Key trends from December IRCC operational data, which reflect in part a normal seasonal decline:
Overall, comparing 2021 with 2018 data, most immigration programs have largely recovered from the steep impact of COVID travel and other restrictions, with the exceptions of the Provincial Nominee Program, asylum claimants, citizenship and visitor visas.
As trumpeted by the Minister, the number of permanent resident admissions slightly exceeded the 2021 target: 403,540, compared to 401,000. Compared to 2018, admissions have increased by 26 percent.
As seen throughout the year, this is largely due to two-step immigration by temporary residents, largely from the International Mobility Program and the Post-Graduate Work Program. The percentage of the economic class increased to 63 percent, up from 58 percent.
While on a monthly basis, permanent residency applications increased, compared to 2018, applications declined by 43 percent. This likely reflects recognition by potential applicants of large backlogs and two-step immigration.
Temporary Residents - While on a monthly basis, IMP declined in December, compared to 2018, numbers increased by 35 percent.
Temporary Residents - TFWP while December numbers remained stable, compared to 2018, numbers increased by 24 percent, with the greatest increase in LMIA.
Students: Study permit applications increased slightly in December while study permits issued almost tripled. Compared to 2018, applications increased by 64 percent, and permits issued by 27 percent.
Asylum Claimants: The number of asylum claimants continued to increase in December, mainly due to the reopening of Roxham Road. Compared to 2018, the number of claimants decreased by 55 percent.
Citizenship: The citizenship program continues to recover with traditional numbers of new citizens on a monthly basis. Compared to 2018, the number of new citizens declined by 38 percent..
Visitor Visas: While on a monthly basis, the number of visitor visas issued continues to approach traditional levels. However, compared 2018, the number of visas has decreased by 82 percent.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - September 2021Andrew Griffith
Quick overview:
- Advisably or not, IRCC has caught up to 2019 levels and will, as we have shared, likely come close to target of 400,000, with bulk coming from TR transitions
- TRs still below pre-covid levels
- Student applications and admissions higher than pre-covid
- Asylum claimants creeping up given reduced travel restrictions. Irregular arrivals at Roxham Road also up.
- Citizenship ramping up but still significantly below 2019
- Visas have increased given reduced travel restrictions
Covid 19 immigration effects - key slides - october 2021 draft Andrew Griffith
Key trends from October IRCC operational data:
Number of permanent resident admissions on track to be close to 2021 target of 401,000, largely due to two-step immigration by temporary residents. Transition from temporary residents to permanent residents accounts for about three quarters of all permanent resident admissions.The economic class forms a slightly increasing percentage (from 57% in 2019 to 62% in 2021 YTD).
Interestingly, applications continue to decline in recent months, perhaps reflecting increased recognition that other programs, such as students, offer better pathways to permanent residency.
Temporary Residents - IMP shrunk in October, both with respect to October 2020 and October 2019, Temporary Residents - TFWP while overall numbers remained stable, caregivers dropped significantly in contrast to agriculture and LMIA.
Students: Seasonal decline of study permits as well as applications.
Asylum Claimants: Small increase in the number of asylum claimants, mainly at airports given reduced travel restrictions. Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) remain small in number.à
Citizenship: Significant increase from 13,525 in September to 19,124 in October, approaching more traditional levels.
Visitor Visas: Remain much lower than normal, about one-third of traditional levels, October 2021 compared to 2019 average.
This deck looks at the Canadian citizenship program and the need for modernization in the context of Budget 2021's allocation of funding to upgrade IRCC's IT infrastructure. It contrast the current citizenship process with a streamlined process that makes it easier for applicants and more efficient for the government. This was presented at a modernization discussion organized by the Public Policy Forum.
Regular monthly update of impact of COVID on the suite of immigration programs: Permanent Residents, Temporary Residents, Asylum Seekers, International Students, Settlement Services, Citizenship and Visitor Visas.
The major change is with respect to Permanent Resident Admissions, which have more than doubled from 17,085 in May to 36,625 in June for all three classes. Compared to June 2019, however, only the Economic class increased. (Minister Mendicino just revealed that July admissions are close to 40,000, indicating government was well on its way to meeting this year's questionable target of 401,000 new Permanent Residents).
Close to three-quarters of new Permanent Residents were former Temporary Residents transitioning.
Temporary Residents (International Mobility Program) were up significantly while Temporary Foreign Worker Program was stable.
Study permit applications and permits also increased, both on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to 2019.
While the number of new citizens has increased compared to May, compared to 2019 the numbers are down by over half.
Impact of Covid-19 on Immigration to Canada - Working Deck - Full November 20...Andrew Griffith
This document summarizes immigration statistics in Canada from 2018 to October 2020. It shows declines across most immigration programs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Permanent resident admissions fell by over 70% year-over-year in April-November 2019-2020. Temporary foreign workers decreased by over 60% in the same period. International mobility programs and asylum claims also declined significantly. The document provides detailed charts and analysis on changes in permanent residents, temporary residents, refugee claimants and other visa categories by region, country and program.
This document summarizes immigration trends in Canada from 2018 to July 2021. It shows that while immigration levels began recovering in 2021 from pandemic lows in 2020, admissions of permanent residents and temporary residents in 2021 remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Permanent resident admissions increased most for economic immigrants and family class immigrants in July 2021 compared to previous years. Meanwhile, asylum claims and international student permits grew substantially in July 2021, but settlement services and citizenship applications continued declining from pre-pandemic levels.
IRCC is well on the way to meeting its 2021 target of some 400,000 Permanent Residents: To date 221,360 Jan-Aug 2021 compared to 228,410 in 2019, with close to 40,000 in July and August. The vast majority are transitioning from temporary residency, primarily the PGWP and IMP.
Great percentage increase is, not surprisingly, with respect to Afghans, both in terms of applications (from an average of 200 in the first six months of the year to close to 8,000 in August) and admissions (from an average of 170 to over 1,000).
The number of Temporary Residents/IMP continues to increase, particularly with respect to “Canadian interests” (post-graduate employment accounting for more than half, spouses of skilled workers accounting for 9 percent, and intra-corporate transferees 3 percent). On the other hand, the number of Temporary Foreign Workers Program decreased, reflecting lower demand in the agriculture sector.
Applications for study permits have largely recovered from pre-pandemic levels (down only 5 percent), as have the number of study permits issued albeit to a lessor extent (down 13 percent).
Asylum Claimants slightly increased but still more than three-quarters down from pre-pandemic levels.
The number of new citizens seems to be stuck around 9-10,000 per month, compared to pre-pandemic numbers of about 20,000.
Visitor Visas issued increased sharply from monthly average of 4,200 in the first six months of the year to close to 40,000 in August, likely reflecting increased vaccinations and reduced travel restrictions.
Covid 19 Immigration Effects - November 2021 Andrew Griffith
Key trends from November IRCC operational data:
Minister Fraser announced just before Christmas that the government had met it 2021 target of 401,000, with November numbers being the highest monthly numbers to date, 47,340.
One consequence of the government’s fixation on meeting the target has been the inevitable increase in backlogs: 548,000 permanent residence applications, 776,000 temporary residence applications, and 468,000 Canadian citizenship applications.
Transition from temporary residents to permanent residents accounts for about three quarters of all permanent resident admissions, as can be seen also in Express Entry Invitation to Apply and Admissions data. The economic class forms a slightly increasing percentage (from 57% in 2019 to 62.1% in 2021 YTD), reflecting in part a significant increase in the latter half of 2021.
Meanwhile, applications continue to decline slightly along with web interest given increased two-step immigration from international students and those on work permits and their family members.
Temporary Residents - IMP remained stable compared to the previous month but declined with respect to November 2020 and 2019.
Temporary Residents - TFWP small decline, largely due to agriculture workers and those with a LMIA.
Students: Seasonal decline of study permits but a November increase in applications year-over-year (and compared to 2019), suggesting greater awareness and interest in two-step immigration.
Asylum Claimants: Significant increase in the number of asylum claimants, given reduced travel restrictions. Significant increase also for Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc), with close to one thousand in November.
Citizenship: Program continues to recover to normal levels and starting to make a small dent in the backlog
Visitor Visas: While numbers have increased given reduced travel restrictions, still remain slightly more than half of traditional levels (2019).
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - September 2021Andrew Griffith
Quick overview:
- Advisably or not, IRCC has caught up to 2019 levels and will, as we have shared, likely come close to target of 400,000, with bulk coming from TR transitions
- TRs still below pre-covid levels
- Student applications and admissions higher than pre-covid
- Asylum claimants creeping up given reduced travel restrictions. Irregular arrivals at Roxham Road also up.
- Citizenship ramping up but still significantly below 2019
- Visas have increased given reduced travel restrictions
Covid 19 immigration effects - key slides - october 2021 draft Andrew Griffith
Key trends from October IRCC operational data:
Number of permanent resident admissions on track to be close to 2021 target of 401,000, largely due to two-step immigration by temporary residents. Transition from temporary residents to permanent residents accounts for about three quarters of all permanent resident admissions.The economic class forms a slightly increasing percentage (from 57% in 2019 to 62% in 2021 YTD).
Interestingly, applications continue to decline in recent months, perhaps reflecting increased recognition that other programs, such as students, offer better pathways to permanent residency.
Temporary Residents - IMP shrunk in October, both with respect to October 2020 and October 2019, Temporary Residents - TFWP while overall numbers remained stable, caregivers dropped significantly in contrast to agriculture and LMIA.
Students: Seasonal decline of study permits as well as applications.
Asylum Claimants: Small increase in the number of asylum claimants, mainly at airports given reduced travel restrictions. Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) remain small in number.à
Citizenship: Significant increase from 13,525 in September to 19,124 in October, approaching more traditional levels.
Visitor Visas: Remain much lower than normal, about one-third of traditional levels, October 2021 compared to 2019 average.
This deck looks at the Canadian citizenship program and the need for modernization in the context of Budget 2021's allocation of funding to upgrade IRCC's IT infrastructure. It contrast the current citizenship process with a streamlined process that makes it easier for applicants and more efficient for the government. This was presented at a modernization discussion organized by the Public Policy Forum.
Regular monthly update of impact of COVID on the suite of immigration programs: Permanent Residents, Temporary Residents, Asylum Seekers, International Students, Settlement Services, Citizenship and Visitor Visas.
The major change is with respect to Permanent Resident Admissions, which have more than doubled from 17,085 in May to 36,625 in June for all three classes. Compared to June 2019, however, only the Economic class increased. (Minister Mendicino just revealed that July admissions are close to 40,000, indicating government was well on its way to meeting this year's questionable target of 401,000 new Permanent Residents).
Close to three-quarters of new Permanent Residents were former Temporary Residents transitioning.
Temporary Residents (International Mobility Program) were up significantly while Temporary Foreign Worker Program was stable.
Study permit applications and permits also increased, both on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to 2019.
While the number of new citizens has increased compared to May, compared to 2019 the numbers are down by over half.
Impact of Covid-19 on Immigration to Canada - Working Deck - Full November 20...Andrew Griffith
This document summarizes immigration statistics in Canada from 2018 to October 2020. It shows declines across most immigration programs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Permanent resident admissions fell by over 70% year-over-year in April-November 2019-2020. Temporary foreign workers decreased by over 60% in the same period. International mobility programs and asylum claims also declined significantly. The document provides detailed charts and analysis on changes in permanent residents, temporary residents, refugee claimants and other visa categories by region, country and program.
This document summarizes immigration trends in Canada from 2018 to July 2021. It shows that while immigration levels began recovering in 2021 from pandemic lows in 2020, admissions of permanent residents and temporary residents in 2021 remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Permanent resident admissions increased most for economic immigrants and family class immigrants in July 2021 compared to previous years. Meanwhile, asylum claims and international student permits grew substantially in July 2021, but settlement services and citizenship applications continued declining from pre-pandemic levels.
IRCC is well on the way to meeting its 2021 target of some 400,000 Permanent Residents: To date 221,360 Jan-Aug 2021 compared to 228,410 in 2019, with close to 40,000 in July and August. The vast majority are transitioning from temporary residency, primarily the PGWP and IMP.
Great percentage increase is, not surprisingly, with respect to Afghans, both in terms of applications (from an average of 200 in the first six months of the year to close to 8,000 in August) and admissions (from an average of 170 to over 1,000).
The number of Temporary Residents/IMP continues to increase, particularly with respect to “Canadian interests” (post-graduate employment accounting for more than half, spouses of skilled workers accounting for 9 percent, and intra-corporate transferees 3 percent). On the other hand, the number of Temporary Foreign Workers Program decreased, reflecting lower demand in the agriculture sector.
Applications for study permits have largely recovered from pre-pandemic levels (down only 5 percent), as have the number of study permits issued albeit to a lessor extent (down 13 percent).
Asylum Claimants slightly increased but still more than three-quarters down from pre-pandemic levels.
The number of new citizens seems to be stuck around 9-10,000 per month, compared to pre-pandemic numbers of about 20,000.
Visitor Visas issued increased sharply from monthly average of 4,200 in the first six months of the year to close to 40,000 in August, likely reflecting increased vaccinations and reduced travel restrictions.
Covid 19 Immigration Effects - November 2021 Andrew Griffith
Key trends from November IRCC operational data:
Minister Fraser announced just before Christmas that the government had met it 2021 target of 401,000, with November numbers being the highest monthly numbers to date, 47,340.
One consequence of the government’s fixation on meeting the target has been the inevitable increase in backlogs: 548,000 permanent residence applications, 776,000 temporary residence applications, and 468,000 Canadian citizenship applications.
Transition from temporary residents to permanent residents accounts for about three quarters of all permanent resident admissions, as can be seen also in Express Entry Invitation to Apply and Admissions data. The economic class forms a slightly increasing percentage (from 57% in 2019 to 62.1% in 2021 YTD), reflecting in part a significant increase in the latter half of 2021.
Meanwhile, applications continue to decline slightly along with web interest given increased two-step immigration from international students and those on work permits and their family members.
Temporary Residents - IMP remained stable compared to the previous month but declined with respect to November 2020 and 2019.
Temporary Residents - TFWP small decline, largely due to agriculture workers and those with a LMIA.
Students: Seasonal decline of study permits but a November increase in applications year-over-year (and compared to 2019), suggesting greater awareness and interest in two-step immigration.
Asylum Claimants: Significant increase in the number of asylum claimants, given reduced travel restrictions. Significant increase also for Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc), with close to one thousand in November.
Citizenship: Program continues to recover to normal levels and starting to make a small dent in the backlog
Visitor Visas: While numbers have increased given reduced travel restrictions, still remain slightly more than half of traditional levels (2019).
Covid 19 Immigration Effects - May 2021 draftAndrew Griffith
This document summarizes Canadian immigration statistics from 2018 to May 2021. It shows that immigration levels decreased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic across most programs. Permanent resident admissions fell sharply from 2019 levels, especially in the economic and family categories. Temporary resident numbers also declined substantially for international mobility programs and temporary foreign worker programs. Overall, the pandemic led to large declines compared to previous years across permanent and temporary immigration programs in Canada.
Updated data across all immigration programs. Given the travel restrictions and shutdowns in April 2021, the monthly percentage increases are exceedingly high, with comparisons to April 2019 more meaningful.
Permanent Residents admissions declined slightly in April, with the annualized rate of 275,000, making it increasingly likely that IRCC will have difficulty in meeting its target of 400,000 despite the various initiatives to meet the target (lower express entry thresholds, special temporary program, focus on temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency, Hong Kong programs).
Of note is the significant increase in the number of new citizens compared to earlier months in 2021, but still far below 2019.
My regular monthly update. Slide 3 summarizes the changes.
Overall, the trend of increased transitions from temporary to permanent residents continued in February and given recent policy and operational changes (lowering of Express Entry minimum CRS score, recently announced targets for healthcare and other essential workers, international students) this trend will likely continue for the balance of the year.
All of these changes, advisable or not, will help the government achieve (or partially achieve) its 2021 target of 401,000 new immigrants.
Moreover, these changes should also address the imbalance between the higher skilled, who transition at a higher (and increasing rates) and the lower skilled, with lower transition rates).
Interestingly, IMP data now shows a large percentage of “Other IMP Participants.” Typically, this was less than 50 per month but jumped to over 3,000 in February, perhaps due to delayed coding against the individual programs.
In contrast to the relative return to traditional levels of new immigrants, the number of new citizens remains much lower than pre-COVID, from an average of about 21,000 in 2019 to an average of about 6,000 from June 2020 when the program was restarted.
Web statistics show an increase of interest compared to last year for all programs save citizenship.
My regular monthly update. A few changes from earlier versions.
Slides now have one-year and two-year comparisons, highlighting change from 2019 pre-COVID baseline as well as well as post-COVID 2020. Citizenship application numbers include first quarter 2021.
Slide 3 summarizes the changes by program.
In terms of trends and observations, the overall picture is that of a return to the 2019 baseline, partially for Permanent Residents but close to normal for IMP, TFWP and study permits except where noted below. No significant recovery in citizenship numbers.
While still lower than 2019 baseline, PR admissions are recovering from their 2020 low. First quarter numbers of 70,000 suggest 280,000 for 2021 but government changes (lowering of Express Entry minimum score, Temporary resident to permanent resident pathway program, likely others to come) will result in higher numbers.
TR to Permanent Residents transition continues to remain at about half of total Permanent Residents numbers.
TRs, both IMP and TFWP, have all increased compared to 2019 save for IMP/Agreements.and TFWP/Caregivers. Most dramatic increase is with respect to “Other IMP Participants” which largely reflects open work permits for Hong Kong residents with HKSAR and BNO passports.
Study permit holders have increased from the 2019 baseline.
Asylum claimants remain significantly lower given border closures and travel restrictions.
Citizenship numbers remain much lower than the 2019 baseline, reflecting the partial reopening and move to online testing and ceremonies.
Visitor visas remain largely closed
Latest operational data on permanent and temporary migration to Canada (citizenship, settlement services and visitor visa data updates still pending):
August immigration numbers continued to drop for permanent residents compared to July with a slight increase in temporary workers
PRs: Admissions continued to decline from 13,650 in July to 11,315 in August, driven by the decline in Economic. August Year-over-year decline: Economic 70.8%, Family 48.6%, Refugees 60%
Provincial Nominee Program: Decrease from 3,050 in July to 1,969 in August. August year-over-year decrease: 77.7%
TR to PRs transition: Further decrease from 2,950 in July to 1,705 in August (some double counting). August year-over-year decrease of 86.9% (i.e., those already in Canada)
Temporary Residents:
TRs/IMP: Slight increase from 11,475 in July to 12,565 in August. August Year-over-year decline: Agreements 38.4%, Canadian Interests 49.8%
TRs/TFWP: Slight decline from 8,060 in July compared to 7,390 in August. August year-over-year decline: Caregivers 53.4%, Other LMIA 25.2%. Agriculture had a significant increase of 73.8%, perhaps reflecting a later start this year
Web “Get a work permit”: From 69,931 in August to 65,397 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decline: 64.5%
Students: Sharp increase from 13,455 in July to 40,130 in August (peak month). However, August year-over-year decrease: 64.5%
Applications: Stable from 3,352 in May to 3,286 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 91.6%
Web “Get a study permit”: From 67,292 in August to 59,474 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year increase: 12.5%
Asylum Claimants: Increase from 885 in July to 1,030 in August (about 75% inland). August year-over-year decrease: 83.7%
Settlement Services: Decline from 112,380 in April to 101,415 in May. Year-over-year decrease 9.8 percent
Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 13,216 in August to 6,007 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decrease: 57.6%
This deck presents the December 2020 data for permanent resident applications and admissions, work permit holders, study permit applications and holders, citizenship and visitor visas.
PRs: Admissions declined from 15,270 in November to 10,070 in December. December Year-over-year decline: Economic 69.9%, Family 25.2%. Refugees increase of 3.4%;
Temporary Residents/IMP: Increase from 33,875 in November (over 60% post-grad employment) to 39,885 in December. December Year-over-year change: Agreements increase of 25.4%, Canadian Interests increase of 67.0%
Temporary Residents/TFWP: Increase from 5,300 in November to 6,490 in December. December year-over-year increase: Caregivers 35.0%, Agriculture 23.8% and Other LMIA 36.9%.
Students: Increase from 15,000 in November to 24,775 in December. December year-over-year decrease of 50.3%
Students: Increase from 15,000 in November to 24,775 in December. December year-over-year decrease of 50.3%
Asylum Claimants: Small decline from 1,320 in November (about 75% inland) to 1,240 in December. December year-over-year decrease: 79.6%
Citizenship: Decrease from 3,365 in November to 2,476 in December. December Year-over-year decrease: 85.3%.
Visitor Visas: Slight decrease from 5,694 in November to 5,237 in December. December Year-over-year decrease: 90.4%
Impact of Covid-19 on Immigration to Canada - Working Deck- October 2020 Numb...Andrew Griffith
This deck reviews the impact of COVID-19 on immigration-related programs as of October 2020 (the latest data that is publicly available) with exceptions noted.
Programs covered include permanent residents, temporary residents (IMP, TFWP, students), asylum claimants, citizenship and visitor visas. Data is from IRCC/Opendata.
The deck highlights the commonalities and differences in impact between different programs, their respective categories or types and the top 10 source countries for each program.
The deck also includes website outside Canada traffic for work permits, study permits, integration services and citizenship. This can be seen as a leading indicator as this data becomes available immidiately after end month (e.g., December 2020).
The data forsettlement services from May (special run).
While there has been a slight recovery from the virtually complete shutdowns of the April-June quarter, the decline in all programs is over 60 percent for the April-October period.
This document summarizes Cambodia's progress in reducing poverty between 2004 and 2012 based on official estimates. It finds that poverty rates declined significantly from 53.2% in 2004 to 20.5% in 2011 due to rising rice prices and production, pro-poor economic growth, and investments in rural infrastructure by the government. However, challenges remain as the poor remain concentrated in rural areas and are vulnerable to economic shocks. The document recommends policies to further enhance agriculture, diversify the economy, improve access to education, health, and social services, and strengthen accountability to reduce poverty and vulnerability.
Covid 19 Canadian Immigration Effects: May 2020 UpdateAndrew Griffith
This deck examines monthly changes due to COVID-19 on permanent resident admissions, temporary resident work permit holders, and study permit holders, broken down by category and program, region and top countries and province (Provincial Nominee Program and study permits).
The document summarizes modeling done by IFPRI on the short and long-term economic impacts of COVID-19 in developing countries. Initial short-term modeling estimated large GDP losses but smaller impacts on agriculture. Household income losses were larger for urban and non-poor households. Longer-term modeling for Ethiopia estimated continued GDP losses until 2022 even with recovery, with larger impacts if future waves occur through 2025. Poverty was estimated to increase more in urban areas initially but recover faster, while absolute poverty increases were mostly in rural areas. Remaining questions concern the role of policy in recovery, private sector recovery dynamics, and potential crowding out of rural investment by urban COVID responses.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given the biggest blow to the world economy after the great depression
1930s.Around 60% of the world population is either under severe or partial lockdown without having medical
solution to the coronavirus and affected the industrial sector severely.The impact is severe on
trade,manufacturing and MSMEs.Manufacturing sector may shrink from 5.5%to 20%,exports from 13.7% to
20.8%,imports from 17.3% to25%and MSMEs net value added (NVA) from 2.1%to5.7% in 2020
The document provides highlights from Kenya's 2012 Economic Survey. It summarizes Kenya's economic performance in 2011, noting GDP growth slowed to 4.4% from 5% in 2010 due to high oil prices, drought, and inflation. The agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism sectors grew while the stock market declined. Inflation increased to 14% in 2011. The economic outlook for 2012 projected lower GDP growth of 4.2% due to high fuel costs and inflation.
The document analyzes the economic and poverty impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's economy through multiplier analysis and microsimulation modeling. Key findings include:
- Myanmar's GDP is estimated to decline 41% during the 2-week lockdown period, with the largest impacts on services and construction. Over 5 million nonfarm jobs are also estimated to be lost.
- Under a fast recovery scenario, Myanmar's economy could contract by 2.2% in 2020, while a slow recovery could result in GDP growth of just 0.5%. Agricultural growth is estimated to be negative in both scenarios.
- Falling remittance incomes are estimated to increase Myanmar's poverty rate by 7.5 percentage points,
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisEdouardLotz
La crise sanitaire, économique et énergétique provoquée par le coronavirus a bouleversé les grands équilibres mondiaux. Dans le domaine de l'énergie, l'effondrement de la demande, provoquée par les mesures de confinement, a entraîné le prix des matières premières à des niveaux historiquement bas, mettant en péril l'industrie de ce secteur.
Ce rapport (en anglais) vise à détailler comment le coronavirus a affecté l'économie mondiale et les marchés énergétiques, avec un focus sur le marché pétrolier, particulièrement touché par cette crise.
Les perspectives d'avenir pour la consommation, la production et les prix des différentes matières premières (pétrole, gaz naturel, charbon et électricité) sont analysées au sein de cette publication, afin de donner une idée globale du futur secteur énergétique.
Une dernière partie, rédigée par Ronan Fleckstein, est consacrée aux effets de cette crise sur l'économie, le secteur hospitaliers et la chute des revenus pétroliers des Etats africains.
Ce rapport est également disponible sur le site américain Energy Central : https://energycentral.com/c/og/global-oil-market-and-covid-19-crisis-impact-and-forecast
N'hésitez pas à partager, télécharger ou commenter cette publication.
This document summarizes the results of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model analysis of the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on Malawi in 2020-2021. The analysis found that a two-month period of social distancing would reduce GDP by 16.5% and increase poverty, with urban households seeing larger income losses. Under a faster recovery scenario, the economy would recover close to pre-COVID levels by late 2021, while a slower recovery could still see impacts in 2021. Key sectors like services, industry and the agri-food system were significantly affected. The analysis provides estimates to help policymakers minimize economic disruption from COVID-19.
Kwaw Andam, Hyacinth Edeh, Victor Oboh, Karl Pauw & James Thurlow
One in a series of initial assessments of the economy-wide impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns in several African countries
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides November 2023AndrewGriffith27
No major changes from October.
The one element to flag is the sharp increase inn the number of asylum claimants, from an monthly average of about 10,000 January to June 2023 to about 15,000 July to November, largely driven by the easing of visa restrictions, with close to two-thirds of claims being “inland.” Given the large number of Mexican claimants, averaging more than 2,000 per month in 2023, there will continue to be calls to reimpose the visa requirement on Mexicans, as well as more general calls to restore the previous visa restrictions.
And of course the ongoing debates over immigration levels, including temporary workers and international students.
The government continues to make progress on backlogs but the significant not-meeting service standards: temporary residence 44 percent, permanent residence 45 percent, citizenship 72 percent, visitor visas 70 percent in backlog (November 30 data).
PRs: Decrease compared to October. YTD 412,000, 2021 same period 360,000. Of note, an ongoing and dramatic drop in TR2PR transitions, from 251,000 in 2021 to 172,000 in 2022 YTD. Quebec YTD 63,000, 2021 same period 44,000 (despite public debates).
TRs/IMP: Flat compared to October. YTD 446,000, 2021 same period, 305,000.
TRs/TFWP: Slight decrease compared to October. YTD 133,000, 2021 same period 105,000.
Students: Flat compared to October. YTD 479,000, 2021 same period 415,000.
Asylum claimants: Small increase compared to October. YTD 80,000, 2021 same period 19,000.
Settlement Services (July): Decrease compared to June. YTD 1,031,000, 2021 same period 918,000.
Citizenship: Increase compared to October. YTD 347,000, 2021 same period 115,000.
Visitor Visas. Increase compared to October. YTD 1,097,000, 2021 same period 194,000.
Covid 19 Immigration Effects - May 2021 draftAndrew Griffith
This document summarizes Canadian immigration statistics from 2018 to May 2021. It shows that immigration levels decreased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic across most programs. Permanent resident admissions fell sharply from 2019 levels, especially in the economic and family categories. Temporary resident numbers also declined substantially for international mobility programs and temporary foreign worker programs. Overall, the pandemic led to large declines compared to previous years across permanent and temporary immigration programs in Canada.
Updated data across all immigration programs. Given the travel restrictions and shutdowns in April 2021, the monthly percentage increases are exceedingly high, with comparisons to April 2019 more meaningful.
Permanent Residents admissions declined slightly in April, with the annualized rate of 275,000, making it increasingly likely that IRCC will have difficulty in meeting its target of 400,000 despite the various initiatives to meet the target (lower express entry thresholds, special temporary program, focus on temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency, Hong Kong programs).
Of note is the significant increase in the number of new citizens compared to earlier months in 2021, but still far below 2019.
My regular monthly update. Slide 3 summarizes the changes.
Overall, the trend of increased transitions from temporary to permanent residents continued in February and given recent policy and operational changes (lowering of Express Entry minimum CRS score, recently announced targets for healthcare and other essential workers, international students) this trend will likely continue for the balance of the year.
All of these changes, advisable or not, will help the government achieve (or partially achieve) its 2021 target of 401,000 new immigrants.
Moreover, these changes should also address the imbalance between the higher skilled, who transition at a higher (and increasing rates) and the lower skilled, with lower transition rates).
Interestingly, IMP data now shows a large percentage of “Other IMP Participants.” Typically, this was less than 50 per month but jumped to over 3,000 in February, perhaps due to delayed coding against the individual programs.
In contrast to the relative return to traditional levels of new immigrants, the number of new citizens remains much lower than pre-COVID, from an average of about 21,000 in 2019 to an average of about 6,000 from June 2020 when the program was restarted.
Web statistics show an increase of interest compared to last year for all programs save citizenship.
My regular monthly update. A few changes from earlier versions.
Slides now have one-year and two-year comparisons, highlighting change from 2019 pre-COVID baseline as well as well as post-COVID 2020. Citizenship application numbers include first quarter 2021.
Slide 3 summarizes the changes by program.
In terms of trends and observations, the overall picture is that of a return to the 2019 baseline, partially for Permanent Residents but close to normal for IMP, TFWP and study permits except where noted below. No significant recovery in citizenship numbers.
While still lower than 2019 baseline, PR admissions are recovering from their 2020 low. First quarter numbers of 70,000 suggest 280,000 for 2021 but government changes (lowering of Express Entry minimum score, Temporary resident to permanent resident pathway program, likely others to come) will result in higher numbers.
TR to Permanent Residents transition continues to remain at about half of total Permanent Residents numbers.
TRs, both IMP and TFWP, have all increased compared to 2019 save for IMP/Agreements.and TFWP/Caregivers. Most dramatic increase is with respect to “Other IMP Participants” which largely reflects open work permits for Hong Kong residents with HKSAR and BNO passports.
Study permit holders have increased from the 2019 baseline.
Asylum claimants remain significantly lower given border closures and travel restrictions.
Citizenship numbers remain much lower than the 2019 baseline, reflecting the partial reopening and move to online testing and ceremonies.
Visitor visas remain largely closed
Latest operational data on permanent and temporary migration to Canada (citizenship, settlement services and visitor visa data updates still pending):
August immigration numbers continued to drop for permanent residents compared to July with a slight increase in temporary workers
PRs: Admissions continued to decline from 13,650 in July to 11,315 in August, driven by the decline in Economic. August Year-over-year decline: Economic 70.8%, Family 48.6%, Refugees 60%
Provincial Nominee Program: Decrease from 3,050 in July to 1,969 in August. August year-over-year decrease: 77.7%
TR to PRs transition: Further decrease from 2,950 in July to 1,705 in August (some double counting). August year-over-year decrease of 86.9% (i.e., those already in Canada)
Temporary Residents:
TRs/IMP: Slight increase from 11,475 in July to 12,565 in August. August Year-over-year decline: Agreements 38.4%, Canadian Interests 49.8%
TRs/TFWP: Slight decline from 8,060 in July compared to 7,390 in August. August year-over-year decline: Caregivers 53.4%, Other LMIA 25.2%. Agriculture had a significant increase of 73.8%, perhaps reflecting a later start this year
Web “Get a work permit”: From 69,931 in August to 65,397 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decline: 64.5%
Students: Sharp increase from 13,455 in July to 40,130 in August (peak month). However, August year-over-year decrease: 64.5%
Applications: Stable from 3,352 in May to 3,286 in June. June Year-over-year decrease: 91.6%
Web “Get a study permit”: From 67,292 in August to 59,474 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year increase: 12.5%
Asylum Claimants: Increase from 885 in July to 1,030 in August (about 75% inland). August year-over-year decrease: 83.7%
Settlement Services: Decline from 112,380 in April to 101,415 in May. Year-over-year decrease 9.8 percent
Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 13,216 in August to 6,007 in September (outside Canada). September Year-over-year decrease: 57.6%
This deck presents the December 2020 data for permanent resident applications and admissions, work permit holders, study permit applications and holders, citizenship and visitor visas.
PRs: Admissions declined from 15,270 in November to 10,070 in December. December Year-over-year decline: Economic 69.9%, Family 25.2%. Refugees increase of 3.4%;
Temporary Residents/IMP: Increase from 33,875 in November (over 60% post-grad employment) to 39,885 in December. December Year-over-year change: Agreements increase of 25.4%, Canadian Interests increase of 67.0%
Temporary Residents/TFWP: Increase from 5,300 in November to 6,490 in December. December year-over-year increase: Caregivers 35.0%, Agriculture 23.8% and Other LMIA 36.9%.
Students: Increase from 15,000 in November to 24,775 in December. December year-over-year decrease of 50.3%
Students: Increase from 15,000 in November to 24,775 in December. December year-over-year decrease of 50.3%
Asylum Claimants: Small decline from 1,320 in November (about 75% inland) to 1,240 in December. December year-over-year decrease: 79.6%
Citizenship: Decrease from 3,365 in November to 2,476 in December. December Year-over-year decrease: 85.3%.
Visitor Visas: Slight decrease from 5,694 in November to 5,237 in December. December Year-over-year decrease: 90.4%
Impact of Covid-19 on Immigration to Canada - Working Deck- October 2020 Numb...Andrew Griffith
This deck reviews the impact of COVID-19 on immigration-related programs as of October 2020 (the latest data that is publicly available) with exceptions noted.
Programs covered include permanent residents, temporary residents (IMP, TFWP, students), asylum claimants, citizenship and visitor visas. Data is from IRCC/Opendata.
The deck highlights the commonalities and differences in impact between different programs, their respective categories or types and the top 10 source countries for each program.
The deck also includes website outside Canada traffic for work permits, study permits, integration services and citizenship. This can be seen as a leading indicator as this data becomes available immidiately after end month (e.g., December 2020).
The data forsettlement services from May (special run).
While there has been a slight recovery from the virtually complete shutdowns of the April-June quarter, the decline in all programs is over 60 percent for the April-October period.
This document summarizes Cambodia's progress in reducing poverty between 2004 and 2012 based on official estimates. It finds that poverty rates declined significantly from 53.2% in 2004 to 20.5% in 2011 due to rising rice prices and production, pro-poor economic growth, and investments in rural infrastructure by the government. However, challenges remain as the poor remain concentrated in rural areas and are vulnerable to economic shocks. The document recommends policies to further enhance agriculture, diversify the economy, improve access to education, health, and social services, and strengthen accountability to reduce poverty and vulnerability.
Covid 19 Canadian Immigration Effects: May 2020 UpdateAndrew Griffith
This deck examines monthly changes due to COVID-19 on permanent resident admissions, temporary resident work permit holders, and study permit holders, broken down by category and program, region and top countries and province (Provincial Nominee Program and study permits).
The document summarizes modeling done by IFPRI on the short and long-term economic impacts of COVID-19 in developing countries. Initial short-term modeling estimated large GDP losses but smaller impacts on agriculture. Household income losses were larger for urban and non-poor households. Longer-term modeling for Ethiopia estimated continued GDP losses until 2022 even with recovery, with larger impacts if future waves occur through 2025. Poverty was estimated to increase more in urban areas initially but recover faster, while absolute poverty increases were mostly in rural areas. Remaining questions concern the role of policy in recovery, private sector recovery dynamics, and potential crowding out of rural investment by urban COVID responses.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given the biggest blow to the world economy after the great depression
1930s.Around 60% of the world population is either under severe or partial lockdown without having medical
solution to the coronavirus and affected the industrial sector severely.The impact is severe on
trade,manufacturing and MSMEs.Manufacturing sector may shrink from 5.5%to 20%,exports from 13.7% to
20.8%,imports from 17.3% to25%and MSMEs net value added (NVA) from 2.1%to5.7% in 2020
The document provides highlights from Kenya's 2012 Economic Survey. It summarizes Kenya's economic performance in 2011, noting GDP growth slowed to 4.4% from 5% in 2010 due to high oil prices, drought, and inflation. The agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism sectors grew while the stock market declined. Inflation increased to 14% in 2011. The economic outlook for 2012 projected lower GDP growth of 4.2% due to high fuel costs and inflation.
The document analyzes the economic and poverty impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's economy through multiplier analysis and microsimulation modeling. Key findings include:
- Myanmar's GDP is estimated to decline 41% during the 2-week lockdown period, with the largest impacts on services and construction. Over 5 million nonfarm jobs are also estimated to be lost.
- Under a fast recovery scenario, Myanmar's economy could contract by 2.2% in 2020, while a slow recovery could result in GDP growth of just 0.5%. Agricultural growth is estimated to be negative in both scenarios.
- Falling remittance incomes are estimated to increase Myanmar's poverty rate by 7.5 percentage points,
The Global Oil Market and the Covid-19 CrisisEdouardLotz
La crise sanitaire, économique et énergétique provoquée par le coronavirus a bouleversé les grands équilibres mondiaux. Dans le domaine de l'énergie, l'effondrement de la demande, provoquée par les mesures de confinement, a entraîné le prix des matières premières à des niveaux historiquement bas, mettant en péril l'industrie de ce secteur.
Ce rapport (en anglais) vise à détailler comment le coronavirus a affecté l'économie mondiale et les marchés énergétiques, avec un focus sur le marché pétrolier, particulièrement touché par cette crise.
Les perspectives d'avenir pour la consommation, la production et les prix des différentes matières premières (pétrole, gaz naturel, charbon et électricité) sont analysées au sein de cette publication, afin de donner une idée globale du futur secteur énergétique.
Une dernière partie, rédigée par Ronan Fleckstein, est consacrée aux effets de cette crise sur l'économie, le secteur hospitaliers et la chute des revenus pétroliers des Etats africains.
Ce rapport est également disponible sur le site américain Energy Central : https://energycentral.com/c/og/global-oil-market-and-covid-19-crisis-impact-and-forecast
N'hésitez pas à partager, télécharger ou commenter cette publication.
This document summarizes the results of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier model analysis of the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on Malawi in 2020-2021. The analysis found that a two-month period of social distancing would reduce GDP by 16.5% and increase poverty, with urban households seeing larger income losses. Under a faster recovery scenario, the economy would recover close to pre-COVID levels by late 2021, while a slower recovery could still see impacts in 2021. Key sectors like services, industry and the agri-food system were significantly affected. The analysis provides estimates to help policymakers minimize economic disruption from COVID-19.
Kwaw Andam, Hyacinth Edeh, Victor Oboh, Karl Pauw & James Thurlow
One in a series of initial assessments of the economy-wide impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns in several African countries
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides November 2023AndrewGriffith27
No major changes from October.
The one element to flag is the sharp increase inn the number of asylum claimants, from an monthly average of about 10,000 January to June 2023 to about 15,000 July to November, largely driven by the easing of visa restrictions, with close to two-thirds of claims being “inland.” Given the large number of Mexican claimants, averaging more than 2,000 per month in 2023, there will continue to be calls to reimpose the visa requirement on Mexicans, as well as more general calls to restore the previous visa restrictions.
And of course the ongoing debates over immigration levels, including temporary workers and international students.
The government continues to make progress on backlogs but the significant not-meeting service standards: temporary residence 44 percent, permanent residence 45 percent, citizenship 72 percent, visitor visas 70 percent in backlog (November 30 data).
PRs: Decrease compared to October. YTD 412,000, 2021 same period 360,000. Of note, an ongoing and dramatic drop in TR2PR transitions, from 251,000 in 2021 to 172,000 in 2022 YTD. Quebec YTD 63,000, 2021 same period 44,000 (despite public debates).
TRs/IMP: Flat compared to October. YTD 446,000, 2021 same period, 305,000.
TRs/TFWP: Slight decrease compared to October. YTD 133,000, 2021 same period 105,000.
Students: Flat compared to October. YTD 479,000, 2021 same period 415,000.
Asylum claimants: Small increase compared to October. YTD 80,000, 2021 same period 19,000.
Settlement Services (July): Decrease compared to June. YTD 1,031,000, 2021 same period 918,000.
Citizenship: Increase compared to October. YTD 347,000, 2021 same period 115,000.
Visitor Visas. Increase compared to October. YTD 1,097,000, 2021 same period 194,000.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - October 2022Andrew Griffith
This document summarizes immigration statistics from 2018 to October 2022. It examines trends in permanent residents, temporary residents, asylum claimants, citizenship, and other programs. For permanent residents, admissions have declined for economic immigrants but increased for refugees. Express Entry invitations have increased substantially year-over-year. Temporary residents under international mobility programs and temporary foreign worker programs have generally increased since 2020. Asylum claims and irregular border crossings have sharply risen. Web traffic for immigration programs is up compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Regular monthly update of operational data on immigration programs, citizenship and visitor visas. Some July data delayed and not included (e.g., Permanent Residents source country). Slide 3 has highlights.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - September 2022Andrew Griffith
This document summarizes immigration statistics in Canada from 2018 to September 2022. It examines trends in permanent residents, temporary residents, asylum claimants, citizenship, and other programs. For most programs, admissions increased from 2020 levels but generally remained below pre-pandemic volumes. The largest increases were seen in provincial nominee admissions, temporary to permanent resident transitions, and asylum claims. Overall, immigration levels rebounded in 2021 but have yet to return to 2018 baseline levels for many categories.
Given IRCC delays in issuing citizenship data, have combined the May and June report.
At the half year mark, the government is on target to meet the levels plan for Permanent Residents (however misguided), with 263,000 to date or 57 percent of 465,000.
The percentage of Temporary Residents transitioning to Permanent Residents averages about 50 percent for both time periods.
The number of temporary residents continues to grow, with 385,000 compared to 185,000 for the January-June 2002 period for the International Mobility Program and 114,000 compared to 75,000 for the Temporary Foreign Workers program.
The same pattern applies to International students: 242,000 compared to 202,000 for the January-June 2002 period.
For asylum claimants: 53,000 compared to 37,000.
Unlike the above, the number of new citizens has no impact on housing, healthcare and infrastructure as they are virtually all here in Canada. Interestingly, this is the only program that has seen a decline in the January-June periods: 177,000 compared to 184,000 although still historically strong.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - March 2023Andrew Griffith
Latest monthly update of suite of immigration and related programs for March 2023 (web and some other date April 2023). Highlights:
PRs:
Admissions decline from 49,490 in February to 44,780 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021 in parentheses): Economic - PNP 45.3% (257.4%), Economic - Federal 2.2% (52.4%), Family 6.0% (122.2%), Refugees -1.7% (92.5%
Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decline from 22,636 (1,636 Arrima) in March to 8,020 (1,020 Arrima) in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2020): 386.4% (-54.8%)
TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline from 32,265 in February (some double counting) to 26,230 in March (about 60 % of all PRs). March year-over-year change (change from 2020): 26.6% (107.8%)
Temporary Residents:
TRs/IMP: Increase from 56,800 in February to 74,135 in March. March year-over-year (change from 2021): Agreements: -28.8% (-31.4%), Canadian Interests: 94.8% (50.5%), Other IMP Participants 550.8% (202.5%), Not stated 492.7% (2,066.5%)
TRs/TFWP: Increase from 13,290 in February to 19,395 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): Caregivers -5.0% (-52.9%), Agriculture 3.4% (4.7%) and Other LMIA 154.2% (101.9%).
Students:
Increase from 22,495 in February to 28,200 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): 9.4% (23.7%)
Applications: Increase from 58,410 in February to 70,875 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): 55.3% (60.8%)
Asylum Claimants:
Slight increase from 10,040 in February (half at border) to 11,570 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): 90.3% (803.9%)
Irregular arrivals: Decrease from 4,575 in February to 4,173 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): 66.8% (11,491.7%).
Settlement Services:
Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 11528,249,500 in July (most recent data). July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%)
Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Slight increase from 5,075 in March (outside Canada) to 5,452 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2021): 4.7% (-46.7%). In Canada: -6.7% (-45.7%)
Citizenship:
Stable from 28,233 in February to 28,249 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): -32.2% ((920.9%)
Visitor Visas: Increase from 130,050 in February (Ukrainians 11% of total) to 159,307 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): 79.8% (3,558.9%).
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - August 2022Andrew Griffith
NEW DATA on Settlement Services, showing an overall decline compared to the pre-pandemic with only partial recovery. Afghanistan and Ukraine have shown the greatest increase given the number of refugees from those two countries. Pre-arrival information and orientation, language assessment and resettlement assistance have increased the most.
While the government has made some progress in reducing backlogs with respect to temporary residents and citizenship, it has not made progress with respect to Permanent Residents.
PRs: Decline compared to July. YTD 308,000, 2021 same period 222,000.
TRs/IMP: Increase compared to July. YTD 280,000, 2021 same period, 228,000.
TRs/TFWP: Slight decrease compared to July. YTD 100,000, 2021 same period 90,000.
Students: Large seasonal increase compared to July (may reflect processing issues). YTD 366,000, 2021 same period 295,000.
Asylum claimants: Stable. YTD 53,000, 2021 same period 10,000.
Settlement Services (July): Decrease compared to June. YTD 1,031,000, 2021 same period 918,000.
Citizenship: Increase compared to July. YTD 248,000, 2021 same period 55,000.
Visitor Visas. Increase compared to July. YTD 752,000, 2021 same period 67,000.
Canadian Immigration Tracker - August 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
Regular monthly update across immigration programs and citizenship.
Highlights:
Two-thirds of permanent residents were former temporary residents, mainly reached a new high, mainly from International Mobility Program and the Post-Graduate Work Program. Year to date: Permanent Residents: 338,000 out of which 189,000 are former temporary residents.
Among temporary residents, the greatest growth is with respect to the International Mobility program, recently driven by “Research, educational or training programs,” over one-third of total IMP. Year to date: 605,000. The number of international students also increased dramatically (school year), year to date: 475,000.
Asylum claimants remain high, year to date: 85,000, the majority of which are inland claims, perhaps reflecting relaxed visa requirements and vetting.
The number of new citizens remains strong, largely driven by virtual ceremonies being the default option (ill-advised IMO). Year to date: 338,000.
Visitor visas issued year to date: 1,293,000.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - January 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
The government continues to make progress on backlogs although the percentage failing to meet service standards has not improved but deteriorated slightly: temporary residence 53 percent, permanent residence 56 percent and citizenship 27 percent. The backlog of visitor visas remains high at 70 percent (January 31 data).
Most programs show a seasonal increase following the Christmas holiday slowdown with the exception of students, asylum claimants (but irregular arrivals continued to increase) and visitor visas.
Of particular note is the dramatic increase in TR2PR transitions; after trending downwards in 2022, the number increased six-fold, accounting for more than 60 percent of all PRs.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - September 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
The document provides data and analysis on Canadian immigration trends from 2018 to September 2023 across various programs. Some key highlights include:
- Permanent resident admissions have declined in 2022 compared to 2018 baseline levels, with decreases in economic and family class admissions in September 2023 compared to the same period in 2021 and 2022.
- Express Entry invitations have decreased in October 2023 compared to previous years.
- Asylum claims have increased sharply in September 2023 compared to prior years, driven mainly by increases from India, Mexico, and Nigeria.
- Temporary residents and international mobility program participants have declined in September 2023 compared to 2021 and 2022 levels.
This presentation provides the latest operational data on permanent and temporary immigration to Canada, broken down by major programs and countries, along with citizenship and visitor visas.
The government's focus remains largely on Permanent Residents and "feeder groups" such as international students and other temporary residents.
While minimal progress has been made on reducing backlogs, operational levels have largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - April 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
Slide 3 provides the highlights.
Two changes that struct me:
- Sharp decline in Permanent Residents admissions: from 44,780 in March to 29,335 in Apri
- Sharp decline in new Canadian citizens: from 28,249 in March to 15,220 in April
Reasons unclear.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - February 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
Latest monthly update. Summary on slide 3.
One notable change is TR2PR back to forming over 60 percent of permanent resident admissions, 2 months in a row. Unclear whether deliberate decision to defuse concerns over housing availability and affordability or not.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - May 2022Andrew Griffith
May numbers are similar to April as the first months of the pandemic resulted in drastic shutdowns and reductions across the suite of immigration-related programs.
The number of TR2PR transitions continued to decline. While in 2021, these transitions (some double counting) averaged about 68 percent of all Permanent Residents admissions, in 2022 this share had dropped to about 51 percent, suggesting a decreased “inventory” and/or a conscious government decision too redress the balance and address backlogs.
Temporary residents (IMP and TFWP) continued reflected an ongoing return to pre-pandemic levels along with the seasonal changes in agriculture workers. The number of not-stated IMP has increased, from forming about 9 percent of all IMP in 2021 to about 23 percent in 2022, possibly reflecting coding issues.
International students, applications and permits, reflect normal seasonal patterns. As noted, given the number of media and other reports regarding private colleges being used more for immigration than study purposes (and related exploitation), IRCC needs to consider seriously disaggregating post-secondary study permits data to separate out public and private sector institutions.
Citizenship looks on track to continue whittling away at the backlog of about 400,000 (as if June 1st).
The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel remains significant, comprising half of all visitor visas in April and May.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - December 2022 and full-year comp...Andrew Griffith
We now have complete 2022 data for all programs (save settlement services).
The government continues to make progress on backlogs although the percentage failing to meet service standards has largely not improved: temporary residence 45 percent, permanent residence 48 percent and citizenship 28 percent. The backlog of visitor visas, highlighted in recent media articles, remains high at 70 percent (Dec 31 data).
All programs show a seasonal decrease in December except where noted.
PRs: 435,000 in 2022 compared to 404,000 in 2021. Drop in TR2PR transitions, from 279,000 in 2021 to 177,000 in 2022. Quebec 69,000 in 2022, compared to 50,000 in 2021 (despite public debates).
TRs/IMP: 494,000 in 2022 compared to 326,000 in 2021.
TRs/TFWP: 137,000 in 2022 compared to 106,000 in 2021.
Students: December end-of-year increase. 576,000 in 2022 compared to 469,000 in 2021.
Asylum claimants: Increased in December compared to November. 92,000 in 2022 compared to 25,000 in 2021. I have added a slide on "irregular arrivals" and their percentage of total asylum claimants,
Settlement Services (July): Decrease compared to June. YTD 1,031,000, 2021 same period 918,000.
Citizenship: 369,000 in 2022 compared to 137,000 in 2021.
Visitor Visas. Stable compared to November. 1,238,000 in 2022 compared to 236,000 in 2021.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - February 2022.pdfAndrew Griffith
My regular monthly update.
Main observations:
With the holiday period over, February data indicates that IRCC is resuming more normal operations but large backlogs remain.
The percentage of Provincial Nominee Program admissions increased to over one-quarter of all economic class immigrants, the highest since early 2021. The overall trend of most new Permanent Residents being former Temporary Residents continued.
The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent influx of Ukrainians under the temporary and refugee streams is not yet captured but no visitor visas were issued in Russia (pre-pandemic 2019, an average of 804 per month, post-pandemic 2021, an average of 206 per month).
No major changes in temporary workers (IMP and TFWP) but the changes announced Workforce Solutions Road Map – changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program to address labour shortages) will likely result in further increases becoming apparent in the next few months.
The citizenship program is operating at higher levels than previously and thus slow progress in reducing the backlog (in the absence of IRCC publishing citizenship application data, unlike permanent resident and study permit application data, hard to make a definitive assessment).
The further relaxation of travel and other COVID-related restrictions continues to result in visitor visas reverting to pre-pandemic levels.
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - October 2023.pdfAndrew Griffith
Highlights:
Percentage of former temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency partially bouncing back after September (from 32 to 39 percent, 2023 January to August average 65 percent). Year to date: 404,000 of which 212,000 are former temporary residents.
Temporary residents (IMP): Year to date 757,000 compared to 484,000 in comparable 2022 period
Temporary residents (TFWP): Year to date 172,000 compared to 124,000 in comparable 2022 period
Asylum claimants continue to grow significantly, reflecting easing of visa requirements and other factors: Year to date 117,000 compared to 70,000 in comparable 2022 period. Unclear whether visa exemption for Mexico will remain tenable given sharp increase and rumblings in US border states regarding increasing arrivals from Canada: Year to date 22,000 compared to 12,000 in comparable 2022 period.
The number of new citizens remains strong, largely driven by virtual ceremonies being the default option (almost 90 percent of new citizens participated in virtual ceremonies). Year to date: 317,000 largely the same as the comparable 2022 period.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - June 2022Andrew Griffith
June numbers reflect a gradual but uneven opening across the suite of immigration-related programs compared to April and May.
The number of TR2PR transitions increased slightly compared to May but remained significantly below the latter half of 2021, again suggesting a decreased “inventory” and/or a conscious government decision to redress the balance and address backlogs.
While TRs/TFWP remained largely stable compared to May, the number of TRs/IMP climbed dramatically for Canadian Interests and the frustrating unclear categories of “other IMP participants” and “not stated.”
International students, applications and permits, continue to reflect normal seasonal patterns.
While last month, I thought that citizenship looked on track to continue whittling away at the backlog of close 400,000 (as if July 4), this appears unlikely at IRCC has been averaging about 30,000 per month in 2022.
The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel remains significant, but has declined to only about one-third of all visitor visas in June compared to one-half in April and May, while overall numbers have declined somewhat and remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - March 2022Andrew Griffith
March 2022 marks two-years since the COVID measures and lockdowns began. As a result, the two-year comparisons become more striking.
The government’s not wishing the “crisis to go to waste” by increasing immigration levels by about one-third compared to pre-pandemic 2019 continues, with just over 40,000 admissions in March, across all categories. However, there is a declining trend of temporary residents transitioning to permanent residents, suggesting an “inventory” decline.
The planting season can be seen in the increase of Temporary Foreign Workers in the agriculture sector, both in terms of the regular seasonal patterns as well as the COVID disruption in March 2020.
The citizenship program continues to increase the number of new citizens and thus starting to reduce backlogs or at least move to restoring normal processing times.
The introduction of streams for Ukrainians fleeing the Russian invasion is seen in the dramatic jump in visas issued to Ukrainians, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel, from a pre-pandemic average of 648 per month in 2019 to 21,465 March 2022.
Similar to Covid 19 Immigration Effects - December 2021 Update with 2018 baseline comparison (20)
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - February 2024.pdfAndrew Griffith
Overall monthly decreases in most programs.
The percentage of temporary residents fell to a more normal 57 percent (average for 2023 was 50 percent).
Asylum claimants increased slightly and since September 2023 are averaging about 16,000 per month. Impact of Mexican visa requirement should be seen in next months data although visitor visa data now showing visas issued to Mexicans (only 7 in February).
March web data shows no increase in study permit interests from February while applications increased slightly. Permits decreased however and expect next few months will show full impact of caps.
Citizenship program continues to naturalize an average of 35,000 persons since May 2023, between 80-90 percent in virtual ceremonies.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change
Canadian Immigration Tracker - January 2024.pdfAndrew Griffith
Overall normal post December increase across programs with the exception of asylum claimants and students.
The percentage of former temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency was the highest to date, 78 percent of all Permanent Residents.
Asylum claimants continue at about 15,000 per month.
The impact of the cap on international students is not yet apparent in the February website data (possible leading indicator). February operational data on applications and permits issued will likely indicate impact.
Full 2023 settlement services now included, showing 53 percent increase compared to 2022.
Full 2023 citizenship application data now included, showing 20 percent increase compared to 2022, with the January number of new citizens increasing by a comparable on a year-over-year basis.
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - December 2023Andrew Griffith
Regular monthly update on immigration programs and citizenship, highlighting one and two year and 5 year changes, capturing pre- and post-pandemic periods.
No major change but noteworthy that over 50 percent of Permanent Residents transitioned from temporary status. Slight uptick in irregular arrivals.
Expect to see impact of cap on international students with February data.
This is an updated version of my earlier deck with 2022 numbers across immigration, citizenship, settlement and multiculturalism, OECD integration indicators and polling data.
The narrative has also been updated to reflect the ongoing shift to two-step immigration, and arguably a shift from an immigration-based country to a migration-based country.
For the last ten years, I have been tracking the diversity of Order of Canada appointments, from the perspective of gender, visible minorities and Indigenous peoples, along with regional and occupational backgrounds.
In many ways, these appointments are emblematic of other recognition and award programs in that they generally reflect the views and perspectives of those nominating and, in the case of the Order, a medium and longer-term track record and contribution in contrast to awards programs focussed on new and emerging talent.
In many ways, this results in an understandable backward looking perspective. Moreover, unlike employment equity programs where managers are empowered to factor diversity in hiring and promotion decisions, awards programs have less latitude to do so as they have to make their assessments based upon the nominations received.
The Governor General's Office has over the years made several attempts to encourage more diverse nominations, including funding under the Conservative Government in 2015 to encourage more nominations for more business and regional nominees. The data suggests that these efforts had limited effect in the longer term.
The most striking findings of this analysis are that women appointees average around one third of the total, ranging from a low of 29 percent (2019, 2022) to a high of 46 percent in 2015 and visible minority appointees have increased from a low of 4 percent in 2014 to an exceptional high of 13 percent in 2021 before reverting to a more typical 7 percent. The two groups that are over-represented in comparison of their share of the population are men and, more recently, Indigenous peoples in 2021 and 2022 at eight percent.
Of note, while visible minority appointments are 71 percent men, Indigenous peoples appointments are equally balanced between men and women.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - July 2022Andrew Griffith
A few changes to the standard deck of note. Monthly update delayed slightly given citizenship data delays.
I have removed the separate slide on Provincial Nominee Program admissions given that the admissions chart separates the economic class by federal and Provincial Nominee Program (can send those interested the data tables).
Given the large numbers of temporary residents, I have added charts (slides 27 and 30) comparing the changes by province for both IMP and TFWP, year-over-year, 2022 compared to 2020, and 2021 compared to 2018. With respect to the 2021 compared to 2018, the most notable increases have been in Atlantic Canada and Ontario for IMP, and Quebec and Atlantic Canada for TFWP.
These numbers are in the context of remaining high levels of processing backlogs for the vast majority of IRCC programs although some progress is being made.
July Permanent Residents admissions continue at over 40,000 per month with the greatest year-over-year increases for Provincial Nominee Program and refugees.
TR2PR transitions declined slightly compared to June, roughly accounting for 40 percent of all admissions (some double counting).
The greatest increase since 2020 for TRs/IMP continues to be with respect to Canadian Interests for for TRs/TFWP with respect to permits requiring a LMIA.
While International student permits have largely returned to seasonal patterns, the number of applications has increased the most compared to 2020.
The number of new citizens slightly declined to less than 30,000.
The number of visitor visas declined with once again, Ukrainians forming one-third of visas issued.
Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - April 2022.pdfAndrew Griffith
April 2022 is the two-year first full month comparison. As a result, the changes are particularly dramatic given the full impact of travel restrictions such as the shut-down of citizenship, the virtual shutdown of visas and the impact on permanent resident arrivals and Temporary Foreign Workers.
The number of Permanent Residents admissions declined slightly in April, as did the number of TR2PR transitions, the latter continuing a trend since December 2021, suggesting that the “transition pool” may be drying up.
Temporary foreign workers, both IMP and the TFWP also increased, the former returning to pre-pandemic levels, the latter showing both the seasonal increase in agriculture workers as well an increase compared to pre-pandemic levels for workers with a LMIA, suggesting an impact of labour shortages.
The number of students continues to increase, well beyond pre-pandemic levels. Students from India comprise more than 40 percent of all study permits. This reflects in part that many of these students, particularly at private colleges, using study as an immigration pathway. Unfortunately, IRCC data for post-secondary studies is not broken down by type of institution.
While citizenship dipped in April compared to March, it is too soon to tell whether this is a blip or a sign of operational difficulties.
The number of Ukrainians arriving in Canada, mainly under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel continued to increase, more than tripling from March to almost 68,000.
Order of Canada Appointments 2013-21 - How Diverse Are They? Andrew Griffith
This deck analyses the close to 1,700 appointments made over the past 9 years, looking at representation of women, visible minorities and Indigenous peoples, broken down by level, province and background. Given that most appointments reflect a long-term contribution, there is a gap between the population and visible minority appointments.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
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United Nations World Oceans Day 2024; June 8th " Awaken new dephts".Christina Parmionova
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Food safety, prepare for the unexpected - So what can be done in order to be ready to address food safety, food Consumers, food producers and manufacturers, food transporters, food businesses, food retailers can ...
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Covid 19 Immigration Effects - December 2021 Update with 2018 baseline comparison
1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects
2018 to December 2021
Working Draft - Key Slides
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Economic Family Refugees Other
2. Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic, Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
3. December 2021 Highlights
• 2021 Full-year numbers highlight government focus on meeting 2021 target of 401,000 (exceeded) along with the recovery of most programs from COVID restrictions,
with the exceptions of the Provincial Nominee Program, asylum claimants, citizenship and visitor visas
• PRs: Admissions high level from 47,340 in November to 43,825 in December. December Year-over-year change (change from 2019 in parentheses): Economic 585.8%
(106.7%), Family 87.2% (39.9%%), Refugees 296.0% (309.3%)
• Applications: Increase from 6,281 in November to 8,537 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): -64.5% (-73.2%).
• Express Entry Invitations to Apply: From 1,778 in December to 1,428 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2019): -85.2% (-79.0%)
• Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 344,799 in December (outside Canada) to 466,770 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2019): 10.4% (-21.5%)
• Provincial Nominee Program: Increase from 4,300 in November to 4,980 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 237.6% (50.2%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline (seasonal) from 37,295 in November to 28,145 in December (some double counting). December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 932.8% (408.0%%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Decline from 23,115 in November to 21,055 in December. December year-over-year (two year change): Agreements -34.4% (-17.7%), Canadian Interests: -60.4% (-33.9%), Other IMP Participants 857.9% (2,933.3%), Not stated 268.4% (53.0%)
• TRs/TFWP: Stable from 4,345 in November to 4,205 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): Caregivers -46.3% (-27.5%), Agriculture -43.0% (-29.4%) and Other LMIA -30.6% (-5.0%).
• Web “Get a work permit”: Increase from 67,912 in December (outside Canada) to 95,655 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2019): 50.0% (-4.3%)
• Students: More than doubling from 20,955 in November to 54,440 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 119.7% (9.1%)
• Applications: Increase from 48,135 in November to 51,898 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 40.5% (39.2%%)
• Web “Get a study permit”: Increase from 58,607 in December (outside Canada) to 69,620 in January. January Year-over-year change (change from 2019): 12.0% (17.4%)
• Asylum Claimants: Increase from 3,975 in November (majority at border now) to 6,350 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 412.1% (4.7%)
• Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) increased from 845 in November to 2,811 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 7,708.3% (70.1%)
• Settlement Services (December 2020 - awaiting more recent): Decline from 48,700 in November to 42,890 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2019): 21.6%
(-17.1%)
• Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Increase from 8,109 in December (outside Canada) to 9,616 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2019): -13.2% (-60.0%). In Canada: 7.0% (0.8%)
• Citizenship: Seasonal decline from 25,495 in November to 21,182 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 755.5% (25.6%)
• Applications (awaiting more recent): From 19,005 in May to 18,189 in June. June year-over-year change (change from 2019): 21.6% (-11.7%)
• “Apply for citizenship”: Increase from 18,030 in December (outside Canada) to 22,064 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2019): -21.7% (-28.1%). In Canada: -5.5% (54.3%)
• Visitor Visas: Seasonal decline from 48,668 in November to 42,373 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2019): 709.1% (-22.3%)
3
4. Overall Decline Across all Programs
2021 Compared to 2018 Baseline
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions - PNP
PR Admissions - Fed
Asylum Claimants
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship App. (Jan-June)
New Citizens
Settlement Services (2020/19)
Visitor Visas
-100% -57.5% -15% 27.5% 70%
-82.1%
-14.1%
-37.6%
-20.6%
27.3%
64.2%
24.1%
34.8%
-44.9%
35.4%
-14.3%
-43.1%
12. Admissions: PRs Canada Total
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
Economic Family Refugees
25.2%
-5.8%
35.3%
309.3%
39.9%
106.7%
296%
87.2%
585.8%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
12
13. Admissions: PNP Provinces
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-100%
25%
150%
275%
400%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
54.2%
-5.2%
-29.9%
8.6%
43.7%
33.3%
-32.8%
49%
24.6%
59.7%
64%
85.3%
107.5%
155.4%
297.3%
328%
356.1%
348.4%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
13
14. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
100%
300%
500%
700%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
15.5%
-6.2%
105.2%
-12.2%
9.1%
42.2%
-53.7%
4.2%
-48.8%
82.2%
49.3%
125.5%
148.9%
24.3%
78%
96.6%
67.9%
43.4%
50%
177.2%
221.2%
231.3%
387.2%
132.5%
279%
231.4%
54.9%
228.2%
244.7%
637.7%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
14
16. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-155%
384%
923%
1,461%
2,000%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
204.9%
64.8%
24.6%
236.2%
313.3%
67.5%
205%
296.9%
194.1%
154.5%
267.2%
627.9%
283.5%
431.5% 453%
560.4%
600%
634.4%
1,587.3%
736.1%
1,956.5%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021-18
16
17. Admissions: TRs to PRs
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
0%
275%
550%
825%
1,100%
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
136.5%
106.5%
260%
204.5% 202.6%
224.1%
568.6%
406.7%
807.7%
552.8%
1,076.6%
961.8%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
17
18. Asylum Claimants: Of
fi
ce Type 2018-21
1,750
3,500
5,250
7,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Airport Border Inland
18
19. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-400%
0%
400%
800%
1,200%
1,600%
Airport Border Inland
-54.7%
-56.2%
-50.1% -40.4%
74.2%
27.3%
136.7%
921.2%
1,407.7%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
19
20. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-450%
0%
450%
900%
1,350%
1,800%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-78.4%
37.1%
-8.7%
-67.9%
-62.1%
-23.6%
-93.6%
-23.1%
-5.3%
-67% -38.2%
124.3%
145.7%
-68.8%
-30.8%
91.5%
-38.7%
0%
18.2%
-77.1%
950%
1,409.1%
1,620%
-9.1%
650%
400%
850%
240.9%
403.2%
40.7%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021-18
20
21. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10 2022-1
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
21
22. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-90%
-67.5%
-45%
-22.5%
0%
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil
-84.6%
-28.4%
16.2%
12.5%
-5%
-29.5%
-49.7%
-36.2%
-22.5%
-16.6%
-6.4%
0.7%
77.9%
-11.6%
31.2%
-9.2%
-40.7%
-33.3%
-16.7%
17%
January 2022/21 January 2022/20
22
25. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
25
26. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
26
27. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total
Year to Year Comparison (Monthly)
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
IMP TFWP
27
28. Temporary Residents by Program Canada
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
58.8%
13.6%
-26%
27.7%
-17.7%
-5%
-29.4%
-27.5%
-33.9%
-17.7%
-30.6%
-43%
-46.3%
-60.4%
-34.4%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
28
29. IMP by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
-25.8%
-13%
-27%
0%
-62.9%
-9.5%
-43%
21.4%
-36.2%
-44.9%
2.2%
-13.8%
-42.9%
36.4%
25.8%
25%
-68.8%
0%
-7.7%
-69.8%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19
29
30. TFWP by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
72.7%
-24%
22.2%
-25%
-52.8%
-46.7%
11.2%
11.2%
-83.3%
-27.9%
-40.6%
-42.4%
-21.4%
100%
-63.2%
-57.9%
-23.2%
-29.5%
-79.5%
-26.3%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19
30
32. Work Permits—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia
23.2%
25.9%
38.1%
-4.6%
42.6%
-48.2%
-29.1%
28.4%
-26.1%
-0.8%
67%
72.2%
30.4%
14.9%
96.7%
63.6%
-2.3%
96.7%
13.1%
38.1%
January 2022/21 January 2022/20
32
34. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-21
17,500
35,000
52,500
70,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
34
35. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-21
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
2018-1 2018-5 2018-9 2019-1 2019-5 2019-9 2020-1 2020-5 2020-9 2021-1 2021-5 2021-9
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
35
36. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
36
37. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
161.5%
62.5%
148.6%
47.7%
45.1%
1.8%
167.8%
-12%
61.1%
-28.8%
139.8%
-22.8%
53.3%
47%
164.2%
38.3%
-10.1%
23.3%
101.6%
210.8%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19
37
38. Study Permit Holders by Province
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-90%
-17.5%
55%
127.5%
200%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
16.1%
28.6%
13.0%
6.4%
27.3%
45.7%
18.5% 14.7%
17.6%
-3.4%
-5.5%
-2.1%
59.9%
62.9%
97.7%
105.2%
117.7%
74.4%
184.2%
19.6%
162.9%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
38
40. Study Permits—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
2.4%
-95.9%
-4.3%
54.6%
115.3%
-4.2%
56.1%
-28.8%
-13%
42.6%
22.8%
323.1%
-18.5%
23.7%
46.4%
-17.9%
19.6%
-12.1%
-21.2%
6.8%
January 2022/21 January 2022/20
40
42. Settlement—By Service—2018-20
In Canada Services—Top 25 Countries
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10
Community Connections Employment Related Services Information and Orientation Services Language Assessment
Language Training Needs & Assets Assessment and Referrals Resettlement Assistance Program Service Delivery Improvement
42
43. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Service—December 2020, Last Quarter
Community
Employment
Information/Orientation
Language Assessment
Language Training
Needs Assessment, Referrals
Resettlement Assistance
-100% -72.5% -45% -17.5% 10%
-88.2%
-30.5%
-13.3%
-71.1%
1.5%
-24.3%
-23.3%
-48.4%
-29.3%
-9.8%
-68.2%
-9.1%
-36.2%
-40.3%
December 2020 July-September
43
44. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Province—December 2020, Last Quarter
-50%
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-18.4%
-23.2%
-24.8%
-26.5%
-7.4%
-28.4%
-45.8%
-19.7%
-13.4%
-24.1%
-35.8%
-15.9%
-28.9%
-21.8%
December 2020 July-September
44
45. Settlement Services by Citizenship
Year-over-year Comparison—December 2020, Last Quarter
Top 10, 2018 base year
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Syria Eritrea Congo Somalia Afghanistan India Pakistan Korea Mexico Philippines
-14.3%
-15.4%
-29.3%
-16.6%
-15.6%
-15.9%
-28.1%
-24.5%
-17.4%
-23.5%
-38.3%
-26.1%
-17.3%
-18.8%
-2.2%
0.9%
-32.5%
-36.4%
-23.3%
-20.2%
December 2020 July-September
45
47. Settlement Services—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-90%
-67.5%
-45%
-22.5%
0%
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines
-17.2%
85.2%
-41.3%
9.4%
-47.3%
-3.2%
-23.6%
-31.9%
-32.4%
-14.9%
-37.1%
87.4%
-35.3%
62.5%
-68.5%
39.8%
-13.9%
-16.9%
-8.3%
-20.4%
January 2022/21 January 2022/20
47
50. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-21
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
50
51. Citizenship by Region of Birth
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19, Full year 2021/18
-350%
0%
350%
700%
1,050%
1,400%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
-30.2%
-46.5%
-55.8%
-22.8%
-27.3%
-42.4%
-49.8%
-52.4%
4.9%
-9.8%
69.3%
-23.6%
29.3%
44%
71.2%
1.9%
-19.7%
-2.7%
33.1%
24.7%
562.9%
630.8%
513.7%
503.8%
1,134.2%
1,214.1%
581.9%
850%
921.3%
953.9%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19 Full year 2021/18
51
52. Citizenship—Web Interest
Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1
Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured
52
53. Citizenship—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-50%
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
12.5%
25%
37.5%
50%
USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh
16.4%
-38.6%
-23.2%
-24.6%
-27.8%
-41.7%
0.7%
-37%
-26.7%
-14%
-42%
-15.7%
-22.4%
36.5%
-32.7%
-28.9%
3.2%
-39.8%
-5.7%
-40.7%
January 2022/21 January 2022/20
53
55. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-21
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4 2021-7 2021-10
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
55
56. Visitor Visas—By Source Country
December Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-500%
375%
1,250%
2,125%
3,000%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-32.4%
27.7%
-50.3%
-8%
-24.7%
-47.1%
144.1%
-23.8%
-2.4%
-68.7%
141.6%
766.9%
419%
1,329.4%
2,419.2%
718.2%
1,113.9%
805.2%
964.2%
445.2%
December 2021/20 December 2021/19
56
57. Research Questions
57
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
59. Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
59
60. Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
60
61. Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of
Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration
Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category,
Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent
Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking),
Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year
in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit holders by
province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for
New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
• 2018 is used as baseline
61