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COVID-19 Immigration Effects
2018 to December 2022
Working Draft - Key Slides
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
December 2022 Highlights
• PRs: Admissions decrease from 25,925 in November to 23,340 in December. December Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP
-12.8% (195.3%), Economic - Federal -59.4% (275.2%), Family -34.4% (22.8%), Refugees -45.5% (118.2%)
• Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. From 17,937 in May (time delays greater) to 17,822 in June. June year-over-year change (change from 2020): -65.7% (-65.7%).
• Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From 2,077 in December (all Arrima) to 11,000 in January (no Arrima). January year-over-year change (change from 2020): 386.3% (9.0%)
• Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 430,087 in December (seasonal) (outside Canada) to 493,737 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 5.8% (16.8%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Increase from 3,890 in November (some double counting) to 5,205 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -81.5% (91.0%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Decline (seasonal) from 53,545 in November to 47,910 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 1.0% (-33.7%), Canadian Interests: 93.3% (-23.5%), Other IMP Participants 842.9% (8,931.6%), Not stated 136.4%
(771.1%)
• TRs/TFWP: Decline (seasonal) from 9,600 in November to 8,030 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers -31.0% (-63.0%), Agriculture 32.9% (-24.2%) and Other LMIA 130.2% (59.7%).
• Web “Get a work permit”: Increase from 106,622 in December (outside Canada) to 134,406 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 36.5% (110.7%)
• Students: End of year increase from 23,335 in November to 96,270 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 76.8% (288.6%)
• Applications: Decrease (seasonal) from 78,353 in November to 14,327 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -72.4% (-61.2%)
• Web “Get a study permit”: Increase from 57,395 in December (outside Canada) to 70,830 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 1.7% (13.9%)
• Asylum Claimants: Increase from 9,795 in November (half at border) to 11,385 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 79.3% (818.1%)
• Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Increase from 3,791 in November to 4,745 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 68.8% (13,080.6%). Dramatic increase in numbers at “Other of
fi
ces”
• Settlement Services: Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July (most recent data). July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%)
• Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Increase from 4,802 in December. (outside Canada) to 5,802 in January (decline in Canada). January year-over-year change (change from 2021): -39.7% (-48.1%). In Canada: -40.3% (-42.4%)
• Citizenship: Decrease (seasonal) from 35,598 in November to 22,426 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 1.1% (710.8%)
• Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%)
• “Apply for citizenship”: Increase from 17,020 in December (outside Canada) to 21,965. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): -0.4% (-22.1%). In Canada: -0.2% (-5.7%)
• Visitor Visas: Stable from 138,752 in November (Ukrainians less than 10% of total, declining portion) to 140,231 in December. December year-over-year change
(change from 2020): 233.2% (2,672.5%).
3
Change Across Major Programs
2022 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions-PNP
PR Admissions-Fed
TR2PR
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Asylum Claimants
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications-2021
New Citizens
Settlement Services-2021
Visitor Visas
-75% -31.25% 12.5% 56.25% 100%
-7.4%
-13.2%
109.2%
-10.3%
56.1%
101.7%
66.3%
65.1%
126.7%
93.2%
34.9%
40.2%
-35.8%
Permanent Residents
5
Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima
6
PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
7
Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by
applications from India
Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
8
Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
9
Admissions: PRs Canada Total
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees
54.6%
5.9%
28.4%
33.2%
118.2%
22.8%
275.2%
195.3%
-45.5%
-34.4%
-59.4%
-12.8%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
10
Admissions: PNP Provinces
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
35.8%
17.3%
39.2%
41.9%
33.5%
102.6%
15%
116.5%
-10%
112.5%
22.6%
243.2%
-44.6%
-27.3%
12.9%
-28.5%
14.4%
4.3%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
11
Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
100%
300%
500%
700%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
-21.3%
33.7%
128.9%
21.1%
-5.1%
101.3%
-29.9%
6.5%
-37.3%
67.8%
27.3%
107.8%
625.5%
74%
88.7%
181%
107.7%
114.1%
39%
146.9%
-60.4%
-37.3%
48.9%
-25.1%
-50.2%
-15.2%
34%
-34.8%
-59.7%
-66.5%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
12
Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents
By Program—2018-22
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
13
Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
76%
12.7%
3.7%
199.2%
99.7%
136.2%
205.5%
-38.3%
7.5%
0%
-9.4%
61.3%
590.2%
430.4%
-88.8%
-83.7%
-85.7%
-87.7%
-90.4%
-17.5%
-74.2%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
14
Admissions: TRs to PRs
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-90%
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
62.7%
79.7%
114.8%
88.6% 92.3%
95.8%
65.6%
103.1%
-78.8%
-70%
-85.9%
-80.9%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
15
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
16
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21
Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil
-7.2%
34.8%
30.4%
3.3%
142.4%
-0.8%
-10.8%
-4.2%
-24.6%
-17.7%
-0.9%
33.9%
-26.7%
16.9%
84.7%
9.3%
50.3%
43.6%
-9.5%
-29.7%
January 2023-22 January 2023-21
17
Asylum Claimants
18
Asylum Claimants: Of
fi
ce Type 2018-22
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Airport Border Inland Other
19
Note: The “other claim of
fi
ce” surge in September-November likely re
fl
ected delays in classi
fi
cation, most of these were likely Inland
Asylum Claimants: Irregular Arrivals
RCMP Interceptions as Percent Total Asylum Claimants
0
1,250
2,500
3,750
5,000
15%
30%
45%
60%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Percent Claimants Irregual Arrivals
20
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-1,000%
0%
1,000%
2,000%
3,000%
4,000%
Airport Border Inland
-17%
123.4%
146.4%
362.7%
1,545.5%
3,038.5%
95.5%
61.1%
108.2%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
21
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-1,250%
0%
1,250%
2,500%
3,750%
5,000%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-39.6%
734.3%
366.7%
-50%
20.6%
182.7%
-80.4%
88.1%
397.6%
-10.9%
750%
1,172.7%
4,520%
100%
1,016.7%
916.7%
1,050%
495.5%
1,200%
325.9%
-19%
-15.7%
168.6%
120%
48.9%
103.3%
21.1%
74.7%
158.3%
202.6%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
22
Temporary Residents
23
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22
17,500
35,000
52,500
70,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers
Agriculture LMIA 24
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total
Year to Year Comparison (quarterly)
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 2022-Q4
20.5%
83.8%
16%
-19.4%
-19.8%
-1%
27.6%
72.3%
5.4%
-13.2%
-19.9%
-7%
39.3%
16.7%
15.8%
6.5%
131.1%
59.7%
61.3%
-22.2%
-37.6%
146.6%
54.7%
57.6%
29.8%
-54.4%
-47.5%
2.6%
42.7%
10.6%
30.7%
1.5%
IMP TFWP
25
Temporary Residents by Program Canada
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
156.7%
28.5%
-48.9%
53.1%
-9.5%
59.7%
-24.2%
-63%
-23.5%
-33.7%
130.2%
32.9%
-31%
93.3%
1%
December 2022/21 Decembe 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
26
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
27
IMP by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-45%
0%
45%
90%
135%
180%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
-19%
0%
-8.7%
-32.8%
-29.2%
1.1%
-6.2%
6.4%
-31.1%
172.5%
91.1%
-6%
-21.8%
45.5%
174.2%
52.4%
-26.6%
18%
-1%
-30.9%
87%
9.1%
37.1%
6.7%
117.9%
21.9%
135.3%
18%
7.3%
129%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
28
IMP by Province
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
55.1%
46%
39.6%
72.7%
81.2%
49%
100.9%
-5.2%
60.4%
1.7%
23.9%
-13.5%
5.7%
36.9%
89.8%
191.2%
176.6%
293.2%
142.8%
61.8%
127.9%
Decembe 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
29
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
30
TFWP by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
134%
71.9%
26.3%
-40.4%
12.1%
160.3%
48.2%
93.7%
9.8%
45.3%
53.1%
3%
0%
150%
-42.6%
30.7%
30.4%
-16.4%
-64.1%
11.3%
157.9%
78.9%
27.3%
25%
56%
210.7%
69.8%
18.6%
75%
51%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
31
TFWP by Province
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
58.1%
60.3%
69.8%
63%
31%
120.7%
112.4%
4.2%
63.8%
233.3%
100%
-7.7%
55.8%
63.6%
86.7%
134.1%
122.2%
242.9%
70.2%
108.4%
30.9%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
32
Work Permits—Web Interest
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured
33
Work Permits—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia
189.5%
188.2%
140.8%
39.3%
436.6%
108.9%
35.7%
131%
40.2%
62.1%
73.4%
67.4%
84.7%
21.3%
172.8%
27.7%
38.9%
17.5%
24%
17.4%
January 2023/22 January 2023/21
34
Study Permits
35
Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22
22,500
45,000
67,500
90,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
36
Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
37
Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
38
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-175%
0%
175%
350%
525%
700%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
150%
9.9%
68.2%
93.4%
-1.6%
-17.2%
26.6%
-32.2%
-38.3%
114.1%
340.6%
-28.7%
3.3%
52%
109.4%
61.7%
-44.8%
-10.5%
20%
689.7%
83.7%
-7.7%
-32.6%
3.4%
-20.7%
16.9%
-38.6%
-27.4%
-40.5%
154.1%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
39
Study Permit Holders by Province
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
34.6%
51.7%
44.4%
19.9%
66.3%
45.6%
51.1%
215.7%
260.9%
297.5%
167.6%
468.6%
31.8%
352.1%
59.7%
75.8%
82.6%
53.4%
100.1%
10.1%
72.0%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
40
Study Permits—Web Interest
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured
41
Study Permits—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-90%
-45%
0%
45%
90%
135%
180%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
90.9%
161.5%
-28.4%
-31.2%
82%
-27.4%
80.3%
79.9%
-11.2%
-26.1%
55.5%
-38.2%
-12.1%
-44.3%
24.3%
-11.6%
50.7%
104.6%
12.7%
-30.8%
January 2023/22 January 2023/21
42
Settlement Services
43
Settlement—By Service—2018-22
Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services
68,750
137,500
206,250
275,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7
Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services
Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment
Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement
44
Settlement Services
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation
Needs, Assets & Referrals
Employment Related
Information & Orientation
Community Connections
Language Assessment
Language Training
Resettlement Assistance
Service Delivery Improvement
-400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600%
-35.5%
-56.3%
-22.3%
-50.1%
-21.4%
-6.3%
-10.5%
-20.3%
-56.3%
-85.3%
1,544.4%
7.0%
267.9%
32.9%
20.7%
25.6%
40.4%
238.0%
-64.3%
122.6%
8.6%
190.1%
10.9%
16.2%
17.5%
41.8%
171.6%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
45
Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
46
Settlement Services by Citizenship
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10, 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia
4.2%
57.7%
-15.9%
-11%
6.3%
-25.6%
-38.4%
-21.8%
-26.2%
-18%
1.3%
286.3%
10.2%
-2.7%
20.2%
-11.8%
1.9%
13.3%
9.2%
-12.2%
4.5%
281.6%
2.8%
-7.1%
11.2%
-9.4%
-4.9%
23.9%
5.1%
-15.3%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
47
Settlement Services
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
12.5%
25%
37.5%
50%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-11.8%
-18.5%
-10.9%
-25.7%
-13%
-29.1%
7.5%
34.6%
42.4%
22.2%
0.8%
13.0%
-1.3%
10.9%
16.6%
39.1%
15.2%
3.3%
9.5%
5.4%
5.5%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
48
Settlement Services—Web Interest
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5 2022-11
Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
49
Settlement Services—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21
Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines
-37.5%
-52.2%
-48.2%
-23.1%
-76.6%
-14.9%
-29.2%
-49.5%
-52.6%
-73%
-0.7%
-74.5%
-20%
-52.7%
-25.8%
-39.1%
-17.7%
-39.3%
-48.3%
-66%
January 2023-22 January 2023-21
50
Citizenship
51
Citizenship Applications—2018-21
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7
52
New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
53
Citizenship by Region of Birth
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-200%
600%
1,400%
2,200%
3,000%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
110.3%
88.2%
25%
162.4%
185.1%
60.2%
8.8%
29.6%
203.2%
109.1%
337.1%
946.2%
556.9%
53%
2,778.9%
1,282.8%
681.9%
802.3%
1,153.9%
993%
-34.1%
43.2%
7%
-51.7%
133.3%
5.2%
14.7%
-5%
22.8%
3.7%
December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
54
Citizenship—Web Interest
Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1
Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured
55
Citizenship—Web Interest
January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21
Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh
-36.9%
-18.3%
-7.2%
154.1%
-23.3%
-5%
84.3%
-36%
-30.3%
-48.5%
8.7%
-3.1%
19.6%
86.1%
14.1%
33.6%
78.6%
6.2%
-26.1%
-13.2%
January 2023/22 January 2023/21
56
Approved Visitor Visas
57
Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
58
Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
Visitor Visas—By Source Country
December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-3,500%
0%
3,500%
7,000%
10,500%
14,000%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-55.2%
1.8%
-36%
28.4%
-22.1%
-39.5%
-35.5%
-4.7%
9.1%
-81.8%
616.8%
2,429.1%
1,138.1%
7,435.3%
12,240.4%
10,803%
846.8%
2,534.6%
3,527.1%
1,093.8%
196.7%
191.7%
138.5%
427.2%
389.8%
1,232.6%
-22%
191%
240.8%
119%
December 2022-21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18
59
Note: The most dramatic change has been the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel
which was not among the top 10 in 2018.
Research Questions
60
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
Annex
61
Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
62
Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
63
Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of
Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration
Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category,
Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent
Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking),
Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year
in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit holders by
province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for
New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
• 2018 is used as baseline
64

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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - December 2022 and full-year comparisons

  • 1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to December 2022 Working Draft - Key Slides 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
  • 2. Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
  • 3. December 2022 Highlights • PRs: Admissions decrease from 25,925 in November to 23,340 in December. December Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP -12.8% (195.3%), Economic - Federal -59.4% (275.2%), Family -34.4% (22.8%), Refugees -45.5% (118.2%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. From 17,937 in May (time delays greater) to 17,822 in June. June year-over-year change (change from 2020): -65.7% (-65.7%). • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From 2,077 in December (all Arrima) to 11,000 in January (no Arrima). January year-over-year change (change from 2020): 386.3% (9.0%) • Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Increase from 430,087 in December (seasonal) (outside Canada) to 493,737 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 5.8% (16.8%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Increase from 3,890 in November (some double counting) to 5,205 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -81.5% (91.0%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Decline (seasonal) from 53,545 in November to 47,910 in December. December year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 1.0% (-33.7%), Canadian Interests: 93.3% (-23.5%), Other IMP Participants 842.9% (8,931.6%), Not stated 136.4% (771.1%) • TRs/TFWP: Decline (seasonal) from 9,600 in November to 8,030 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers -31.0% (-63.0%), Agriculture 32.9% (-24.2%) and Other LMIA 130.2% (59.7%). • Web “Get a work permit”: Increase from 106,622 in December (outside Canada) to 134,406 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 36.5% (110.7%) • Students: End of year increase from 23,335 in November to 96,270 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 76.8% (288.6%) • Applications: Decrease (seasonal) from 78,353 in November to 14,327 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): -72.4% (-61.2%) • Web “Get a study permit”: Increase from 57,395 in December (outside Canada) to 70,830 in January. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): 1.7% (13.9%) • Asylum Claimants: Increase from 9,795 in November (half at border) to 11,385 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 79.3% (818.1%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Increase from 3,791 in November to 4,745 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 68.8% (13,080.6%). Dramatic increase in numbers at “Other of fi ces” • Settlement Services: Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July (most recent data). July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%) • Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Increase from 4,802 in December. (outside Canada) to 5,802 in January (decline in Canada). January year-over-year change (change from 2021): -39.7% (-48.1%). In Canada: -40.3% (-42.4%) • Citizenship: Decrease (seasonal) from 35,598 in November to 22,426 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 1.1% (710.8%) • Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%) • “Apply for citizenship”: Increase from 17,020 in December (outside Canada) to 21,965. January year-over-year change (change from 2021): -0.4% (-22.1%). In Canada: -0.2% (-5.7%) • Visitor Visas: Stable from 138,752 in November (Ukrainians less than 10% of total, declining portion) to 140,231 in December. December year-over-year change (change from 2020): 233.2% (2,672.5%). 3
  • 4. Change Across Major Programs 2022 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline 4 PR Applications PR Admissions-PNP PR Admissions-Fed TR2PR Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Asylum Claimants Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications-2021 New Citizens Settlement Services-2021 Visitor Visas -75% -31.25% 12.5% 56.25% 100% -7.4% -13.2% 109.2% -10.3% 56.1% 101.7% 66.3% 65.1% 126.7% 93.2% 34.9% 40.2% -35.8%
  • 6. Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima 6
  • 7. PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 7 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India
  • 8. Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 8
  • 9. Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 9
  • 10. Admissions: PRs Canada Total December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 54.6% 5.9% 28.4% 33.2% 118.2% 22.8% 275.2% 195.3% -45.5% -34.4% -59.4% -12.8% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 10
  • 11. Admissions: PNP Provinces December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 35.8% 17.3% 39.2% 41.9% 33.5% 102.6% 15% 116.5% -10% 112.5% 22.6% 243.2% -44.6% -27.3% 12.9% -28.5% 14.4% 4.3% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 11
  • 12. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 100% 300% 500% 700% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK -21.3% 33.7% 128.9% 21.1% -5.1% 101.3% -29.9% 6.5% -37.3% 67.8% 27.3% 107.8% 625.5% 74% 88.7% 181% 107.7% 114.1% 39% 146.9% -60.4% -37.3% 48.9% -25.1% -50.2% -15.2% 34% -34.8% -59.7% -66.5% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 12
  • 13. Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-22 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 13
  • 14. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 76% 12.7% 3.7% 199.2% 99.7% 136.2% 205.5% -38.3% 7.5% 0% -9.4% 61.3% 590.2% 430.4% -88.8% -83.7% -85.7% -87.7% -90.4% -17.5% -74.2% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 14
  • 15. Admissions: TRs to PRs December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -90% -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 62.7% 79.7% 114.8% 88.6% 92.3% 95.8% 65.6% 103.1% -78.8% -70% -85.9% -80.9% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 15
  • 16. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci fi ed 16
  • 17. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21 Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil -7.2% 34.8% 30.4% 3.3% 142.4% -0.8% -10.8% -4.2% -24.6% -17.7% -0.9% 33.9% -26.7% 16.9% 84.7% 9.3% 50.3% 43.6% -9.5% -29.7% January 2023-22 January 2023-21 17
  • 19. Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-22 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Airport Border Inland Other 19 Note: The “other claim of fi ce” surge in September-November likely re fl ected delays in classi fi cation, most of these were likely Inland
  • 20. Asylum Claimants: Irregular Arrivals RCMP Interceptions as Percent Total Asylum Claimants 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 15% 30% 45% 60% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Percent Claimants Irregual Arrivals 20
  • 21. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -1,000% 0% 1,000% 2,000% 3,000% 4,000% Airport Border Inland -17% 123.4% 146.4% 362.7% 1,545.5% 3,038.5% 95.5% 61.1% 108.2% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 21
  • 22. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -1,250% 0% 1,250% 2,500% 3,750% 5,000% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA -39.6% 734.3% 366.7% -50% 20.6% 182.7% -80.4% 88.1% 397.6% -10.9% 750% 1,172.7% 4,520% 100% 1,016.7% 916.7% 1,050% 495.5% 1,200% 325.9% -19% -15.7% 168.6% 120% 48.9% 103.3% 21.1% 74.7% 158.3% 202.6% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 22
  • 24. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22 17,500 35,000 52,500 70,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 24
  • 25. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total Year to Year Comparison (quarterly) -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 2022-Q3 2022-Q4 20.5% 83.8% 16% -19.4% -19.8% -1% 27.6% 72.3% 5.4% -13.2% -19.9% -7% 39.3% 16.7% 15.8% 6.5% 131.1% 59.7% 61.3% -22.2% -37.6% 146.6% 54.7% 57.6% 29.8% -54.4% -47.5% 2.6% 42.7% 10.6% 30.7% 1.5% IMP TFWP 25
  • 26. Temporary Residents by Program Canada December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 156.7% 28.5% -48.9% 53.1% -9.5% 59.7% -24.2% -63% -23.5% -33.7% 130.2% 32.9% -31% 93.3% 1% December 2022/21 Decembe 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 26
  • 27. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 27
  • 28. IMP by Citizenship December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -45% 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan -19% 0% -8.7% -32.8% -29.2% 1.1% -6.2% 6.4% -31.1% 172.5% 91.1% -6% -21.8% 45.5% 174.2% 52.4% -26.6% 18% -1% -30.9% 87% 9.1% 37.1% 6.7% 117.9% 21.9% 135.3% 18% 7.3% 129% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 28
  • 29. IMP by Province December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 55.1% 46% 39.6% 72.7% 81.2% 49% 100.9% -5.2% 60.4% 1.7% 23.9% -13.5% 5.7% 36.9% 89.8% 191.2% 176.6% 293.2% 142.8% 61.8% 127.9% Decembe 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 29
  • 30. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 30
  • 31. TFWP by Citizenship December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 134% 71.9% 26.3% -40.4% 12.1% 160.3% 48.2% 93.7% 9.8% 45.3% 53.1% 3% 0% 150% -42.6% 30.7% 30.4% -16.4% -64.1% 11.3% 157.9% 78.9% 27.3% 25% 56% 210.7% 69.8% 18.6% 75% 51% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 31
  • 32. TFWP by Province December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 58.1% 60.3% 69.8% 63% 31% 120.7% 112.4% 4.2% 63.8% 233.3% 100% -7.7% 55.8% 63.6% 86.7% 134.1% 122.2% 242.9% 70.2% 108.4% 30.9% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 32
  • 33. Work Permits—Web Interest 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured 33
  • 34. Work Permits—Web Interest January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21 Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia 189.5% 188.2% 140.8% 39.3% 436.6% 108.9% 35.7% 131% 40.2% 62.1% 73.4% 67.4% 84.7% 21.3% 172.8% 27.7% 38.9% 17.5% 24% 17.4% January 2023/22 January 2023/21 34
  • 36. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22 22,500 45,000 67,500 90,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 36
  • 37. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 37
  • 38. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 38
  • 39. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 150% 9.9% 68.2% 93.4% -1.6% -17.2% 26.6% -32.2% -38.3% 114.1% 340.6% -28.7% 3.3% 52% 109.4% 61.7% -44.8% -10.5% 20% 689.7% 83.7% -7.7% -32.6% 3.4% -20.7% 16.9% -38.6% -27.4% -40.5% 154.1% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 39
  • 40. Study Permit Holders by Province December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 0% 125% 250% 375% 500% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 34.6% 51.7% 44.4% 19.9% 66.3% 45.6% 51.1% 215.7% 260.9% 297.5% 167.6% 468.6% 31.8% 352.1% 59.7% 75.8% 82.6% 53.4% 100.1% 10.1% 72.0% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 40
  • 41. Study Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured 41
  • 42. Study Permits—Web Interest January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21 Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -90% -45% 0% 45% 90% 135% 180% India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan 90.9% 161.5% -28.4% -31.2% 82% -27.4% 80.3% 79.9% -11.2% -26.1% 55.5% -38.2% -12.1% -44.3% 24.3% -11.6% 50.7% 104.6% 12.7% -30.8% January 2023/22 January 2023/21 42
  • 44. Settlement—By Service—2018-22 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7 Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 44
  • 45. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation Needs, Assets & Referrals Employment Related Information & Orientation Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement -400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600% -35.5% -56.3% -22.3% -50.1% -21.4% -6.3% -10.5% -20.3% -56.3% -85.3% 1,544.4% 7.0% 267.9% 32.9% 20.7% 25.6% 40.4% 238.0% -64.3% 122.6% 8.6% 190.1% 10.9% 16.2% 17.5% 41.8% 171.6% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 45
  • 46. Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 46
  • 47. Settlement Services by Citizenship July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10, 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia 4.2% 57.7% -15.9% -11% 6.3% -25.6% -38.4% -21.8% -26.2% -18% 1.3% 286.3% 10.2% -2.7% 20.2% -11.8% 1.9% 13.3% 9.2% -12.2% 4.5% 281.6% 2.8% -7.1% 11.2% -9.4% -4.9% 23.9% 5.1% -15.3% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 47
  • 48. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -37.5% -25% -12.5% 0% 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC -11.8% -18.5% -10.9% -25.7% -13% -29.1% 7.5% 34.6% 42.4% 22.2% 0.8% 13.0% -1.3% 10.9% 16.6% 39.1% 15.2% 3.3% 9.5% 5.4% 5.5% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 48
  • 49. Settlement Services—Web Interest 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5 2022-11 Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci fi ed 49
  • 50. Settlement Services—Web Interest January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21 Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines -37.5% -52.2% -48.2% -23.1% -76.6% -14.9% -29.2% -49.5% -52.6% -73% -0.7% -74.5% -20% -52.7% -25.8% -39.1% -17.7% -39.3% -48.3% -66% January 2023-22 January 2023-21 50
  • 53. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 53
  • 54. Citizenship by Region of Birth December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -200% 600% 1,400% 2,200% 3,000% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France 110.3% 88.2% 25% 162.4% 185.1% 60.2% 8.8% 29.6% 203.2% 109.1% 337.1% 946.2% 556.9% 53% 2,778.9% 1,282.8% 681.9% 802.3% 1,153.9% 993% -34.1% 43.2% 7% -51.7% 133.3% 5.2% 14.7% -5% 22.8% 3.7% December 2022/21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 54
  • 55. Citizenship—Web Interest Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured 55
  • 56. Citizenship—Web Interest January Comparison: 2023/22, 2023/21 Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh -36.9% -18.3% -7.2% 154.1% -23.3% -5% 84.3% -36% -30.3% -48.5% 8.7% -3.1% 19.6% 86.1% 14.1% 33.6% 78.6% 6.2% -26.1% -13.2% January 2023/22 January 2023/21 56
  • 58. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 58 Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
  • 59. Visitor Visas—By Source Country December Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -3,500% 0% 3,500% 7,000% 10,500% 14,000% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -55.2% 1.8% -36% 28.4% -22.1% -39.5% -35.5% -4.7% 9.1% -81.8% 616.8% 2,429.1% 1,138.1% 7,435.3% 12,240.4% 10,803% 846.8% 2,534.6% 3,527.1% 1,093.8% 196.7% 191.7% 138.5% 427.2% 389.8% 1,232.6% -22% 191% 240.8% 119% December 2022-21 December 2022/20 Full year 2022/18 59 Note: The most dramatic change has been the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel which was not among the top 10 in 2018.
  • 60. Research Questions 60 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
  • 62. Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 62
  • 63. Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 63
  • 64. Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 64