Gold and silver prices fell sharply this week in response to comments from a Federal Reserve policymaker about a possible tapering of stimulus in October. Gold futures fell 2.7% while silver futures dropped 5.9%, recording their largest declines in several months. Other commodities like oil and base metals also fell on the week. Global stock markets were mixed, with Asian markets rising around 2-3% but European and US markets posting more modest gains around 0.2-2%. Indian stock and commodity markets also declined over the week in response to the Fed comments and a rate hike by the RBI.

1. Commodity Weekly Update 23
rd
Sept 2013
Highlights
Gold fell the most in 11 weeks and silver had the biggest drop in three months as a Federal Reserve policy maker said a “small
taper” in stimulus may occur in October, damping investment demand for the metals. Gold futures for December delivery fell 2.7
percent to settle at $1,332.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest drop for a most-active since July 5. The metal
climbed 1.8 percent this week. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-trade fund backed by the metal, have
dropped 32 percent this year. Silver futures for December delivery fell 5.9 percent to $21.927 an ounce on the Comex, the
biggest drop since June 20. Yesterday, the price surged 8 percent, the most since March 2009, on the Fed announcement. On
the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for October delivery fell 2.7 percent to $1,432.60 an ounce. West Texas
Intermediate dropped to a one-month low as Libya’s oil production rose and the threat of military strikes against Syria receded,
damping concern that Middle East supplies may be cut.WTI crude for October delivery, which expired today, fell $1.72, or 1.6
percent, to $104.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Aug. 21. Prices slid 3.3 percent
this week, the biggest five-day drop since June.
Weekly Movement
Global Futures Price Change Change
(%)
Crude Oil 104.75 -3.46 -3.20
Natural Gas 3.69 0.01 0.27
Heating Oil 300.42 -10.95 -3.52
Gasoline RBOB 268.42 -8.54 -3.08
Gold 1332.5 23.9 1.83
Silver 21.93 0.21 0.97
Copper 332.05 11.7 3.65
MCX Futures Price Change Change
(%)
Crude Oil 6637 -284 -4.10
Natural Gas 231.4 -3.7 -1.57
Copper 466 5.15 1.12
Nickel 875.6 -7.5 -0.85
Lead 129.45 -2.65 -2.01
Zinc 115.3 -3.05 -2.58
Aluminum 110.45 -2.05 -1.82
Gold 29912 -216 -0.72
Silver 49306 -1370 -2.70
NCDEX Futures Price Change Change(%)
Chana 3034 -130 -4.11
Soyabean 3392 -85.5 -2.46
Soyaoil 651.8 -8.2 -1.24
Jeera 13247.5 -252.5 -1.87
Sugarm 2929 -63 -2.12
Coriander 5692 -23 -0.40
Chilli 5574 14 0.25
Global Markets Level Change Change (%)
Asian
Shanghai 2,191.85 -44.37 -1.98
Nikkei 14,742.42 337.75 2.34
HangSeng 23,502.51 587.23 2.56
European
FTSE 6,596.43 12.63 0.19
CAC 4,203.66 89.16 2.17
DAX 8,675.73 166.31 1.95
US
DJIA 15,451.09 75.03 0.49
NASDAQ 3,774.73 52.55 1.41
Weekly Chart (MCX): Copper
Weekly Technical View: Copper
Copper future prices maintained positive trend during the
week ending to Friday and close near weekly high level. 14
Day RSI prefers the firmness and remained in neutral region
along with stochastic are favouring the bulls and moved in the
neutral region. MACD is supporting the bulls as medium term
and moving in the positive territory. Concisely, prices are likely
to trade up in the coming trading week.
Short Term Trend- Bullish
Support & Resistance:
S1 S2 PCP R1 R2
460 454 466 474 482
Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we
recommend buying at 462 levels for the target of 472/482
Stop loss below 454 levels.
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2. India - National Statistical Data
Particular Actual Previous Unit
Government Bond
10Y 8.20 8.60 Percent
Currency 62.73 63.50 Percent
Stock Market 20644.64 19781.88 Percent
Interbank Rate 12.02 11.26 Percent
GDP Growth Rate 1.30 0.80 Percent
GDP 1841.70 1872.90 Billion USD
GDP per capita 1106.80 1085.73 USD
GDP per capita
PPP 3340.60 3277.01 USD
GDP Annual
Growth Rate 4.40 4.80 Percent
Inflation Rate 6.10 5.79 Percent
Producer Prices 177.50 175.40 Index Points
Consumer Price
Index (CPI) 235 231 Index Points
Export Prices 223 196 Index Points
GDP Deflator 159.30 146.50 Index Points
Import Prices 243 215 Index Points
Money Supply M2 19124.63 19349.17 INR BIL
Money Supply M3 88356.72 87696.97 INR BIL
Weekly Chart (MCX): Natural Gas
Weekly Technical View: Natural Gas
On last week closed at weekly low level and still looking
weak. We recommend sell Natural Gas for medium term with
stop loss of 242. The immediate support appears around 225
levels breaching which the metal can reach 219 levels.
Natural Gas has strong resistance at 242 levels. Technical
indicators on daily chart has generated fresh sell signal and
indicate continues of downward movement for next week.
Short Term Trend- Bearish
Support & Resistance:
S1 S2 PCP R1 R2
225 219 231.40 237 242
Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we
recommend sell around 235 levels for the target of 235/219
and put Stop loss above 242 on closing basis levels.
Economic Round-Up
• Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan surprised markets in his maiden policy review on Friday by
raising interest rates to ward off rising inflation, while scaling back some of the emergency measures recently put in
place to support the ailing rupee. Rajan, who took office early this month amid worst economic crisis since 1991,
increased the RBI's policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.50 percent, defying most forecasts that he would leave
the rate on hold to bolster a sluggish economy. Rajan said on Friday he wants the repo rate to resume its place as the
operational policy rate as temporary rupee support measures are unwound, returning the gap between the repo rate and
the MSF rate to its customary 100 basis points.
• The Fed this week unexpectedly refrained from reducing its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases, saying it needs to
see more signs of sustained labor market gains. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Sept. 18 the central bank would
decide on whether to taper purchases based on what’s needed for the economy. The Fed will be able to weigh the
September jobs report and revisions of prior months as well as updated housing reports at its Oct. 29-30 meeting,
Bullard said in New York. “This was a very close call so maybe the information would come in a way that would change
the complexion” of the outlook, he said.
• Argentina’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in about two years last quarter, boosting the chances that holders of
securities linked to the country’s growth will be paid as much as $3 billion next year. Gross domestic product expanded
8.3 percent from a year earlier, according to a report released today by the national statistics institute. The International
Monetary Fund in February censured Argentina for failing to report accurate data on inflation and GDP. Opposition
lawmakers publish a monthly inflation report that shows consumer prices rising at more than double the 10.5 percent
rate reported by the government.
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