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6 6
THE RESPONSE TO A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IS TO
PLAN FOR A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE
AND PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS
7
GROWING IN ADVERSITY
IS ALL ABOUT SCENARIOS
POLL
Future?
Which potential and
plausible scenarios could
unfold in the near future?
Consequences?
Which consequences would
each scenario have on e.g. your
customers and business?
Actions?
How should you act to
gain the most from every
potential scenario?
Is growth on the agenda for your
management meetings right now?
8 8
MAPPINGTHE FUTURE
Uncertainty has skyrocketed, and decision-
making should be driven by scenarios
Identify scenarios
based on impact
and likelihood
9
IDENTIFYINGSCENARIOS
Be iterative
Identifying
• Identify driving forces for changes.
• Create a two by two with the two most
critical and independent driving forces.
• Map the possible scenarios.
10 10
THE CONSEQUENCES
OF THE FUTURE
Uncertainty has skyrocketed, and decision-
making should be driven by scenarios
Create narratives
around each
scenario
11
UNDERSTANDING
CONSEQUENCES
Be realistic
Storytelling
• Build scenario narratives which stretch your thinking.
• Describe the future conditions for the scenarios.
• Use mood boards and classic storytelling techniques.
12 12
TAKINGACTION
Taking decisive action to soften the
economic shock requires understanding of
the impact on your business
Analyse the
business
consequences for
each scenario
Decide on actions
to take to grow in
each scenario
13
PROACTIVENESS
FOR GROWTH
Be decisive
Analysing
• Analyse the business impact in
each scenario (implications).
• Analyse how customers and
competitors will react.
• Consider other effects in the
organisation and the external
environment.
Taking action
• Consider the different options for
action in each scenario.
• Decide how to place your bet on the
scenarios.
Use a pragmatic approach that is also systematic to generate, overview and
prioritize growth ideas… What would you do in different scenarios
APPROACH PURPOSE
FINDING GETTING GROWING KEEPING
NEW VALUE CHAIN COMPOSITION
(BUSINESS MODEL)
NEW INDUSTRYSTRUCTURE
(CONSOLIDATION OR SPLIT)
NEW GEOGRAPHIES
NEW DELIVERYAPPROACH (DISTRIBUTION)
NEW PRODUCTSAND SERVICES
EXISTING PRODUCTS TO NEW CUSTOMERS
EXISTING PRODUCTS TO EXISTING CUSTOMERS
BE PRAGMATICAND SYSTEMATIC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

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Growth in turbulence

  • 1. 3
  • 2. 6 6 THE RESPONSE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IS TO PLAN FOR A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE AND PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS
  • 3. 7 GROWING IN ADVERSITY IS ALL ABOUT SCENARIOS POLL Future? Which potential and plausible scenarios could unfold in the near future? Consequences? Which consequences would each scenario have on e.g. your customers and business? Actions? How should you act to gain the most from every potential scenario? Is growth on the agenda for your management meetings right now?
  • 4. 8 8 MAPPINGTHE FUTURE Uncertainty has skyrocketed, and decision- making should be driven by scenarios Identify scenarios based on impact and likelihood
  • 5. 9 IDENTIFYINGSCENARIOS Be iterative Identifying • Identify driving forces for changes. • Create a two by two with the two most critical and independent driving forces. • Map the possible scenarios.
  • 6. 10 10 THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE FUTURE Uncertainty has skyrocketed, and decision- making should be driven by scenarios Create narratives around each scenario
  • 7. 11 UNDERSTANDING CONSEQUENCES Be realistic Storytelling • Build scenario narratives which stretch your thinking. • Describe the future conditions for the scenarios. • Use mood boards and classic storytelling techniques.
  • 8. 12 12 TAKINGACTION Taking decisive action to soften the economic shock requires understanding of the impact on your business Analyse the business consequences for each scenario Decide on actions to take to grow in each scenario
  • 9. 13 PROACTIVENESS FOR GROWTH Be decisive Analysing • Analyse the business impact in each scenario (implications). • Analyse how customers and competitors will react. • Consider other effects in the organisation and the external environment. Taking action • Consider the different options for action in each scenario. • Decide how to place your bet on the scenarios.
  • 10. Use a pragmatic approach that is also systematic to generate, overview and prioritize growth ideas… What would you do in different scenarios APPROACH PURPOSE FINDING GETTING GROWING KEEPING NEW VALUE CHAIN COMPOSITION (BUSINESS MODEL) NEW INDUSTRYSTRUCTURE (CONSOLIDATION OR SPLIT) NEW GEOGRAPHIES NEW DELIVERYAPPROACH (DISTRIBUTION) NEW PRODUCTSAND SERVICES EXISTING PRODUCTS TO NEW CUSTOMERS EXISTING PRODUCTS TO EXISTING CUSTOMERS BE PRAGMATICAND SYSTEMATIC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7