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Snow and ice coverage affected by climate change in Antarctic 1
The Effects of Snow and Ice Coverage on Climate Changes in East vs. West Antartica
Roland Reyna, Leonardo Quiroz, and Apolonio Reyes
The University of Texas at San Antonio

Abstract
Global Warming in Antarctica has been an issue with scientists. The major concern is that the ice
shelves and ice covers are becoming more sea ice. This causes an increase in global sea level.
Global warming is affected by the increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) and ozone depletion.
Scientists study Antarctica by studying the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) and its patterns on
how it influences the climate there. GHGs have steadily been increasing since the 1750s, which
in turn affects radiative forcing (RF), and RF is a major factor in climate change. It is observed
that GHG and climate change have a coupled relationship; one affects the other directly. By
testing GHG through the use of polar cores researchers get an understanding of how the climate
was in earlier times and are able to predict future climate conditions. Researchers have had
trouble with accuracy due to the different methods of testing and studying data by many
researchers, so until more stringent ways of analyzing data are developed we will always have
certain inaccuracies in our results. In addition, the ozone has some kind of connection in the
increase of sea surface temperature (SST), changes in the stratosphere, and discharges of ozone-
depleting gases. We also demonstrate the change in atmospheric circulation connected to SST.
We explore the ozone and its effects in climate change in the Antarctic with a result that it is
warming up.

Introduction
Global warming is a worldwide issue, but scientists focus on certain regions specifically.
Areas such as the Artic and Antarctica are major concerns of ice meltage. Over four thousand
meters thick, Antarctica’s ice level is especially significant and will be analyzed in depth below.
Hu and Fu (2009) reported that the ozone hole has affected climate change over
Antarctica and has played a big role in increasing SST. The authors have provided an idea about
whether the increase of SST will cause a rise in temperature in the stratosphere. Also, the ozone
has affected in the changes in atmospheric circulation and even the ozone-depleting gases. In this
report, we explore that ozone hole’s effects on climate change. We show that the Southern
Hemisphere may be warming up by the ozone hole (Thompson et al., 2011). Scientists have not
proven that the warming of the Southern Hemisphere is due to natural causes or is affected by
human activity.
Global warming affecting Antarctica
According to Petit et al. (1999), ice meltage is a small factor in global warming. The
whole process is a positive feedback loop. As temperature rises, ice will melt. When this ice
melts, GHGs are released such as CO2 that is trapped in the ice shelves. A high concentration of
gases in the atmosphere raises the temperature. Warmer air has the ability to hold more
precipitation and humidity. Therefore, the cycle repeats and adds to itself; in addition, Antarctica
is mainly thinning out its ice core and extending its land mass and growing more sea land than
ice land. Sea land is the ice that grows and thaws in Antarctica in the winter and summer. Ice
land is the actual ice core of Antarctica that stays snow/ice throughout the year. Petit et al. (1999)
discussed the climate of Antarctica by using Vostok Lake. This lake is approximately four

thousand meters thick; this helped scientists study the history of this lake through the different
layers of ice. The structure of the lake greatly defines the kind of climate that Antarctica
receives. The authors recorded data of the progression and reduction of the ice sheet over many
years. The meltage of the ice created high albedo and GHGs. This produced high temperatures
and made the ice land into sea land. The image below (Figure 1) shows a comparison between
temperature and sea ice in Antarctica. It also shows what is sea land and ice land. This graphic is
a combination of many satellites. All of these measure every aspect of Antarctica.

Figure 1
In comparing West vs. East Antarctica, ice meltage varies greatly between the two. East
Antarctica has a greater land mass than the West, yet, as seen from Figure 2, the west has more
ice meltage. In short, Antarctica is melting from the warm temperatures on the island. The ice
that melted turns into water that surrounds the land mass. In the winter, the water freezes but
only as extensions to the island.
Figure 2
Schneider et al. (2011) discussed the toll of austral (south) spring on the westward side of
Antarctica. In the east, there is practically no change in the ice shelf. SAM is a mode that
actually induces more GHGs and depletes the ozone. Scientists have studied this mode and
recorded that this mode plays a key factor on East Antarctica in the summer and less of a factor
in winter on West Antarctica, controlling the global warming to a certain extent. The article also
discusses the atmospheric circulation anomalies (abnormal atmospheric changes, which occur
frequently in West Antarctica), another contributing factor to the ice meltage. Schneider et al.
(2011) reported that the main reason for higher meltage in the west section than the east is likely
that there is more moisture and heat being pulled to that region. The west side is simply a
shoreline, and the east contains the majority of the land mass. Between 1957–2006, West
Antarctica warmed an average of .18˚C/decade. To measure this data accurately, scientists
studied SAM patterns (and the topography levels at different frequencies) and compared the data.

Another method of data collecting is thermal infrared measurement, but it is not precise because
these measurements can be only calculated under clear skies. From these calculations, scientists
can see the rate at which the ice is melting.
Greenhouse gasses affect Antarctica
How do GHGs affect climate change in Antarctica and in turn the production and
reduction of snow and ice coverage? According to Ghude et al. (2009) the concentration of
GHGs has increased since the 1750s when the world went from craftsman-made wares to
industry and machine fabrications. GHGs such as CO2, CH4, and N2O are considered to be
dominant factors in global warming and climate change. Climate change is affected by RF,
defined by Ramaswamy et al. (2001) as “the change in net irradiance at the tropopause after
allowing for stratospheric temperatures to re-adjust to radiative equilibrium, but with the surface
and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values” (sec.2.2). RF is
used to assess and compare the anthropogenic temperatures and natural drivers of climate
change. Many contributing factors affect radiative forcing like the sun, clouds, and GHGs. In
Table 1 below, RF is calculated using a formula created by Myher et al. (1998).

Figure 3 below shows the rise of GHGs in Antarctica between 1983-2004. Ghude et al.
(2009) also stated that the rise in temporal evolution CO2 RF increased by 10% over the last 22
years since 1983, N2O by 5% and CH4 increased by 10%. These numbers for the GHGs seem to
be slowly increasing since the industrial boom which then doubled the amount of certain
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Figure 3 (Ghude et al. 2009)
According to the authors, an Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) model has

been used to make a global warming simulation that studies the effects of greenhouse gas
concentrations on the earth’s climates for the next fifty years. Ghude et al. (2009) predicted that
the CO2 and N2O concentrations will rise steadily over the next fifty years at a rate of 1.8ppm/yr.
and .70ppm/yr. until 2005 due to emissions trends for the last ten years. Conversely gases such
as CH4 will decrease at a rate of .5% and CFC-11/12 will decrease by a rate of 1% over the next
fifty years and CFC- 12 will be negative in future years due to the Montreal Protocol. Ghude et
al. (2009) suggested that due to current trends and projections of climate forcing they can predict
global warming for the next several decades at a rate of 0.2 ± 0.06̊ C per decade.
Data shows that the snow and ice coverage of Antarctica has a direct relationship to
GHGs. GHGs can cause an increase in temperatures; they also contribute to global warming,
which causes a feedback loop in the ice and snow in Antarctica. This feedback loop causes
melting of ice and snow and reduces the reflection of the sun’s energy and absorbs more of the
solar energy and lessens the ice and snow coverage over Antarctica. Brook et al. (2013) states
“that atmospheric CO2 and the climate are closely coupled” (p. 1042); the authors use polar ice
cores to get their data to prove their connection. When snow falls over a long period of time it
forms layers and layers of solid ice, and as the ice forms it traps pockets of air, and though it has
happened long ago it can give a detailed history of the amount of CO2 from a specific time
frame. Polar ice cores are like time machines enabling us to return and study a different era.
Brook et al. (2013) also posed a question about whether or not climate changes affect CO2
concentrations or if it is the other way around and CO2 is what is causing the climate changes.
The authors stated that they have a difficult time determining the answer because when the air
gets trapped, the snow pack becomes dense before it can become solid and form ice bubbles.
This means that air that gets locked in is considerably younger than the ice that forms around it.

Brook et al. (2013) reported more factors that make it difficult when trying to say what came
first, the CO2 or the climate change, because one interacts with the other. Another problem is that
the authors did not set a standard for checking their collected CO2 and temperature data. The
authors used the last deglaciation because it produced the best and clearest CO2 data, and the
time frame was roughly between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago; the ice core is European Project
for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C.
Brook et al. (2013) presented the following from Perrenin et al. (2013) and Pedro et al.
(2012) in Figure 4 below showing CO2 concentrations and averages of the temperature proxy
records for the last deglaciation. Brook et al. (2013) explained:
Pedro et al. (2012) used existing CO2 and temperature proxy data from coastal Antarctic
cores and the temperature anomaly is presented in standard deviation units (the number
of standard deviations from the mean of the record) to illustrate the average timing of
temperature change. Parrenin et al.’s record is the average temperature anomaly for all
the records they combine (in °C), relative to modern conditions. Using largely
independent methods and data, both studies indicate a very tight coupling between
regional Antarctic temperatures and CO2. Pedro et al. (2012) concluded that CO2 was
behind temperature by about 400 years on average over the entire deglaciation and could
not exclude the possibility of a slight lead. The authors also noted that the results didn’t
surprise them due to the carbon cycle and climate being so interconnected. (p.1043)

Figure 4
Climate change affected by Ozone
The discharge of CO2 and other GHGs by human activity will guide the extensive climate
changes in Antarctica’s surface. However, according to Thompson et al. (2011) and Son et al.
(2009), climate change is not just affected by the increase of atmospheric GHGs. Both authors
suggested that the discharges of ozone-depleting gases also cause noticeable changes in surface
climate, all the way through the radiative and dynamical effects of the Antarctic ozone hole.
These suggestions had lately been examined and the big picture is still lacking. Thompson et al.
(2011) found that the influence of the ozone hole on surface climate is very noticeable during the
austral summers and resembles the pattern of a enlarged southern hemisphere climate variability,
the SAM, which is a ring of climate variability that encircles the south pole and extends out to
the latitudes of New Zealand. Thompson et al. (2011) also suggested that the influence of the

ozone hole on the SAM has led to a series of historic summertime surface climate changes.
Thompson et al. (2011) predicted that over the next few decades the ozone hole will recover and
that increased GHGs are likely to have important but opposite effects on the SAM. However,
Son et al. (2009) shows an estimated ozone recovery that will possibly slow down future climate
change resulting from increased GHGs, even though GHGs might increase surface temperature
over Antarctica.
Long lasting climate changes in the Southern Hemisphere are caused by a range of factors,
including a rise of atmospheric GHGs and changes in SST. Thompson et al. (2011) suggested
that they are also guided by Antarctic ozone depletion and recuperation. The authors found that
in the relationship between the development of the Antarctic ozone hole and Southern
Hemisphere surface climate changes branch from three factors: first, a sturdy mixture involving
stratosphere variability and the SAM on a variety of timescales, not just in involvement with the
ozone hole; second, the recreation of the connections that link the ozone hole and the SAM in a
hierarchy of models forced with either an increase in ozone-depleting substances or reduction of
the stratosphere ozone; and finally, the abstract of expectation that the climate reaction to
exterior forcing will development onto interior form of the climate structure such as the SAM.
According to Thompson et al. (2011), for the future of the twenty-first century, climate
change experiments expose a strong SAM reaction to both potential increases in GHGs and
recuperation of the ozone hole. According to their data ( shaded in Fig. 5), ozone recuperation is
expected to direct to a negative tendency in the SAM that is restricted to the summer months
(Fig. 5a). But GHGs are expected to guide to a positive tendency in the SAM that lengthen
across both summer and winter (Fig. 5b). The authors suggested at some point in summer over

the next 50 years or so, the results of ozone recuperation on the SAM are estimated to cancel out
the results of GHGs. Nevertheless, through other seasons, the growth of GHGs will probably
force a tendency in the SAM on the way to its high catalog polarity that is unrestricted by ozone
recuperation. The authors predicted that the SAM might account for the climate change expected
in the Southern Hemisphere.
Figure 5, Time sequence of the SAM from brief experimentation enforced with
time-varying ozone-depleting substance and GHG. The outcomes are from research published
by Thompson et al (2011). a, Forced with ozone-depleting substances; b, forced with GHG. The
SAM catalog is distinguished as the leading major factor time sequence of 850-hPa Z anomalies
20–90° .Lines symbolize the 50-year low-pass ensemble mean response for summer (solid black)
and winter (dashed blue). The grey tracing represents ± one average deviation of the three group
members about the group mean. The long-standing means of the time sequence are random and
are set to zero for the era 1970–1975. Earlier period forces are based on observational
approximation; future forces are based on data gather by Thompson et al. (2011).

Hu and Fu (2009) showed major stratospheric warming over a large section of the
Antarctic polar region in the winter and spring seasons. Their data showed maximum warming in
September and October, when it was between 7 and 8˚C. Observations from 1979–2006
determined that this warming is connected with increasing wave activity from the troposphere
into the stratosphere. The authors suggested that the warming was caused by enhanced wave-
driven dynamical heating. They had illustrated that the increase of warmth in the Antarctic
stratosphere has correlations with SST. The findings of Hu and Fu (2009) suggested that the
increase of temperature in the Antarctic stratosphere is possibly provoked by an increase of the
SST. If the SST continues to rise as a consequence of GHG increase, it would cause the
Antarctic stratosphere to continue warming and cause recuperation of the Antarctic ozone hole.
Orr et al. (2012) credits Hu and Fu (2009) and Steig et al. (2009) for reporting these
patterns of temperature changes in Antarctica. Further, Steig et al. (2009) and Orr et al. (2012)
theorized that the increase of the circumpolar western winds is responsible for these temperature
changes and for increasing the size of the stratospheric ozone hole. Orr et al. (2012) investigated
the dynamical characteristics of the data and suggested possible mechanisms. From this Orr et al.
(2012) suggested the following: An initial radiative growth of the lower-stratosphere winds as an
outcome of ozone depletion conditions the polar vortex so that a smaller amount of planetary
waves reproduces up from the troposphere, resulting in weaker planetary waves. This causes
additional intensity in the vortex, which results in reduction in upward planetary waves and starts
a positive feedback mechanism in which the weaker wave and the connected intensified winds
are forced downward to the tropopause. In the troposphere the mid latitude jet shifts towards the
pole in involvement with increases in the synoptic wave fluxes of heat and momentum. On the
other hand, these observations are considerably incomplete due to the sparseness and the short

period of the observations. Steig et al. (2009) illustrated that major warming exceeds the
Antarctic Peninsula to cover the majority of West Antarctica, a region of warming much larger
than in the past. The authors suggested that the West Antarctic warming has gone beyond 0.1 °C
per decade over the past 50 years.
Conclusion
It can be seen that global warming plays a role in changing the ice level not only in
Antarctica but other ice land masses as well. As time passes, global warming is becoming more
of an issue to scientists because subtle changes in the ice level can drastically change the climate
of the earth. Forecasting the ice level and how it will affect Earth’s climate is biased because the
weather is never constant and is difficult to determine, but by studying from the patterns that
Antarctica is taking, scientists can make a good judgment in pronouncing that over the next
hundred years, global warming will increase and extend over longer periods.
As seen from data and graphs, one of geologists’ and scientists’ main concerns is the
issue of ice meltage. One of the contributing factors to the meltage of ice in Antarctica is global
warming. Many factors affect global warming. The ozone layer, GHGs, and other factors change
the climate in Antarctica. GHGs can affect climate change, but climate change can also be
affected by GHGs. We know that there has been a steady increase in the amount of GHGs since
the industrial age and that there are predictions of increased levels in CO2 and N2O
concentrations for the next fifty years.
Scientists may not know the total connection among the ozone hole, changes in SST, and
the SAM because the experimentation is bounded by three main limitations. First, the research
may not have a quantitative theory for interactions involving the stratospheric and tropospheric
circulations. Second, climate in the Southern Hemisphere is complex and the models are only

approximations of what is happening in Antarctica. Finally, the available models are supported
only by a small amount of experiments. The data that we came across in our research shows
some suggestion of climate change affecting ice coverage in Antarctica’s land mass. Future
research must address the other possible factors that affect climate change in Antarctica and
worldwide.

References
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