WP2 Feasibility analyses and development of ‘best practice’ criteria

1. FPPH – ongoing work of relevance to Phytothreats
1
Glyn Jones, Barbara Agstner, & James Rainford
Fera Science Ltd

2. 1. Early warning system/pathways analysis
2. Industry data
3. Cost and responsibility sharing/assurance scheme
development
2

3. 3
Data Input
Compile data from
source for use in
system
Standardisation
Making the data
so that it can be
referenced in a
common way
Analysis
Making models and labelling data
to aid interpretation
Visualisation
Allowing users to select and view data and
analysis results in a way that is
informative
Decision
User takes action based on
the information presented
Import/Export data:
Commext
Exchange rate:
ECB
FERA Trade
database
Detection of Trade Warnings
(FERA generic)
?
Detection of Trade Anomalies
(Specific for plant EWS)
Development Indicators:
World Bank
Historic Interception:
Europhyt eDiag
Other indicators from
Pathways project
Local database
Predicting Risk by Country
(Random Forest/LASSO
regression)
Matching anomalies to interception
records
Dashboard app
Trade Networks
Visualising Risk
by Country
Trade Warnings
Visualising Trade Data
Anomalous Trade in Plant Products
Visualising Indicators
Plant Health Risks by Country
Tariffs: TARIC
Aubergine case study
1. Structure of the Pathways/EWS System

4. 2. Industry data
• “How much lavender do we
import?”
• National data = rubbish
• Business data - it’s complicated ……
• One company – 240k combinations
of species and specification
• Trade data is dynamic!
• But needed for
• Better system biosecurity
• Industry growth
4

5. Species source over 5 quarters
5

6. 6

7. 7

8. 8

9. 9

10. 3. Cost & responsibility
Getting estimates of biosecurity costs (Barbara’s road trip)
10

11. Dove Associates
11

12. Emergence of industry schemes over time
Mid
90s
2012 2016 2018
Legal, quality
and
environmental
standards
PH
Alliance
PHAS
UKSG
Plant
Healthy
Chalara ash dieback Xylella
British timber
Plant health focus
(link to previous schemes)
Don’t risk it

13. 1st November 2018
Plant health in the
supply chain
Standards and assurance
Slides from HTA and Grown in Britain – not for distribution