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Colin Price wp2 Nov 2018
The document discusses some of the economic costs of plant diseases like Phytophthora species. It notes that diseases can negatively impact economics by curtailing rotations, sterilizing productive ground, wasting tending costs, and reducing carbon storage. It also provides some hypothetical scenarios of the economic impact of disease on oak stands and uses a model called CARBBROD to evaluate the consequences of disease for timber production and carbon fixing under different conditions.
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Colin Price wp2 Nov 2018
- 1. SOME ECONOMIC COSTS OFPHYTOPHTHORAS: NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS Colin Price, free-lance academic 90 Farrar Road, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2DU United Kingdom
- 3. Disease matters economicallybecause of: curtailing rotations sterilising potentially productive ground wasting tending costs reducing carbon storage.
- 5. -80000 -60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 0 50 100150 200 NPV500(£) Rotation (years) Sitka spruce yield class 14
- 6. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 0 0.2 0.40.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Price/m3(£2016) Tree size (m3) Data Fitted Source: Forestry Commission conifer sales data
- 7. Disease matters economicallybecause of: curtailing rotations sterilising potentially productive ground wasting tending costs reducing carbon storage.
- 9. Disease matters economicallybecause of: curtailing rotations sterilising potentially productive ground wasting tending costs reducing carbon storage.
- 11. Disease matters economicallybecause of: curtailing rotations sterilising potentially productive ground wasting tending costs reducing carbon storage.
- 12. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2000 2025 20502075 2100 2125 2150 Discountedprice(£) Date AD Source: Department of Energy & Climate Change Price£pertCO2e(undiscounted)
- 13. -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 NPV500(£) DECC NEA Stern Custom price £10 Social cost ofcarbon No price Sitka spruce yield class 14, age 30, bare land follows
- 14. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 0 20 4060 80 100 Costofloss(£NPV500) Current age (years) vs business as usual Infection Sitka spruce yield class 14, bare land follows Infection at current age
- 16. -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 0 20 4060 80 100 Costofloss(£NPV500) Current age (years) vs business as usual Infection Sitka spruce yield class 14 Noble fir yield class 14 follows Infection at current age
- 17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2100 22002300 2400 2500 2600 Discountedprice(£) Date AD Goldenaeforvolatilisation Goldenageforsequestration
- 18. -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 NPV500(£) DECC NEA Stern Custom price £10 Social cost ofcarbon No price Sitka spruce yield class 14, age 70 Noble fir yield class 14 follows
- 19. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 0 20 4060 80 100 Costofloss(£NPV500) Current age (years) vs business as usual Infection Sitka spruce yield class 10 unthinned, bare land follows Infection at current age
- 20. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 0 20 4060 80 100 Costofloss(£NPV500) Current age (years) vs business as usual Infection Sitka spruce yield class 10 unthinned, infection at 30, bare land follows
- 22. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 23. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 24. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 25. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 26. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 27. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 28. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have redued increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 29. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 30. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reduced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 31. Speculative consequences ofinfection of an oak stand: 30% mortality 30% unaffected 40% have reducced increment mortality acts like a heavy thinning – material removed increment potential is redistributed to survivors, with … “unaffected” trees become increasingly dominant, so … stand increment slowly recovers, and … regeneration comes from the “unaffected” trees. Or underplanting could be attempted, with … … stand potential taken up by underplants.
- 32. Oak yield class6 Sycamore yield class 8 follows 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 NPV500(£) DECC NEA Custom price £10 Social cost of carbon No price
- 33. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 NPV500(£) DECC NEA Custom price £10 Socialcost of carbon No price Oak yield class 6 Bare land follows
- 34. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly And doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 35. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly Big numbers: £133 million/year It doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 36. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly Big numbers: £133 million/year It doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 37. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly Big numbers: £133 million/year It doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 38. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly Big numbers: £133 million/year It doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 39. VALUING LONDON’S URBAN FOREST Results of theLondon i-Tree Eco Project Major study Values everything But not perfectly Big numbers: £133 million/year It doesn’t answer the key question: What changes?
- 40. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -50 0 50100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Replacementcost(£per"site") Time lapsed (years) Without disease With disease Difference of discounted value = £1,000Fell & replace cost
- 41. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 100 200300 400 Annual(discounted)value (£/"site") Time lapsed (years) Without disease With disease Difference of discounted value = £9,419.83
- 42. Ball-park estimates forcost of disease: death of a 100-year-old tree on 10 m x 10 m plot Replacement cost £1000 Provisioning services ? Pollution abatement £750 Noise abatement ? Micro/meso-climate amelioration £1.50 Hydrological effects £17 ? Aesthetic services £1000 to £10,000 Other cultural services ? Carbon –£300 to +£150
- 43. For eachper-unit area value matrix, multiply by a matrix of probabilities and time sequences of spread and by a matrix of areas by species, yield class and age class by region. = approximately 5 PhDs.
- 45. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 46. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 47. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 48. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 49. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 50. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (spruce, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 51. REMINDER ON CARBBROD: It does not deal specifically with the economics of nursery practice, but with ... ... the effects of these practices on plantation health. It evaluates the consequences for timber prod- uction and carbon fixing of disease arising ... ... at different ages and with different consequences (death, slowed growth) ... and with different responses (modified rotation, replacement, underplanting). It is customised to treat important threatened genera (larch, ash, oak). It is flexible to different carbon pricing and discount schedules and the interaction between.
- 52. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; Simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 53. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; Simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 54. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; Simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 55. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; Simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 56. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; Simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 57. DEVELOPMENTS FOR CARBBROD: Carbon effects are dominant: (£ tens of thousands per hectare), so need to ... ... incorporate the effects of disease on litter and soil carbon, insofar as these are known; speculatively adapt for carbon effects of urban tree disease (preliminary results contradict earlier urban carbon evaluations). Also, to value landscape-scale effects of disease by methods extraneous to CARBBROD, but ... ... to explore ways of integrating results; and simplify application to scenarios of disease spread (as done, for example, with the Dothistroma work)
- 58. RELATED PUBLICATIONS: Price, C.(2017). Cost–Benefit Analysis and the Spread of Tree Diseases and Pests. Interim project report to Defra, 2017. Price, C. (2018). Declining discount rate and the social cost of carbon: forestry consequences. Journal of Forest Economics, 31, 39-45. Price, C. (2018). Stated willingness to pay for tree health protection: perceptions and realities. In Urquhart, J., Potter, C. and Marzano, M. (eds) (2018). Human Dimensions of Tree & Forest Health: Global Perspectives. Palgrave Macmillan, London, pp.235-67. Price, C. (2018). Societal costs of urban tree diseases. Scandinavian Forest Economics, 47 (2018), pp. ???. Price, C. (in prep). Considerations concerning CAVAT. For Arboricultural Journal.