Updated data across all immigration programs. Given the travel restrictions and shutdowns in April 2021, the monthly percentage increases are exceedingly high, with comparisons to April 2019 more meaningful.
Permanent Residents admissions declined slightly in April, with the annualized rate of 275,000, making it increasingly likely that IRCC will have difficulty in meeting its target of 400,000 despite the various initiatives to meet the target (lower express entry thresholds, special temporary program, focus on temporary residents transitioning to permanent residency, Hong Kong programs).
Of note is the significant increase in the number of new citizens compared to earlier months in 2021, but still far below 2019.
Finance strategies for adaptation. Presentation for CANCC
Covid 19 immigration effects April 2021
1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects
2018 to April 2021
Working Draft - Key Slides
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Economic Family Refugees
2. Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic, Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
3. April 2021 Highlights
• Given travel restrictions and initial shutdown, large gap between April 2021 and April 2020. Two year comparison (April 2019) more signi
fi
cant.
• April immigration continued to come back closer to traditional levels, re
fl
ecting government decision to use inventory of temporary residents to transition to permanent
residency: First four months 91,530 permanent resident admissions, annualized would be about 275,000 (but likely to be higher)
• PRs: Admissions decreased slightly from 22,410 in March to 21,105 in April. April Year-over-year change (change from 2019 in parentheses): Economic 280.8% (-18.2%),
Family 544.2% (-38.5%), Refugees 1,800% (-18.8%)
• Applications: Increase from 24,195 in March to 26,048 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 31.7% (-21.7%)
• Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 362,518 in April (outside Canada) to 440,452 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2019): 20.4% (13.9%)
• Provincial Nominee Program: Increase from 2,645 in March to 2,880 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 122.4% (-36.5%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decrease from 12,625 in March (some double counting) to 11,520 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 351.8% (49.0%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Sharp decline from 31,115 in March to 19,815 in April. April year-over-year (two year change): Agreements 121.9% (-34.2%), Canadian Interests: -16.7% (19.7%). Other IMP Participants (largely open work permits granted to Hong Kong residents who hold
HSAR or BNO passports) 9,237.5%
• TRs/TFWP: Increase from 14,545 in March to 17,140 in April. April year-over-year increase (two year change): Caregivers 246.4% (-18.5%), Agriculture 3.9% (0.7%) and Other LMIA 168% (29.5%).
• Web “Get a work permit”: From 54,203 in April (outside Canada) to 60,050 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2019): -2.9% (-26.2%)
• Students: Increase from 22,790 in March to 31,200 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 63.9% (-2.6%)
• Applications: Slight increase from 44,073 in March to 45,683 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 1,104.4% (37.8%)
• Web “Get a study permit”: From 92,843 in April (outside Canada) to 122,865 in May Year-over-year change (change rom 2019): 88.1% (47.5%)
• Asylum Claimants: Decrease from 1,280 in March (about 75% inland) to 1,110 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): -29.3% (-74.3%)
• Settlement Services (December): Decline from 48,700 in November to 42,890 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2019): 21.6% (-17.1%)
• Web “Find immigrant services hear you”: From 8,608 in April (outside Canada) to 9,524 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2019): -3.5% (7.2%)
• Citizenship: Almost tripling from 2,561 in March to 6,825 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): no number given April 2020 shutdown (-63.9%)
• Applications: From 16,783 in February to 6,069 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2019): -70.4% (-76.1%)
• “Apply for citizenship”: From 19,161 in April (outside Canada) to 21,717 in May. May year-over-year change (change from 2019): -23.6% (95.0%)
• Visitor Visas: Decrease from 4,431 in March to 4,199 in April. April year-over-year change (change from 2019): 164.1% (-96.4%)
3
4. Overall Decline Across all Programs
April-December 2019-20 Comparison
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions
Asylum Claimants
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications
New Citizens
Settlement Services
Visitor Visas
-120% -90% -60% -30% 0%
-95.7%
-21.4%
-74.7%
-30.1%
-34.5%
-59.1%
-12.6%
-3.8%
-77.6%
-58.1%
-59.9%
11. Admissions: PRs Canada Total
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-450%
0%
450%
900%
1,350%
1,800%
Economic Family Refugees
23%
-28.8%
19.6%
-18.8%
-38.5%
-18.2%
1,800%
544.2%
280.8%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19 Q1
11
12. Admissions: PNP Provinces
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-100%
75%
250%
425%
600%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
-31.7%
-29.7%
-51.3%
-53.3%
-45.2%
-49.6% -45.9%
-27.8%
-44.1%
-14.3%
-47.8%
-61.8%
522.2%
40.5%
100%
228.6%
42.4%
160%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19 2020
12
13. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
150%
400%
650%
900%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
-38.5%
-62.6%
-7.5%
-42.6%
-40%
-49.6%
-52.2%
-44.7%
-60.3%
-49.7%
11.9%
-53.1%
131.3%
-39%
-13.9%
8.9%
-71.7%
-29.1%
-69%
-18.3%
370%
411.1%
761.1%
170.3%
369.7%
816.7%
680%
312.4%
110.1%
520.6%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19 2020
13
19. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-100%
-60%
-20%
20%
60%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-85%
-54.5%
-53.8%
-74.2%
-90.9%
-71.4%
-93%
-66.7%
-71.4%
-77.3%
50%
-28.6%
0%
14.3%
-75%
60%
25%
-63.8%
-31.3%
-47.6%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19
19
20. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
20
21. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
May Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil
-54.9%
23.3%
24.2%
-55.4%
-1.6%
-5.5%
-4%
11.3%
-0.4%
24.5%
-4.1%
12.9%
-23.7%
41%
53.2%
4.4%
-28.9%
17.3%
-36.6%
66.7%
May 2021/20 May 2021/19
21
24. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
24
25. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
25
26. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total
Year to Year Comparison (Monthly)
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
2019-1 2019-3 2019-5 2019-7 2019-9 2019-11 2020-1 2020-3 2020-5 2020-7 2020-9 2020-11 2021-1 2021-3
IMP TFWP
26
27. Temporary Residents by Program Canada
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
-12.7%
-6.1%
-49%
-7.9%
-31.1%
29.5%
-0.7%
-18.5%
-19.7%
-34.2%
168%
3.9%
246.4%
-16.7%
121.9%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19 2020
27
28. IMP by Citizenship
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-175%
0%
175%
350%
525%
700%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
-84%
-30.4%
-54.8%
-72.6%
-80.8%
-60.6%
19.7%
-54.6%
-53.5%
30.8%
113.3%
-32%
17.2%
155.6%
92.3%
116.1%
28.3%
140.2%
671.4%
-15.1%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19
28
29. TFWP by Citizenship
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-150%
187.5%
525%
862.5%
1,200%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
33.3%
-28.8%
22.2%
-63.6%
-13.9%
2.8%
22.6%
39%
-14%
2.2%
600%
270%
633.3%
1,100%
47.6%
73.6%
171.3%
52%
-10.4%
4.8%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19
29
31. Work Permits—Web Interest
May Comparison—2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia
-5.2%
-24.7%
30.3%
-11.5%
-19.3%
-64.9%
-36.4%
0.8%
-41%
-25.9%
-10.6%
5.4%
30.6%
5.7%
17.2%
-27.8%
-19.5%
-11.4%
-34.7%
27.9%
May 2021/20 May 2021/19
31
33. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-21
17,500
35,000
52,500
70,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
33
34. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-21
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
34
35. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
35
36. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
29.7%
15.6%
20.7%
33.6%
-55.3%
-20.4%
21.1%
-42.9%
-48%
8%
34.6%
766.7%
360.5%
24.8%
-39.3%
-29.9%
43.8%
-12.4%
-29.2%
172.5%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19
36
37. Study Permit Holders by Province
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
-90%
-42.5%
5%
52.5%
100%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-28.2%
-34.4%
-41.8%
-26.5%
-36.5%
-21.5%
-46.8%
-11.7%
7.4%
-11.7%
-2.6%
-1.4%
16.5%
-15.8%
39.5%
42.4%
100.0%
55.5%
89.8%
28.0%
58.8%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19 2020
37
39. Study Permits—Web Interest
May Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-150%
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
33.5%
-90.7%
92.1%
158.3%
168.4%
14.9%
81.9%
-45.5%
33.7%
96.6%
58.9%
-81.6%
99.5%
239.8%
236.4%
81.8%
88.7%
9.4%
31.3%
149.5%
May 2021/20 May 2021/19
39
41. Settlement—By Service—2018-20
In Canada Services—Top 25 Countries
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10
Community Connections Employment Related Services Information and Orientation Services Language Assessment
Language Training Needs & Assets Assessment and Referrals Resettlement Assistance Program Service Delivery Improvement
41
42. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Service—December 2020, Last Quarter
Community
Employment
Information/Orientation
Language Assessment
Language Training
Needs Assessment, Referrals
Resettlement Assistance
-100% -72.5% -45% -17.5% 10%
-88.2%
-30.5%
-13.3%
-71.1%
1.5%
-24.3%
-23.3%
-48.4%
-29.3%
-9.8%
-68.2%
-9.1%
-36.2%
-40.3%
December 2020 July-September
42
43. Settlement Services
Year-over-year Comparison by Province—December 2020, Last Quarter
-50%
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-18.4%
-23.2%
-24.8%
-26.5%
-7.4%
-28.4%
-45.8%
-19.7%
-13.4%
-24.1%
-35.8%
-15.9%
-28.9%
-21.8%
December 2020 July-September
43
44. Settlement Services by Citizenship
Year-over-year Comparison—December 2020, Last Quarter
Top 10, 2018 base year
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Syria Eritrea Congo Somalia Afghanistan India Pakistan Korea Mexico Philippines
-14.3%
-15.4%
-29.3%
-16.6%
-15.6%
-15.9%
-28.1%
-24.5%
-17.4%
-23.5%
-38.3%
-26.1%
-17.3%
-18.8%
-2.2%
0.9%
-32.5%
-36.4%
-23.3%
-20.2%
December 2020 July-September
44
46. Settlement Services—Web Interest
May Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines
49.3%
195.2%
12.7%
37.4%
-4.8%
51.5%
2%
36.7%
-26.1%
21.5% 17.5%
167.1%
-14.5%
-9.3%
-11.9%
39.2%
-22%
-10.6%
-20.5%
24%
May 2021/20 May 2021/19
46
49. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-21
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
49
50. Citizenship by Region of Birth
April Comparison: 2021/19 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
2021/20 Comparison not calculable given complete shutdown April 2020
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
-66.2%
-67.8%
-63.4%
-64.3%
-63.8%
-70.2%
-74.1%
-74.8%
-59%
-56.7%
April 2021/20 April 2021/19
50
51. Citizenship—Web Interest
Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured
51
52. Citizenship—Web Interest
May Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh
255.5%
118%
88.1%
60.5%
68.3%
103.6%
157.1%
57.3%
150.4%
62.6%
-22.2%
48.3%
-23.8%
1.4%
13.7%
-1.1%
39.3%
-50.8%
24.6%
-51.5%
May 2021/20 May 2021/19
52
54. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-21
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-7 2018-10 2019-1 2019-4 2019-7 2019-10 2020-1 2020-4 2020-7 2020-10 2021-1 2021-4
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
54
55. Visitor Visas—By Source Country
April Comparison: 2021/20, 2021/19
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-1,000%
0%
1,000%
2,000%
3,000%
4,000%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-91.1%
-90.9%
-98.2%
-98.2%
-99%
-97.7%
-86.7%
-94.3%
-97.7%
-98.2%
1,022.2%
680%
-87.8%
-87.8%
18.5%
1,850%
3,158.3%
214.9%
833.3%
562.7%
April 2021/20 April 2021/20
55
56. Research Questions
56
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
58. Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
58
59. Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
59
60. Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions
of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and
Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and
Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada –
Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship
(2019 ranking), Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which
permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination,
program and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and
year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in
which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit
holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications
Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
60