move to
low-level occupations and a new poor class is being created. The ‘Amar Gram Amar
Shohor' project has the potential to be a driver of regional economic activity and
employment development. Rapid implementation of this initiative in rural regions may
allow for the decentralization of services and local economic activity.Decentralisation
of online and digital sectors will boost employment and revenue in the rural areas.
Three areas are critical for making economic growth inclusive for all people: poverty
alleviation, job growth, and inequality reduction. The widely used indices of poverty
and inequality in Bangladesh's economy are far from realistic, and are based only on
income measurement. As a result, the multifaceted character of poverty goes
unnoticed and unaddressed. In the post-COVID era, a policy focus on such a
multi-dimensional approach of poverty reduction is required. It is critical that the
poverty reduction strategy, as well as the policy development and actions, address the
multifaceted nature of poverty. Inequality is another major economic problem.
Bangladesh has witnessed rapid economic growth in recent decades, as well as a
bleak image of inequality. Inequality isn't only a financial issue. Apart from economic
inequality, social inequality is also a major problem in Bangladesh. There are
significant disparities in health and educational services. Despite significant growth in
recent decades, economic inequality has risen, raising concerns about how inclusive
this progress is. Inequality in society grows if substantial employment is not generated,
if corruption is prevalent, and if some major groups who are favored in many ways
economically and politically amass illicit riches and smuggle money out of the country.
The causes of inequality cannot be eradicated unless action is done against them.
There are horrible inequities in education and healthcare, in addition to economic
inequality. When it comes to healthcare, affluent individuals have access to superior
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treatment both at home and abroad, but a huge number of people who rely on
government health care suffer in a variety of ways. COVID-19 showed us a lot about
how difficult, if not impossible, it is for the country to deal with the crisis in the coming
days with such a deteriorated health system. Bangladesh's global value chain has been
hampered by the closure of international borders, which has resulted in a lack of raw
material sources and the cancellation of orders. The Readymade Garment Sector
(RMG) has received attention as a result of the cancellation of almost $3 billion in work
orders, which might affect around 4 million people directly employed in the industry.
Bangladeshi banks were already in trouble before the epidemic, and the problem is
only getting worse. Except for a few prominent pharmaceutical businesses, most
pharmaceutical companies saw a drop in sales. Drugs, with the exception of those for
hyperacidity, fever, and cold, did not sell well. Furthermore, due to certain dishonest
dealers who hiked prices, the cost of basic goods grew at a considerable rate. The
airline sector also suffered significant consequences as a result of the cancellation of
all international and local flights. The International Air Transport Association (IATA)
estimates that the epidemic would cost the industry USD 252 million in revenue [43].
Furthermore, according to the SANEM prediction, if Covid-19 results in a 25% drop in
family income, Bangladesh's poverty rate will rise from 20.5 percent to 40.9 percent.
As a result, the progress made in reducing poverty over the last two decades may
come to an end.
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In conclusion, there is a chance to reconstruct the economy in a new way in the
post-COVID era. It is critical to have a plan and preparations in place on how to restore
the economy at this time. The COVID issue necessitates a paradigm shift in our
thinking. A fresh action plan for the drivers of Bangladesh's economy in the
post-COVID environment is also required. Simultaneously, it is time to implement
reforms and action plans that could not have been implemented in the pre-COVID era
but are critical for inclusive growth. A crisis, according to history, provides a chance to
think differently. One of the positive elements of the current crisis is that it allows us to
reconsider our development philosophy, economic philosophy, and future action plan.
Moving away from growth-centric limited thinking and toward a multi-dimensional
development strategy should be the emphasis of that new thinking. If this conversation
with partners, policymakers, and those engaged in development planning and
implementation can begin right now, and if the appropriate policies and action plans
can be established, In the post-COVID environment, the country will definitely be in a
far better position in terms of economic and social development.
Vaccine Diplomacy and Bangladesh
Covid-19 pandemic is a fluid situation where the state of progress constantly changes
with new information. While skeptics can claim the rate of inoculation might slow
down in the future, Bangladesh's early stage rollout has been an administrative
success, backed by consistent diplomacy. Only time will reveal how fast, or slow we
will go. When visiting Bangladesh, one can observe how vaccine diplomacy is carried
out. Bangladesh was compelled to hunt for new suppliers when the Serum Institute of
India abruptly stopped exporting 30 million Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. China and
Russia have extended new promises of assistance to Bangladesh. With the exception
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of India, China has proposed a regional framework to give emergency vaccine help to
South Asian countries. It's a novel approach to vaccination diplomacy in South Asia.
China, like India, has provided Bangladesh some vaccination doses as a gift.
Bangladesh and Russia are also working together to produce vaccines in Bangladesh.
However, obstacles remain, as Bangladesh suffers a vaccination shortage as a result of
the aforementioned global vaccine diplomacy. It's worth noting that COVAX is delaying
the delivery of vaccines to its signatory states as well. The third concern is the
dominance of the market system, which implies profit-seeking conduct on the part of
vaccine-producing governments and businesses. As countries attempt to ensure
supply and delivery, private-sector participation is growing, often at the request of
governments. It might lead to a situation in which private companies purchase their
own vaccine and distribute it to those who can afford it. If present trends continue, the
global vaccination disparity will become a serious concern, killing millions of people
and wreaking havoc on the lives of the world's poor. More significantly, it would have
devastating consequences for low-income countries. It would imperil their national
strengths in vital sectors like healthcare, the economy, and education. As a result, the
world must declare Covid-19 vaccines to be a public good and deal with the vaccine
divide in a multilateral and compassionate manner.
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References of Figure
1. Figure 01-08: Jones, L., Palumbo, D. and Brown, D. (2021). Coronavirus: How the
pandemic has changed the world economy. BBC News. [online] 24 Jan.
Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51706225.
2. Figure 09-16: DATABD.CO. (2020). COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A Visual Guide to
the Economic Impact. [online] Available at:
https://databd.co/stories/covid-19-in-bangladesh-a-visual-guide-to-the-econo
mic-impact-11064.
‌
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References
1. Hassan, A.M. (2021). Covid-19 vaccination: How’s Bangladesh doing compared to the
rest of the world? [online] The Daily Star. Available at:
https://www.thedailystar.net/coronavirus-deadly-new-threat/news/covid-19-vaccinatio
n-hows-bangladesh-doing-compared-the-rest-the-world-2049289 [Accessed 30 Jul.
2021].
2. ‌
Express, T.F. (n.d.). Bangladesh’s BoP surplus during the pandemic. [online] The Financial
Express. Available at:
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/bangladeshs-bop-surplus-during-the-pandemi
c-1622818669.
3. Express, T.F. (n.d.). Pandemic saps BD economic strengths. [online] The Financial
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/economy/pandemic-saps-bd-economic-strengths-15
90808869 [Accessed 30 Jul. 2021].
4. ‌
Express, T.F. (n.d.). International politics of Covid-19 vaccine. [online] The Financial
https://www.thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/international-politics-of-covid-19-vaccin
e-1614696072.
5. ‌
e-1614696072.
6. ‌
e-1614696072.
7. Hossain, D. (2021). Covid-19 vaccine divide and diplomacy: What we must do. [online]
The Daily Star. Available at:
https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/news/covid-19-vaccine-divide-and-diplomacy-wh
at-we-must-do-2085353 [Accessed 30 Jul. 2021].
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8. Dhaka Tribune. (2021). Bangladesh makes desperate diplomatic efforts to get Covid-19
vaccines. [online] Available at:
https://www.dhakatribune.com/health/coronavirus/2021/05/22/bangladesh-makes-de
sperate-diplomatic-efforts-to-get-covid-19-vaccines [Accessed 30 Jul. 2021].
9. LightCastle Partners. (2021). Vaccine Diplomacy and its Significance in Bangladesh.
[online] Available at:
https://www.lightcastlebd.com/insights/2021/06/vaccine-diplomacy-and-its-significan
ce-in-bangladesh [Accessed 30 Jul. 2021].
10. Express, T.F. (n.d.). International politics of Covid-19 vaccine. [online] The Financial
e-1614696072.
11. World Bank. (n.d.). $500M World Bank Financing for COVID-19 Vaccination in
Bangladesh. [online] Available at:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/03/18/bangladesh-500-milli
on-world-bank-financing-for-covid-19-vaccination-for-54-million-people.
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