world after covid-19

Not a few countries that are experiencing stuttering
when facing of the COVID-19 pandemic, the high
number of victims and the decline in the economy can
be regarded as the state's stuttering in responding to
the global health crisis. Stuttering that cannot be
overcome has the potential to manifest as a failed
state.
tasnim.ilmiardhi@yahoo.com
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
7/7/2020
WWOORRLLDD AAFFTTEERR CCOOVVIIDD--1199

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
World After
Economic and Military
BEGINNING of 2020, the world is marked by the presence of COVID
(corona virus disease 2019), which is an infectious disease caused by a
newly discovered coronavirus. This new virus and the disease it caused
was unknown before the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, Chi
December 2019. COVID-19 is now a pandemic that occurs in many
countries around the world.
This pandemic is caused by the Novel Corona virus (2019CoV) or now
called SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona 2), is a
new type of virus that has never been identified before in humans. The
presence of COVID-19 seems to confirm the presence of life new to
humans on this earth in the following years.
SARS-COV
TASNIM ILMIARDHI | 2020.07.07 | WORLD AFTER COVID
World After COVID-19
Economic and Military Power
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Legal Practitioner
Jakarta, Indonesia
tasnim.ilmiardhi@yahoo.com
2020, the world is marked by the presence of COVID-19
(corona virus disease 2019), which is an infectious disease caused by a
newly discovered coronavirus. This new virus and the disease it caused
was unknown before the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, in
19 is now a pandemic that occurs in many
This pandemic is caused by the Novel Corona virus (2019CoV) or now
2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona 2), is a
t has never been identified before in humans. The
19 seems to confirm the presence of life new to
humans on this earth in the following years.
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
LEGAL PRACTITIONERS
COV-2
Up to July 7, 2020, data released by
www.worldometer.com, COVID
attacked 215 countries in the world with
11,748,937 cases, and no less than 540
858 victims died. No one can be sure
when the COVID-19 pandemic will end
soon.
This ongoing pandemic has forced people
to go through life wi
cultures in an effort to 'make peace' with
COVID-19. The new life culture also
confirms the new world that is
happening, including the escalation of the
power of the countries of the world.
| WORLD AFTER COVID-19 1
19
TASNIM ILMIARDHI
LEGAL PRACTITIONERS
Up to July 7, 2020, data released by
www.worldometer.com, COVID-19 has
attacked 215 countries in the world with
11,748,937 cases, and no less than 540,
858 victims died. No one can be sure
19 pandemic will end
This ongoing pandemic has forced people
to go through life with a range of new life
cultures in an effort to 'make peace' with
19. The new life culture also
confirms the new world that is
happening, including the escalation of the
power of the countries of the world.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI | 2020.07.07 | WORLD AFTER COVID-19 2
COVID-19 which originated from
Wuhan China, has ignited
allegations that the spread of
the virus is carried out
systematically and as part of the
development of biological
weapons of mass destruction.
Although until now no one has
been able to prove the truth.
This prejudice was once
crowded in various mainstream
media, as well as social media,
both from the US and the
Chinese side, including in this
case countries with an interest
in the conflict. Previously the US
and China had been involved in
a serious trade war that took
place before the emergence of
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crisis will always create change.
Various countries are exerting
all efforts and resources to
resolve this pandemic in their
respective countries. Including
allocating the state budget in
handling this pandemic.
The implementation of lockdown and quarantine by various countries has disrupted logistics and other
supply chains. This is a warning signal that the global economy is experiencing a slowdown from the
previous high-speed. This can cause an economic collapse in a world that is connected in a global
network.
Global trade experienced a serious shock and spread throughout the world quickly. UNCTAD in the
Global Trade Impact of the Coronavirus Epidemic shows two important indicators of Chinese trade,
namely shipping and manufacturing index which decreased by 22 points, equivalent to 2% in February
2020.
The COVID-19 Pandemic health crisis has caused global economic pressure in almost all countries. The
health crisis will become an economic crisis and maybe even a global geopolitical and security crisis.
Crude oil prices, which had previously fallen, were further exacerbated by the fading of the world
economy as a result of COVID-19.

IMPACT COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Not all people and countries are able to anticipate sudden changes. It is estimated that many countries
will find it difficult to recover from the crisis. Many emerging countries will fail and not a few countries
will become weak, including weakening the integration of European countries. It is also very possible
that the health crisis this time is making further the ongoing setback of China-US relations a more
serious tension.
World Economy Before COVID-19
Since 1871, the US has maintained its position as the largest economy in the world. The size of the US
economy reaches $ 20.58 trillion in 2018 in nominal terms and is expected to reach $ 22.32 trillion in
2020. The US is often dubbed an economic superpower and that is because the economy is almost a
quarter of the global economy, supported by sophisticated infrastructure, technology, and abundant
natural resources.
When the economy was valued in terms of purchasing power parity, the US lost its top position to its
closest competitor, China. In 2019, the US economy, in terms of GDP (PPP), would reach $ 21.44
trillion, while the Chinese economy would be measured at $ 27.31 trillion. The gap between the size of
the two economies in terms of nominal GDP is expected to decrease by 2023; the US economy is
projected to grow to $ 24.88 trillion in 2023, followed by China at $ 19.41 trillion.
China has experienced exponential growth over the past few decades, breaking closed economic
barriers that are planned centrally to develop into the world's manufacturing and exporting center.
China is often referred to as the 'world factory', given its enormous manufacturing and export base.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Top 20 GDP
(Trillion USD)
Rank Country
1 United States
2 China
3 Japan
4 Germany
5 India
6 United Kingdom
7 France
8 Italy
9 Brazil
10 Canada
11 Russia
12 South Korea
13 Spain
14 Australia
15 Mexico
16 Indonesia
17 Netherlands
18 Saudi Arabia
19 Turkey
20 Switzerland
 Nominal GDP = Gross domestic product,
U.S. dollars
 GDP based on PPP = Gross domestic product, current prices,
purchasing power parity, international dollars
percent
IMF's World Economic Outlook Database October 2019.
The competition of the world economy between the United States and China is so fierce in recent
years. Even trade wars between the two are so open, including currency wars. Currently the foreign
exchange reserves of the two countries still occupy the world's t
Likewise for the gold reserves of the two countries. Gold Reserves in the United States remains
unchanged at 8133.46 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019 from 8133.46 Tonnes in the third quarter
of 2019. Gold Reserves in China increased to 1
1936.49 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2019 .
By 2020, the difference is expected to decrease to $ 7.05 trillion, and by 2023, the difference will be $
5.47 trillion. In terms of GDP in PPP, China is the
2023, China's GDP (PPP) will be $ 36.99 trillion. China's large population reduced GDP per capita to $
10,100 (seventieth position).
GDP 2019
(Trillion USD)
However, over the years, the role of
services has increased gradually and
the role of manufacturing as a
contributor to GDP has decreased
relatively. Back in 1980, China was the
seventh largest economy, with a GDP
of $ 305.35 billion, while the size of the
US at the time was $ 2.86 trillion.
Since starting market reforms in 1978,
the Asian giant has experien
average economic growth of 10% per
year. In recent years, the pace of
growth has slowed, although it remains
high compared to peers.
The IMF projects a growth of 5.8% in
2020, which will drop to around 5.6%
in 2023.
Over the years, differences in
of the Chinese and US economies have
shrunk rapidly. In 2018, China's GDP in
nominal terms reached $ 13.37 trillion,
lower than the US $ 7.21 trillion.
GDP GDP
(PPP)
21.44 21.44
14.14 27.31
5.15 5.75
3.86 4.44
2.94 10.51
2.74 3.04
2.71 2.96
1.99 2.40
1.85 3.37
1.73 1.84
1.64 4.21
1.63 2.14
1.4 1.86
1.38 1.32
1.27 2.57
1.11 3.50
0.90 0.96
0.77 1.86
0.74 2.29
0.71 0.54
product, per capita, current prices,
GDP based on PPP = Gross domestic product, current prices,
purchasing power parity, international dollars, share of world total,
October 2019.
competition of the world economy between the United States and China is so fierce in recent
exchange reserves of the two countries still occupy the world's top positions.
of 2019. Gold Reserves in China increased to 1948.31 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019 from
1936.49 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2019 .
5.47 trillion. In terms of GDP in PPP, China is the largest economy, with GDP (PPP) of $ 25.27 trillion. In
However, over the years, the role of
services has increased gradually and
the role of manufacturing as a
contributor to GDP has decreased
relatively. Back in 1980, China was the
seventh largest economy, with a GDP
of $ 305.35 billion, while the size of the
US at the time was $ 2.86 trillion.
Since starting market reforms in 1978,
the Asian giant has experienced an
average economic growth of 10% per
year. In recent years, the pace of
growth has slowed, although it remains
high compared to peers.
The IMF projects a growth of 5.8% in
2020, which will drop to around 5.6%
Over the years, differences in the size
of the Chinese and US economies have
shrunk rapidly. In 2018, China's GDP in
nominal terms reached $ 13.37 trillion,
lower than the US $ 7.21 trillion.
competition of the world economy between the United States and China is so fierce in recent
948.31 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019 from
largest economy, with GDP (PPP) of $ 25.27 trillion. In

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
TOP 20 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE
Rank Country/Region
1 China
2 Japan
3 Switzerland
4 Russia
5 India
6 Taiwan
7 Saudi Arabia
8 Hong Kong
9 South Korea
10 Brazil
11 Singapore
12 Germany
13 France
14 Thailand
15 Mexico
16 Italy
17 United Kingdom
18 Czech Republic
19 Israel
20 Indonesia
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE
egion
Foreign
Exchange
Reserves
(millions of US$)
Figures as of
3,101,692 May 2020
1,378,239 May 2020
848,398]
May 2020
570,800 12 June 2020
507,644 12 June 2020
484,520 May 2020
448,150 April 2020
442,300 May 2020
407,300 May 2020
345,706 May 2020
301,773 April 2020
245,055 April 2020
237,831 April 2020
237,246 May 2020
196,146 April 2020
190,217 April 2020
United Kingdom 179,225 May 2020[
146,804 March 2020
142,510 May 2020
130,544 May 2020
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE
Change from
previous data
(millions of US$)
weekly/monthly
10,241
9,672
15,911
5,600
5,942
2,738
24,717
1,100
3,300
6,389
22,631
10,628
40,565
1,537
6,366
8,823
849
183
8,971
3,336

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
The U.S. has the largest official
holdings of gold in the world. The
massive 8,133.5 tons of U.S. official
gold holdings are equivalent to the
next three countries combined.
The world’s largest economy has
maintained gold reserves hovering
round 8,000 tons since 2000 and is
among the top names even in terms
of percentage of foreign reserves
allocated to gold.
Currently, 78.3% of its foreign
reserves are held in gold. The U.S.
foreign exchange reserves are a
basket of foreign exchange, SDRs,
U.S. reserve position in the IMF, and
gold.
Gold Reserve by Countries
Rank Country/Organization
1 United States
2 Germany
- International Monetary
Fund
3 Italy
4 France
5 Russia
6 China
7 Switzerland
8 Japan
9 India
10 Netherlands
according to World Gold Council's as of June 2020
During 2009, China almost doubled its gold holdings within a quarter, moving from $599.98 tons in Q1
2009 to 1,054.9 tonnes in Q2 2009. The next big buying was witnessed in 2015, when its reserves
moved up from 1,054.9 tons in Q1 2015 to 1,658.42 tons in Q2 2015.
Today the world is dominated by China's economic strength. The strong centralization and dominance
of China in global production and trade has a negative impact. In the past decade, trade is still
The U.S. has the largest official
holdings of gold in the world. The
massive 8,133.5 tons of U.S. official
gold holdings are equivalent to the
next three countries combined.
The world’s largest economy has
maintained gold reserves hovering
ns since 2000 and is
among the top names even in terms
of percentage of foreign reserves
Currently, 78.3% of its foreign
reserves are held in gold. The U.S.
foreign exchange reserves are a
basket of foreign exchange, SDRs,
position in the IMF, and
by Countries
China is the largest gold consumer and
producer in the world. However, China’s
official gold reserves stand at 1,948.3
tons, constituting 3.2% of its foreign
reserves. During 2019, its
by 95.8 tons. Meanwhile,
China reduced its holdings of U.S.
treasury securities from $1,130.9 billion
in February 2019 to $1,092.3 billion in
February 2020. Since 2000, some of the
major spurts of gold buying by China
were seen in 2001, 2002, 2009, and
2015. During Q4 2001, China increased
its gold reserves by 105 tons and again
in Q4 2002, its gold reserves moved up
by almost 100 tons to reach 599.98
tons. Mainland maintained these levels
until the beginning of 2009, the period
of the global financial crisis.
Country/Organization
Gold
holdings
(in metric
tons)
Gold's
share of
forex
reserves
8,133.5 79.1%
3,363.6 75.0%
International Monetary 2,814.0 N/A
2,451.8 70.5%
2,436.0 65.0%
2,298.7 22.2%
1,948.3 3.3%
1,040.0 6.7%
765.2 3.1%
653.0 7.4%
612.5 71.5%
as of June 2020
in Q2 2009. The next big buying was witnessed in 2015, when its reserves
moved up from 1,054.9 tons in Q1 2015 to 1,658.42 tons in Q2 2015.
bal production and trade has a negative impact. In the past decade, trade is still
China is the largest gold consumer and
producer in the world. However, China’s
official gold reserves stand at 1,948.3
tons, constituting 3.2% of its foreign
reserves. During 2019, its reserves grew
by 95.8 tons. Meanwhile,
its holdings of U.S.
treasury securities from $1,130.9 billion
in February 2019 to $1,092.3 billion in
Since 2000, some of the
major spurts of gold buying by China
were seen in 2001, 2002, 2009, and
2015. During Q4 2001, China increased
its gold reserves by 105 tons and again
in Q4 2002, its gold reserves moved up
by almost 100 tons to reach 599.98
inland maintained these levels
until the beginning of 2009, the period
of the global financial crisis.
in Q2 2009. The next big buying was witnessed in 2015, when its reserves
bal production and trade has a negative impact. In the past decade, trade is still

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
dominated by China with a percentage of 20% of global manufacturing production. The current
strength of China's economy is not only in the field of trade, but also in the fi
excellence and innovation. For the first time in the last four decades China bulldozed and passed the
United States in patent registration at the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). During
2019, China registered 58,990 whi
.
The global economy and trade continue to advance into the global value chain (GVC). Global
production is no longer dominated by one country,
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused fundamental shocks to the world financial system and economy,
as it confirms that global supply chains and distribution networks are very vulnerable to disruption.
Not only will this have an impact on the economy that will last a long time, but it will also cause more
fundamental changes in various other fields.
China's Economy 2019
In the past 29 years, China's growth has plummeted to its lowest level in 2019. Investment
affected by a trade war with the United States. Fourth quarter GDP rose 6.0 percent from 2018, stable
at the same pace as the third quarter, although still the weakest in almost three decades.
Economic growth in 2019 at 6.1% shrank from 6.6%
since 1990. Fixed asset investment rose 5.4 percent for the full year in 2019. Real estate investment
rose 9.9 percent in 2019.
Banks have also been encouraged to lend more especially to small companies w
reaching 16.81 trillion yuan or US $ 2.44 trillion in 2019. However, the economy has been slow to
respond and investment growth has dropped to record lows.
China is dominant in coloring the world economy with the ability of manufacturin
networks and their distribution. Likewise, efforts to integrate world economic activity into one
network through infrastructure offered through One Belt One Road (OBOR). Even Italy, an EU country,
has joined the One Belt One Road project.
where Huawei has announced an investment plan of 3.1 billion US dollars with a duration of three
years and will create 1,000 jobs.
strength of China's economy is not only in the field of trade, but also in the fi
2019, China registered 58,990 while the US ‘only’ 57,840
This is a sign that in the field of
innovation and technology,
China has operated in a high
economic value. This was
responded by the United States
by asking the world to ban the
use of Huawei's information
and communication te
equipment from the C
the accusation that the
technology could be used by
China to spy on anyone
production is no longer dominated by one country, but has spread into the global production network.
19 pandemic has caused fundamental shocks to the world financial system and economy,
will this have an impact on the economy that will last a long time, but it will also cause more
fundamental changes in various other fields.
In the past 29 years, China's growth has plummeted to its lowest level in 2019. Investment
Economic growth in 2019 at 6.1% shrank from 6.6% in 2018, the slowest annual rate of expansion ever
Banks have also been encouraged to lend more especially to small companies w
respond and investment growth has dropped to record lows.
China is dominant in coloring the world economy with the ability of manufacturin
has joined the One Belt One Road project. In addition, Italy is also China's investment destination
years and will create 1,000 jobs.
strength of China's economy is not only in the field of trade, but also in the field of technological
This is a sign that in the field of
innovation and technology,
China has operated in a high
economic value. This was
responded by the United States
by asking the world to ban the
use of Huawei's information
and communication technology
equipment from the China on
the accusation that the
technology could be used by
China to spy on anyone.
but has spread into the global production network.
19 pandemic has caused fundamental shocks to the world financial system and economy,
will this have an impact on the economy that will last a long time, but it will also cause more
In the past 29 years, China's growth has plummeted to its lowest level in 2019. Investment has stalled,
in 2018, the slowest annual rate of expansion ever
Banks have also been encouraged to lend more especially to small companies with new yuan loans
China is dominant in coloring the world economy with the ability of manufacturing centers, trade
In addition, Italy is also China's investment destination

World After COVID-19
The International Monetery Fund (IMF) states that the 'economic wounds' caused by the global crisis
as a result of the corona virus pandemic will be worse than previously thought. In the latest report
released on Wednesday (06/24/2020) the IMF now estimates that world economic output in 2020 will
shrink by almost 5%, or almost 2% worse than the forecast released in April 2020. The world will lose
economic output worth US $ 12 trillion over two years.
The IMF also released a projected number of losses due to COVID-19 globally which was around US $
12 Trillion until 2021. As a result the threat of the global crisis was increasingly felt, because 95% of
countries experienced economic decline, and would trigger a crisis in the next period. But from the
results of IMF projections in 2021 there will be a reversal of economic growth in countries around the
world. The IMF even made a projection on the ASEAN-5 countries, one of which was the country of
Indonesia experiencing a growth of 6.2%.
The biggest contraction in economic activity during 2020 will occur in developed countries, especially
in Europe. The United Kingdom is most likely in the worst category. A number of Western European
countries, including Britain and France, are expected to experience a shrinkage of more than 10%.
The COVID-19 pandemic will not fundamentally change the direction of the global economy. But it will
only accelerate the changes that have begun in the past, the shift from an American-dominated
globalization to a Chinese-centric dominated globalization.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
China-India-Indonesia
These three countries are of concern in the development of the world economy. The IMF noted that
China is the only major country which is expected to continue to record growth even though only 1%
in 2020. While in 2021 it is estimate
countries which is 8.2%.
While India is expected to experience a sharp contraction of 4.5%. But for 2021 India will record
growth at 6%. Quite competitive with the economic growth of developed
Indonesia's economic growth will experience a contraction of
Indonesia's economic growth will reach 6.1%. When compared with other developing economies,
Indonesia's economic contraction this year is s
Malaysian economy will grow -3.8%, Brazil
and the Philippines -3.8%.
in 2020. While in 2021 it is estimated that China will achieve the highest growth compared to other
growth at 6%. Quite competitive with the economic growth of developed countries in Europe.
Indonesia's economic growth will experience a contraction of -0.3% in 2020. However, in 2021,
Indonesia's economic contraction this year is somewhat lower. In 2021, the IMF estimates that the
3.8%, Brazil -9.1%, India -4.5 percent, Mexico -
d that China will achieve the highest growth compared to other
countries in Europe.
0.3% in 2020. However, in 2021,
omewhat lower. In 2021, the IMF estimates that the
-10.5%, Thailand -7.7%

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
After the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of the Chinese economy will play an i
recovery of the devastated global economy. China is in many ways the world's manufacturing center,
which is able to expand production in a way that only a small number of countries do.
Top 10
No Country
1 CHINA
2 FRANCE
3 PHILIPPINES
4 MALAYSIA
5 UNITED KINGDOM
6 ITALY
7 SPANYOL
8 INDONESIA
9 INDIA
10 GERMANY
World Economic Outlook IMF, June 24, 2020
19 pandemic, the rise of the Chinese economy will play an i
10 Countries after COVID-19
Country June 2020 Projections April 2020 Projections
2020 2021 2020
1.0 8.2 -0.2
-12.5 7.3 -5.3
-3.6 6.8 -4.2
-3.8 6.3 -2.1
UNITED KINGDOM -10.2 6.3 -3.7
-12.8 6.3 -3.7
-12.8 6.3 -4.8
-0.3 6.1 -0.8
-4.5 6.0 -6.4
-7.8 5.4 -0.8
19 pandemic, the rise of the Chinese economy will play an important role in the
19
April 2020 Projections
2021
-1.0
2.8
-0.8
-2.7
2.3
1.5
2.0
-2.1
-1.4
0.2

Recovering Countries
The IMF also released a list of names of countries that were expected to survive and recover the most
quickly in the handling of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 5 countries
are in Asia and 5 other countries from Europe. A total of 3 Asian countries are in the ASEAN region.
The IMF considers that the unexpected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has become more
devastating than expectations on the economies of developed countries in the first half of 2020. For
this reason, the process of economic recovery will also be gradually carried out by various developed
and developing countries. Because of concerns about the increase in cases of transmission of the
COVID-19 virus is still growing. The threat of the second wave of this pandemic continues to threaten
humans.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also released countries that would recover economically after the COVID-
19 pandemic through the "Asia Economic Mid-Year Outlook".
Recovering Countries in Asia
Three factors can influence the speed of
economic recovery of these countries. First,
how big is the impact of the dynamics of global
economic growth on the structure of the
country's economic growth. Second, the
effectiveness of the response issued by the
institution to withstand the deeper negative
effects of COVID-19. Effectiveness of state
responses in maintaining domestic demand.
Finally, easing or availability of space for
policies that will be needed at any time in
dealing with the challenges of COVID-19.
Group Country Time Projections
I CHINA Q3(2020)
II INDIA Q4(2020)-Q1(2021)
INDONESIA
PHILIPPINES
SOUTH KOREA
TAIWAN
III HONGKONG Q2(2021)
MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
Morgan Stanley, Asia Economic Mid-Year Outlook 2020
Global Transformation
The COVID-19 pandemic not only caused numerous casualties in almost the entire world, but also
caused a very fundamental global transformation, overhauled patterns of human interaction and
relations between nations in the world system, and changed the increasingly loose direction of global
geopolitics, making each country have sovereignty in looking at the urgency of global collaboration
and collaboration. There are at least three transformations that will change the face of the world
going forward, namely economic and trade transformation, and international relations and
geostrategy.
Economy and Trade. Pre COVID-19, global trade continues to develop forward into the global value
chain (GVC). Global production is no longer dominated by one country, but has spread into the global
production network. However, the COVID-19 pandemic became a rare and major impact event that
showed the weakness of the global trading system. The emergence of Covid-19 shows that the GVC
has not yet become a mainstream of global trade and fragile global trade.

Highly centralized and dominated by China in global manufacturing production is endangering the
world economy when shocks occur at a dominant point. Global trade experienced a serious
contraction and its magnitude spread rapidly throughout the world. A negative impact of the
centralization of production and trade which depends on the dominant country.
This includes handling and learning from the COVID-19 pandemic, not a single country can survive
independently to continue to advance and maintain its economic sustainability. The expansion of
COVID-19 has disrupted economic relations between countries, resources have begun to diminish,
traffic and human interaction is limited, so 'dependency' is a problem in global geopolitics.
Countries in Conflict with China
No Country Cause
1 Japan Border dispute of the Senkaku Islands, Ryukyu Islands
2 Russia The 160,000-kilometer border region is claimed to be part of China
3 Tajikistan China claims to be part of the Qing Dinasty
4 Mongolia China claims to be part of the Yuan Dynasty
5 India China occupies the Aksai Chin region and claims against Ladakh and
Arunachal Pradesh
6 Nepal Nepal is a part of Tibet which is the rule of China
7 Bhutan Claims as border region in Tibet
8 North Korea China claims the entire Korean peninsula is part of the Yuan Dynasty
9 Outh Korea China claims the entire Korean peninsula is part of the Yuan Dynasty
10 Taiwan China claims that Taiwan is a province of China
11 Philippines Claims the South China Sea, Philippines wins at International Court
of Justice
12 Singapore Border of the South China Sea
13 Vietnam China claims Vietnam is part of the Ming Dynasty, the Paracel
Islands and the Spratly Islands
14 Laos China claims Laos is part of the Yuan Dynasty
15 Brunei Claims to the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands
16 Cambodia China claims to be part of the Ming Dynasty
17 Malaysia Claims to the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands
18 Indonesia South China Sea Claims
various sources
International Relations and Geopolitics. Weakening the role of world organizations and not obeyed
by the state because as in the dictum of realism, states act in their rational self-interest within the
international system. Many countries do not comply with the health protocols of the World Health
Organization (WHO) and the inability of the European Union (EU) in helping its member countries
become blamed for supranationalism. International relations are undergoing a fundamental
transformation.
EU countries tend to be intergovermentalism that puts national interests first. The transformation of
international relations will also be caused by weak global cooperation. The state tends to cooperate
bilaterally.

Likewise, the transformation of regionalism which continues to experience a crisis not only the
economy, but also the deficit of legitimacy from the state. In addition, COVID-19 foreign assistance
which is a form of soft diplomacy will also trigger changes in the map of global power alliances.
Conflict in the Asian region will dominate this problem.
The global geopolitical view is now transforming into a number of countries around the world.
Conceptually, the global geopolitical map always relies on the thinking of world system theory (world
system) which shows that the movement of world economic development continues to change, and
views developed countries as countries that are very appropriate to control the world. The division of
regions in world system theory appears to still be the basis in mapping global geopolitics, which in
reality in the geopolitical discourse of a new world order is in line with the emergence of countries as
new forces in the post-Cold War global political economy constellation.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on changes in geopolitical discourse, at least the
US will experience a reorientation in emphasizing its geopolitical ambition to continue as a champion
of democracy and a center of world power.
The Worst Growth Economic 2020
No NEGARA
June 2020 Projections April 2020 Projections
2020 2021 2020 2021
1 Italy –12.8 6.3 –12.8 6.3
2 Spain –12.8 6.3 –12.8 6.3
3 France –12.5 7.3 –12.5 7.3
4 Mexico –10.5 3.3 –10.5 3.3
5 United Kingdom –10.2 6.3 –10.2 6.3
6 Argentina –9.9 3.9 –9.9 3.9
7 Brazil –9.1 3.6 –9.1 3.6
8 Canada –8.4 4.9 –8.4 4.9
9 South Africa –8.0 3.5 –8.0 3.5
10 United States –8.0 4.5 –8.0 4.5
Stuttering and Failing Leads to Conflict
The IMF also released the countries with the worst economic growth in 2020. Countries in Europe,
Latin America, Africa and even the United States were included in the ranks of the list. This poor
economic growth is parallel to the uncontrolled spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries.
Poor economic growth in 2020 is a form of stuttering in handling COVID-19.
In predicting, not a few countries that are experiencing stuttering when facing of the COVID-19
pandemic, the high number of victims and the decline in the economy can be regarded as the state's
stuttering in responding to the global health crisis. Stuttering that cannot be overcome has the
potential to manifest as a failed state.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
The accumulation of a group of failed countries is very potential in triggering regional conflicts.
Mismanagement of the crisis can trigger social unr
crisis. Whereas externally, this crisis without limits can continue to spread massively to a vast territory
between continents and is equally dangerous than the threat of weapons of mass destruction.
In handling the COVID-19 pandemic, no country can survive independently to continue to advance and
maintain its economic sustainability. The expansion of COVID
relations between countries, resources are reduced, mobility and h
limited. The current bad conditions will change the global geopolitical escalation.
History records, outbreaks of disease that had attacked the previous time often continue with war.
Like the Justinian outbreak in the 6th
death in the 15th century affected the wars of European empires. Also the Spanish Flu that plague at
the end of World War I. In the end various factors led to the unpleasant conclusion, that the
potential for a big war that was ready to stir. Until now there are still many armed conflicts in Asian
and African countries.
Military vs Economy
The economy and military of a country are closely related. Economic progress strongly
state budget in building its military power. But it becomes interesting when the economic and military
forces come together in a conflict.
The COVID-19 pandemic crisis situation which led to economic pressures and a decline in dominance,
made how many countries would take extreme steps in responding to world change. Allegations that
the COVID-19 virus is an act of bio
competition in internet technology and the global economy can
attitude, even though this conspiracy theory is difficult to prove.
Mismanagement of the crisis can trigger social unrest, domestically it will trigger a domestic social
19 pandemic, no country can survive independently to continue to advance and
maintain its economic sustainability. The expansion of COVID-19 causes disruption of economic
relations between countries, resources are reduced, mobility and human interaction are increasingly
Like the Justinian outbreak in the 6th century AD that influenced the Sasaniah
the end of World War I. In the end various factors led to the unpleasant conclusion, that the
The economy and military of a country are closely related. Economic progress strongly
forces come together in a conflict.
19 pandemic crisis situation which led to economic pressures and a decline in dominance,
how many countries would take extreme steps in responding to world change. Allegations that
19 virus is an act of bio-terror from biological weapons of mass destruction as a result of
competition in internet technology and the global economy can be considered a manifestation of this
attitude, even though this conspiracy theory is difficult to prove.
est, domestically it will trigger a domestic social
19 pandemic, no country can survive independently to continue to advance and
19 causes disruption of economic
uman interaction are increasingly
century AD that influenced the Sasaniah-Byzantine war. Black
the end of World War I. In the end various factors led to the unpleasant conclusion, that there was the
The economy and military of a country are closely related. Economic progress strongly supports the
19 pandemic crisis situation which led to economic pressures and a decline in dominance,
how many countries would take extreme steps in responding to world change. Allegations that
terror from biological weapons of mass destruction as a result of
be considered a manifestation of this

Nothing is faster to destroy the Global Economic & Financial System without damaging infrastructure
than intentionally spreading highly infectious viruses with extremely high mortality rates. A deadly
attack without damage.
The development of 5G Internet technology represents the most profitable business opportunities in
the future, which of course is followed by hopes of increasing economic growth. Although on the
other hand, there is a threat of global control over the existence of the outbreak of this technology,
how real the control of world financial power.
Until now the US is a country with superior military strength, and can only be balanced with the
strength of developed countries together. It could become a necessity if the US would use these
advantages in responding to the global crisis and world change.
While on the other hand, during this decade, China has been able to emerge as a country that excels in
economic capability, and can be considered the economic superiority of China in almost all fields. Even
disparities that are quite far from the nearest competitor country. The superiority of the Chinese
economy is estimated to be the foundation of various countries in handling the global crisis.
Trade Domination
Relinquish control of debt. In February 2020, China had US treasury worth US $ 1.092 trillion, making
China the second largest bond holder in the world. China is only inferior to Japan which has a Treasury
valued at US $ 1.268 trillion.

If China releases its treasury, the US dollar exchange rate will fall, and its yield will rise sharply, interest
rates will also rise. This will cause the US economy to decline as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic to
worsen. However, the impact that will occur also triggers global financial turmoil, and certainly will
affect the Chinese economy as well.
Currency depreciation. The devaluation of the Yuan could be a step taken by China in the face of a
trade war with the US. Depreciation can have a double effect, a weak currency will make Chinese
exports cheaper and more competitive, at the same time, US products become expensive, especially
those that have been subject to high import duties. But on the other hand will cause the Chinese
financial system is unstable, monetary regulation will be increasingly difficult.
Embargo/Isolation. In addition, with the network and economic influence in Asia, Europe and Latin
America that have been intertwined so far, it is not impossible that China will take steps to isolate the
US from the trade and distribution routes owned by China. During this time China has proven to
master the global trade and distribution chain.

Digital Currency. In early May 2020, China released a digital currency in carrying out its economic
transactions. China's central bank has stepped up the development of e-RMB, which is set as the first
digital currency operated by major economies. This digital currency has been officially adopted into
the city's monetary system, with some civil servants receiving their salaries in digital currency.
China's efforts in releasing sovereign digital currencies as a functional alternative to the settlement of
the dollar and blunt the effects of sanctions or the threat of exclusion / boycotts at both the country
and company level. It can also facilitate integration into globally traded currency markets by reducing
the risk of disruption inspired by politics by certain parties.
This is in line with the COVID-19 pandemic management strategy that advocates digital payments and
because people are avoiding physical contact and reducing the use of cash which is expected to
continue amid the growing popularity of digital economic platforms during the coronavirus pandemic.
With the economic capacity of China, it will be inevitable that the existence of the e-RMB digital
currency released will replace the US dollar in international trade transactions in the future, what if
this happens, then it is certain that the US domination in the world economy has been completed .
Nuclear Pressure
In a global crisis situation the COVID-19 Pandemic cannot be determined when it will end, the United
States Government is preparing to reactivate a nuclear test that has been frozen for 28 years. This
nuclear test effort is also a form of pressure on China.
Previously the United States was bound by a major arms control agreement Strategic Arms Reduction
Treaty (New Start 2010), which limits US and Russian strategic warheads, which will expire in February
2021. But the US government has stated that it does not want to extend it without bringing China into
arms control negotiations.. Meanwhile, Beijing has refused, arguing that its nuclear weapons are very
small compared to US and Russian armories (estimated to be around twenty sizes).
The US, and four other officially recognized nuclear weapons forces, signed the Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Treaty in 1996. Since 1992 the US and other nuclear forces have
observed a moratorium on testing. Breaking the moratorium could destroy the CTBT, and prove
instability when there are fears of a new arms race.
Efforts to conduct a US nuclear test and bring China into nuclear negotiations, encourage China and all
other nuclear-armed states to test as well. Making nuclear as a means of pressure, is considered as a
form of frustration in responding to changes in the world, and the decline of US domination as a
developed country, and it is not impossible that it will spark new crises and more uncontrolled
conflicts.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Fighting in the South China Sea
The current situation in the South China Sea region seems to
the deficit in the country's legitimacy are likely to take place. Although it has the potential for so long,
the COVID-19 pandemic crisis has become a trigger to increase the escalation of conflicts in the region.
The potential for conflict was also colored by narratives over the struggle for hegemony in the
Southeast Asian region.
The South China Sea is the most contested area on earth, with overlapping claims from China,
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei,
territory in the South China Sea, the waters have become very vulnerable to armed conflict. The
Chinese claim collides with the territory of a number of countries in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam,
the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, to Taiwan. This conflict is quite unique, because the area disputed by
many countries is a fairly wide sea.
The claim of Chinese control over the territorial waters is based on the one
fishermen have sailed the sea for a long time, known as the nine dash line, because the marks printed
on the map of China in the region, so far are the ones the largest and covers almost the entire South
China Sea area of 3.6 million square kilometers (the waterway co
Hainan Island to its peak in Indonesia.
claimed to belong to their exclusive zones based on the 1982. United Nations Naval Law Convention
(UNCLOS) in recent years. high seas.
The current situation in the South China Sea region seems to confirm that regional transformation and
19 pandemic crisis has become a trigger to increase the escalation of conflicts in the region.
he potential for conflict was also colored by narratives over the struggle for hegemony in the
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and Indonesia. Since China claimed 90% of the
Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, to Taiwan. This conflict is quite unique, because the area disputed by
many countries is a fairly wide sea.
The claim of Chinese control over the territorial waters is based on the one-sided claim that Chinese
sailed the sea for a long time, known as the nine dash line, because the marks printed
3.6 million square kilometers (the waterway covers 1.4 million square miles), from
Hainan Island to its peak in Indonesia. Whereas ASEAN countries firmly claimed territories that were
ears. high seas.
confirm that regional transformation and
19 pandemic crisis has become a trigger to increase the escalation of conflicts in the region.
he potential for conflict was also colored by narratives over the struggle for hegemony in the
Taiwan and Indonesia. Since China claimed 90% of the
Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, to Taiwan. This conflict is quite unique, because the area disputed by
sided claim that Chinese
sailed the sea for a long time, known as the nine dash line, because the marks printed
vers 1.4 million square miles), from
Whereas ASEAN countries firmly claimed territories that were

Although Chinese claims have no basis under international law and were declared invalid in an
international court ruling in 2016, since 2015, China has begun to increase its territorial ambitions by
building artificial islands on reefs and reefs in the South China Sea and then militarizing the region that
with port facilities, and fighter planes.
The South China Sea floor is full of oil and gas reserves. According to US Department of Energy data,
11 billion barrels of oil reserves, 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Meanwhile, based on data from
the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia, the volume of gas in place (Initial
Gas in Place / IGIP) is 222 trillion cubic feet (trillion cubic feet / tcf).

In addition, this sea is a traffic lane for international trade, nearly 40% of international trade passes
through this route, especially the transportation of oil and gas from the Middle East to Asia. At least an
average ship that requests 1000 units a day, based on a skylight monitor system (monitoring system
with remote sensing). This is equivalent to US $ 5.3 trillion.
Likewise, the abundance of conventional marine products in the form of fish with various types, such
as grouper, napoleon, to lobster which is highly valued in these waters. From the data of the Ministry
of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia, no less than 1.2 million tons of marine
products annually can be obtained from this region.
Resources of South China Sea
Oil & Gas Shipping line Fishery
 Oil 11 billion barel
 Gas 222 trillion cubic feet
 40% global route
 90% Asia energy distribution
 1000 unit/day
 equal US$ 5,3 trillion/year
 1,2 million ton/tahun
 10% global supply
Sources: GoI & GoA
Response to each other
China and the United States are the two big powers in the global order. In addition to the war of
statements regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, involved in a trade war, they also fought over oil and
natural gas reserves in the bottom of the South China Sea. In addressing the polemic of the South
China Sea, with the basis and capabilities of each party, since 2015, China has begun to increase its
territorial ambitions by building artificial islands on reefs and shoals in the South China Sea and then
militarizing the area with various facilities. Indeed, the island made in China, its construction has been
banned by the International Mahakamah following a lawsuit filed by the Philippines in 2016.
China built islands in the region and sent troops, and equipped them with ports, robots, long-range
weapons, and fighter runways. The islands are full of radar and surveillance capabilities, China can see
and monitor everything that happens in the South China Sea. In the past, China did not know where
drilling activity was in the South China Sea, but now China certainly knows. China has created a fleet of
coast guards and Chinese fishing vessels that can be deployed in the South China Sea to disrupt other
claimant ships or sail in politically sensitive areas.
In response to this, the United States through the Indo-Pacific Command specifically conducted
assignments and operations in this region. The United States has reason to interfere in the South
China Sea and East China Sea. Under the pretext of running a navigation freedom operation (Fonop).
Since April 20, the USS America light-class aircraft carrier carrying a number of F-35 warplanes
escorted by two USS Bunker Hill and USS Barry warplanes, maneuvered in the South China Sea and the
Taiwan Strait region, mainly at the disputed locations. The US Air Force also flew from Guam B-1B
bombers and Global Hawk spy drones over the South China Sea to support the Indo-Pacific Command.

reuters
In June 2020, the US also sent two US warships, USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike
Groups to begin training to increase the United States' responsive, flexible and lasting commitment to
mutual defense agreements with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. A few days earlier, the US had
also sent the USS litoral battleship Gabrielle Giffords to join the two Japanese Self Defense Forces
ships JMSDF JS Kashima and JS Shimayuki to conduct training in the South China Sea as part of the
importance of communication and coordination when operating together.
The US Navy still has a mission that is ready and deployed globally. The US military mobilizes 375,000
troops and 60% of warships to the Asia Pacific, including the operation of two carriers as a form of US
commitment to regional allies and the ability to rapidly combat forces in the Indo-Pacific, as well as
readiness to face all parties who oppose international norms that support regional stability. Also as an
integration of regional allies and adding pressure on China, which claims a large portion of the South
China Sea.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
In comparison, during the eight years of US President Barack Obama's tenure, the US navy carried out
only four freedom of navigation operations in the region. Meanwhile, during the Trump administration
which has not been even four years, the US navy has 22 times conducted free
operations in the South China Sea. The military of the two countries needs to improve communication
to prevent possible strategic misunderstandings and miscalculation. The two have no history of
meeting in an open confrontation. Deteriora
likelihood of dangerous incidents, conflicts or even crises.
New Military Strenght
Economic growth affects the defense ability of a country and its influence in a region. The rapid
economic growth in the Asian region has made the region experience a surge in military spending in its
countries.
Total global military spending rose to US $ 1917 billion in 2019, according to new data from the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). T
increase from 2018 and the biggest annual spending growth since 2010. The five biggest shoppers in
2019, which accounted for 62 percent of spending, were the United States, China, India, Russia and
Saudi Arabia. This is the first time that two Asian countries have appeared among the top three
military shoppers
the eight years of US President Barack Obama's tenure, the US navy carried out
which has not been even four years, the US navy has 22 times conducted free
meeting in an open confrontation. Deteriorating military relations will substantially increase the
likelihood of dangerous incidents, conflicts or even crises.
in the Asian region has made the region experience a surge in military spending in its
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Total for 2019 represents a 3.6 percent
is the first time that two Asian countries have appeared among the top three
the eight years of US President Barack Obama's tenure, the US navy carried out
which has not been even four years, the US navy has 22 times conducted freedom of navigation
ting military relations will substantially increase the
in the Asian region has made the region experience a surge in military spending in its
otal for 2019 represents a 3.6 percent
is the first time that two Asian countries have appeared among the top three

US-CHINA NAVAL RACE
Global military spending in 2019 represents 2.2 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), which
is equivalent to around US $ 249 per person. Global military spending is 7.2 percent higher in 2019
than in 2010, indicating a trend that growth in military spending has increased in recent years. This is
the highest level of expenditure since the 2008 global financial crisis and may be the peak in spending.
The United States is driving global growth in military spending. Military spending by the United States
grew by 5.3 percent to a total of US $ 732 billion in 2019 and accounted for 38 percent of global
military spending. The increase in US spending in 2019 alone is equivalent to overall German military
spending for that year. The recent growth of US military spending is based largely on the perception of
a return to competition between major powers.
China and India are Asia's biggest military expenditures. In 2019, China and India, respectively, are the
second and third largest military shopper in the world. Chinese military spending reached $ 261 billion
in 2019, an increase of 5.1 percent compared to 2018, while India grew 6.8 percent to $ 71.1 billion.
India's tensions and competition with Pakistan and China are among the main drivers of increasing
military spending. Japan ($ 47.6 billion) and South Korea ($ 43.9 billion) are the largest military
shopper in Asia and Oceania. Military spending in this region has increased every year since at least
1989.
Germany leads the increase in military spending in Europe. German military spending rose 10 percent
in 2019, to $ 49.3 billion. This is the biggest increase in spending among the top 15 military shoppers in
2019. Growth in German military spending can be partly explained by the perception of increasing
threats from Russia, which is shared by many member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO). At the same time, however, military spending by France and Britain remained
relatively stable.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
SIPRI2020 ; other sources
There was a sharp increase in military spending among NATO member countries in Central Europe, for
example, Bulgaria increased 127 percent, mainly because payments for new warplanes, and Romania
rose 17 percent. Total military spending by all 29 NATO member countries is $ 1035 billion by 2019.
In 2019, Russia was the fourth largest shopper in the world and increased its military spending by 4.5
percent to $ 65.1 billion. With 3.9 percent of its GDP, Russ
the highest in Europe in 2019.
Military Expenditure
Rank Country
World total
1 United States
2 China
3 India
4 Russian Federation
5 Saudi Arabia
6 France
7 Germany
8 United Kingdom
9 Japan
10 South Korea
11 Brazil
12 Italy
13 Australia
14 Canada
15 Israel
percent. Total military spending by all 29 NATO member countries is $ 1035 billion by 2019.
percent to $ 65.1 billion. With 3.9 percent of its GDP, Russia's military expenditure burden is among
Military Expenditure 2019
Spending
(US$ bn)
% of
GDP
Remark
1,917 2.2
732.0 3.4 • Maintain supremacy
• Economic progress
• The emergence of new powers
• Involved regional conflicts
261.0 1.9 • Economic progress
• Building regional supremacy
71.1 2.4 • Border threats
65.1 3.9 • Breaks domination
61.9 8.0 • Maintain regional dominance
50.1 1.9 Economic progress
49.3 1.3 The threat of regional stability
47.6 0.9 Border threat
43.9 2.7 Border threat
26.9 1.5
25.9 1.9 The threat of regional stability
20.5 5.3 Regional conflicts involved
percent. Total military spending by all 29 NATO member countries is $ 1035 billion by 2019.
ia's military expenditure burden is among
Remark
• Maintain supremacy
• The emergence of new powers
ional supremacy
• Breaks domination
• Maintain regional dominance
regional conflicts
regional stability
The threat of regional stability
conflicts involved

Erratic military spending in
African countries in
conflict. Armed conflict is
one of the main drivers of
the uncertain nature of
military spending in Sub-
Saharan Africa.
For example, in the Sahel
and Lake Chad region,
where there are ongoing
armed conflicts, military
spending in 2019 has
increased in Burkina Faso
(22 percent), Cameroon
(1.4 percent) and Mali (3.6
percent) but fell in Chad (-
5.1 percent), Niger (-20
percent) and Nigeria (-8.2
percent).
Among Central African countries involved in armed conflict, military spending in 2019 increased as a
whole. Central African Republic (8.7 percent), Democratic Republic of Congo (16 percent) and Uganda
(52 percent) all increased military spending by 2019.
Other important regional developments. South America, military spending in South America is
relatively unchanged in 2019, amounting to $ 52.8 billion. Brazil accounts for 51 percent of total
military spending in the subregion. Africa, the combined military spending of countries in Africa grew
1.5 percent to around $ 41.2 billion in 2019, the first increase in spending in the region in five years.
Southeast Asia, military spending in Southeast Asia increased 4.2 percent in 2019 to reach $ 40.5
billion. The average military expenditure burden is 1.4 percent of GDP for countries in America, 1.6
percent for Africa, 1.7 percent for Asia and Oceania and for Europe and 4.5 percent for the Middle
East (in countries countries for which data is available).

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
US Widen Distance
In 2019, the United States remains the largest defense shopper in the world, expanding the gap
between it and the second largest shopper, China. US investment in arms procurement and R&D alone
is greater than China's total defense budget. US defense investment in arms and R&D supplies is also
worth around four times that of the combined European countries.
IISS data show that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India main
position as the world's top defense shopper. Indeed, the only movement in the top 15 saw Italy and
Australia switch places, with Italy taking 12th place and 13th Australia.
The lack of change in the top 15 reflects an interesting fundamental tr
the dominance of its spending. In 2019, global defense spending rose 4.0% in real terms compared to
2018, but spending in the US grew 6.6%. Chinese spending also rose 6.6% compared to 2018 data, but
the defense spending trajectories of the two countries are different. The increase in the US budget is
the biggest in ten years, and spending has increased year after year since US President Donald Trump
took office.
greater than China's total defense budget. US defense investment in arms and R&D supplies is also
worth around four times that of the combined European countries.
IISS data show that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India main
The lack of change in the top 15 reflects an interesting fundamental trend, where the US only restates
ectories of the two countries are different. The increase in the US budget is
greater than China's total defense budget. US defense investment in arms and R&D supplies is also
IISS data show that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India maintain their
end, where the US only restates
ectories of the two countries are different. The increase in the US budget is

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
While spending is still rising in China, the pace of growth
economic slowdown. The difference in this trajectory means that the expenditure gap between the
two countries, which has narrowed since 2010, has increas
to be seen whether this trend will continue given Washington's plans for increased defense spending
that is more limited in FY2021.
Examining the data, it is also clear that while Washington might reaffirm the dominance of its global
spending, it is simultaneously reduci
exemplified primarily in reductions for the Foreign Military Funding program and to the European
Prevention Initiative.
IISS data show that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Ar
The lack of change in the top 15 reflects an
2018, but spending in the US grew 6.6%. Chinese spending also rose 6.6% compared to 2018 data, bu
took office.
While spending is still rising in China, the pace of growth is slowing, in line with Beijing's relative
two countries, which has narrowed since 2010, has increased once again in 2018
er this trend will continue given Washington's plans for increased defense spending
spending, it is simultaneously reducing its financial assistance for allied defense budgets. This has been
IISS data show that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India maintain their
The lack of change in the top 15 reflects an interesting fundamental trend, where the US only restates
2018, but spending in the US grew 6.6%. Chinese spending also rose 6.6% compared to 2018 data, bu
is slowing, in line with Beijing's relative
ed once again in 2018. However, it remains
er this trend will continue given Washington's plans for increased defense spending
ng its financial assistance for allied defense budgets. This has been
abia, Russia and India maintain their
interesting fundamental trend, where the US only restates

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
While spending is still rising in Ch
two countries, which has narrowed since 2010, has increased once again in 2018 (Figure 2). H
it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue given Washington's plans for increased defense
spending that is more limited in FY2021.
exemplified primarily in the reductions for the Foreign Military Funding program and to Inis. Both
China and the US devote significant amounts to res
(defense investment), but perhaps not surprisingly, given the differences in the amount they allocate
to defense, The US spends almost three times more than China at US $ 201 billion and US $ 74.4 billion
respectively. This means that in 2019 US defense investment alone is greater than the total defense
budget of China. Meanwhile, Russia for 2020 has announced a total of 1,500 trillion rubles (US $ 21.7
billion). This would put Russia in third place globally for d
spending almost ten times less than the US.
The US is dedicating a much higher proportion of its defense budget to procurement and R&D than
NATO allies. European countries increase defense investment as part of total e
countries with available data, funds increase from 19.8% in 2018 to 23.1% in 2019, but the equivalent
category reaches 29% in the US.
iatif European Prevention.
Military Balance
Rank Country
1 United States
2 China
3 Saudi Arabia
4 Russia
5 India
6 United Kingdom
7 France
8 Japan
9 Germany
10 South Korea
11 Brazil
12 Italy
13 Australia
14 Israel
15 Iraq
Sources: IISS
While spending is still rising in China, the pace of growth is slowing, in line with Beijing's relative
two countries, which has narrowed since 2010, has increased once again in 2018 (Figure 2). H
spending that is more limited in FY2021.
China and the US devote significant amounts to research and development (R&D) and procurement
ively. This means that in 2019 US defense investment alone is greater than the total defense
billion). This would put Russia in third place globally for defense investment spending, but with
spending almost ten times less than the US.
NATO allies. European countries increase defense investment as part of total e
category reaches 29% in the US.
Balance United States defense investment is thus worth
about four times that of the combined
European countries. For small countries in
Europe, as in other regions, the proportion of
investment in the total budget sometimes
seems quite high, but this is because one large
acquisition can significantly increase
procurement spending, even if only for a limited
time span.
Although China lags behind the US in terms of
overall spending on defense investment, China
dominates the Asian region, contributing nearly
60% of defense investment in Asia in 2019.
When placed in a regional
Chinese investment is such that including the
amount means that the share the average
defense investment in Asia's total budget
reaches 30.9% in 2019.
Spending
(US$ bn)
684.6
181.1
78.4
61.6
60.5
54.8
52.3
48.6
48.5
39.8
27.5
27.1
25.5
22.6
20.5
ina, the pace of growth is slowing, in line with Beijing's relative
two countries, which has narrowed since 2010, has increased once again in 2018 (Figure 2). However,
earch and development (R&D) and procurement
ively. This means that in 2019 US defense investment alone is greater than the total defense
efense investment spending, but with
NATO allies. European countries increase defense investment as part of total expenditure, for
United States defense investment is thus worth
mes that of the combined
European countries. For small countries in
Europe, as in other regions, the proportion of
investment in the total budget sometimes
seems quite high, but this is because one large
acquisition can significantly increase
pending, even if only for a limited
Although China lags behind the US in terms of
overall spending on defense investment, China
dominates the Asian region, contributing nearly
60% of defense investment in Asia in 2019.
When placed in a regional context, the scale of
Chinese investment is such that including the
amount means that the share the average
defense investment in Asia's total budget

Excluding China, this figure fell back to 23.4%, broadly in line with figures in Europe. This proportion
remains fairly consistent over time, as if to indicate that Asia is involved in an 'arms race'. Nonetheless,
defense investment is increasing in some countries where threat perceptions from China are growing,
such as in South Korea (31% in 2018, 32% in 2019), Japan (17% in 2018, 22% in 2019) and Australia
(20% in 2018, 24% in 2019).
Overall, despite the growth of defense spending in other regions of the world, the US still far exceeds
defense spending in other countries, both rivals and allies, and has accelerated steps to remain largely
ahead. Regarding, the massive US investment in defense procurement and R&D still provides it with
advancements in technological and military capabilities compared to other countries in the world.
Nuclear Back Racing
The American military is indeed stronger than before, but does not have the capacity to fight in more
than one war with another large force. That's because its enemies, such as China and Russia, have
ambitiously developed their respective militaries, as according to the US Military Strength Index 2020.
Russia is always shadowing the United States, while China intends to displace and to develop its
influence in every region where American influence is weakening .
Military modernization efforts carried out by Russia and China have produced results. Russia is
investing in hypersonic weapons, the ability to intervene through cyberspace, and modern aircraft to
project its power abroad, sending bombers into Venezuela and South Africa. The use of hybrid warfare
and the manipulation of information combined with this technology gave Russia an asymmetrical
advantage in many of the regions it operated. Russia has a number of steps ahead in modernizing its
technology and defense strategy.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
China has invested in anti-ship ballistic, hypersonic, and artifi
significantly increasing the size and capabilities of their naval forces. Its aim is certainly to challenge
America's superiority in the Pacific.
In terms of nuclear capabilities, the US is less utilizing existing tech
that can be designed to be safer, more effective, and can give the United States a better choice to
strengthen a credible prevention system.
Nuclear weapons remain dangerous because of their unique destructive nature. The d
nuclear power and doctrine, influenced by quantitative and qualitative changes to nuclear weapons.
Quantitatively, there has not been any significant change, even reduced, but qualitatively,
technological changes are so rapid, and changes in
affect the improvement of the quality of nuclear weapons.
The number of nuclear explosive missile weapons around the world in 2020 is around 13,410 units,
this number is reduced when compared to 2019 at 14,46
nuclear weapons is due to demolition due to aging by the United States and Russia, as well as some
that are deactivated as part of the New START agreement between the United States and Russia.
In some cases, estimates of global nuclear weapons inventory are based on the technical capacity of
certain facilities, which allows to extrapolate the production capability, number and type of warheads
and related delivery vehicles held by each of the nine known or susp
ship ballistic, hypersonic, and artificial intelligence missiles, while
America's superiority in the Pacific.
In terms of nuclear capabilities, the US is less utilizing existing technology to build modern warheads
strengthen a credible prevention system.
Nuclear weapons remain dangerous because of their unique destructive nature. The d
technological changes are so rapid, and changes in the world economy so quickly, quite dominantly
affect the improvement of the quality of nuclear weapons.
this number is reduced when compared to 2019 at 14,465 units. The reduction in the number of
estimates of global nuclear weapons inventory are based on the technical capacity of
and related delivery vehicles held by each of the nine known or suspected nuclear weapons countries.
cial intelligence missiles, while
nology to build modern warheads
Nuclear weapons remain dangerous because of their unique destructive nature. The development of
the world economy so quickly, quite dominantly
5 units. The reduction in the number of
estimates of global nuclear weapons inventory are based on the technical capacity of
ected nuclear weapons countries.

TASNIM ILMIARDHI
Some of the achievements of nuclear weapons in 2020 include, among others, Russia has developed a
nuclear hypersonic avangard with a speed developed by Russia with explosive power many times the
existing capacity so far. Russia claims this missile can reach speeds of 25mach, or times the speed of
sound, thus this missile can reach the United States in just 15 minutes from the launch point in Russia.
The missile is also capable of carrying 2 mega tons of warheads and c
states at once. Russia also claims, until now the Avangard missile is the most sophisticated and there is
no technology that can withstand the ability of this missile.
In the development of nuclear weapons technology, Russi
its nuclear weapons mobilization technology. In addition to silos on land with such high rocket
capability, Russia modified its submarines and nuclear missiles.
Bulava nuclear missiles and Sineva and Layner missiles, are one of Russia's mainstay nuclear weapons
with high mobility capabilities that are not detected, in order to offset the combat capability of the
American submarine fleet which has always been dominant.
The achievement of Russian nuclear weapons technology, can be considered as a
a new warhead race" after the cold war. Russia has always reli
and Sarmat which had been legendary before
Unlike Russia, as a rival during the Cold War, the United States can be considered somewhat behind in
the achievement of nuclear weapons technology, although in other military technology capabilities the
United States also has advantages. The United Stat
warheads to supplement its submarine nuclear weapons. It could be that the invention of this
technology was to anticipate nuclear weapons agreements, implementation in real war situations, and
even business interests if these weapons sold in the market, as a result of the effectiveness and
far. Russia claims this missile can reach speeds of 25mach, or times the speed of
The missile is also capable of carrying 2 mega tons of warheads and capable of blowing up 3 American
no technology that can withstand the ability of this missile.
In the development of nuclear weapons technology, Russia is at the forefront. Russia is also upgrading
capability, Russia modified its submarines and nuclear missiles. In addition to, Borei
Sineva and Layner missiles, are one of Russia's mainstay nuclear weapons
American submarine fleet which has always been dominant.
e achievement of Russian nuclear weapons technology, can be considered as a
race" after the cold war. Russia has always relied on ICBM Topol, Yars, Voevoda
which had been legendary before and modified.
United States also has advantages. The United States actually reduced the capacity of its nuclear
nterests if these weapons sold in the market, as a result of the effectiveness and
far. Russia claims this missile can reach speeds of 25mach, or times the speed of
apable of blowing up 3 American
a is at the forefront. Russia is also upgrading
Borei-class submarines
Sineva and Layner missiles, are one of Russia's mainstay nuclear weapons
e achievement of Russian nuclear weapons technology, can be considered as a "declaration to start
ed on ICBM Topol, Yars, Voevoda/Satan,
es actually reduced the capacity of its nuclear
nterests if these weapons sold in the market, as a result of the effectiveness and

efficiency of weapons. It seems that America prefers nuclear weapons as tactical weapons rather than
strategic nuclear weapons as Russia does.
The United States uses W76-2 nuclear warhead technology which is only capable of 5-7 kilo tons to
supplement the Trident II missile that has been used by its submarine fleet. With such a capacity, it is
probable that nuclear weapons can be applied in the real field. The United States has continued to rely
on Minuteman III missiles as nuclear weapons launched from the mainland, and Trident II from
submarine launches. So far the United States has indeed excelled in naval capability, and indeed has
the largest fleet capacity in the world.
Russia Nuclear Arsenal 2020
No Type Remarks
1 Satan/Voevoda
R-36M2 [SS-18]
 46 units in silo-based systems
 heavy missiles
 availabe for 36 warhead
2 Avangard
UR-100NUTTKh [SS-19 Mod 4]
 2 units system
 hypersonic system [25mach]
 2 megaton warhead
3 Topol-M
[SS-27]
 60 units silo-based systems
 45 units in road-mobile systems
 18 units in mobile systems
4 Yars
RS-24 [SS-27 Mod 2].
 14 units silo-based systems
 135 units in mobile systems
5 Sarmat
RS-28
 silo-based systems
 super heavy ICBM
 designed to deliver the 50 megaton
 potentially 100 megaton [Tsar Bomba] warhead
6 Bulava
RSM-56 MIRV-equipped [SS-NX-30]
Borei class submarine
7 Sineva & Layner
R-29RMU [Mod 2]
Delta IV class submarine
8 Poseidon
[T-15 Mod]
 megaton warhead
 108 knot underwater speed
 underwater stealth drone nuclear weapon
 16 units
 Oscar class submarine [Belgorod]
 Borei class submarine [Khabarovsk]
Russia's missile system is also equipped with a fundamentally new level of defense, namely;
camouflage, extensive use of electronic jamming, and active defense with the ABM system S-400
and S-500 with high accuracy, and hypersonic Tsirkon cruise missiles.
TASS; other sources
In addition, the United States is also updating nuclear bombers from what has been available so far, as
a medium in mobilizing its nuclear weapons. This strategy is carried out because the use of bombers is
faster than conventional nuclear weapons and radar is not detected. Besides this strategy is also a
technological efficiency, which can still be used even if not on the scale of nuclear war, in addition to
accuracy of the target of attack. The mastery of United States bomber technology is the most superior
at this time. Several types of bombers with various classes are operated by this country. Call it the SR-

71, SR-72, F-117 fighter bomber, the classic B-52, B-1, B-1B, B-2 bombers and most recently the B-21
and SR-72 bomber aircraft.
United States Nuclear Arsenal 2020
No Type Remarks
1 Minuteman III  400 units in silo-based systems
 heavy missiles
 W87s warhead
2 B61 [Mod 12]  180 units
 tactical nuclear bombs
 air-based delivery systems
 bomber aircraft
3 Trident II  available for 14 warheads
 sea-based ballistic missile
 Ohio class submarine
 W76-2 warhead
 W93 warhead [Mod]
various sources
The B-21 bomber is claimed to be free of radar detection with a broad range, from the United States
to Russia without refilling fuel, can carry out bombings in various locations, with high accuracy and
controlled and measured, also has combat efficacy other than war nuclear. Of course it also has
economic value as a commodity of defense technology trade.
Meanwhile, the SR-72 is a bomber cruise aircraft development of the previous SR-71 aircraft. This
bomber has the ability to fly with a speed of 6 mach, six times the speed of sound, with an altitude of
flying 80,000 feet (24,000 m). It requires special technology that must be created to operate at such
speeds.
America qualitatively has the most submarine fleets as a medium in mobilizing its nuclear weapons for
attacks worldwide, and is an advantage in the ability to mobilize dispersal and the ability to attack
suddenly against a country in the event of a nuclear war. Noted that America has 14 Ohio class
submarines equipped with Trident II missiles. However in certain cases the quality of Russian
submarines shows its own advantages.
CHINA ICMB 2020
No Type Remarks
1 DF-41 (CSS-X-10) N/A
2 DF-5A (CSS-4 Mod 2)  20 units
3 DF-31A (CSS-10 Mod 2)  24 units
 road-mobile ICBM
4 DF-31 (CSS-10)  12 units
 road-mobile ICBM
5 DF-4 (CSS-3)  10 units
 silo-based system
various sources

So far, China has the doctrine of 'China no use first' where China will never at any time or under any
circumstances be the first person to use nuclear weapons. The doctrine is held to this day. However,
that does not mean that China will not react if there is a superior military force that has nuclear missile
weapons and the absolute superiority in conventional high-tech weapons is carrying out intense and
continuous attacks on the main strategic targets of China and China does not have a good military
strategy to fight the enemy the. This is proven by the increasing capability of China's nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Arsenal Technology 2020
Rank Country Achievement
1 Russia  Hypersonic ICBM 25 mach
 2 Megaton warhead
 Modernized submarine for mobility
2 United States  Minimized warhead to ability for real war
 Mini gravity nuclear bomb for nuclear surgery
 New nuclear bomber for mobility
 Hypersonic nuclear bomber aircraft 6 mach
3 China  Increasing warhead
various sources
However, unlike the United States, China builds its nuclear weapons to survive. The warhead is not
combined with the missile. China's nuclear-armed submarines do not constantly go out to sea on
armed patrols. This explains the nuclear warheads and missiles that drive them are controlled by two
separate command chains. China reacted to unite and launch it after China was attacked with nuclear
weapons.
New Normal
The presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is not yet known to end, has shaken global stability,
both economic, geopolitical and geostrategic as well as military power. This crisis has created a new
culture and civilization for human beings on earth. Economic awakening is the main target in the 'New
Normal' phase as a form of compromise in the presence of COVID-19. The shift and emergence of new
powers is a necessity in the dynamics of world reality.
The world will familiarize itself with the presence of a new global order, including in this case a new
civilization that accompanies humanity. Shortening the distribution and supply chains, localization and
territorial restrictions, even the use of massive artificial intelligence, is an effective step in maintaining
the existence of a nation, in this global health crisis.
Governments of countries in the world will intervene, forcing strategic industries to have a backup
plan and supply reserves for domestic interests in their countries. Although this will have the
consequence of decreased profitability, on the other hand supply stability will increase. The economic
interests of each country become a priority scale in the recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, before
falling further into crisis.

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