The macroeconomic outlook following the COVID-19 pandemic is gloomy, ranging between 3-10% in GDP decline for 2020. Recovery will depend heavily on how fast consumer confidence, employment and global trade can rebound. As a business leader, understanding how the macro outlook will impact your business is critical – especially if you are exposed to export markets. In this short webinar, we will present the latest views on both global and Scandinavian macroeconomic outlooks, including scenarios to consider in the short, mid and long term, as well as a practical macro toolkit for evaluating your company’s exposure to key economic factors.

1. 1

2. 400 people 15 people
1 person 1 person
Source: Implement Economics based on health organisation and government information 6
WITH
SOCIAL DISTANCING
2.5 people 1.25 people
infects infects
IN 5
DAYS
AFTER
30 DAYS
PROTECTING HUMANS
Social distancing has been the policyto protecthumanity from the spread of COVID-19
WITHOUT
SOCIAL DISTANCING
infects infects

3. SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL AFFECT US
7
Demand
shock
Productivity
drop
Supply chain
disruption
SOCIAL DISTANCING
restrictions and behaviour
Work
closure
No mass
gatherings
Cordon
sanitaire
Stay
at home
Education
closure
Border
closure
In fact, we wantthe economyto shut down for a period of time
until the spread of the virus is at a manageable level

4. TO WHAT EXTENT
DO YOU FEEL INFORMED
ABOUT THE ECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF COVID-19?
POLL
How bad will it be?
Not
at all
Very
much
A little
More than
average

5. 9Note: 1) 2020F (old) is based on IMF forecast from October 2019. 2020F (new) is based on IMF forecast from April 2020.
Source: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2019 and April 2020
THE GREAT LOCKDOWN
WORLD
REAL GDP GROWTH
2019-20201
Year-on-year percent
change
3.4
2020F2019
2.9
-3.0
Actual 2019
2020 forecast from Oct. 2019
2020 forecast from April 2020

6. WORLD
10Note: 1) 2020F (old) is based on IMF forecast from October 2019. 2020F (new) is based on IMF forecast from April 2020.
Source: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2019 and April 2020
REAL GDP GROWTH
2019-20201
Year-on-year percent
change
3.4
2020F2019
2.9
-3.0
UNITED STATES
LATIN AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN
EURO AREA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST AND
CENTRAL ASIA
EMERGING AND
DEVELOPING ASIA
2019
2.3
2020F
2.1
-5.9
1.41.2
2019
-7.5
2020F
2019 2020F
1.8
0.1
-5.2
3.6
2019
3.1
2020F
-1.6
2.9
1.2
2019 2020F
-2.8
2019 2020F
6.0
5.5
1.0
Actual 2019
2020 forecast from Oct. 2019
2020 forecast from April 2020
THE GREAT LOCKDOWN
. . . LEAVES NO REGION
UNAFFECTED

7. 11Note: 1) GDP per capita adjusted for price changes over time (inflation) and price differences between countries – measured in international $ in 2011 prices. 2) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook
Sources: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020; Our World in Data and Maddison Project Database
WESTERN EUROPE REAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH1
Percent draw-down from previous peak
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1890 19701880 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Historical development The Great Lockdown Uncertain future
Great
Financial Crisis
Second oil crisis
World War II
World War I
Wall Street Crash
and Great Depression
First oil crisis Dot.com
DEEPEST DIP SINCE …
The Great Lockdown
-7.5% GDP decrease in
20202 with highly uncertain
long-term impact.

8. 12Note: 1) GDP per capita adjusted for price changes over time (inflation) and price differences between countries – measured in international $ in 2011 prices. 2) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook
Sources: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020; Our World in Data and Maddison Project Database
WESTERN EUROPE REAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH1
Percent draw-down from previous peak
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1900 19201880 1890 1910 19701930 1940 1950 1960 20101980 1990 2000 2020
Historical development The Great Lockdown Uncertain future
Second oil crisis
World War II
World War I
Wall Street Crash
and Great Depression
First oil crisis Dot.com
Great
Financial Crisis
DEEPEST DIP SINCE …

9. 13Note: 1) GDP per capita adjusted for price changes over time (inflation) and price differences between countries – measured in international $ in 2011 prices. 2) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook
Sources: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020; Our World in Data and Maddison Project Database
WESTERN EUROPE REAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH1
Percent draw-down from previous peak
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1900 19201880 1890 1910 19701930 1940 1950 1960 20101980 1990 2000 2020
Historical development The Great Lockdown Uncertain future
Second oil crisis
World War II
World War I
Wall Street Crash
and Great Depression
First oil crisis Dot.com
Great
Financial Crisis
DEEPEST DIP SINCE …

10. Wall Street Crash
and Great Depression
14Note: 1) GDP per capita adjusted for price changes over time (inflation) and price differences between countries – measured in international $ in 2011 prices. 2) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook
Sources: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020; Our World in Data and Maddison Project Database
WESTERN EUROPE REAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH1
Percent draw-down from previous peak
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
20101880 1890 1900 20201910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Historical development The Great Lockdown Uncertain future
Second oil crisis
World War I
First oil crisis Dot.com
Great
Financial Crisis
World War II
DEEPEST DIP SINCE …

11. 15Note: 1) GDP per capita adjusted for price changes over time (inflation) and price differences between countries – measured in international $ in 2011 prices. 2) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook
Sources: Implement Economics based on review of forecasts from IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2020; Our World in Data and Maddison Project Database
WESTERN EUROPE REAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH1
Percent draw-down from previous peak
-21
-20
-19
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1910 19301880 1890 19201900 196019501940 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Historical development Uncertain futureThe Great Lockdown
The Great Lockdown
-7.5% GDP decrease in
20202 with highly uncertain
long-term impact.
Great
Financial Crisis
Second oil crisis
World War II
World War I
Wall Street Crash
and Great Depression
First oil crisis Dot.com
DEEPEST DIP SINCE …

12. -7%
-7%
-6%
-6%
-7%
-9%
-7%
-8%
-6%
-7%
-10% -10% -10%
-13% -13%
-15%
-14%
-12%
-11%
-13%
​Denmark ​Sweden ​Norway ​Finland ​Germany ​Italy ​France ​Spain ​Switzerland ​UK
(Nordea)
Source: Implement Economics based on IMF WorldEconomic Outlook, April 2020, IFO, Central bank of Denmark, Bank of Finland, Nordea and UK Office forBudget Responsibility
(OBR)
16
REAL GDP GROWTH FOR 2020
Year-on-year percent change
(OBR)
(IFO)
(IFO)
(IFO)
(IFO)
(IFO)
(Nordea)(Central bank)
(Central bank)
IMF scenario
April 2020
Downside
risk
SEVERE RECESSIONS IN EUROPE IN 2020

13. POLL
TO WHAT EXTENT
HAVE YOU ASSESSED THE
IMPACT ON YOUR BUSINESS?
How will this affect my business?
Not
at all
Very
much
A little
More than
average

14. Source: Implement Economics 18
WHAT YOU WOULD NEED TO BELIEVE
- shaped scenario
U
L
V
• Short, one-off, lockdown
• Effects only temporary
• No permanent damage
to economy
• Long and deep lockdown
• Continuous recurrence of
virus
• Permanent damage to
economy
• Longer lockdown periods
• Some effects temporary
• Some long-lasting
damage to the economy
• Gradual opening
• Social distancing still need
• Recurring lockdowns
• A lower growth level
• Gradual improvementover time
ELEVATORDOWN – STAIRS UP
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
RECOVERY IS BUMPY, COUNTRY SPECIFIC
AND HARD TO PREDICT
- shaped scenario
- shaped scenario
WHAT WE TEND TO BELIEVE

15. 19
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
How fast will economic
activity resume?
?
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

16. 20
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
How fast will economic
activity resume?
?
Q?
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

17. 21
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
How fast will economic
activity resume?
?
A!
15-40%
of GDP
Rule of Thumb:
8 Weeks at -20%
=> -4% drop in annualGDP
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

18. 22
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
How fast will economic
activity resume?
?
Q?
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

19. 23
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
How fast will economic
activity resume?
?
A!
Rule of Thumb:
One week additional lockdown
=> - 0,5%-pointon annualGDP
8-12 weeks
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

20. 24
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
Which of these countries
recoveredfastestfrom the
Financial crisis?
- And how many quarters?
?
DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN

21. DEEP DIVE
THE ANATOMY OF THE GREAT LOCKDOWN
25
DEPTHOF
LOCKDOWN
How much economic activity is
lostduring lockdown?
DURATION OF
LOCKDOWN
How many weeksof
lockdown?
SPEED OF
RECOVERY
Which of these countries
recovered fastestfrom the
Financial crisis?
- And how many quarters?
?
2005 2008 2011 2014
Real GDP
Peak is
index =100
8
Quarters to
regain 2008 level

22. 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Implement Economics based on scenarios analysis covering ten European countries 26
IMPLEMENT ECONOMICS VIEWPOINT
Western European countries | GDP will drop -7% to -14% in 2020
with a longer recovery period into 2021 towards a new normal on a
lower growth path
Normal GDP trend, i.e. potential GDP
with full utilisation of resources (labour
and capital)
COVID-19 scenario GDP
Downturn
App. 4 months
Mar. 2020-Jul. 2020
Recovery
App. 12 months
Aug. 2020-Aug. 2021
GDP drop for 2020
compared to 2019
-7% to –14%
Lockdown Gradual
opening
Limited or no
restrictions
No
restrictions
New Normal
Coming 2-5 years
Sep. 2021 onwards
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Government restrictions
in scenario
ACTUAL, POTENTIAL
AND SCENARIO GDP
Constant prices

23. COVID-19 RESPONSE
TOOL KIT | Prepare recovery now – think short and fast
Plan for new normal – think long and hard
27
DOWNTURN RECOVERY NEW NORMAL
TOOL KITS
2020Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021 Q2
BUSINESS LEADERS
SHOULD CONSIDER
Think long and hard
Is the strategy still intact?
What kinds of structural changes to expect?
What scenarios to plan for?
Time to adjust where-to-play and how-to-win
choices?
Can the supply chain be more robust?
Think short and fast
What will recovery look
like in different
scenarios?
What is the optimal
recovery plan?
WHAT TO DO ON
MONDAY?
Read the slides on
Sunday
Assess impacts and
prepare recovery plan.
Use practical tools
Start redirecting your
business to the new
normal
How to turn this
situation into a
competitive advantage?
How to come out
stronger than
competitors?

24. SUPPLY
JOB
MARKET
FINANCIAL
MARKET
DEMAND
Diagnostic tool | What are your most critical impacts
of the Great Lockdown?
28
THEMES
to consider
1
2
3
DRIVERS
What to watch
LOCKDOWN
Expected impact
RECOVERY
Expected impact
“NEW NORMAL”
Expected impact
DIAGNOSIS SUMMARY
Assessment
Weak position with significantnegative impactexpected
Phase 1 (~Q2) Phase 2 (Q3->) Phase 3 (2021->)
Lockdownlevelsandreopeningplans(w-t-w)
Small negative impactexpectedStrong, robustposition w. limited impactexpected
4
Domestic demand
W-t-W: Debit card data
Export market demand
W-t-W: Change in import volume
Consumer sentiment
W-t-W: Consumer confidence
Trade development
W-t-W: Baltic Dry + trade data
Unemploymenttrends
W-t-W: New registered unempl.
Credit
W-t-W: Accessshort-termcredit
Interest rates
W-t-W: Bank rates
Robustness
W-t-W: Bank buffer and solvency
Logistics and transport
W-t-W: Lead time and borders
Trade policy and protection
W-t-W: Tariffs and regulation
Social distancingmeasures
W-t-W: Labour productivity
Job openings and profiles
W-t-W: Scan of w eb portals

25. 29
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
53%
52%
-70%
28%
14%
-25%
-50%
-30%
-90%
-90%
Alcohol
Grocery
Restaurants
Personal hygiene
Health
Beauty
Clothing and shoes
Other retail
Hotels
Aviation
Foodand
beverage
s
Personal
careRetail
Travel
and
turism
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
53%
52%
-70%
28%
14%
-25%
-50%
-30%
-90%
-90%
Alcohol
Grocery
Restaurants
Personal hygiene
Health
Beauty
Clothing and shoes
Other retail
Hotels
Aviation
Foodand
beverage
s
Personal
careRetail
Travel
and
turism
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
53%
52%
-70%
28%
14%
-25%
-50%
-30%
-90%
-90%
Alcohol
Grocery
Restaurants
Personal hygiene
Health
Beauty
Clothing and shoes
Other retail
Hotels
Aviation
Foodand
beverage
s
Personal
careRetail
Travel
and
turism
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
53%
52%
-70%
28%
14%
-25%
-50%
-30%
-90%
-90%
Alcohol
Grocery
Restaurants
Personal hygiene
Health
Beauty
Clothing and shoes
Other retail
Hotels
Aviation
Foodand
beverage
s
Personal
careRetail
Travel
and
turism
COMPANY
Sweden
Denmark
Norway
Finland
fewBusiness line 1
Business line 2
xx
xx
fewBusiness line 1
Business line 2
xx
xx
fewBusiness line 1
Business line 2
xx
xx
fewBusiness line 1
Business line 2
xx
xx
GDP SCENARIOS
National GDP scenarios for 2020-25
SECTOR RESULTS
Development of individual sectors
REVENUE
Business units
SCENARIO IMPACT
Periodical impact
Impact tool | Scenarios to assess impacts after the Great Lockdown

26. Strategy tool | Re-assessing key strategy choices
30
What is our winning
aspiration?
Where will we play?
How will we win?
What core
capabilitiesmust
we have?
What management
systems dowe
need?
Your strategy should
consistof five key choices
What choices had you made
before COVID-19?
What adjustments do you need to make
to win during and after COVID-19?