This study compares Japan vs. the US on numerous dimensions including demographics (including health and education), and economics (including monetary and fiscal policies). This is to observe when Japan and the US trends are likely to converge over time.
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
This study uncovers 11 international stock markets that are already running into existing and prospective demographic and economic growth constraints. This study evaluates their respective fragile long term viability and the implications this has for the investors in such countries.
This study consist in:
1) First, reviewing the historical data of the World population and economic growth over the past several centuries;
2) Second, envisioning what our future over the next several centuries may look like, while assessing scenarios feasibility; and
3) Looking at recent trends over the past several decades.
This is a study attempting to statistically measure the impact of Government policies on the economy and the stock market. The “causal” Government policies considered will include:
Fiscal Policy, entailing Budget Deficit spending;
Monetary Policy with the Federal Reserve managing the Federal Funds rate; and
Monetary Policy with the Federal Reserve conducting large purchases of securities (Treasuries, MBS);
The dependent or impacted macroeconomic variables affected by the above Government policies will include:
The overall economy (RGDP);
Inflation (CPI);
Unemployment Rate; and
Stock market.
The Prospect for Global Economic Recovery and where Bangladesh stands on the ...Md. Tanzirul Amin
The following article was written by me, and was published in the Economic Trends section of the Keystone Quarterly Review (Volume-31) on November 30, 2020: https://lnkd.in/g9nGxzn
The article covers the prospect for recovery of the global economy, and how Bangladesh might perform in its journey across the recovery curve. Moreover, major signs of potential economic recovery and shapes of projected recovery curves are discussed.
Quarterly report Q1 perspectives global and spanish economy January 2019Círculo de Empresarios
.Overview of the economic situation Q1-2019
Despite being in a favourable economic cycle (global growth still above 3%), GDP estimates are being revised downwards (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.).
The striking main causes: economic cycle phase change, trade slowdown, Trump’s protectionism, monetary policy normalisation, political tensions stemming from populism (Brexit, Italy, etc.) and worse economic expectations in China and Germany.
The growth of world GDP exhibits less synchronisation than in January 2018. In advanced economies, the US expands at rates above 2%, supported by fiscal stimuli and an unemployment rate at record lows. In contrast, the EU loses strength due to the uncertainty associated with Brexit & Italy and the consequences of the trade war having a greater impact on the German external sector.
In emerging markets, on the one hand, given their high levels of debt, the evolution of their growth and inflation rates depend on the rise in US interest rates and the unfolding of oil prices. On the other hand, the financial instability resulting from the near end of the economic cycle and lower prospects for the growth in corporate profits in 2019 worry the financial markets, manifested through an increase in volatility.
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
This study uncovers 11 international stock markets that are already running into existing and prospective demographic and economic growth constraints. This study evaluates their respective fragile long term viability and the implications this has for the investors in such countries.
This study consist in:
1) First, reviewing the historical data of the World population and economic growth over the past several centuries;
2) Second, envisioning what our future over the next several centuries may look like, while assessing scenarios feasibility; and
3) Looking at recent trends over the past several decades.
This is a study attempting to statistically measure the impact of Government policies on the economy and the stock market. The “causal” Government policies considered will include:
Fiscal Policy, entailing Budget Deficit spending;
Monetary Policy with the Federal Reserve managing the Federal Funds rate; and
Monetary Policy with the Federal Reserve conducting large purchases of securities (Treasuries, MBS);
The dependent or impacted macroeconomic variables affected by the above Government policies will include:
The overall economy (RGDP);
Inflation (CPI);
Unemployment Rate; and
Stock market.
The Prospect for Global Economic Recovery and where Bangladesh stands on the ...Md. Tanzirul Amin
The following article was written by me, and was published in the Economic Trends section of the Keystone Quarterly Review (Volume-31) on November 30, 2020: https://lnkd.in/g9nGxzn
The article covers the prospect for recovery of the global economy, and how Bangladesh might perform in its journey across the recovery curve. Moreover, major signs of potential economic recovery and shapes of projected recovery curves are discussed.
Quarterly report Q1 perspectives global and spanish economy January 2019Círculo de Empresarios
.Overview of the economic situation Q1-2019
Despite being in a favourable economic cycle (global growth still above 3%), GDP estimates are being revised downwards (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.).
The striking main causes: economic cycle phase change, trade slowdown, Trump’s protectionism, monetary policy normalisation, political tensions stemming from populism (Brexit, Italy, etc.) and worse economic expectations in China and Germany.
The growth of world GDP exhibits less synchronisation than in January 2018. In advanced economies, the US expands at rates above 2%, supported by fiscal stimuli and an unemployment rate at record lows. In contrast, the EU loses strength due to the uncertainty associated with Brexit & Italy and the consequences of the trade war having a greater impact on the German external sector.
In emerging markets, on the one hand, given their high levels of debt, the evolution of their growth and inflation rates depend on the rise in US interest rates and the unfolding of oil prices. On the other hand, the financial instability resulting from the near end of the economic cycle and lower prospects for the growth in corporate profits in 2019 worry the financial markets, manifested through an increase in volatility.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
This report features world capital market performance and a
timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset
classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified
portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which over-corrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which overcorrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
The macroeconomic outlook following the COVID-19 pandemic is gloomy, ranging between 3-10% in GDP decline for 2020. Recovery will depend heavily on how fast consumer confidence, employment and global trade can rebound. As a business leader, understanding how the macro outlook will impact your business is critical – especially if you are exposed to export markets.
In this short webinar, we will present the latest views on both global and Scandinavian macroeconomic outlooks, including scenarios to consider in the short, mid and long term, as well as a practical macro toolkit for evaluating your company’s exposure to key economic factors.
Economic situation summary
The uncertainty surrounding the spread of Covid 19 is significantly conditioning economic agents’ expectations for the coming years In this context, most international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) project a contraction of GDP above 3 yearly for 2020 and warn of risks such as rising unemployment and a possible spike in inflation above 2 in some economies, and a future increase of debt as a result of the fiscal and monetary stimulus packages That said, these organizations also point out that without these expansionary measures, the economic recession would have been a lot worse.
In developed countries the gradual reactivation of the economy began in May with the easing of movement restrictions to contain the spread of the virus In the US the Fed improved its growth forecasts, envisioning a smaller decrease in GDP 3 4 yearly vs 6 5 previously), and revised its monetary policy goals with a more direct monitoring on the job creation objective In the Eurozone economic sentiment improved as the ECB continued its monetary stimulus plan, and the European Commission finalized details of a European recovery fund of 750 000 million.
In most emerging markets the spread of the virus continues to lower the expectations of economic agents, in some cases intensifying the structural risks to these economies (debt sustainability, unemployment In India and Brazil two of the countries most affected by the pandemic, GDP is forecast to contract in 2020 by 10 2 and 6 5 yearly and respectively In China the curve representing new cases seems to be under control, and economic activity has rebounded strongly in the second half of 2020 creating a V shaped recovery.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
This report features world capital market performance and a
timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset
classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified
portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which over-corrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which overcorrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
The macroeconomic outlook following the COVID-19 pandemic is gloomy, ranging between 3-10% in GDP decline for 2020. Recovery will depend heavily on how fast consumer confidence, employment and global trade can rebound. As a business leader, understanding how the macro outlook will impact your business is critical – especially if you are exposed to export markets.
In this short webinar, we will present the latest views on both global and Scandinavian macroeconomic outlooks, including scenarios to consider in the short, mid and long term, as well as a practical macro toolkit for evaluating your company’s exposure to key economic factors.
Economic situation summary
The uncertainty surrounding the spread of Covid 19 is significantly conditioning economic agents’ expectations for the coming years In this context, most international organizations (the IMF, OECD, World Bank and European Commission) project a contraction of GDP above 3 yearly for 2020 and warn of risks such as rising unemployment and a possible spike in inflation above 2 in some economies, and a future increase of debt as a result of the fiscal and monetary stimulus packages That said, these organizations also point out that without these expansionary measures, the economic recession would have been a lot worse.
In developed countries the gradual reactivation of the economy began in May with the easing of movement restrictions to contain the spread of the virus In the US the Fed improved its growth forecasts, envisioning a smaller decrease in GDP 3 4 yearly vs 6 5 previously), and revised its monetary policy goals with a more direct monitoring on the job creation objective In the Eurozone economic sentiment improved as the ECB continued its monetary stimulus plan, and the European Commission finalized details of a European recovery fund of 750 000 million.
In most emerging markets the spread of the virus continues to lower the expectations of economic agents, in some cases intensifying the structural risks to these economies (debt sustainability, unemployment In India and Brazil two of the countries most affected by the pandemic, GDP is forecast to contract in 2020 by 10 2 and 6 5 yearly and respectively In China the curve representing new cases seems to be under control, and economic activity has rebounded strongly in the second half of 2020 creating a V shaped recovery.
This report gives a complete overview of the reasons behind mounting debt of japan and the political and financial reforms in the country to counter the debt problem.
With 50% of their portfolios in cash and less than 10% in equities, the asset allocation of Japanese households suits a deflationary environment, but this will become costly to households in real terms in an inflationary environment.
This allocation could change and provide a tailwind for the stock market. However, it will be a gradual shift that must be accompanied by a change in Japanese Householders’ current attitudes towards equities.
Higher demand for equities in the face of this changing government and social environment could mean that Investors who take a long-term view could be richly rewarded because of increased money flow into this aspect of the Japanese economy.
Ziad Abdelnour, Lebanese American author, trader and financier is President & CEO of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., a “private family office” that backs talented operating executives in growing their companies both organically and through acquisitions and trades physical commodities.
The Impact of High Government Debt on the Country’s Economic Growth: An Empir...Dr. Kelly YiYu Lin
Japan has been in a recession for more than two decades. During the recessionary period, the country has faced significant structural challenges, such as the demographic problem, the decline in its labor force and a deflationary trend, along with low nominal interest rates. The Japanese government implemented multiple fiscal stimulus packages; however, the effectiveness of these packages on economic recovery is limited. This paper applies ordinary least squares (OLS) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methodologies to investigate what type of exogenous driving forces would assist decision-makers in implementing proactive policies to efficiently restore Japan’s economy to a steady state and whether and to what extent Japan’s government debt affects its GDP.
Module 2 Lecture - GDP A Measure Of Total Production And Income (.docxkendalfarrier
Module 2 Lecture - GDP: A Measure Of Total Production And Income (cont'd)-2
Using Real GDP To Measure Our Standard of Living
A common method for measuring the standard of living in the US involves comparing per capita Real GDP (that’ total gross domestic product divided by the population) from the present to some pre-determined past year. Table 14.4, pg. 383 shows the per person Real GDP from 2016 as compared to the per person Real GDP in 1960. From looking at that table it appears the US has done very well, increasing from $17,217 per person in 1960 to $56,200 per person in 2016. This isn’t the whole story, however.
Potential GDP
Potential GDP is the level of real GDP per person when all factors of production (land, labor, capital, entrepreneurship) have been utilized to their fullest. This would be the productivity goal of the US economy. If some of these factors are underutilized or underemployed, real GDP is producing below its potential. Think of the loss of productivity with high rates of unemployment or large tracts of land that are used only occasionally (football and baseball stadiums or public schools which lie vacant during 3 months of vacations). The only way to get a true look at how well the US economy is doing is to look at its production levels in past years and compare them with the full potential of production of which the US economy is capable. Figure 14.3, pg. 384 which I’ve reproduced for you below, gives us a pretty clear picture of how well the US has achieved its production potential since 1960.
Follow the red line upward from 1960 and especially note how much it lies above or below the black line. The red line represents Real GDP per person. The black line represents the actual potential of productive output per person.
Note that the red line rises above potential from 1960 to about 1970. The potential productive output per person was actually rising at about 2.8% per year.
Since 1970 the red line is either on or well below the black line (except for two minor rises). Real GDP per person has fallen below the economy’s potential. It actually shows a growth rate of only about 1.9% a year since 1970. This means that the economy’s POTENTIAL GDP has fallen well below that of 1960.
If the economy had kept up with the 1960’s rate of growth in production it would mean a cumulative effect (from 1960 to 2013) of about $406,000 added income/productivity per person. This is one of the more compelling reasons behind the emphasis on not just per capita (per person) Real GDP but also its comparison to POTENTIAL GDP. Wouldn’t it have been nice to have an extra $400,000 over a span of 40 years (1970-2010)? That’s an extra $10,000 a year; serious added income.
Why Does Real GDP (levels of production and income) Increase Positively Some Years And Then Become Negative In Other Years?
The Business Cycle: this is a term used to describe fluctuations in economic activity. In a sense, it measures the economic growth during the expa.
The UK's economy at a glance (1990-2010) in comparison with the U.S and a developing country, Philippines.
The 6 major macroeconomic issues that UK is facing today and their rankings (based on their priority) are: GDP/PPP, Productivity, Recessions and Expansion, Unemployment, Inflation and Economic interdependence.
Sacramento's population projections for the State of California are already 1.4 million too high only 3 years into the forecast by 2023. The reason is Sacramento's unrealistic migration assumption. This analysis tests in detail how and why this projection went so wrong.
This study analyzes the temperature history of 24 American cities going back to 1895. Using a LOESS model, it forecasts prospective temperature increases over the next 40 years and out to 2100. And, it compares the 2100 forecast with the NOAA model(s). This comparison uncovers serious deficiencies within the NOAA model(s), as it does not fit the historical data well; and it does not differentiate much forecasts between various cities.
Compact Letter Display (CLD). How it worksGaetan Lion
Compact Letter Display (CLD) renders ANOVA & Tukey HSD testing a lot easier to interpret. It readily ranks and differentiate the tested variables. With CLD you can readily identify the variables that are statistically dissimilar vs. the ones that are similar.
This study compares the benefits and the funding for CalPERS pensions vs. Social Security. It also looks in more detail on the financial burden of CalPERS pensions on the Marin Municipal Water District.
This presentation includes two explanatory models to attempt to predict recessions. The first one is a logistic regression. The second one is a deep neural network (DNN). Both use the same set of independent variables: the velocity of money, inflation, the yield curve, and the stock market. As usual, the DNN fits the historical data a bit better than the simpler logistic regression. But, when it comes to testing or predicting, both models are pretty much even.
Objective:
Studying trends in US inequality along several social dimensions including education, ethnicity, percentiles, and work status. We don’t explore gender because it is not disaggregated within the mentioned data that focuses on families (fairly similar to households).
Data source:
US Government Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) data. The SCF aggregates financial data on US families every three years. And, it discloses a time series from 1989 to 2019.
The model development two objectives are:
1) To explain home prices using demographic explanatory variables; and
2) To benchmark the accuracy of OLS regressions vs. DNN models.
For home prices, we used county level data from Zillow. For the explanatory variables, we used data from GEOFRED.
This analysis focuses on population aging, population age categories in % (age pyramids), and overall population growth. It looks at various geographic units (countries, continents, regions, World) from 1950 to the Present (2019 & 2020). And, it looks at projections out to 2100.
Africa is an outlier to the overall global aging; its population growth (historical & projected) is far faster than for other major regions.
We are going to analyze several of the major cryptocurrencies as an asset class. And, we are going to address several related questions:
Do they provide diversification benefits relative to the stock market (S&P 500)?
How do their diversification benefits compare with Gold’s diversification benefit vs. the stock market?
Do cryptocurrencies provide diversification benefits when you really need it… during market downturns?
Are cryptocurrencies truly “digital Gold”? Do they behave in a similar way given that their supply is constrained (supposedly in a similar way as Gold is)?
We will test whether :
a) Sequential Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can predict the stock market (S&P 500) better than OLS regression;
b) DNNs using smooth Rectified Linear activation functions perform better than the ones using Sigmoid (Logit) activation functions.
Can Treasury Inflation Protected Securities predict Inflation?Gaetan Lion
We look at the spread between Treasuries and TIPS to figure out how effective such observations were in predicting actual inflation several years down the road.
This analysis focuses on measures much beyond PE ratios. And, it concludes that the Stock Market is actually really cheap vs. bonds. But, it appears quite overvalued when focusing on inflation measures.
The relationship between the Stock Market and Interest RatesGaetan Lion
This is a study of the relationship between the Stock Market and Interest Rates. We review how the Stock Market has reacted when interest rates rise. We also factor the influence of other macroeconomics variables.
This is a study using historical data and forecasts of life expectancy for several countries. The data and forecasts come from the UN - Population Division. While the historical data is most interesting, the forecasts are highly optimistic as they project a linear trend way into the future. Meanwhile, those forecasts should have followed a much more realistic logarithmic curve reflecting slower increase in life expectancy as the life expectancy rises.
This study answers three questions:
1) Does it make a difference whether you standardize your variables before running your model or standardize the regression coefficients after you run your model?
2) Does the scale of the respective original non-standardized variables affect the resulting standardized coefficients?
3) Does using non-standardized variables vs. standardized variables have an impact when conducting regularization (Ridge Regression, LASSO)?
This analysis compares his track record vs. Manning, Montana, Marino, Brees, Favre, and Elway. At the end of this analysis, it makes extensive use of the binomial distribution to figure out how much of their respective track records are due to randomness vs. skills.
Regularization why you should avoid themGaetan Lion
Regularization models are supposed to reduce model over-fitting and improve forecasting accuracy. Very often they do just the opposite: increase model under-fitting, and decrease model forecasting accuracy. This study explains how Regularization models often fail, and how to resolve model issues with far simpler and more robust methods.
This study reviews the increasing prevalence of 3-shot points within the NBA. It also compares the record of the 5 top players in NBA history in 3-pt shots. It also considers how many good years left Curry may have.
Climate change model forecast global temperature out to 2100Gaetan Lion
This study is leveraging a VAR model introduced in an earlier presentation to forecast global temperature out to 2100, and assess how likely are we to keep such temperatures at or under the + 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
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1. Japan’s Present = US Future?
To figure out where the US is heading in terms of economic & demographic growth,
and Government policies it is informative to look at the contemporary situation in
Japan. At times, the relevant trends do appear to converge with a lag (US lagging
behind Japan).
In other areas such as health and education, the two countries are very divergent.
Gaetan Lion, November 16, 2021
3. Notice that both countries’
fertility rate has been much
below replacement rate (green
line at 2.1 child per woman) for
several years for the US and
several decades for Japan.
The US fertility rate at 1.71 in
2019 is very close to Japan at
1.72 back in 1986.
Japan’s fertility rate in 2019 is
1.36.
The US fertility rate has dropped
from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.71 in 2019.
If current trend continues, the
U.S. fertility rate could very well
reach Japan’s current level within
a couple of decades.
Source: World Bank
3
US
Japan
4. The US population growth rate in 2020 based
on a 10 year CAGR was 0.8%; the same as
Japan was in 1985.
Japan’s population growth rate, as specified,
was flat starting in 2012 and became negative
in 2016.
The US population growth rate, as specified
was 1.6% in 2001 and 0.8% in 2020.
Source: World Bank
4
US
Japan
5. Old Age Dependency Ratio (> 64/15-64)
5
Japan’s society has aged very rapidly since the early 1980s. The US appears to be on a similar aging path around
2010. And, the US aging trend as defined by this Old Age Dependency Ratio is accelerating. By mid- or late-
century, the US Old Age Dependency Ratio may well approach Japan’s current levels.
Japan
US
Gray areas denote US recessions
6. Age Dependency Ratio ( < 15 + > 64)/(15 – 64)
6
The current Age Dependency Ratio (< 15 + > 64)/(15 – 64) is around 55% for the US and 70% for Japan. The US mentioned
ratio is expected to reach Japan’s current level by 2070, according to the United Nations – Population Division.
US
Japan
7. 7
Population by Age Group
Looking at population by age group over time, the US population age group mix in 2020 is similar to Japan’s in mid 90s (red
vertical dashed line) . Japan’s population aging after the mid 90s accelerated (mixture of rising life span, declining fertility
rate). We can expect the US population to continue aging, but not as rapidly as Japan because of declining US health trends
(rising BMI, etc.) and the US higher net immigration rate.
US Japan
8. Life Expectancy
8
Japan
US
In 1965, both countries had a life expectancy of 70 years. By 2019, Japan’s life expectancy had risen to 84.35
years and the US to 78.78 years (same as Japan in 1989).
Gray areas denote US recessions
9. Population growth projections
9
Japan
US
Population projections reflect the impact of ongoing population aging, lower fertility rates, and differential in net migration
rates. In 2020, Japan’s population has already peaked and is starting to decline. Notice the already very rapid decline in
Japan’s youth population (< 15, and < 5). For the US, the slow down in population growth is not that pronounced. Out to
2100, the US population is still expecting to continue rising, albeit at a much lower speed. Notice the rather flat trend in US
youth population growth.
10. Net migration
10
Japan
US
The main reason the US population growth is not slowing down as rapidly as Japan’s is the US far higher net migration. Net
migration to the US amounts to around 5 million individuals coming into the country every year vs only 500,000 for Japan.
This corresponds to a boost in yearly population growth of about 1.5% for the US vs. only 0.4% for Japan.
Gray areas denote US recessions
11. 11
Population growth is result of fertility rate
and net migration rate
Combining a fertility rate of 1.4 with a net positive migration
per annum of 0.5%, assuming a generation has a length of 30
years, results in a yearly change in population of – 0.8%. That
is pretty much where Japan is heading (red cell). The US
situation is associated with a fertility rate of 1.7 with a net
positive migration of 1.5% resulting in a yearly change in
population of + 0.8%.
If we assume the generation length to be 25 years. The
mentioned yearly change in population decreases to – 1.1%
for Japan and + 0.6% for the US.
This framework pretty much explains the respective
population projections shown earlier.
13. The explanatory commentary for this slide is very
similar to the one on the previous slide.
The main difference is that the US economic growth
is still quite a bit faster than Japan’s. And, this is due
to the US population growth rate being higher than
Japan’s because of the the US much higher positive
net immigration.
As the US population growth rate keeps on
declining, its economic growth rate will also decline.
However, it may always lag behind the steeper
decline in Japan’s economic growth rate.
13
Source: World Bank, OECD
Japan
US
15. Investment/GDP
15
The two measures are not entirely comparable. And, the data for Japan was unavailable after 2010. Over the reviewed
years, accepting the data caveats it appears that Japan’s investment to GDP was much higher than in the US. I
understand that in more recent years, this gap has narrowed materially.
US
Japan
Gray areas denote US recessions
17. 17
US
Japan
Growth rate of real
GDP per employed
person is again
different between the
two countries. Over
the reviewed period,
the Japanese measure
is far more volatile.
It is not unlikely that in
the near future, the
two countries will
converge somewhat
on such measures.
18. Labor Productivity
18
Japan
US
The two countries’ respective changes in labor productivity are different. At times, the two time series seem
negatively correlated. Nevertheless, notice how during US recessions (gray areas), Japan’s labor productivity drops a
lot more than the US. This is especially the case during the three most recent recessions.
Gray areas denote US recessions
20. Source: World Bank, OECD
Both countries have experienced a long term decline in
constant GDP per capita growth rate.
Japan’s decline has been more pronounced because in
the early years, Japan was still in a post WWII catch-up
economic boom mode, which phased out over time.
Additionally, Japan experienced the pop of the Japan’s
Bubble (stock market and real estate) in the late 1980s
to early 1990s which further accelerated the decline in
constant GDP per capita growth rate.
As shown, the current respective growth rates of both
countries have already converged much after the Great
Recession. The US mentioned growth rate is only
marginally higher than Japan’s.
20
US
Japan
21. 21
Source: International Federation of Robotics
Japan is one of the World leaders in robotization. Notice
that its number of robots installed per 10,000 employees is
close to 60% greater than in the US.
Between 217 and 2019, Japan has increased its robot
installation by 18% compared to 14% for the US.
Robotization is a viable way for Japan to partly overcome its
prospective decline in labor force over the next several
decades. And, it may contribute to Japan’s GDP per capita
growth.
22. RGDP & RGDP p.c. CAGR forecasts over 2020 – 2060
22
US GDP is anticipated to grow much faster than
Japan because of much faster population
growth due to its higher net migration rate that
compensates for a fertility rate much below
replacement rate.
When scaling economic growth on a per capita
basis, Japan is expected to grow faster than the
US. This is due to Japan’s decreasing population
(lowering the denominator) and potentially its
higher level of robotization.
24. 24
The Federal Reserve Bank Quantitative Easing (QE)
activity whereby the Fed buys a huge amount of
securities (Treasuries, MBS) to inject liquidity in the
financial system, lower long term interest rates, and
stimulate the economy is a very recent phenomenon.
Between 1970 and the early 2000s, the Fed had
managed the economy without any QE activity. And,
the Fed’s balance sheet remained steadily between
5% to 7% of GDP (upper chart). Over this period, the
US economy had experienced numerous severe
downturns associated with several oil shocks,
stagflation, Y2K, etc. (see lower chart gray areas).
Starting with the Great Recession in late 2007, the
Fed implemented massive QE activity on an
unprecedented scale. During the Great Recession,
the mentioned QE activities caused the Fed’s balance
sheet to nearly triple from just above 5% to over 15%
of GDP. During the COVID Recession, the Fed
abruptly increased its balance sheet (through QE
activities) from 20% to over 35% of GDP.
Gray areas denote US recessions
25. QE Activity. Japan vs. US
25
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) was a pioneer in
mounting huge QE activities. The BOJ assets
level already represented over 15% of GDP
back in 1998. The US Federal Reserve will
only reach that level in early 2009 during the
Great Recession.
Within the US, the recent bump up to 35% of
GDP during the COVID Recession seemed like
a giant leap. However, this QE effort is
dwarfed by the ongoing BOJ QE activities
mounted since the Great Recession. BOJ
assets currently represent a staggering 132%
of GDP vs. 34% for the US Fed.
Japan
US
26. Central Bank Policy Rate
26
Japan
US
The BOJ was also a pioneer in setting policy interest rates close to 0%. They have been at that level since 1995. The Fed only
implemented such low rates in 2009 during the Great Recession.
Gray areas denote US recessions
27. Monetary policy considerations
27
The Federal Reserve QE interventions have reached ever rising and unprecedented scale since the Great
Recession. Yet, their respective scale appears diminutive vs. Japan.
Nevertheless, the Japan ongoing very large QE efforts have not contributed to inflation. The most recent
figures indicate that Japan’s inflation has remained pretty much flat over the past 12 months at + 0.2%.
Meanwhile, in the US inflation has surged by 6.2% over the same period (Source: The Economist issue of
November 13th – 19th, 2021).
29. US Budget Deficit as % of GDP
29
Gray areas denote US recessions
Since the aftermath of the Dot.com Bubble recession in the early 2000s, the following recessions have steadily resulted
in massive increase in fiscal stimulus associated with ever larger Budget Deficits (as a % of GDP).
30. Budget Deficit comparison: Japan vs. US
30
Japan
US
Gray areas denote US recessions
Even though the Japanese data is incomplete, it again denotes that Japanese fiscal stimulus undertaking have often been far
larger than the US.
31. Central Government Debt/GDP
31
US
Japan
Source: IMF
The two countries had the same level
of Central Government Debt/GDP in
the early 1990s. Since then, Japan’s
ratio has more than tripled to 200%.
Meanwhile, the US more than
doubled from just above 40% before
the Great Recession to over 90% in
2019. My understanding is that most
recent US data would indicate that
this ratio is now much above 100%.
32. 32
General Government Debt/GDP
Japan
US
Source: IMF
Directionally, same comment as
on the previous slide.
Notice that the most recent data
disclosed by the IMF is as of
2019. If updated to 2021, both
ratios would be substantially
higher.
33. Fiscal policy considerations
33
Since the Great Recession, the US Government has embarked on an ever rapidly increasing debt
leveraging with increasing Budget Deficits even during economic expansions (relative to earlier
expansions), resulting in ever increasing Public Debt/GDP.
Given current legislation passed regarding ongoing fiscal stimuli in the $trillions, both ongoing Budget
Deficits and Public Debt/GDP ratios are likely to continue rising rapidly over the next few years.
However, when we compare the US public debt leveraging with Japan, the former is dwarfed by the
latter.
Nevertheless, the Japan ongoing very large fiscal stimulus and debt leveraging has not contributed to
inflation. The most recent figures indicate that Japan’s inflation has remained pretty much flat over
the past 12 months at + 0.2%. Meanwhile, in the US inflation has surged by 6.2% over the same
period (Source: The Economist issue of November 13th – 19th, 2021).
42. 42
The US costs are inflated
because they include cost
of hospital, administrative,
physician, and diagnostic
procedure.
Meanwhile for the other
countries, the costs only
include the cost of the
procedure.
But, even if we multiplied
Japan’s costs as specified
by 4 times, in most cases,
they still would be a lot
lower than the US ones.
45. 45
Source: Fropky.com, daitips.com
School year: 210 days School year: 180 days
* World Data sources: the intelligence quotients by countries are taken from the studies conducted by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen
(2002), Heiner Rindermann (2007), Khaleefa and Lynn (2008), Ahmad, Khanum and Riaz (2008), Lynn, Abdalla and Al-Shahomee (2008), Lynn
and Meisenberg (2010), as well as the PISA tests in 2003, 2006, and 2009. More recent results were weighted higher.
46. 46
Obesity Rate
Japan 3.7%
US 38.2%
Life Expectancy
Japan 84.4
US 78.8
Health Care Cost
Japan 11% of GDP
US 16.8% of GDP
An intriguing Causal Model
Causal
variable
Causal
variable
School Year
Japan 210 days
US 180 days
Causal variable
RGDP p.c. forecast
Japan 1.8%
US 1.4%
47. Health considerations
47
It is unclear how the US could ever bridge the vast difference in lifestyle, nutrition,
overall health status, and life expectancy with Japan. In combination those factors
contribute directly to much higher health care costs for the US relative to Japan.
Additionally, health care costs in the US are further boosted by malpractice
liabilities, for profit industry structure, and ill conceived regulations (i.e. US
Medicare not allowed to negotiate lower drug prices).
49. 49
Program for International Student
Assessment (PISA)
(15 years old)
Japan
US
Japan
Japan
US
US
Over time, reading scores between Japan and
the US are not so far apart. Japan’s are just a
lot more volatile.
On the other hand, in both math and science,
Japan performs well above the US and the
OECD average. Meanwhile, the US is below
the OECD average in math, and just about at
the OECD average in science.
Regarding those PISA country scores, one
could advance the respective average IQ of
the countries plays a role. As we will see in
the following slides, the standard deviation of
IQ may be an underlying confounding variable
that is also influential on the shown
outcomes.
50. 50
Source: American Institute of Physics, National Science Board
Japan
US
These figures should be
adjusted for respective
countries’ population size.
Nevertheless, we can see that
over the reviewed period, the
US is experiencing a reasonably
rapid upward trend from 500K
to around 750K degrees.
Meanwhile, Japan’s trend is
actually slightly downward.
Adjusted for population size,
Japan’s figures would still be
higher than the US. But, if
current trends continue, it
would not be the case for long.
51. 51
Source: American Institute of Physics, National Science Board
US total
US temporary visa
US citizens and permanent residents
Japan
Even if we adjusted the
figures for population size,
the US (during most recent
years) would be faring better
than Japan on this one
count.
52. 52
Source: American Institute of Physics, National Science Board
On this count to, the US is
faring well relative to Japan.
Remember the consideration
between average IQ and its
standard deviation. It seems
to be playing out here.
53. 53
Source: The Center for World
University Ranking (CWUR),
2021- 2022 edition
Among the top 20
universities in the
World:
US 16
Japan 1
54. 54
Source: The Center for World University Ranking (CWUR), 2021- 2022 edition
Among top 10 universities in Japan, only 2 are in the top 50 in the World.
Top 10 universities in Japan
55. 55
The top 10 universities in US all rank among the top 12 in the World.
Source: The Center for World University Ranking (CWUR), 2021- 2022 edition
Top 10 universities in US
56. Education considerations
56
Japan’s primary education performance is far superior to the US, and is likely to remain
so. The US primary school system is unlikely to ever bridge the gap in school year-days
(180 in US vs. 210 in Japan). Also, qualitative factors we have not explored like rigor in
math and science curricula are likely to remain a differentiating factor between the two
countries.
At the university level, it appears the roles are reversed with top US universities being far
superior to Japanese ones. And, the US comparing favorably in the number of university
degrees conferred in science and engineering, and in the number of publications within
those same fields.
It seems like an ideal education path would be for one to grow up in Japan to get a world
class primary education. And, then to emigrate to the US to go to university. Apparently,
many top Asian students (Japan, China, India) follow a similar path. And, they contribute
to the number of science and engineering degrees and published articles in the US.