Komor presentation for CO 2YC Energy Workshop

1. Colorado Electricity
Past, Present, and Future
Paul Komor
University of Colorado, Boulder
komor@colorado.edu Nov. 2015

2. Electricity for Colorado
-Fuels and Trends: 1900 to 2015
-Virtual Field Trip
-Closer look: Wind and Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
-Colorado Electricity 2015-2030

3. Georgetown: Hydro/coal-
steam plant
Source: Georgetown Energy Museum

4. Colorado Electricity - Past
• 1876: Gas lights in Georgetown
• 1886: DC hydro plant in Georgetown - 100
electric street lights Christmas eve!
• 1891: AC hydro in Georgetown
• 1901: Electricity lines run to Idaho Springs,
surrounding mines
• 1924: various small electricity companies
combined into “Public Service Company of
Colorado” (now Xcel Energy)
Source: Georgetown Energy Museum

5. Colorado Electricity - Past
• 1930s and 1940s: much of rural Colorado
electrified, using loans from the Rural
Electrification Admin (REA)
• Valmont coal plant (Boulder): 1924-2017
• Cherokee coal plant (Denver):1957-2013
• Craig Station coal plant: 1979-
• Fort St. Vrain nuclear: 1979-1989

6. 6
Colorado Electricity Trends:
Growth in Natural Gas, Wind
Coal
Nat. Gas
Wind
Solar
Source: DOE/EIA

7. Coal still dominates!
This one powerplant outside Craig CO produces more
electricity than all 1400+ Colorado wind turbines.

8. Trapper mine
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor

9. Photo credit: Paul Komor

10. Trapper
mine
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor

11. Craig
Station
Photo credit: Paul Komor
Photo credit: Paul Komor

12. 12

13. Coal Mine in Colorado
Just outside Steamboat…

16. 1
6
Natural Gas for Electricity

17. Photo credit: Paul Komor

18. Photo credit: Paul Komor

19. Photo credit: Paul Komor

20. 20
Wind: 0 to 14% in 13 years
Coal
Nat. Gas
Wind
Solar
Source: DOE/EIA

21. 11

22. 22

23. Source: R. Wiser et al. 2015
Colorado ranked 8th in wind (2014)

24. 24

25. Cedar Creek Wind Project

28. Source: Wiser et al, Aug. 2015

30. Advantages of Wind
- Large resource potential
• 0 emissions, 0 fuel costs
• Low cost, competitive with fossil fuels
• Mature, reliable technology
• Strong supply chain, competitive turbine market

31. Challenges for Wind
-Geographically limited,
requires ~6+ m/s steady wind
-Variable output, no storage
-Land and visual impacts
-Transmission requirements
-Competition from solar (!)

32. 32
Solar PV: Still less than 1%,
but growing rapidly
Coal
Nat. Gas
Wind
Solar
Source: DOE/EIA

33. 60
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV)
International Space Station
Hubble Telescope
Mars Rover

34. Solar PV at Denver Airport

35. 2.3 MW PV system in Rifle CO

36. 66
Solar PV - examples
A large (3.2 MW) PV system,
next to a 900 MW nuclear power plant:

37. 37
2.8 kW rooftop PV system
Boulder, CO
Installed July 2014

38. 38
Source: Wiser et al, 2015

40. 40

41. 81
Solar PV - advantages
-Will work anywhere the sun shines
-No emissions, no moving parts
-Can be sited on rooftops
-0 fuel costs, very low operating costs
-Long lifetimes - ~20 years
-Can be sized from mW to MW
-Can work on or off the electricity grid

42. 82
Solar PV - challenges
- ~$3/watt, 19¢/kWh (lower with tax credits and rebates)
- Output varies with the sun, not dispatchable
- PV at or below ‘grid parity’ with diesel.
- PV at or (in rare cases) below ‘grid parity’ for some distributed and

43. Energy Disruptions

44. Energy Disruptions
~2010-2015
-Fracking technology (U.S., then global)
-Nuclear power accident (Japan)
-Natural gas price drops (U.S.)
-Solar photovoltaic price drops (global)
-LED lighting price drops (global)
-Oil price drops (global)

45. Energy Disruptions 2015-
2020
1) ???
2) ???
3) ???
4) ???

46. 81
What’s next for colorado
electricity?
Coal
Nat. Gas
Wind
Solar
2020
???
Source: DOE/EIA

47. Colorado’s Electricity
Future…key questions
-What happens if (when?) it’s less expensive to make your own
electricity than to buy it from Xcel (YVEA, IREA, etc.)?
-What happens if (when?) CO2 is priced or regulated?
• -What if electric cars become popular?
• -What happens when (if?) buildings are ‘zero energy’?

48. THE LONG VIEW
Source: www.eia.doe.gov48
1800-1900: Mostly Renewables (wood)
1900-2000: Mostly Fossil
2000-2100: ?

51. References
Colorado Energy Data: DOE/EIA. www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CO
Renewable technology costs and trends, policy analysis, markets (US): LBNL.
https://emp.lbl.gov/research-areas/renewable-energy
Global summary of renewables: REN 21. www.ren21.net

52. Back-up slides

53. 81
What’s next for colorado
electricity?
2020
???
Source: DOE/EIA