Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - December 2023

Canadian Immigration Tracker
2018 to December 2023
Working Draft - Key Slides
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other

Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2

December 2023 Highlights
• PRs: Admissions Increase from 29,420 in November to 37,170 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021 in parentheses):
Economic - PNP 106.5% (80.1%), Economic - Federal 30.2% (-47.1%), Family 23.8% (-18.8%), Refugees 92.1% (4.7%)
• Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. Decrease from 47,246 in May (time delays greater) to 37,874 in June. June year-over-year change (change from 2020): 69.7% (-27.1%).
• Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decrease from 16,222 in December (1,187 Arrima) to 4,287 in January (1,007 Arrima). January year-over-year change (change from 2020): -61.0% (89.5%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Increase from 10,520 in November to 21,360 in December (55 percent of all PRs). December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 310.4% (-24.1%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Decrease from 64,125 in November to 52,915 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2021): Agreements: -29.8% (-29.1%), Canadian Interests: -13.0% (68.2%), Other IMP Participants 73.6% (1,536.8%),
Not stated 26.7% (199.5%%)
• TRs/TFWP: Decrease from 10,985 in November to 8,670 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): Caregivers 30.0% (-10.3%), Agriculture -0.9% (31.7%) and Other LMIA 10.7% (154.9%).
• Students: Increase from 29,395 in November to 109,310 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): 13.5% (100.8%)
• Applications: Increase from 17,324 in November to 50,750 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): 254.2% (-2.2%)
• Asylum Claimants: Slight decline from 16,335 in November to 15,690 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): 37.8%
(147.1%)
• Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc): Remain low level, from 65 in November to 226 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): -95.2% (-92.0%).
• Settlement Services (2022): Decrease from 251,625 in November to 211,560 in December (most recent data). December year-over-year (change
from 2020): 37.0% (47.9%)
• Citizenship: Decline (seasonal) from 35,486 in November to 24,579 in December (monthly average 31,424). December year-over-year change
(change from 2021): 9.6% (10.8%)
• Applications (2022): From 232,974 in 2021 to 264,231 in 2022. Year-over-year change (change from 2018): 13.4% (33.8%)
• Visitor Visas: Decrease from 157,006 in November to 121,775 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2021): -13.2%
(189.3%).
3

Change Across Major Programs
2023 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions-PNP
PR Admissions-Fed
TR2PR
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Asylum Claimants
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications (2022)
New Citizens
Settlement Services (2022)
Visitor Visas
-75% 18.75% 112.5% 206.25% 300%
38.1%
-16.9%
113.7%
1.7%
92.2%
132.8%
170.5%
123.8%
226.2%
165.4%
30.8%
69.6%
3.5%

Change Across Web Hits
2023 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline
5
Get a Study Permit
Get a Work Permit
Immigrate to Canada
Find immigrant Services
Apply for Citizenship
-45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
-36.3%
47.5%
-7.6%
55.5%
18.5%

Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-24
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades Healthcare
STEM Trades Transport Agriculture French
General QC Arrima 7

PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-23
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
8
Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by
applications from India (corrected from previous version)

Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-23
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
9

Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-23
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
10

Admissions: PRs Canada Total
December Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21, Full year 2023/18
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees
69.6%
27.5%
30.8%
69.6%
4.7%
-18.8%
-47.1%
80.1%
92.1%
23.8%
30.2%
106.5%
December 2023/22 December 2023/21 Full year 2023/18
11

Admissions: PNP Provinces
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
60.9%
48.9%
77.2%
56.4%
88%
82.9%
124.7%
-15.1%
-5.6%
5.1%
-18.9%
-21.9%
305.4%
243.3%
71.7%
72.5%
-9.8%
113.8%
12

Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
-30%
40%
110%
180%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
-21.3%
33.7%
128.9%
21.1%
-5.1%
101.3%
-29.9%
6.5%
-37.3%
67.8%
-24.5%
33.5%
-60.7%
-2.2%
-31.1%
-14.1%
-29.8%
-5.9%
5.3%
-28.4%
90.5%
112.8%
-73.6%
30.6%
38.5%
1.4%
-47.6%
44.2%
161.2%
113.9%
13

Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents
By Program—2018-23
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
14

Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs
-300%
0%
300%
600%
900%
1,200%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
154.4%
81.9%
110.8%
415.3%
197.7%
53.6%
296.6%
-4.1%
48%
83%
31.9%
-47.3%
-77.3%
23.3%
759.3%
808.8%
1,181.3%
969%
451.3%
-72.4%
377.9%
15

Admissions: TRs to PRs
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
122.8%
132.7%
176.6%
170.9%
-26.3%
3.6%
-40%
-18.9%
248%
245.4%
326.7%
324%
16

Two-Step Immigration
TR2PR Percent Total Admission
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Percent TR2PR Total Admissions
17

Asylum Claimants: Of
fi
ce Type 2018-23
4,500
9,000
13,500
18,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Airport Border Inland Other
19
Note: The “other claim of
fi
ce” surge in September-November likely re
fl
ected delays in classi
fi
cation, most of these were likely Inland

Asylum Claimants: Irregular Arrivals
RCMP Interceptions as Percent Total Asylum Claimants—2018-23
0
1,250
2,500
3,750
5,000
15%
30%
45%
60%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Percent Claimants Irregular Arrivals
20

Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
Airport Border Inland
184.9%
43.3%
491.9%
368.5%
-42.3%
346.9%
139.6%
-64.2%
114.7%
21

Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-61.2%
356.5%
255%
3%
165.8%
140.3%
4.6%
141.9%
666.5%
152.8%
-100%
-26.5%
9.3%
360%
137.8%
30%
705.3%
32%
105.1%
781.6%
-100%
-12.9%
-59.3%
109.1%
59.7%
-36.1%
565.2%
-24.4%
-20.6%
191.3%
22

IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-23
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers
Agriculture LMIA 24

Temporary Residents by Program Canada
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
338.8%
35.7%
-45.4%
162.1%
-46.4%
154.9%
31.7%
-10.3%
68.2%
-29.1%
10.7%
-0.9%
30%
-13%
-29.8%
25

IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-23
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
26

IMP by Citizenship
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
18%
58.1%
41.3%
-26.6%
-12.1%
24.4%
55.1%
51.1%
-27%
417.8%
71.7%
-3.2%
38.2%
-26.7%
151.3%
24.8%
95.3%
-7.2%
2.1%
122.4%
-8.1%
-11.3%
0.8%
-31.3%
15.3%
2.3%
-17%
-21.3%
-4.9%
-2.9%
27

IMP by Province
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
164.1%
198.8%
147.9%
236.1%
282.2%
161.9%
288.4%
131%
217.6%
170.3%
251.5%
149.7%
75.5%
122.9%
21.7%
9.1%
-2.3%
-10.6%
2.8%
8.5%
-2.2%
28

TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-23
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
29

TFWP by Citizenship
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
301.1%
253.1%
17.5%
-39.2%
21.5%
289.2%
153.7%
114.2%
15.5%
62.5%
100%
294.7%
0%
-25%
48%
247.5%
75.2%
3.9%
600%
62.2%
-22.4%
120.6%
-21.4%
-40%
-5.1%
11.9%
3.2%
-12.4%
300%
7.4%
30

TFWP by Province
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
89.7%
189.9%
148.1%
164.7%
59.1%
239.2%
160.5%
85.8%
220.9%
88.9%
385.7%
98.7%
104.4%
10.9%
-0.5%
37.1%
-15%
41.7%
16.7%
-1.9%
-15.3%
31

Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-23
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
33

Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-23
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
34

Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-23
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
35

Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
478%
21.9%
19.4%
111.1%
-1.2%
-10.4%
17.8%
-38.4%
-31.4%
160.6%
272.1%
-5.1%
-41.3%
1.7%
-25%
24.1%
-54.4%
-39.6%
-29.6%
175.6%
102.6%
2.8%
-12.9%
-1.6%
-5.4%
6.2%
-25.7%
-16.9%
18.3%
8.4%
36

Study Permit Holders by Province
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
54.2%
122.3%
107.9%
56.8%
106.7%
80.1%
91.2%
83.3%
183.1%
143.6%
69.4%
117.5%
53.6%
44.9%
14.7%
61.0%
33.4%
10.4%
8.7%
39.5%
-15.7%
37

Settlement—By Service—2018-22
Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services
68,750
137,500
206,250
275,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services
Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment
Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement
39

Settlement Services
Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation
Needs, Assets & Referrals
Employment Related
Information & Orientation
Community Connections
Language Assessment
Language Training
Resettlement Assistance
Service Delivery Improvement
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400%
18.8%
109.2%
-15.5%
8.9%
-1.7%
13%
18.9%
7.5%
18.8%
99.3%
374.9%
22.7%
224.9%
42.7%
41.7%
64.9%
66.8%
99.3%
11.3%
82.6%
22.9%
93.4%
32.6%
36.2%
76.9%
48.0%
11.3%
40

Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
41

Settlement Services by Citizenship
Top 10, 2018 base year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia
25.7%
429.3%
11.8%
4.8%
41.5%
-7.7%
-11.2%
19.7%
6.5%
-9.3%
22.9%
115.6%
10.3%
6.7%
14.7%
-1%
-13.7%
15.9%
11.3%
-0.3%
42

Settlement Services
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
36.6%
50.8%
39.2%
40.5%
41.4%
-0.9%
44.3%
28.1%
39.9%
30.8%
40.1%
32.7%
11.4%
40.6%
43

Citizenship Applications—2018-22
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Number: Red line is 3-month moving average
45

New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-23
Numbers
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
46

New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-23
Percentage
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
47

Citizenship by Country of Birth
-200%
-50%
100%
250%
400%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
115%
52.4%
7.5%
81.9%
224.5%
41.6%
28.6%
6.9%
302.4%
86.9%
34.3%
13.3%
-27.2%
-41.1%
115.4%
-13.9%
47.7%
-30%
74.6%
8.2%
103.6%
-20.8%
-31.9%
21.9%
-7.7%
-18.2%
28.8%
-26.3%
42.2%
4.3%
48

Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-23
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
50

Visitor Visas—By Source Country
-175%
0%
175%
350%
525%
700%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-8.9%
152.9%
163.3%
71.3%
46.1%
-37.3%
-1.5%
58%
76.7%
-52%
206.3%
42.1%
650.8%
191.9%
142%
222.6%
69.4%
74.7%
190.6%
280.1%
3.3%
-51.3%
214.7%
-44.6%
-50.6%
-75.8%
117.2%
-40%
-14.7%
73.6%
51
Note: The most dramatic change was the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel, which
was not among the top 10 in 2018, but has declined in on a year-over-year basis.

Research Questions
52
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?

Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
54

Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
55

Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of
Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration
Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category,
Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent
Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking),
Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year
in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit holders by
province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for
New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
• 2018 is used as baseline
56

Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - December 2023

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