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Complexity Thinking for Scrum Teams
The document explores complexity thinking for Scrum teams, emphasizing the difference between complicated and complex systems and the importance of understanding these distinctions for effective agile management. It highlights the limitations of traditional methodologies in rapidly changing environments and introduces various methods for navigating complexity, such as narrative collection and safe-fail probes. The author advocates for Scrum Masters to enhance their capabilities in complexity thinking and to implement relevant strategies in their practices.
Complexity Thinking for Scrum Teams
- 1. Complexity Thinking for ScrumTeams Anton Rossouw Project Director (AIPM-CPPD) Agile Management Coach
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- 3. Three wise men… “Ithink the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity” Stephen Hawking (1942-!) “I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955) “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)
- 4. Ukiyo-e woodblock print- “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and 1833.
- 5. “When we understandthat slide, we’ll have won the war,” General McChrystal
- 6. http://www.e-ir.info Publication “TheArab Spring of Discontent” http://thenepoproject.org/2012/09/26/greeks-protest-against-austerity-with-general-strike/ http://m3financialsense.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/tahir-square-is-back.html “If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.” Robert Pirzig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. “95% of the problems in business are system driven and only 5% are people driven.” W. Edwards Deming
- 8. Source: Brian Castellani- Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html
- 9. Not Everything isComplex • Complicated System – Interrelated parts. – Linear behaviour, Predictable. – Equal to the sum of its parts. • Complex System – Connected elements. – Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour. – Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence. – Cannot be described by analysing the components alone. Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge
- 10. In Control Un-Control Out of Control Stability Evolution/Revolution Catastrophe Constrictive Principled Conflicted Regimented Dynamic Chaotic Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.
- 11. Non Linear Effects Memory and Culture Evolution or Collapse Energy Flows Learning and Capability “Living” System Constraints Short Range and Simple Interaction Rules Possibility Space Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system Advantage seeking time driven Social Agents
- 12. New definition ofScrum Action orientated sense-making group under pressure and constraints that responds constantly with and within its environment to create emergent value and learning experiences. Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com
- 13. You absorb complexity, you don’t delude yourself into thinking you can eliminate it Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.
- 14. Complex Complicated Unordered Ordered Disorder Chaotic Simple
- 15. Complex Complicated Unknown - Unknowns Known- Unknowns C≈E C===E C≠E C=E Unknowables Known - Knowns Chaotic Simple
- 16. Complex Complicated Weak central, Strong central, strong distributed strong distributed Weak central, Strong central, weak distributed weak distributed Chaotic Simple
- 17. Complex Complicated Exaption Adaption Emergent Specialist Practice Practice Novel Best Practice Practice Actaption Adoption Chaotic Simple
- 18. Complex Complicated Probe Sense Sense Analyse Respond Respond Act Sense Sense Categorise Respond Respond Chaotic Simple
- 19. Exploration JIT Transfer Swarming Complex Complicated Standardisation Convergence Improvement Divergence Collapse Chaotic Simple Imposition
- 20. Warm and Fuzzy Increasing Expert Tyranny of predictability, knowledge Distractions agent breaks the Experts interactions down, stabilizing increasing agent Complex interactions Complicated Knowledge diffused, system increasingly well understood Agent interactions breaking down Issues requiring expert intervention appear Constraints on system and agents appear Obvious solutions and opportunities Chaotic to crises appear High Simple uncertain risk of True catastrophe Mind- Catastrophe Numbing Bureaucracy
- 21. • By 2016,the Cynefin framework will be used by 10% of IT organisations as a sense-making methodology. • Best practice methodologies make us vulnerable to the effects of increasing complexity and ambiguity. • Capture past stories and conduct operational games.
- 22. New Vocabulary • Complexity,Uncertainty, Ambiguity, Constraints. • Intractable problems and Anticipatory Awareness. • Messy coherent systems. • Story telling and micro narrative exploration. • Co-evolutionary coalescence. • Articulated and unarticulated requirements. • Serendipitous discovery. • Exaptation and novel increments • Starvation, Pressure, Perspective Shift.
- 23. Methods • Butterfly Stamping – Familiarisation, highlight perspective differences • Future Backwards – Clarify past perceptions and lessons, planning perspectives • Anecdote Circles – Narrative collection and understanding • Safe-Fail Probes – Find the best solution, test coherence • Ritualised Dissent – Challenge orthodoxy and consensus with diversity
- 29. Safe to FailProbes Future Backwards Butterfly Stamping Anecdote Circles Ritual Dissent Scrum artwork by Kenny Rubin http://scrumbook.wordpress.com
- 30. Where to nowScrum Master ? • Create capability of Complexity Thinking • Establish Cynefin model understanding • Facilitate contextual sense-making • Foster anticipatory awareness • Implement methods during Scrum • Exaptively co-evolve product and business
- 31. Resources http://cognitive-edge.com/ http://www.youtube.com/w atch?v=yXIePVkTY0A http://santafe.edu/ http://comdig.unam.mx/ http://www.plexusinstitute.org/ http://www.complexityexplorer.org/
- 32. anton.rossouw@tabar.com.au 0439 802 017