The next 200 years and beyond

The Next 200 Years and Beyond
Envisioning long term World scenarios in terms of
economic and demographic growth
Gaetan Lion, October 24, 2021
1

Introduction
This study consist in:
1) First, reviewing the historical data of the World population and economic growth
over the past several centuries;
2) Second, envisioning what our future over the next several centuries may look like,
while assessing scenarios feasibility; and
3) Looking at recent trends over the past several decades.
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History of the World in just two charts
When focusing on long term historical economic growth and population growth, you need to
remember one single date: the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1800s.
3
Industrial
Revolution
Industrial
Revolution

Measuring the resulting CAGRs in RGDP p.c. and population growth
Extracting the relevant data from the charts, we can derive the respective compounded annual
growth rate (CAGR) for the World Real GDP per capita and the World population.
World Real GDP per capita
Begin End
Year 1870 2015 CAGR
RGDP p.c. 1,400
$ 15,000
$ 1.65%
World Population in billion
Begin End
Year 1800 2019 CAGR
RGDP p.c. 0.99 7.7 0.94%
Notice how the CAGRs appear pretty reasonable on a stand-alone basis. But, sustained over a long
period of time they result in extraordinary growth. Over the mentioned respective periods, the World
Real GDP per capita rose by over 10 fold. And, the World population rose by close to 8 fold.
4

Economic and Population Growth Scenarios over the next 200 years
Scenarios over the next 200 years using different CAGRs
World Real GDP per capita World population in billion
CAGR RGDP p.c. Multiple CAGR Pop in bil. Multiple
0.25% 24,715
$ 1.6 0.10% 9.4 1.2
0.50% 40,673
$ 2.7 0.20% 11.5 1.5
0.75% 66,850
$ 4.5 0.30% 14.0 1.8
1.00% 109,740
$ 7.3 0.40% 17.1 2.2
1.25% 179,928
$ 12.0 0.50% 20.9 2.7
1.50% 294,645
$ 19.6 0.60% 25.5 3.3
1.65% 395,884
$ 26.4 0.70% 31.1 4.0
0.80% 37.9 4.9
0.90% 46.2 6.0
0.94% 50.0 6.5
5
The historical CAGRs for economic and population growth highlighted in yellow since the Industrial Revolution, if
sustained over the next 200 years would result in absurd scenarios, including:
a) RGDP p.c. increasing over 26 times over current levels;
b) The World population reaching 50 billion.

Combining Real GDP p.c. and Population Growth to get World RGDP growth over next 200 years
World Real GDP multiple over 2015 level
World RGDP p.c. CAGR
2.0 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.65%
0.10% 2.0 3.3 5.4 8.9 14.6 24.0 32.2
0.20% 2.5 4.0 6.6 10.9 17.9 29.3 39.4
World 0.30% 3.0 4.9 8.1 13.3 21.8 35.8 48.0
Population 0.40% 3.7 6.0 9.9 16.3 26.7 43.6 58.6
CAGR 0.50% 4.5 7.4 12.1 19.8 32.5 53.3 71.6
0.60% 5.5 9.0 14.7 24.2 39.7 65.0 87.3
0.70% 6.6 10.9 18.0 29.5 48.4 79.3 106.5
0.80% 8.1 13.3 21.9 36.0 59.0 96.7 129.9
0.90% 9.9 16.3 26.7 43.9 72.0 117.9 158.4
0.94% 10.7 17.6 29.0 47.5 77.9 127.6 171.4
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Here we are simply calculating the growth in the World economy as a multiple of current level. The scenario highlighted
in yellow represents the one reflecting historical growth pattern since near the time of the Industrial Revolution.
RGDP p.c. multiple x Population multiple = World Real GDP multiple. 26.4 x 6.5 = 171.4 times current World Real GDP!
The scenarios highlighted in green represent the few scenarios that may be feasible.

Contemplating 200 year scenarios that may work
7
As specified, the majority of the scenarios would be feasible. Notice, the very low CAGRs considered: < 0.50% for
World RGDP p.c. and between -0.15% to + 0.15% for population growth. These are far lower than reviewed
historical CAGRs since Industrial Revolution.
Scenarios over the next 200 years
World Real GDP per capita World population
CAGR RGDP p.c. Multiple CAGR Pop. In bil. Multiple
0.00% 15,000
$ 1.0 -0.15% 5.7 0.7
0.10% 18,319
$ 1.2 -0.10% 6.3 0.8
0.20% 22,368
$ 1.5 0.00% 7.7 1.0
0.30% 27,307
$ 1.8 0.10% 9.4 1.2
0.40% 33,330
$ 2.2 0.15% 10.4 1.3
Green Zone, Multiple < 3.0 Green Zone, Multiple < 1.5
World Real GDP multiple over 2015-2019 level (estimate)
2.0 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% Scenarios
-0.15% 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 Green zone 22 88%
World -0.10% 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 Other 3 12%
Population 0.00% 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 Total 25 100%
CAGR 0.10% 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7
0.15% 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.0
Green Zone, Multiple > 1.0 < 3.0.
Also, factors constraints in underlying World Real GDP per capita and Wolrd population.
The green zone represents specified
feasible scenarios, including the following
constraints:
a) World Real GDP per capita < 3 times
current level;
b) World population < 1.5 times current
level;
c) World Real GDP > 1.0 < 3.0 times
current level.

Next, looking at 600 years scenarios
8
Scenarios over the next 600 years
World Real GDP per capita World population
CAGR RGDP p.c. Multiple CAGR Pop. In bil. Multiple
0.00% 15,000
$ 1.0 -0.15% 3.1 0.4
0.10% 27,324
$ 1.8 -0.10% 4.2 0.5
0.20% 49,742
$ 3.3 0.00% 7.7 1.0
0.30% 90,501
$ 6.0 0.10% 14.0 1.8
0.40% 164,558
$ 11.0 0.15% 18.9 2.5
Green Zone, Multiple < 3.0 Green Zone, Multiple < 1.5
World Real GDP multiple over 2015-2019 level (estimate)
8.1 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% Scenarios
-0.15% 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.5 Green zone 2 8%
World -0.10% 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.3 6.0 Other 23 92%
Population 0.00% 1.0 1.8 3.3 6.0 11.0 Total 25 100%
CAGR 0.10% 1.8 3.3 6.0 11.0 20.0
0.15% 2.5 4.5 8.2 14.8 27.0
Green Zone, Multiple > 1.0 < 3.0.
Also, factors constraints in underlying World Real GDP per capita and Wolrd population.
Using the same low CAGRs considered over the next 200 years, but extending the horizon to 600 years into the
future, only 2 scenarios out of 25 appear feasible. They are associated with Zero-population growth (CAGR 0.0%),
and close to Zero-RGDP p.c. growth (CAGR ranging from 0.0% to 0.1%).

Where are we? At the second inflection point of an S Curve
9
As reviewed, the World (economy, population) can’t possibly keep
its rate of growth over the next centuries.
The next 200 years growth will have to be flatter vs. what we have
experienced since the Industrial Revolution.
Industrial
Revolution
Industrial
Revolution

A closer look at the past 200 years
10
Within this section we will use the data from the Maddison Group Project (MGP) that discloses very good
estimates of real GDP per capita and population since the Industrial Revolution.
The MGP data, we focus on, is aggregated at a large region-basis. The regions include:
Africa
Asia - East
Asia – Other
Middle East
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Western Other (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United States)*
*We could not find a precise country classification by region even after researching the MGP website, and
contacting staffers at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands who manage the MGP website. This was true
for all regions mentioned above. For instance the segmentation of Asia – East vs. Asia - Other is unknown. The
countries included in Western Other are just speculation on our part.

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Source: Maddison Project Database (MPD) 2020
Since 1820, the World population has increased very rapidly from about 1
billion to 7.7 billion. If we look at 10 year CAGRs, we observe that growth
has pretty much accelerated until 1970. And, it has rapidly declined ever
since. However, the current CAGR at 1.2% is still far higher than the
contemplated feasible scenarios.
Yearly pop. Growth: 1.2%
Years Multiple
200 10.9
300 35.8
400 118.1
500 389.3
A yearly population growth
of 1.2% sustained over
several centuries results in
absurdly high multiple of the
current population level

13
* Western Other includes: Australia, Canada, New
Zealand, US. Again, this is our best guess. The MPD
has not provided any information on specific country
classification by regions.
Different regions have very different growth patterns.
Africa’s population growth has continued accelerating
throughout the reviewed period. This region population
growth is still distant from the second inflection point on
the S Curve.
Meanwhile, Western non-European countries’ growth
pattern has gone in the other direction: a steady
deceleration. This region is clearly getting closer to the
second inflection point on the S Curve.

14
Europe is one of the regions leading into the second
inflection point of the S Curve, whereby population growth
is in general slowing down. If current trends continue,
Europe could reach a steady state of 0% population growth
in the near future.

15
As reviewed, population growth rates have been declining for the past several decades in Europe, and since 1830 for
other Western countries. They are now starting to construct the second inflection point of the S Curve
Focusing on Regions with < 0.5 billion

16
Both Latin America and the Middle East are still experiencing rapid population growth until the mid of the 20th century. In
Latin America, population growth started declining rapidly since the 1970s; and, in the Middle East since the 1990s. We
can expect those respective trends to continue. They are consistent with regions getting closer to the second inflection
point on the S Curve.
Focusing on Regions with population > 0.5 billion < 1.0 billion

17
As mentioned, Africa is still growing rapidly. Meanwhile, the two Asian regions’ respective population growth rate has
declined fairly rapidly since 1970., consistent with regions getting closer to the second inflection point on the S Curve.
Focusing on Regions with population > 1.0 billion

Real GDP per capita section
18

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World Real GDP per capita is still very much on an upward trajectory showing little sign yet of reaching the second
inflection point on the S curve.
Multiple of current RGDP per capita
RGDP p.c. growth p.a.
1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00%
200 20 52 140 369
Years 300 87 380 1,649 7,099
400 386 2,755 19,478 136,424
500 1,710 19,957 230,109 2,621,877
The table to the right discloses how annual RGDP p.c.
growth ranging from 1.5% to 3.% sustained over several
centuries result in absurdly high multiple of current RGDP
p.c. level. Given that, current World RGDP p.c. growth
rate is not sustainable over the coming centuries.

20
Focusing on Regions with < 0.5 billion: RGDP p.c. growth
Western Europe economic growth (as specified) has slowed down since the 1960s. Other non-European Western countries
growth has slowed down since the 1970s. These two regions’ respective economic growth is getting closer to the second
inflection point on the S Curve. Eastern Europe economic growth is still in a volatile catch-up mode and appears distant
from reaching the second inflection point on the S Curve.

21
Focusing on Regions with > 0.5 billion < 1.0 billion: RGDP p.c. growth
Both Latin America and the Middle East are still experiencing rapid economic growth, as specified. Notice the very high
volatility in both time series.

22
Focusing on Regions with > 1.0 billion: RGDP p.c. growth
The three regions in Africa and Asia are still very much on an upward trajectory in terms of economic growth, as
specified.

A closer look since the middle of the 20th century
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Within this section, we have used data at the country level for the past several decades. The original data source
is the World Bank. And, the data extracting platform is FRED.

List of countries reviewed
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GDP GDP Population Population
Rank Country 2020 in $ tril. 2020 bi. Rank
1 US 20.9 0.33 3
2 China 14.7 1.44 1
3 Japan 5.0 0.13 11
4 Germany 3.8 0.08 19
5 UK 2.7 0.07 21
6 India 2.7 1.38 2
7 France 2.6 0.07 22
8 Italy 1.9 0.06 23
9 Canada 1.6 0.04 39
10 Korea 1.6 0.05 28
11 Russia 1.5 0.15 9
12 Australia 1.4 0.03 55
13 Brazil 1.4 0.21 6
14 Spain 1.3 0.05 30
15 Mexico 1.1 0.13 10
16 Indonesia 1.1 0.27 4
65.4 4.48
World 84.5 7.79
Top 16 % of World 77.3% 57.5%
Sources:
a) GDP: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (April 2021)
b) Population: United Nations, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs
We are focusing our analysis on the top 16 countries ranked by
their respective economies’ size. These 16 countries account
for over 73% of the World economy and over 57% of the
World population.
* Whenever we mention Korea, we mean South Korea.

Fertility Rate is an important causal factor in future population growth
26
Fertility Decrease in
Rate population 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
1.0 -52% -3.6% -3.3% -3.0% -2.8% -2.6% -2.4% -2.3%
1.1 -48% -3.2% -2.9% -2.7% -2.5% -2.3% -2.1% -2.0%
1.2 -43% -2.8% -2.5% -2.3% -2.1% -2.0% -1.8% -1.7%
1.3 -38% -2.4% -2.2% -2.0% -1.8% -1.7% -1.6% -1.5%
1.4 -33% -2.0% -1.8% -1.7% -1.5% -1.4% -1.3% -1.3%
1.5 -29% -1.7% -1.5% -1.4% -1.3% -1.2% -1.1% -1.0%
1.6 -24% -1.4% -1.2% -1.1% -1.0% -1.0% -0.9% -0.8%
1.7 -19% -1.1% -1.0% -0.9% -0.8% -0.8% -0.7% -0.7%
1.8 -14% -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%
1.9 -10% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.3% -0.3%
2.0 -5% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
2.1 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Decrease in population per year given different generation length in years
A fertility rate of 1.5, holding everything else constant, entails a drop of a population by:
-[1 – (1.5/2.1)] = - 29% over the next generation.
If we consider that a specific country has a generation length of 30 years, it translates into an annual decrease
of the population of – 1.1%
A country can avoid
this powerful
arithmetic of fertility
rates by allowing for
immigration.
However, immigration
at the World level is
genuinely a zero-sum
game.

27
Focusing on Asian countries: Fertility Rate.
Notice the spectacular drop in fertility rate for China, Indian, Indonesia, and Korea. Korea achieved this
drop without any related policy. Meanwhile, China did it aggressively through its “one-child” policy.
Sources: World Bank, FRED

28
Focusing on Asian countries: Fertility Rate. Continued
Between the mid 70s to 1990 several
countries’ fertility rate dropped
below the replacement rate of 2.1
(horizontal black line). These include
(current fertility rate in parenthesis):
China (1.7), Japan (1.36), Korea
(0.92), and Russia (1.50). Please refer
to the table on slide 26 to grasp the
implication in terms of future
population contractions associated
with such low fertility rates.
Meanwhile, the two other Asian
countries, India and Indonesia, have
experienced a rapid drop in fertility
rate. Their currently fertility rate is
now right at the replacement rate
level. We can expect these declining
fertility rates to continue and drop
below the replacement rates over the
next several decades.

29
Focusing on European countries: Fertility Rate.
Between 1960 and 1980, all 5 major
European countries have fallen much
below the replacement rate (2.1).
France (1.87)
Germany (1.54)
Italy (1.27)
Spain (1.24)
UK (1.65)
Most of these countries are still
sustaining population levels through
fairly robust immigration. However, the
latter is becoming an increasingly
contentious issue in domestic politics.

30
Focusing on European countries: Fertility Rate. Continued.
This graph facilitates the demarcation
at which date a specific country’s
fertility rate dropped below 2.1.
As mentioned, several countries
(Spain, and Italy) have fertility rates
below 1.5. The latter entails a rapid
drop in population (please refer to
table on slide 26).

31
Focusing on Other Countries: Fertility Rate
Notice the spectacular decrease in fertility
rates in Brazil (current level 1.72) and Mexico
(currently at replacement level) .
The fertility rate curves for Australia (current
level 1.66), Canada (1.47), and the US (1.71)
very much track each other. And, they look
somewhat similar to the European countries
(at a slightly higher level).
All trends are consistent with countries
getting closer to the second inflection point
on the S curve.

32
Focusing on Other Countries: Fertility Rate. Continued
Just another look at the same data
as the previous slide.
Again, the rapid drop in fertility in
both Brazil and Mexico is
spectacular.

Population Section
33
Multiple of current population level
Population growth p.a.
0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%
200 1.6 2.7 4.5 7.3
Years 300 2.1 4.5 9.4 19.8
400 2.7 7.4 19.9 53.5
500 3.5 12.1 41.9 144.8
The table illustrates that even slow yearly population growth rates are not sustainable over longer periods. As
shown, a 1% annual growth rate in World population over 500 years would result in a population that is 145 times
larger than current levels. Even reducing the annual growth rate to only 0.25% still results in a population that is 3.5
times larger than current level.

34
All reviewed Asian countries have experienced a rapid decline in population growth since 1970. Notice how China’s assertive
“1-child” policy is not that distinguishable in the data. Granted, on a stand-alone basis it was most successful. But, it’s
results our pretty much identical to Korea who achieved the same decline in population growth without such a ”1-child’
policy. Japan’s population has started to shrink for the past several years. Russia’s population growth rate has averaged
close to Zero or less since 2000.

35
European countries’ populations current growth rates are typically under 0.5%. The exception is the UK that has
experienced a mild rebound since the mid 1980s. Yet, it remains much under 1%.
European countries have experienced much immigration from Turkey, the Middle East, and North Africa. The latter has
compensated for this same European countries fertility rates that are much below replacement rates.

36
The other countries reviewed above also experienced a fairly rapid drop in population growth rate since 1970. One exception
is Australia, as its population growth rate has actually increased since 2000. This is due to immigration into Australia that
more than compensated for its fertility rate that has been below replacement rate since around 2008.

Constant GDP per capita section
37
Multiple of current Constant GDP per capita level
Constant GDP p.c. growth p.a.
0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%
200 1.6 2.7 4.5 7.3
Years 300 2.1 4.5 9.4 19.8
400 2.7 7.4 19.9 53.5
500 3.5 12.1 41.9 144.8
The table illustrates that even slow Constant GDP per capita growth rates are not sustainable over longer periods. As
shown, a 1% annual growth rate in such a measure over 500 years would result in a Constant GDP p.c. that is 145
times larger than current levels. Even reducing this annual growth rate to only 0.25% still results in a Constant GDP
p.c. that is 3.5 times larger than current level.

38
Flat line reflects missing data for
Russia
One of the main themes, is China’s rapid decline in Constant GDP
per capita growth during the years 2000s from 10% down to 6%
This downward trend is most likely to continue as even a 6%
growth rate remains extraordinarily high; and, is clearly not
sustainable over the long term.
Flat line reflects missing data for Russia

39
Flat line reflects
missing data for
Germany
All European countries shown above have experienced a rapid decline in Constant GDP p.c. growth rate. At the present,
they are now mainly around the 1% p.a. growth level. While Italy’s respective growth rate is currently already negative.
The above is typical of countries that are heading into the second inflection point on the S Curve.

40
Flat line reflects missing data for Canada
Similar trend as for the European countries mentioned on the previous slide. However, overall recent growth rates are
typically a little bit higher and converge around 1.5% p.a. (vs. 1.0% for the European countries).
Notice how Brazil’s respective growth on this count has turned negative, similar to Italy among the European
countries.
Flat line reflects missing data for Canada

Real GDP section
41
Multiple of current Real GDP level
Real GDP growth p.a.
0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%
200 1.6 2.7 4.5 7.3
Years 300 2.1 4.5 9.4 19.8
400 2.7 7.4 19.9 53.5
500 3.5 12.1 41.9 144.8
The table illustrates that even slow Real GDP growth rates are not sustainable over longer periods. As shown, a 1%
annual growth rate in such a measure over 500 years would result in a Real GDP that is 145 times larger than current
levels. Even reducing this annual growth rate to only 0.25% still results in a Real GDP that is 3.5 times larger than
current level.

42
Notice the abrupt drop in economic growth in:
a) China since 2010;
b) Russia since 2008;
c) Japan since 1970;
d) Korea since 1990.
This decline in economic growth is likely to continue and is consistent with countries’ economies entering the second
inflection point of the S curve.

43
All shown European countries have shown a secular decline in economic growth. They are now typically growing around
1.25% per year, except for Italy that is very close to remaining flat around 0%.
The above is consistent with countries economies entering the second inflection point of the S curve.

44
Notice the abrupt drop in economic growth in:
a) Brazil since 1980;
b) Mexico since 1982;
c) Australia since 1972;
d) Korea since 1990.
This decline in economic growth is likely to continue and is consistent with countries’ economies entering the second
inflection point of the S curve.
Sources: World Bank, FREDS

46
Western Europe, Japan, Russia, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and US are a bit more
advanced on the second inflection point on the S Curve than Korea and China, and even
more so than India and Indonesia. The latter have much room to grow at a relatively
rapid pace for several decades.

47
All the countries on the flat portion of the second inflection point on the S Curve
already have fertility rates much below replacement rate.

Fertility Rates… Maybe there are on an inverted S Curve
48
Fertility rates have dropped rapidly. And, they are reaching an asymptotic minimum at the bottom of the S Curve
instead of at the top. The only limitation of this inverted S Curve is that it does not give you a representation of
World history with the first upward inflection point of a regular S Curve coinciding with the Industrial Revolution.

49
The positioning of the countries on the regular S Curves on different dimensions is relatively similar. The
saying “Demography is Destiny” has some truth to it. With declining fertility rates comes slower population
and economic growth.

Considerations
50
The main insight from this study is very simple. The World
population and economy can not grow forever. Even very
small annual growth rates in either population or economy
result in absurdly high multiples of current levels when
sustained over several centuries (see table to the right).
Multiple of current Real GDP level
Real GDP growth p.a.
0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%
200 1.6 2.7 4.5 7.3
Years 300 2.1 4.5 9.4 19.8
400 2.7 7.4 19.9 53.5
500 3.5 12.1 41.9 144.8
To remain a viable World, it will have to reach an equilibrium whereby it will stop growing within the next few centuries.
This is so we can still remain somewhat “free range” humans and not run out of resources including potable water,
arable land, energy, minerals, and livable space.
A capitalist economy may well survive this transition towards a zero-growth equilibrium. Business ownership, retention
of earnings may remain strong behavioral incentives that are competitive vs. allocation of resources through any type of
central planning.
A business can remain perfectly viable through a steady-state, zero-growth equilibrium. Many small to mid-size
businesses probably already operate in that mode throughout much of the World.
But, how about the stock market? Without growth, the stock market could remain at a static value of let’s say 1 times
GDP. And, since GDP is not growing, the stock market would also not grow. Would such a stock market be viable?
At the company-stock level, the stock market would have become a zero-sum game. If a company is growing, other
companies would contract because the overall economic pie is not growing (again, refer to table above).

Considerations, continued
51
Would a zero-sum game stock market be viable?
It is a challenging question. But, nowadays we have many thriving large markets that are zero-sum
games. These include:
a) All the derivatives, options, and futures markets, measured in tens of $trillion that are far larger
than the stock markets;
b) Sports betting;
c) Gambling at casinos; and
d) Prediction markets.
Could the stock market survive and join that list of thriving zero-sum games?
In essence, the stock market may become a bet on a company to win a race measured in market shares.
And, that may not be that different than betting on a horse or a football team. Already, this framework
may be quite representative of some of the behavioral elements among investors (fast trading retail
investors in particular).

52
We know the next 200 years will be very different from the last 200 years
As reviewed throughout this study, the growth rates
over the past 200 years are not sustainable going
forward. By, 2220 or so, the World population will not
increase by 8 x to over 60 billion. And, Real GDP per
capita will not increase by close to 15 x.

What the past and next few centuries may look like
53
The above could reflect growth in overall World GDP or population. The Industrial Revolution is at the first inflection point of
the S Curve. The Present is at the second point. Over the next centuries, World GDP and population levels may decline a bit
towards a sustainable Equilibrium (following the smaller inverted S Curve). Over the following centuries, World GDP and
population levels may oscillate up and down around the Equilibrium. Notice that throughout this entire path, the World
could very well maintain current Real GDP per capita level.

Special Appendix Section:
Least Developed Countries
54
Following the World Bank’s country
classification, the least developed
countries include the ones in the table to
the right. They are primarily in Africa
and the Middle East.
Notice that Korea, Democratic People’s
Republic means North Korea. Earlier in our
study, Korea always meant South Korea.

Fertility Rate
55
Dramatic drop in fertility rate from close to 7 in the 1970s to 4.0 currently. This is still a very high fertility rate that,
holding everything else constant, would suggest a doubling of the population every generation. We may expect this
declining trend to continue. And, over the next century it is not unlikely that it may drop closer to replacement rate.

Fertility Rate comparison
56
Many of the 16 countries we reviewed had very
high fertility rates in line with the least developed
countries including: China, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Brazil, Mexico. Invariably, fertility rates plummeted
from the 1970s to the present when they are near
or below replacement rate. Given that, we expect
the fertility rate of least developed countries
continue dropping going forward.

Population &
Population Growth
57
These countries have experienced an
extraordinary growth in population from about
250 million in 1960 to 1.1 billion in 2020. This
growth is clearly not sustainable, especially
given the limited natural resource (arable land,
water, etc.) and infrastructure constraints.
On a positive note, the yearly population
growth has steadily declined from close to
2.8% in the early 1990s to close to 2.3% in
2020. Yet, the current population growth rate
is still very fast as it entails a population that
would double every 31 years (using rule of
72). This estimate is directionally convergent
with the still high fertility rate mentioned on
the previous slide.

Population Growth comparison
58
Many of the 16 countries we reviewed had very
high population growth rates in line with the least
developed countries including: China, India,
Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, Mexico. Invariably, growth
rates plummeted from the 1970s to the present.
Given that, we expect the population growth rates
of least developed countries continue dropping
going forward.

Constant GDP per capita (in
2010 $ level & Growth
59
Notice the very rapid growth in constant GDP p.c.
from $495 in 1994 to $826 in 2010. Current level
in 2020 is about $1,000. Within the 16 countries
we reviewed earlier, several ones crossed that
level of constant GDP p.c. a few years back,
including:
China (in 1993)
India (2005)
Indonesia (1977)
Korea (1963)
Yearly constant GDP p.c. growth is very volatile
and often pretty high. This region is clearly in a
catch-up mode with much room for continued
rapid economic growth. However, since 2010
economic growth has slowed down.

Infant Mortality Rate
60
Great progress on this count. Infant mortality rate has dropped from 109 per 1,000 in 1990 to 45 in 2020.
This should contribute to a continuing decline in fertility rates and population growth.

Literacy Rate
61
Great progress on this count too with literacy rate rising from 40% in 1980 to 65% in 2020.

… very positive trends in female education
throughout the least developed countries …
62
The female/male ratio in education enrollment at all levels is now approaching parity
(1.0). See the next three slides with rapidly upward trends over the past few decades
in all three levels of education.

Primary Education enrollment ratio Female/Male
63

Secondary Education enrollment ratio Female/Male
64

Tertiary Education enrollment ratio Female/Male
65

Net Migration
66
The above shows how the least developed countries allow some of the developed ones to still maintain or grow
their population; despite the latter experiencing birth rates much below replacement rate.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) development path
67
Based on the reviewed trends,
we can expect LDCs population
growth rate to continue slowing
down due to declining fertility
rate. In turn the latter is due to
declining infant mortality and
rising female education.
We can expect LDCs’ economic
growth to continue or even
accelerate for several decades
due to rising literacy and rising
female education. Reaching the
second inflection point on the S
Curve seems still distant (maybe a
century out).

The next 200 years and beyond

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