This document discusses various scenarios related to the economic impact of ongoing tensions between the United States and China, referred to as the "China Reckoning". It outlines potential outcomes for the global and domestic economies under different scenarios for how US-China relations and trade negotiations progress. These include scenarios where trade tensions continue to weigh on growth or where a deal is reached. It also notes other economic factors like debt and demographic changes that influence the outlook independent of trade policies.
China reckoning 30 sept 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The negative vibes out of China keep getting worse. It wasn't just about Jack Ma, or Alibaba. It wasn’t just about state control of DiDi, or Evergrande, or any other specific target. Suddenly hostile to its own best companies and with debt defaults looming, the Chinese leadership is taking a hammer to the 30-year long investment narrative.
- Is China becoming uninvestable?
- What exposure do US investors face?
- Is talk of systemic risk overdone?
Join us as we revamp our China scenario, and discuss why crypto has been a miserable Yuan hedge, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
Webinar on US government spending and potential economic and market scenarios based on the outcome of President Biden's infrastructure and Build Back Better legislative push.
The pandemic was good to growth stocks. WFH was here to stay, and disruptive innovation was the fragrance of last summer. But as the leaves turned, so did the fortunes of large-cap tech valuations. Q1 2021 brought a doubling in 10Y Treasuries, SPACtacular haircuts, and the very one-sided growth-centric market changed to a broadly economy-focused one.
- Is the growth to value rotation here to stay?
- Is more pain on tech valuations coming?
- Should investors burn the COVID-19 playbook?
For all the Fed’s unprecedented efforts, markets are back on solid footing for now. We could point to central bank moves as successful or come to grips with reality – the Fed has been nationalized. Its cash cannon now belongs to the US Treasury and is preventing economic darwinsim by aiming at bad corporate actors, instead of targeting the most affected people.
– Is Fed + fiscal action succeeding against the coronavirus recession?
– Can the Fed underwrite the whole US economy without massive inflation?
– Is inequality making our recessions worse than necessary?
Join us as we offer a pulse check on coronavirus and introduce a new scenario on the flurry of Fed action, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
For a limited time, HiddenLevers is offering a FREE 30-day trial– find out what makes our brand of economic analysis so valuable right now for your digital client experience
Jobs recovery 26 aug 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The Fed’s asset purchasing should fall with the autumn leaves, but raising interest rates will depend on the jobs recovery. Enhanced unemployment, stimulus checks, food stamps and other aid helped prop up household spending and keep families afloat. But lower-income workers still lag behind those at the top in terms of job gains, with zero growth over the past 13 months.
- How will the labor force change post-pandemic?
- Will worker shortages ease when government benefits end?
- Can tech productivity make up for the loss of human labor?
Join us as we introduce a new scenario on the Jobs Recovery, and determine if wage inflation is good or bad for the economy, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
China reckoning 30 sept 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The negative vibes out of China keep getting worse. It wasn't just about Jack Ma, or Alibaba. It wasn’t just about state control of DiDi, or Evergrande, or any other specific target. Suddenly hostile to its own best companies and with debt defaults looming, the Chinese leadership is taking a hammer to the 30-year long investment narrative.
- Is China becoming uninvestable?
- What exposure do US investors face?
- Is talk of systemic risk overdone?
Join us as we revamp our China scenario, and discuss why crypto has been a miserable Yuan hedge, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
Govt spending 28 oct 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
Webinar on US government spending and potential economic and market scenarios based on the outcome of President Biden's infrastructure and Build Back Better legislative push.
The pandemic was good to growth stocks. WFH was here to stay, and disruptive innovation was the fragrance of last summer. But as the leaves turned, so did the fortunes of large-cap tech valuations. Q1 2021 brought a doubling in 10Y Treasuries, SPACtacular haircuts, and the very one-sided growth-centric market changed to a broadly economy-focused one.
- Is the growth to value rotation here to stay?
- Is more pain on tech valuations coming?
- Should investors burn the COVID-19 playbook?
For all the Fed’s unprecedented efforts, markets are back on solid footing for now. We could point to central bank moves as successful or come to grips with reality – the Fed has been nationalized. Its cash cannon now belongs to the US Treasury and is preventing economic darwinsim by aiming at bad corporate actors, instead of targeting the most affected people.
– Is Fed + fiscal action succeeding against the coronavirus recession?
– Can the Fed underwrite the whole US economy without massive inflation?
– Is inequality making our recessions worse than necessary?
Join us as we offer a pulse check on coronavirus and introduce a new scenario on the flurry of Fed action, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
For a limited time, HiddenLevers is offering a FREE 30-day trial– find out what makes our brand of economic analysis so valuable right now for your digital client experience
Jobs recovery 26 aug 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The Fed’s asset purchasing should fall with the autumn leaves, but raising interest rates will depend on the jobs recovery. Enhanced unemployment, stimulus checks, food stamps and other aid helped prop up household spending and keep families afloat. But lower-income workers still lag behind those at the top in terms of job gains, with zero growth over the past 13 months.
- How will the labor force change post-pandemic?
- Will worker shortages ease when government benefits end?
- Can tech productivity make up for the loss of human labor?
Join us as we introduce a new scenario on the Jobs Recovery, and determine if wage inflation is good or bad for the economy, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
HiddenLevers War Room: Black Swans Are the New Black - Mar 2020hiddenlevers
In the past 10 days we've seen the financial world turn upside down. New black swans are appearing daily and providing reassurance in this time is more important than ever.
HiddenLevers has got your back. Our Economics Research team is working around the clock to keep our scenario content up to date.
In this War Room we will discuss updates to scenarios currently in play:
- Coronavirus
- Negative Rates
- Oil Prices
- Global Recession
We will also show you how to incorporate stress testing into your practice for both the investment committee and client experience. The insights and hard truths about the economy that you will learn here are unparalleled.
After a year of continuous records, the bond market turmoil in 2021 is a rude awakening for many investors. 10y US Treasuries punched through 1.6% last week, and several sectors got pummeled – tech, crypto, and housing. The real economy is climbing back, even sans stimulus, but now market stability is the shaky bit.
- How can US Treasury yields be rising with such low inflation?
- Why do rising rates negatively impact tech + housing + crypto?
- Do rising rates mean the Fed is losing control?
Join us as we intro a new scenario on rapidly rising yields, and examine how they might destroy the snowballing Bitcoin-ARK-Tesla-SPAC speculation cabal, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
War Room - Negative Rates 26 Sept 2019hiddenlevers
Will the US join Europe and Japan in the land of negative rates? The Trump Administration is demanding it, while the Fed approaches with caution. Join us as we introduce a Negative Rates scenario and provide an update on Climate Disasters - in our new unböring 30-min War Room.
Fed taper 15 july 2021 - war-room slides (1)hiddenlevers
After a year (make that 12) of extreme Fed money printing, the US economy seems to be at peak recovery. The Fed was forced to level with us on 2023 rate hikes, and will likely slow asset purchases way sooner. Their decisions will be made against the backdrop of an economy on fire, a problematic labor market, and 10y yields pointing to a slowdown not a pick up.
- What will taper look like?
- Are US Treasuries done collapsing?
- Is the jobs recovery real?
Join us as we introduce a new scenario on Fed Taper, and discuss whether the reopening trade is already over, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
HiddenLevers War Room: Black Swans Are the New Black - Mar 2020hiddenlevers
In the past 10 days we've seen the financial world turn upside down. New black swans are appearing daily and providing reassurance in this time is more important than ever.
HiddenLevers has got your back. Our Economics Research team is working around the clock to keep our scenario content up to date.
In this War Room we will discuss updates to scenarios currently in play:
- Coronavirus
- Negative Rates
- Oil Prices
- Global Recession
We will also show you how to incorporate stress testing into your practice for both the investment committee and client experience. The insights and hard truths about the economy that you will learn here are unparalleled.
After a year of continuous records, the bond market turmoil in 2021 is a rude awakening for many investors. 10y US Treasuries punched through 1.6% last week, and several sectors got pummeled – tech, crypto, and housing. The real economy is climbing back, even sans stimulus, but now market stability is the shaky bit.
- How can US Treasury yields be rising with such low inflation?
- Why do rising rates negatively impact tech + housing + crypto?
- Do rising rates mean the Fed is losing control?
Join us as we intro a new scenario on rapidly rising yields, and examine how they might destroy the snowballing Bitcoin-ARK-Tesla-SPAC speculation cabal, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
War Room - Negative Rates 26 Sept 2019hiddenlevers
Will the US join Europe and Japan in the land of negative rates? The Trump Administration is demanding it, while the Fed approaches with caution. Join us as we introduce a Negative Rates scenario and provide an update on Climate Disasters - in our new unböring 30-min War Room.
Fed taper 15 july 2021 - war-room slides (1)hiddenlevers
After a year (make that 12) of extreme Fed money printing, the US economy seems to be at peak recovery. The Fed was forced to level with us on 2023 rate hikes, and will likely slow asset purchases way sooner. Their decisions will be made against the backdrop of an economy on fire, a problematic labor market, and 10y yields pointing to a slowdown not a pick up.
- What will taper look like?
- Are US Treasuries done collapsing?
- Is the jobs recovery real?
Join us as we introduce a new scenario on Fed Taper, and discuss whether the reopening trade is already over, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
Post election chaos 12 nov 2020 - war room slideshiddenlevers
Monday morning quarterbacking is finally possible a week after US elections. The clean result was a nice surprise, but is now fully priced in on the upside. The next few months before inauguration will be filled with a health care system unable to cure record covid infections, and a Fed unable to cure main street ailments.
What is the 2021 impact of divided government?
Will the govt stimulus delays tip vulnerable sectors into the abyss?
What’s the lag between the vaccine market boost and GDP normalcy?
Take a look as we re-assess the shape of the recovery and learn the history of toxic lame ducks.
Govt butt heads War Room slides -- 01-24-2019hiddenlevers
Just as the government shutdown started, markets got their mojo back. US indexes are up over 10% since Christmas while pundits, including Jamie Dimon, project a dire economic impact of a US government in such disarray.
- Is gridlock a GDP killer?
- When will govt dysfunction impact markets?
- What is the economic impact of a Trump Wall?
Join us as we introduce a new scenario – DC Delinquency, and consider all possibilities, including the potential impact of another downgrade on US Treasuries.
Description: Industry Challenges: Mortgages and Tariffs
Lauren Baker, Economist, ITR Economics
Rising costs of building materials have become a big challenge for the nation's home building sector. Tariffs and the possibility of an escalating trade war threaten the profitability or homebuilders, the housing recovery and the affordability of homes.
Perhaps you enjoyed the outsized August gains, or at least took comfort in markets getting back to normal. But September hosed you and now there’s uncertainty in every corner — the US election curveball, the tech crash that came too early, Europe’s covid hubris, and a US housing market defying it all. Welcome back to reality in 2020.
– Will Nasdaq correct further?
– Will the election tank markets?
– How does a COVID second wave impact the election?
Take a look as we discuss the US election and other trending scenarios, and learn why Wisconsin might be the real tipping point, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
The SVB State of the Markets report provides a quarterly update on the health and productivity of the global innovation economy. This quarter's report includes a special section on the booming Chinese tech industry.
As Trump forbids US investment in companies with ties to the Chinese military how does this decoupling of investment in China affect your portfolio?
https://youtu.be/5KQ-MTabnFk
Why Should US Investors Worry About China’s Economy?InvestingTips
As noted with Alibaba whose share price is down to $94 a share, investment in China has not done so well of late. But why else should US investors worry about China’s economy?
https://youtu.be/2ovz5L5_k8Q
Emerging countries, mainly China, are changing the world economic order. This presentation explains how they do it and what kind of competition the "old countries" are now facing.
Research: US Manufacturers Digitizing at Twice the Rate of Other Businesses; 2020 Global Trade Data Reveals Insights About Future of Manufacturing Sector; Making Sustainability Part of Manufacturing; With Covid-19 Under Control, China’s Economy Surges Ahead.
Read more from here.
#usmanufacturing #ukmanufacturing #manufacturing #manufacturingsector #sustainability #mrpsoftware #mrpsystem #erpsystem #mrpeasy #manufacturingsoftware #manufacturingnews
Markets are priced for a soft landing and bad news could disrupt returns but based on starting yields it would be hard to get a negative return. How will high yield bond spreads be influenced by the economy's ability to achieve a soft landing?
Will the economy experience a soft economic landing as inflation decreases or will the change to inflation be more than expected? Is a hard economic landing still possible?
Will geopolitical sentiment resemble the post Berlin Wall era and cause an uproar in the the equity markets? Or will hostilities towards the US increase?
What impacts will the Midterm Election have on the strength of the economy? Will we experience typical Midterm performance or will inflationary pressures control the market?
What impacts will the Midterm Election have on on the strength of the economy? Will we experience typical Midterm performance or will inflationary pressures control the market?
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
4. PRE-ELECTION RALLY: Trump Toolkit
sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, WSJ, Bloomberg, Mercury News, Washington Post
PRESSURE FED
BIPARTISANSHIPAPPROVE MORE VISAS
TRADE WAR VICTORY
- real deal
- optics win
- abandon
H1-Bs flat
since 2018
OPM
5. PRE-ELECTION RALLY: Trump Toolkit
sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, WSJ, Bloomberg, Mercury News, Washington Post
PRESSURE FED
BIPARTISANSHIPAPPROVE MORE VISAS
TRADE WAR VICTORY
- real deal
- optics win
- abandon
H1-Bs flat
since 2018
OPM
UNLIKELY
WORKED IN 2019, NO MORE IN 2020
NAFTA REPLACEMENT
DEC SHUTDOWN AVERTED
6. CHINA RECKONING: Trade War Impact
sources: HiddenLevers, United Nations, Int’l Business Times, Bloomberg, Business Insider
TRADE WAR TIMELINE
7. CHINA RECKONING – Bigger Issues than Trade War
sources: HiddenLevers, Bank of Finland, Bank of International Settlements, Fox Business, CNBC
Growth near
US levels
China Corporate Debt-to-GDP
Manufacturing exodus driven by China
labor costs, not only trade war
China GDP Growth + Forecast
55% of Chinese pigs dead
pork crisis amplified trade war impact
Debt far exceeds
USA levels
8. CHINA RECKONING: Is De-globalization Working for US?
sources: HiddenLevers, CNBC / Nomura, Nikkei, US Census Bureau
WINNERS
Vietnam phones / furniture / data processors
Taiwan computers / phones
Chile copper / soybeans
Malaysia integrated circuits / semiconductors
Argentina agricultural commodities
LOSERS
China MANUFACTURING
CONSUMERS
USA AGRICULTURE
MANUFACTURING
CONSUMERS
9. New
Silk Road
BASELINE
GOOD
S&P 500
2550
-20%
S&P 500
3400
+7%
S&P 500
3350
+5%Manufacturing
Exodus
UGLY
China Recession
NEGATIVE GROWTH
CURRENTLY MASKED BY
GOVT SPENDING
CHINA CREATES ECONOMIC
ECO-SYSTEM WITH NO US
INVOLVEMENT
RELOCATION OF MNC
FACTORIES DUE TO RISING
LABOR COST +
TRADE FRICTION
CHINA RECKONING: Scenario Outcomes
China GDP
0%
(-6)
China GDP
+7.5%
(+1.2)
China GDP
+4.5%
(-1.5)
Shanghai
3650
+20%
Shanghai
2840
-6%
Shanghai
1800
-40%
10. China + EM
Rebound
BASELINE
GOOD
S&P 500
2550
-20%
S&P 500
3715
+16%
S&P 500
3360
+5%Low Rates Ease
US Pain
UGLY
China Recession
DEC 2019 TARIFFS MIGHT
HAVE TRIGGERED
CHINA CRASH AND
CHAIN REACTION
EM CODEPENDENCY
WORK BOTH WAYS
FED LOWERED RATES TO
1.5% WHICH JUICED
US ECONOMY
TRADE WAR: Scenario Outcomes
GDP
0.6%
(-1.4)
GDP
+3.1%
(+1.1)
GDP
+2.5%
(+0.4)
10y Bond
2.25%
10y Bond
2.0%
10y Bond
1.75%
11. CHINA RECKONING: What to Say
US halting DEC 2019 tariffs may have been
averting an economic Cuban Missile Crisis
Trump took optics victory due to US politics,
but could have gotten a better deal based on
US economic strength
China Recession risk outlives the trade war
Big winner in US-China trade war is Vietnam
