By Paul Dorosh, Angga Pradesha, Selim Raihan, and James Thurlow

1. Paul Dorosh1, Angga Pradesha1, Selim Raihan2, & James Thurlow1
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Dept. of Economics, University of Dhaka & SANEM
Last updated: 2 December 2020
Contact: Paul Dorosh (p.dorosh@cigar.org) or Angga Pradesha (a.pradesha@cigar.org)
COVID-19 in Bangladesh
Impacts on Production, Poverty & Food Systems
Financial support from
Disclaimer: The analysis presented in this slide deck are the authors’ own
and do not necessarily reflect the view of the authors’ institutions.

2. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Updates since July 2020 analysis
• Foreign remittance inflows
• Central Bank data reports larger declines in Q2, but increased inflows in Q3
• Result: Larger economic losses in Q2 – smaller losses in Q3-Q4
• Export demand
• Data reports larger declines in export earnings in Q1 & Q2
• Result: Falling export demand becomes largest contributor to economic losses
• Industrial production
• Industrial impacts in Q2 aligned with Quantum Index of Production
• Result: Slightly larger economic costs relative to earlier estimates

3. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Recent Data | Remittances & Exports
• Remittances fell in February-
April, but recovered due to:
• Usual Eid-ul-Fitr holiday increases
• Final transfers from returning
workers with terminated contracts
• Overall, remittances in April-
June only 8.3% below trend
• Decline in exports is far larger
• Garment & total exports were 50%
below trend in April-June
• Modest reversal in July
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Foreign remittances inflows
(US$ millions per month)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Remittances Garment Exports Total Exports
Remittances vs. Export Earnings
(US$ millions per month)

4. Updated: Dec 2,2020
-26%
-57%
-3%
-84%
-4%
-69%
-11%
-97%
-37%
-22%
-1%
12%
3%
9%
33%
4%
9%
Non-food manufacturing
Beverages
Tobacco
Textiles
Wearing apparel
Leather products
Wood products
Petroleum
Chemicals
Pharmaceuticals
Rubber & plastic
Non-metal minerals
Computer equip.
Electrical equip.
Machinery
Vehicles
Furniture
Recent Data | Production & Mobility
• Non-food manufacturing
production fell 26% in April
• Large declines in beverages,
wearing apparel & equipment
• Some subsectors were already
declining before April
(may not be related to COVID-19,
e.g., petroleum & vehicles)
• Visits to shops, parks & offices
dropped sharply in April/May
(public transport declined as more
people remained at home)
Changing production levels in April
(April minus January-March monthly average)
Declined Rose
Source:MonthlyQuantumIndexofProductionSource:Googlemobilitydata
22%
Retail & recreation services
Surpermarkets & pharmacies
Parks, beaches, etc.
Public transport
Places of work
Places of residence
Changing mobility in April/May
(April-May minus February-March average)

5. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Preview of Results1

6. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Lockdown Imposes Heavy Economic Costs
• Bangladesh’s GDP is estimated to
have fallen by 29% during the
country’s 9-week lockdown
(compared to a no-COVID scenario)
• Food system is adversely affected by
falling consumer & export demand
(agri-food GDP falls by 8.2%, despite exemptions
to the agriculture sector)
• National poverty rate increases by
25%-points during the lockdown
(42 million more people temporarily living below
the national poverty line)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Economic impacts during 9-week
lockdown period
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
29.4
8.2
25.2
15.8
41.9
Percentage decline
in national GDP
Percentage decline
in agri-food system
GDP
Percentage point
increase in national
poverty rate
Decline in national
GDP in US$ billions
Increase in number
of poor people in
millions

7. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Costs Likely to Persist Throughout 2020
• Economy is gradually reopening
& many restrictions are easing
• But economic losses remain,
even with a faster easing
(GDP may be 8-11% lower in 2020
compared to a no-COVID scenario)
• Average GDP & poverty rates
for 2020 hide sharp mid-year
deteriorations
(many people & businesses may require
government support to cope & recover)
Change in
quarterly
GDP
Change in
national
poverty rate
(National
poverty line)
Quarterly national impacts under faster
or slower recovery scenarios
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
-2%
-24%
-5%
0%
-2%
-28%
-9%
-6%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Faster recovery Slower recovery
2%
19%
3%
0%
2%
23%
5%
4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

8. Updated: Dec 2,2020
COVID-19 Outbreak & Lockdown
Policies in Bangladesh2

9. Updated: Dec 2,2020
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
8-Mar
13-Mar
18-Mar
23-Mar
28-Mar
2-Apr
7-Apr
12-Apr
17-Apr
22-Apr
27-Apr
2-May
7-May
12-May
17-May
22-May
27-May
1-Jun
6-Jun
11-Jun
16-Jun
21-Jun
26-Jun
1-Jul
6-Jul
11-Jul
16-Jul
21-Jul
26-Jul
31-Jul
5-Aug
10-Aug
15-Aug
20-Aug
Confirmednewcases
COVID-19 Cases & Policy Timeline
First coronavirus
cases identified
in the country
The Ministry of Foreign
Affairs extended visa and
travel restrictions to prevent
further COVID-19 outbreaks.
Prime minister announces
US$8 billion stimulus
packages to cushion
economic downturn
caused by Covid-19.
Stimulus program in
agriculture introduced,
providing 4% interest loans (a
5% interest subsidy by
government)
Government ends
lockdown and
restrictions on the
movement of people
Government declares
public holiday from
March 26 to April 4 as
part of lockdown
measure.
Nationwide lockdown
extended multiple times
until May 30.
Lockdowns re-imposed in Cox’s
Bazar, Mogura, Khulna and
Habibganj districts.
Government requests IMF
disbursement of stimulus
package (bringing total
stimulus to Tk1 trillion
(3.6% of GDP)
Data link
Schools still closed
Social distancing remains on
public transport

10. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (1)
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Agriculture
• Farming activities exempted (essential sector)
• Movement restrictions occurred just after planting for winter crops
• Limited extension visits to farms, suspended development projects
Minimal
Mining & crude oil • Extraction operations shut down Minimal
Manufacturing
• Food processing & medicines exempted (essential sectors)
• Movement restrictions affected many operations
• Nonfood producing companies closed
High
Utilities • Electricity & water distribution exempted (essential sector) Minimal
Construction • Construction projects/sites closed, including most public works Minimal
Wholesale & retail
trade services
• Retailers of essential goods exempted, with limited trading times
• Social distancing restrictions affected market activity
High
Transportation,
storage & cargo
• Air travel closed; cargo/freight transport exempted (essential sector)
• Inter-district passenger transit closed
• Urban passenger transit reduced
High
Hotels & food
services
• Hotels, restaurant, cafés, bars closed apart from take-away foods
• Limited delivery options for food or other products
High

11. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (2)
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Banking, finance &
insurance
• Banks operating through digital platforms
• Other financial institutions closed or teleworking (e.g., insurance)
Minimal
Professional &
business services
• Almost all closed or teleworking (e.g., legal, accounting services)
• Activities involving in-person field visits affected (e.g., engineering)
Minimal
Public admin &
law enforcement
• Public services & agencies remain open, but most staff teleworking
• Police & security services exempted (essential)
Minimal
Education services
• All public schools closed without much scope for online delivery
• All private schools closed with some online materials
Some
Health services
• Health services exempted (essential)
• Elective operations reduced but rising number of COVID patients
Minimal
Sports &
entertainment
• Sports & outdoor entertainment banned
• Some activities operating (e.g., newspapers, radio & TV)
High
Other services
• In-person religious gatherings banned
• Informal repair firms limited due to movement restrictions
High

12. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Global & Other Nationwide Shocks
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Export demand
• Reduced international tourism & business travel
• Lower export demand for mineral exports
• Lower export demand for agricultural, other products
Some
Remittances • Decline in value of remittances sent by nationals working abroad Some
Government
revenues
Nationwide
• Fall in tax revenues due to decline in economic activity
Some
See detailed sector-level assumptions about production &
demand shocks in Annex at the end of slide deck

13. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Measuring Economic Impacts3

14. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Economywide Multiplier Analysis
• Lockdown policies & shocks have direct impacts on the operation
of certain sectors
e.g., closing businesses, restricting travel, etc.
• But they also generate indirect impacts on other sectors involved
in supply chains
i.e., input suppliers & downstream users
• Multiplier analysis uses sector input-output data to measure
direct & indirect impacts throughout & across supply chains
Includes impacts on GDP, jobs & household incomes
• Bangladesh model based on 2017/2018 social accounting matrix
(SAM) & 2015 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS)
(results scaled to 2019 GDP & employment levels)

15. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Economywide
Impacts
GDP | jobs
Incomes | poverty
Direct
impacts
Framework for Analyzing COVID-19
GlobalImpact Channels
(Due to partial or full lockdowns in other countries)
Indirect
impacts
DomesticImpact Channels
(Due to partial or full lockdowns in own country)
• Export demand
• Remittances & migration
• Foreign direct investments
• Agriculture
• Mining & crude oil
• Manufacturing
• Utilities (energy, water)
• Construction
• Whole & retail trade services
• Transportation, storage & cargo
• Hotels & food services
• Banking, finance & insurance
• Professional & business services
• Public administration & law enforcement
• Education services
• Health & social services
• Sports & entertainment
• Community & other services

16. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Impact Channels & Shocks
• Lockdowns are simulated using a
range of impact channels
• Shocks to each channel are imposed on
the model & impacts are simultaneously
traced across all supply chains
• Multiplier model separates entire
Bangladesh economy into 86 sectors
(Shocks imposed on final demand that
leads to the fall in production)
• Shocks estimated using:
• Community mobility data from Google
• Quantum Index of Industrial Production
• Remittance data from Central Bank
Impact channels used to replicate lockdowns
1 Restrictions on farming
2 Closing mining operations
3 Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
4 Restrictions on energy and water supply
5 Restrictions on construction activities
6 Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
7 Transport/travel restrictions
8 Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
9 Closing non-essential business services
10 Government work-from-home orders
11 Closing all schools in the country
12 Restrictions on hospitals and clinics
13 Banning sports & other entertainment
14 Domestic workers & other services
15 Reduced export demand
16 Falling foreign remittances
17 Falling government revenues
×
×
×
×
×
× No direct losses via these channels in
Bangladesh (e.g., exempted or no information)

17. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Key Assumptions
• Lockdown period
• Government introduced national holiday for 9 consecutive weeks
(26 March to 30 May)
• 1-week lockdown period imposed in Q1 (January-March) while the
remaining 8-week imposed in Q2 (April-June)*
• Assumptions
• All shocks are imposed nationwide given the broad scope of the
government’s lockdown directive
• Shocks are equally weighted across quarter since quarterly GDP data is
unavailable
* January-March and April-June are third & fourth quarters of the government’s fiscal year (July-June)

18. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Scenarios
• Impacts during 9-week lockdown period (26 March to 30 May)
• Impacts throughout 2020 by quarter
• Compare a faster vs. slower easing of restrictions
1
3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Full lockdown
period
Easing of
restrictions in Q3
Final easing by
end of Q4
(possibly incomplete
recovery)
Easing
restrict-
ions
during
rest of
Q2
2
1
32

19. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Economic Impacts During the
Lockdown Period4

20. Updated: Dec 2,2020
GDP Losses During Lockdown
National GDP drops 29% during the 9-week lockdown
(most economic losses occur in the industry & services sectors)
Assumes restrictions are not expanded or reintroduced
Change in total GDP during
lockdown period (%)
Change in total GDP during
lockdown period (US$ bil.)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
-29.4%
-4.6%
-35.4%
-32.5%
Total Agriculture Industry Services
-$15.8
-$0.3
-$5.7
-$9.8
Total Agriculture Industry Services

21. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Sources of GDP Losses
Falling export demand & restrictions on non-essential trade
services account for almost half of national GDP losses
Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to
loss in total GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Sharp decline on RMG export demand as
well as other merchandise products
Large knock-on effect on
wholesale/retail trade sectors
Restriction on
movement of people
Falling demand for other service
activities (incl. domestic workers)
Closing schools has modest
negative GDP impacts
Remittances important for household
incomes & consumption spending,
which indirectly affects GDP
27.0%
17.8%
16.4%
14.2%
12.4%
4.3%
2.9%
2.1%
1.9%
1.1%
Reduced export demand
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
Transport/travel restrictions
Domestic workers & other services
Falling government revenues
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
Closing all schools in the country
Falling foreign remittances
Limiting construction activities

22. Updated: Dec 2,2020
-8.2%
-4.6%
-13.2%
-8.2%
-46.0%
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services
Impacts on the Agri-Food System
Food supply exempt from most restrictions, but still indirectly
affected by falling intermediate demand & lower household incomes
(food services is directly affected by the closing of hotels, restaurants & bars,
but this is a small component of the overall agri-food system)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Share of
total GDP in
2019 (%)
(29.9%)
(14.1%)
(2.4%)
(12.2%)
(1.0%)
Change in agri-food GDP
during lockdown period (%)
Change in agri-food GDP during the
9-week lockdown period (US$ bil.)
-$1.3
-$0.3
-$0.2
-$0.5
-$0.3
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services

23. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Sources of Agri-Food System GDP Losses
Largest losses from restrictions on food services & knock-on
effects for upstream suppliers (e.g., farmers, processors, etc.)
Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to
loss in agri-food GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
Few agricultural exports directly
affected, but falling nonagricultural
exports reduces consumer incomes
& food demand
Closing food service providers is
more important for the food system
than for the overall economy
Source: Bangladesh
SAM Multiplier
Results
Falling remittances are also more
important for the food system
because households spend a large
share of their incomes on food
29.9%
17.1%
13.4%
11.2%
8.0%
7.9%
5.8%
5.2%
1.0%
0.5%
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Reduced export demand
Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
Falling government revenues
Transport/travel restrictions
Falling foreign remittances
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
Domestic workers & other services
Limiting construction activities
Closing all schools in the country

24. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Unpacking Agricultural GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during the lockdown (%)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
Share of
agricultural GDP
in 2020 (%)
(30.3%)
(3.1%)
(6.7%)
(6.3%)
(0.2%)
(0.4%)
(7.4%)
(9.2%)
(4.5%)
(5.2%)
(26.7%)
Cash crops hurt by falling demand from other
sectors including beverage processing linked
to closure of hotels and restaurants
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Food crops mainly affected by
falling consumer incomes
Decline in investment spending &
construction activities reduces demand
for timber & wood products
Falling export demand hurts
export-oriented crops, like jute
-5%
-4%
-2%
-3%
-3%
-2%
-20%
-12%
-15%
-4%
-6%
-1%
-16%
-4%
Agriculture
Crops
Cereals
Pulses & oilseeds
Root crops
Fruits & vegetables
Sugarcane
Beverage crops
Traditional export crops
Livestock
Meat & eggs
Dairy
Forestry
Fishing

25. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Unpacking Food Processing GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during the lockdown (%)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Declines in meat, fish, fruits & vegetables
driven by falling consumer demand with
implications for dietary quality
Combination of
Food processing
and Beverages &
tobacco share
make up 100%
(84.3%)
(6.3%)
(2.6%)
(2.8%)
(1.4%)
(10.3%)
(19.8%)
(0.7%)
(1.2%)
(39.2%)
(15.7%)
Demand reduction from restaurant and other
services activities generate negative spillover
effects on food processing industries.
Beverages & sugar refining badly affected by
closure of hotels and restaurants
-6%
-25%
-24%
-6%
-14%
-1%
-1%
-19%
-1%
-5%
-51%
Food processing
Meat
Fish
Dairy
Fruits & vegetables
Fats & oils
Cereal milling
Sugar refining
Coffee, tea, etc.
Other foods
Beverages & tobacco

26. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Impacts on Household Incomes
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Change in household incomes during lockdown (%)
(changes are relative to a no-COVID scenario)
All households experience large income losses
Larger income losses for higher-income households
(smaller losses for rural households because farming/food trade is exempt)
(but we do not consider how these households have savings &
assets that can help smooth income shocks)
-29%
-26%
-29%
-26%
-25%
-29%
-32%
All households Quintiles 1-2 Quintiles 3-5 Rural Rural Farm Rural Nonfarm Urban

27. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Poverty Impacts During the Lockdown
National poverty rate increases by 25%-points during the
lockdown period (≈ 42 mil. more poor people)
(poverty rate is the share of the population with
consumption spending below the national poverty line)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Increase in share of population living
in poverty during 9-week lockdowns
(%-points)
Increase in number of poor people
in Bangladesh during 9-week
lockdown (mil.)
25.2%
24.3%
27.5%
National Rural Urban
41.9
29.5
12.4
National Rural Urban

28. Updated: Dec 2,2020
5
Economic Impacts Under Fast & Slow
Easing of Restrictions & Recovery

29. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Easing of Restrictions & Recovery
Predicting Bangladesh’s “post-lockdown” period is challenging
Consider two stylized scenarios:
Faster easing: Economy rebounds strongly in Q3 & largely returns to normal by Dec 2020
Slower easing: Modest rebound in Q3 with productivity in Q4 still below pre-lockdown levels
Fast Recovery
(faster easing & recovery)
Slower Recovery
(gradual easing, slow recovery)
Q1
Jan
No lockdown restrictions or global shocks in this “pre-COVID-19” period
Feb
Mar
9-week lockdown (last week of March until end of May)
Global shocks start in late-March
Q2
Apr
May
Jun Losses reduced by 60% Losses reduced by 20%
Q3
Jul
Losses reduced by 80% Losses reduced by 50%Aug
Sep
Q4
Oct
Losses reduced by 99% Losses reduced by 80%Nov
Dec

30. Updated: Dec 2,2020
GDP Impacts with Recovery Scenarios
Source:
Bangladesh SAM
Multiplier Results
Change in quarterly & annual GDP under two recovery scenarios
(changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario)
National GDP is 8-11% lower over 2020 as a result of COVID-19
(given pre-COVID-19 growth trends, Bangladesh may well lose a year or more of growth)
-2.5%
-23.7%
-4.7%
0.0%
-7.7%
-27.5%
-8.6%
-5.7%
-11.1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Quarterly averages Annual
Faster easing & recovery Slower easing & recovery

31. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Cumulative Quarterly GDP Losses
Even with faster recovery, Bangladesh ends 2020 with lower GDP
(GDP losses accumulate each quarter & will take time to recover to pre-COVID levels)
Cumulative changes in 2020 GDP from end of 2019
(pre-COVID expected growth rate for 2020 was 7.2% according to IMF’s 2019 Economic Outlook)
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
End of
2019
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
US$billions
Pre-COVID expected growth
Lockdown + Faster easing & recovery
Lockdown + Slower easing & recovery

32. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Poverty Impacts with Recovery Scenarios
Source: Bangladesh SAM Multiplier Results
Change in national poverty rate with fast or slow easing of restrictions
(changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario)
Poverty should stabilize by end-2020 as people return to
work, incomes recover & consumer demand resumes
(but this hides sharp spike in mid-year poverty, when many households living close to
the poverty line will require government or other support to cope
1.5%
18.9%
3.0%
0.0%
22.8%
5.4%
3.7%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarterly averages
Faster easing & recovery Slower easing & recovery

33. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Further Considerations
• Measure contribution of the stimulus package & social protection
• Partly reflected in actual Q2 data, but may further accelerate recovery
• Household coping strategies
• Research on 1998 floods showed importance of borrowing & selling assets to
smooth household income losses
• But this may lengthen recovery time (i.e., repaying debts, recouping assets)
• Need phone survey data & analysis to understand household choices during
this extreme event
• Compounding factors affecting household incomes (e.g., floods)
• Need more/better data to refine analysis & inform policy options
• Health impacts & better management of health sector

34. Updated: Dec 2,2020
A
Detailed Assumptions About
Production & Demand Shocks

35. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (1)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Geography
affected1
Size of shock Detailed subsectors affected by shock2
Direct restrictions on
farming
Agriculture
(A)
National 0% Crop/animal production, hunting, related service activities (D01); forestry, logging (D02);
fishing, aquaculture (D03)
Limiting mining
operations
Mining, quarrying
(B)
National 0% Coal, lignite (D5); crude petroleum, natural gas (D06); metal ores (D07); quarrying (D08);
mining support service activities (D09)
Closing non-essential
manufacturing
operations
Manufacturing
(C)
National -20% to
-68%
Food products (D10); beverages, tobacco (D11-12); coke, refined petroleum (D19);
pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals (D21); non-metallic minerals (D23); electromedical
equipment (G266)
National -69% Textiles, clothing, leather (D13-15); wood, paper, printing (D16-18); Chemicals, rubber,
plastics (D20-21)
National -18% Metals (D24-25); equipment, machinery (D26-28 excl. G266); vehicles, transport
equipment (D29-30); furniture (D31), other manufactures (D33)
Disruptions to energy
and water supply
Electricity, gas (D);
water supply (E)
National 0% Electricity, gas, steam supply (D35); water collection, treatment, supply (D36); sewerage,
waste collection/remediation (D37-39)
Limiting construction
activities
Construction
(F)
National -1.2% Construction of buildings (D41); civil engineering (D42); specialized construction activities
(D43)
Closing non-essential
trading activities
Wholesale/retail
trade (G)
National 0% Agricultural raw materials, live animals (G462); agricultural machinery, equipment,
supplies (C4653); food, beverages, tobacco, incl. stalls & markets (G463 G471-472 C4781)
National -67% Motor vehicle trade/repair (D45); wholesale trade (D46 excl. G462-463 C4653 C4663);
retail trade (D47 excl. G471-472 G47 C4781); construction materials, hardware, plumbing,
heating equipment (C4663); automotive fuels (G473)
Transport/travel
restrictions
Transportation,
storage (H)
National -64% Postal/courier activities (D53); Freight rail/road/air transport (C4912 C4923 G512);
transport via pipeline (G493); transport support (G522); warehousing/storage (G521)
National -64% Sea/coastal/inland water transport (C5011-5012 C5022); Urban/suburban
passenger/other land transport (C4911 C4921-4922)
National -64% Passenger air transport (G511)
Government work-from-
home orders
Public
administration,
defense (O)
National 0% Public administration, defense, compulsory social security (D84)
Closing hotels, bars and
restaurants
Accommodation,
food services (I)
National -67% Accommodation (D55); food/beverage service activities (D56)

36. Updated: Dec 2,2020
Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (2)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Geography
affected1
Size of
shock
Detailed subsectors affected by shock2
Closing non-essential
business services
Information,
communication
(J); finance,
insurance (K); real
estate (L);
professional/
scientific/technica
l activities (M);
administrative/
support services
(N)
National 0% Publishing activities (D58); programming/broadcasting activities (D60);
telecommunications (D61); computer programming/consultancy activities (D62);
information service activities (D63); financial services, insurance, pension funding, auxiliary
services (D64-66); real estate activities (D68); security and investigation activities (D80);
accounting, bookkeeping, auditing, tax consultancy (G692); head offices, management
consultancy (D70); scientific research/development (D72); advertising, market research
(D73); other professional/scientific/technical activities (D74); legal activities (G692);
architectural/engineering activities (D71); veterinary activities (D75); motion
picture/video/television program production, etc. (D59); renting/leasing activities (D77);
employment activities (D78); travel agencies, tour operators (D79); building services,
landscape activities (D81); office administrative, office support, other business support
activities (D82)
Closing schools Education (P) National -20% Pre-primary and primary education (G851); secondary education (G852); higher education
(G853); other education (G854); educational support activities (G855)
Disruptions to hospitals
and clinics
Human health,
social work (Q)
National 0% Human health activities (D86); residential care activities (D87); social work activities
without accommodation (D88)
Banning sports & other
entertainment
Arts, recreation,
entertainment (R)
National -56% Creative/arts/entertainment activities (D90); libraries, archives, museums, other cultural
activities (D91); gambling, betting activities (D92); sports, amusement/recreation activities
(D93)
Domestic workers &
other services
Other service
activities (S);
households as
employers (T);
extraterritorial
organizations (U)
National -56% Membership organizations (D94); repairing computers & personal/household goods (D95);
other personal services (D96); domestic workers/personnel (D97); other production
activities of private households for own use (D98); extraterritorial organizations/bodies
(D99)
Note: (1) Channels, shocks, and affected sector in Bangladesh are nationwide; (2) The magnitude of negative shocks on certain sectors is measured
based on daily people movement trend overtime according to their location collected by GOOGLE *. (3) numbers in parentheses are International
Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC Revision 4) codes (by major section with detailed subsectors, D is division, G is group and C is class).
*Source: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/